{
  "band": {
    "display": "5",
    "estimand": "definition of 'near the national swing'",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "half-width of the band around the national swing",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 5,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "bin_width": {
    "display": "2",
    "estimand": "bin width",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "width of a bin in the distribution figure",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 2,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "corr1_1896": {
    "display": "0.33",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between county margins in the pair's two elections",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1892 to 1896",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.33416,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "corr1_1964": {
    "display": "0.51",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between county margins in the pair's two elections",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1960 to 1964",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.514035,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "corr1_1976": {
    "display": "0.51",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between county margins in the pair's two elections",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972 to 1976",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.51049,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "corr1_2012": {
    "display": "0.99",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between county margins in the pair's two elections",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2008 to 2012",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.989076,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "corr1_2016": {
    "display": "0.96",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between county margins in the pair's two elections",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.957931,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "corr1_latest": {
    "display": "0.99",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between county margins in the pair's two elections",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.991657,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "corr4_1988": {
    "display": "0.85",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between county margins four elections apart",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972 to 1988",
    "population": "counties with returns in 1972 and 1988",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.847012,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "corr4_latest": {
    "display": "0.90",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between county margins four elections apart",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2008 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in 2008 and 2024",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.900433,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "corr_cut": {
    "display": "0.9",
    "estimand": "threshold on the vote-weighted correlation",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "threshold for counting pairs",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.9,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "counties_within_1928": {
    "display": "8.5%",
    "estimand": "share of counties whose swing is within the band of the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1924 to 1928",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of matched counties",
    "value": 8.49822,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "counties_within_1976": {
    "display": "21.2%",
    "estimand": "share of counties whose swing is within the band of the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972 to 1976",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of matched counties",
    "value": 21.2219,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "counties_within_2012": {
    "display": "58.8%",
    "estimand": "share of counties whose swing is within the band of the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2008 to 2012",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of matched counties",
    "value": 58.8311,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "counties_within_latest": {
    "display": "75.6%",
    "estimand": "share of counties whose swing is within the band of the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of matched counties",
    "value": 75.5706,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "counties_within_mean_latest": {
    "display": "86.3%",
    "estimand": "share of counties within the band of the vote-weighted mean county swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of matched counties",
    "value": 86.3388,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "cov_first": {
    "display": "91.7%",
    "estimand": "share of two-party votes cast in matched counties",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868 to 1872",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of the later election's two-party votes",
    "value": 91.6881,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "cov_min": {
    "display": "97.7%",
    "estimand": "lowest share of two-party votes cast in matched counties, pairs after 1868 to 1872",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1872 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of the later election's two-party votes",
    "value": 97.7405,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "cut": {
    "display": "10",
    "estimand": "threshold on the vote-weighted standard deviation",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "threshold for counting pairs",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 10,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "cut_hi": {
    "display": "12",
    "estimand": "threshold on the vote-weighted standard deviation",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "alternative threshold for counting pairs",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 12,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "cut_lo": {
    "display": "8",
    "estimand": "threshold on the vote-weighted standard deviation",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "alternative threshold for counting pairs",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 8,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "dist_lim": {
    "display": "60",
    "estimand": "half-width of the plotted range",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "range of the bins in the distribution figure",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 60,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "jack_gap_max": {
    "display": "0.7",
    "estimand": "largest difference between the vote-weighted standard deviations of the two pairs over the leave-one-state-out runs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2008 to 2012 and 2020 to 2024",
    "population": "matched counties with one state or the District of Columbia left out at a time",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 0.706924,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "jack_gap_min": {
    "display": "0.3",
    "estimand": "smallest difference between the vote-weighted standard deviations of the two pairs over the leave-one-state-out runs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2008 to 2012 and 2020 to 2024",
    "population": "matched counties with one state or the District of Columbia left out at a time",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 0.322349,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "mean_swing_latest": {
    "display": "−4.8",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swings",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "change in the two-party margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -4.82765,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "n_corr_early_above": {
