{
  "alt": "County map of the United States colored by each county's swing relative to the national swing, with a slider over {fact:n_pairs} pairs of elections from 1868 to 1872 through 2020 to 2024. In 2020 to 2024, {fact:counties_within_latest} of counties fall in the palest class, within {fact:band} points of the national swing. In 1972 to 1976 the counties of the South are mostly blue: {fact:south_above_1976} of them swung {fact:band} or more points more toward the Democrats than the nation did.",
  "caption": "In 1972 to 1976 the South is mostly blue: {fact:south_above_1976} of its counties swung {fact:band} or more points more toward the Democrats than the nation did. In 2020 to 2024, {fact:counties_within_latest} of counties are in the palest class, within {fact:band} points of the national swing. Blue means a county moved more toward the Democrats, or less toward the Republicans, than the nation did; the national swing in 2020 to 2024 was {fact:nat_swing_latest} points. Move the slider to change the pair. Each county is colored by its own change in two-party margin minus the change in the summed margin of all matched counties.",
  "data": [],
  "id": "swing_map",
  "notes": [
    "Full counts of votes: there is no sampling, so the estimates have no confidence interval.",
    "Counties are drawn on 2020 boundaries and matched across elections on FIPS code. A county with no return in one of the two elections, or whose code is absent from the 2020 map, draws as no data. Values are rounded to one decimal place, except that a county within {fact:band} points of the national swing is never rounded to the edge of the palest class, so that class holds the counties counted in the text."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election unless stated",
  "spec": {
    "fips": "fips",
    "frame": "pair",
    "frames": [
      "1868–72",
      "1872–76",
      "1876–80",
      "1880–84",
      "1884–88",
      "1888–92",
      "1892–96",
      "1896–1900",
      "1900–04",
      "1904–08",
      "1908–12",
      "1912–16",
      "1916–20",
      "1920–24",
      "1924–28",
      "1928–32",
      "1932–36",
      "1936–40",
      "1940–44",
      "1944–48",
      "1948–52",
      "1952–56",
      "1956–60",
      "1960–64",
      "1964–68",
      "1968–72",
      "1972–76",
      "1976–80",
      "1980–84",
      "1984–88",
      "1988–92",
      "1992–96",
      "1996–2000",
      "2000–04",
      "2004–08",
      "2008–12",
      "2012–16",
      "2016–20",
      "2020–24"
    ],
    "legendLabel": "County swing minus national swing (points)",
    "payload": "swing_map.json",
    "scale": {
      "domain": [
        -40,
        40
      ],
      "palette": "party",
      "type": "diverging"
    },
    "tooltipKeys": [
      "county_swing"
    ],
    "value": "relative_swing",
    "valueFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true
    }
  },
  "subtitle": "Change in each county's Democratic minus Republican margin, minus the national change, percentage points, for each of {fact:n_pairs} pairs of presidential elections",
  "title": "The share of counties within {fact:band} points of the national swing rose from {fact:counties_within_1976} in 1972 to 1976 to {fact:counties_within_latest} in 2020 to 2024",
  "type": "county-map",
  "width": "full"
}