    "display": "3",
    "estimand": "count of pairs whose vote-weighted correlation with the previous election exceeds the threshold",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868 to 1984",
    "population": "pairs ending in 1984 or earlier",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 3,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_early": {
    "display": "29",
    "estimand": "count of pairs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868 to 1984",
    "population": "pairs ending in 1984 or earlier",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 29,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_early_above": {
    "display": "28",
    "estimand": "count of pairs with a vote-weighted standard deviation above the threshold",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868 to 1984",
    "population": "pairs ending in 1984 or earlier",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 28,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_early_above_hi": {
    "display": "22",
    "estimand": "count of pairs with a vote-weighted standard deviation above the alternative threshold",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868 to 1984",
    "population": "pairs ending in 1984 or earlier",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 22,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_early_above_lo": {
    "display": "28",
    "estimand": "count of pairs with a vote-weighted standard deviation above the alternative threshold",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868 to 1984",
    "population": "pairs ending in 1984 or earlier",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 28,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_elections": {
    "display": "40",
    "estimand": "count of elections",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "counties with returns, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "presidential elections",
    "value": 40,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_id_1912": {
    "display": "27",
    "estimand": "count of rows dropped before any calculation because no total vote count is reported",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1912",
    "population": "Idaho counties in 1912",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 27,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_late": {
    "display": "10",
    "estimand": "count of pairs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1984 to 2024",
    "population": "pairs ending in 1988 or later",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 10,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_late_below": {
    "display": "9",
    "estimand": "count of pairs with a vote-weighted standard deviation below the threshold",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1984 to 2024",
    "population": "pairs ending in 1988 or later",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 9,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_late_below_hi": {
    "display": "10",
    "estimand": "count of pairs with a vote-weighted standard deviation below the alternative threshold",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1984 to 2024",
    "population": "pairs ending in 1988 or later",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 10,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_late_below_lo": {
    "display": "9",
    "estimand": "count of pairs with a vote-weighted standard deviation below the alternative threshold",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1984 to 2024",
    "population": "pairs ending in 1988 or later",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 9,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_late_rise": {
    "display": "4",
    "estimand": "count of pairs whose vote-weighted standard deviation is higher than the previous pair's",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1984 to 2024",
    "population": "pairs ending in 1988 or later",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 4,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_matched_first": {
    "display": "1,687",
    "estimand": "count of counties matched on FIPS",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868 to 1872",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 1687,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_matched_latest": {
    "display": "3,111",
    "estimand": "count of counties matched on FIPS",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 3111,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_measures": {
    "display": "10",
    "estimand": "count of spread measures (five definitions, vote-weighted and county-equal)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "pairs of consecutive presidential elections",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "versions of the spread",
    "value": 10,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_no_total": {
    "display": "53",
    "estimand": "count of rows dropped before any calculation",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "county rows with Democratic and Republican votes and no total vote count",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county rows",
    "value": 53,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_pairs": {
    "display": "39",
    "estimand": "count of pairs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "counties with returns, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs of consecutive presidential elections",
    "value": 39,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_panel": {
    "display": "1,652",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the fixed panel",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 1652,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_pre": {
    "display": "18",
    "estimand": "count of pairs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868 to 1940",
    "population": "pairs ending in 1940 or earlier",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 18,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_rest_wider_pre": {
    "display": "10",
    "estimand": "count of pairs in which the rest of the country's spread exceeds the South's",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868 to 1940",
    "population": "pairs ending in 1940 or earlier",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 10,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_south_run": {
    "display": "13",
    "estimand": "count of consecutive pairs in which the South's spread exceeds the rest of the country's",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1940-1992",
    "population": "pairs from 1940 to 1944 through 1988 to 1992",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 13,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_top10_shaded": {
    "display": "7",
    "estimand": "count of those pairs that are Reconstruction pairs or include a strong third-party election",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "the ten pairs with the largest vote-weighted standard deviation",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 7,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_u_larger": {
    "display": "35",
    "estimand": "count of pairs where the county-equal standard deviation exceeds the vote-weighted one",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "pairs of consecutive presidential elections",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs",
    "value": 35,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "naive_wrong_c_1976": {
    "display": "50.9%",
    "estimand": "share of counties whose two-party winner differs from the earlier election's winner",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972 to 1976",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of matched counties",
    "value": 50.9325,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "naive_wrong_c_latest": {
    "display": "2.8%",
    "estimand": "share of counties whose two-party winner differs from the earlier election's winner",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of matched counties",
    "value": 2.79653,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "naive_wrong_n_1976": {
    "display": "1,584",
    "estimand": "count of counties whose two-party winner differs from the earlier election's winner",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972 to 1976",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 1584,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "naive_wrong_n_latest": {
    "display": "87",
    "estimand": "count of counties whose two-party winner differs from the earlier election's winner",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 87,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "nat_swing_latest": {
    "display": "−6.1",
    "estimand": "change in the summed two-party margin of matched counties",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "change in the two-party margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -6.09671,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "no_total_max_shift": {
    "display": "0.12",
    "estimand": "largest change in any pair's vote-weighted standard deviation when the rows with no total_votes are kept",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 0.116664,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "ref_gap_latest": {
    "display": "−1.3",
    "estimand": "national swing minus the vote-weighted mean of county swings",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -1.26906,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "rel_median_latest": {
    "display": "+1.8",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted median of county swings minus the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of the two-party margin, relative to the national swing",
    "value": 1.76481,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "rest_gap_1996": {
    "display": "1.7",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation within the rest of the country minus that within the South",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1992 to 1996",
    "population": "counties in the Census South region and outside it",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 1.66386,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "rest_sd_1964": {
    "display": "11.4",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings within the region",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1960 to 1964",
    "population": "counties outside the Census South region",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 11.4418,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "rest_sd_1976": {
    "display": "9.7",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings within the region",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972 to 1976",
    "population": "counties outside the Census South region",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 9.66224,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "rest_sd_latest": {
    "display": "4.5",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings within the region",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties outside the Census South region",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 4.50442,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "rise_2016": {
    "display": "5.8",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation in 2012 to 2016 minus that in 2008 to 2012",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2008 to 2012 and 2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 5.83728,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "robust_gap_min": {
    "display": "0.21",
    "estimand": "smallest difference, over the ten versions, between the next lowest pair's value and the 2020 to 2024 value",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024 and the next lowest pair",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 0.212866,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "sd_u_2020": {
    "display": "5.2",
    "estimand": "county-equal standard deviation of county swings",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 5.18891,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "sd_u_gap": {
    "display": "1.8",
    "estimand": "county-equal standard deviation in 2016 to 2020 minus that in 2020 to 2024",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 and 2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 1.82537,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "sd_u_latest": {
    "display": "3.4",
    "estimand": "county-equal standard deviation of county swings",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 3.36354,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "sd_w_1896": {
    "display": "39.0",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings about their weighted mean",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1892 to 1896",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 39.0278,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "sd_w_1944": {
    "display": "6.4",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings about their weighted mean",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1940 to 1944",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 6.43629,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "sd_w_2012": {
    "display": "5.0",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings about their weighted mean",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2008 to 2012",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 4.97272,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "sd_w_2016": {
    "display": "10.8",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings about their weighted mean",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 10.81,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "sd_w_2020": {
    "display": "5.7",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings about their weighted mean",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 5.70082,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "sd_w_gap_latest": {
    "display": "0.5",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation in 2008 to 2012 minus that in 2020 to 2024",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2008 to 2012 and 2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 0.505181,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "sd_w_late_max": {
    "display": "7.9",
    "estimand": "highest vote-weighted standard deviation among the pairs ending in 1988 or later that fall below the threshold",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1984 to 2024",
    "population": "pairs ending in 1988 or later with a standard deviation below the threshold",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 7.85854,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "sd_w_latest": {
    "display": "4.5",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings about their weighted mean",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 4.46754,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "small_floor": {
    "display": "1,000",
    "estimand": "definition of a small county",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "floor for the small-county check, applied in both elections of a pair",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "two-party votes",
    "value": 1000,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "south_above_1976": {
    "display": "93.5%",
    "estimand": "share of counties that swung 5 or more points more toward the Democrats than the nation",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972 to 1976",
    "population": "counties in the Census South region",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of counties in the Census South region",
    "value": 93.5302,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "south_gap_1988": {
    "display": "1.6",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation within the South minus that within the rest of the country",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1984 to 1988",
    "population": "counties in the Census South region and outside it",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 1.57924,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "south_gap_1992": {
    "display": "0.1",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation within the South minus that within the rest of the country",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1988 to 1992",
    "population": "counties in the Census South region and outside it",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 0.10826,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "south_offset_1976": {
    "display": "+21.9",
    "estimand": "region's summed two-party margin swing minus the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972 to 1976",
    "population": "counties in the Census South region",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "change in the two-party margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 21.9335,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "south_offset_max": {
    "display": "2.4",
    "estimand": "largest absolute value of the region's margin swing minus the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1984 to 2024",
    "population": "counties in the Census South region",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 2.4344,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "south_sd_1964": {
    "display": "33.5",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings within the region",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1960 to 1964",
    "population": "counties in the Census South region",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 33.4858,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "south_sd_1968": {
    "display": "39.2",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings within the region",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1964 to 1968",
    "population": "counties in the Census South region",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 39.1601,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "south_sd_1976": {
    "display": "20.7",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings within the region",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972 to 1976",
    "population": "counties in the Census South region",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 20.6999,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "south_sd_latest": {
    "display": "4.4",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings within the region",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties in the Census South region",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 4.40298,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "tail_votes_1896": {
    "display": "10.0%",
    "estimand": "share of votes cast in counties whose relative swing lies beyond the plotted range",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1892 to 1896",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of the later election's two-party votes",
    "value": 9.98346,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "third_cut": {
    "display": "10%",
    "estimand": "cutoff for a strong third-party vote",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "counties with returns, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of all votes cast",
    "value": 10,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "uniform_cut_1976": {
    "display": "26%",
    "estimand": "one minus the count of counties called wrong by the uniform national swing over the count called wrong by keeping the earlier winner",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972 to 1976",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent fewer counties called wrong",
    "value": 25.6944,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "uniform_cut_latest": {
    "display": "28%",
    "estimand": "one minus the count of counties called wrong by the uniform national swing over the count called wrong by keeping the earlier winner",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent fewer counties called wrong",
    "value": 27.5862,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "uniform_wrong_c_1976": {
    "display": "37.8%",
    "estimand": "share of counties whose winner differs from the winner predicted by the earlier margin plus the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972 to 1976",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of matched counties",
    "value": 37.8457,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "uniform_wrong_c_latest": {
    "display": "2.0%",
    "estimand": "share of counties whose winner differs from the winner predicted by the earlier margin plus the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of matched counties",
    "value": 2.02507,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "votes_above_latest": {
    "display": "19.8%",
    "estimand": "share of votes cast in counties that swung 5 or more points more toward the Democrats than the nation",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of the later election's two-party votes",
    "value": 19.7971,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "votes_below_latest": {
    "display": "7.1%",
    "estimand": "share of votes cast in counties that swung 5 or more points more toward the Republicans than the nation",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of the later election's two-party votes",
    "value": 7.07031,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "votes_within_1896": {
    "display": "22.7%",
    "estimand": "share of votes cast in counties whose swing is within the band of the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1892 to 1896",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of the later election's two-party votes",
    "value": 22.6821,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "votes_within_1976": {
    "display": "20.3%",
    "estimand": "share of votes cast in counties whose swing is within the band of the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972 to 1976",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of the later election's two-party votes",
    "value": 20.337,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "votes_within_2012": {
    "display": "73.3%",
    "estimand": "share of votes cast in counties whose swing is within the band of the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2008 to 2012",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of the later election's two-party votes",
    "value": 73.2563,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "votes_within_2016": {
    "display": "34.0%",
    "estimand": "share of votes cast in counties whose swing is within the band of the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of the later election's two-party votes",
    "value": 33.9675,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "votes_within_early_max": {
    "display": "62.0%",
    "estimand": "highest share of votes within the band of the national swing among pairs ending in 1984 or earlier",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1940 to 1944",
    "population": "pairs ending in 1984 or earlier",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of the later election's two-party votes",
    "value": 62.0049,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "votes_within_latest": {
    "display": "73.1%",
    "estimand": "share of votes cast in counties whose swing is within the band of the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of the later election's two-party votes",
    "value": 73.1326,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "votes_within_mean_latest": {
    "display": "80.0%",
    "estimand": "share of votes cast in counties within the band of the vote-weighted mean county swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of the later election's two-party votes",
    "value": 80.0284,
    "weights": "none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election"
  }
}