↖︎ Vishal Singh

NYU Stern · Data Driven Decision Making

NYU Stern · Data Driven Decision Making

The Illusion of Control

Sixteen documented failures of automated systems, from a 2010 market crash to the AI agents that left their test environments in 2026, and what they have in common.

Author
AffiliationNYU Stern
Published

vishalsingh.org

Sixteen documented failures of automated systems, from a 2010 market crash to the AI agents that left their test environments in 2026, and what they have in common.

Firms hand decisions to software because it is fast and cheap. This module asks what happens when that software fails: how much damage is done before a person can step in, and which safeguards were supposed to prevent it.

The material is a set of case studies. Each one comes from a regulator’s order, a company’s own incident report or an independent investigation. Seven predate AI agents. Nine are from the last eighteen months, when software that can plan and improvise was given credentials and network access. No engineering background is needed to follow them.

45 minfor Knight Capital to lose $460 million in 2012
8.5MWindows devices crashed by one CrowdStrike file in 2024
~700AI agents that joined one attack on Hugging Face in 2026

Every case has two layers. One is a general theme that recurs across industries and decades. The other is a set of particulars that explain why it happened at this firm on that day: a reused software flag, a name collision, a benchmark nobody could solve. The particulars are worth reading, and the themes are what transfer to another firm.

01 · The argument

Three patterns recur

Almost every case fits at least one of these, and most fit two. Each pattern comes with a question a manager can ask about any automated system.

Patterns

A control existed and did not work

The safeguard was funded, documented and listed in a risk register. Nobody had checked whether it would fire, or who would act when it did.

Ask: when did this control last stop something? The answer should be a date and a log entry.

  • CrowdStrike. The validator built to catch malformed files approved one.
  • Knight Capital. The system emailed 97 warnings before the market opened. Nobody owned them.
  • OpenAI, September 2026. A monitor flagged a run, and the automatic stop did not trigger.
  • Hugging Face. Security tooling linked the signals and did not page the engineer on call.

02 · The record

Sixteen case files

Each file answers the same questions: what happened, which control existed, how it failed and what it cost. The last row separates what was particular to the episode.

Case files

Tags mark the pattern each case shows. Zillow fits none of the three: its control was never set.

03 · Part one

Automation as leverage

An automated system multiplies an error by its throughput. Knight Capital’s router turned 212 customer orders into more than four million executions before anyone could read a screen. The four mistakes behind it were ordinary: old code, a reused flag, a server missed in a manual deployment and an alert with no owner. A manual process with the same mistakes has a bad morning. An automated one lost $460 million.

A trading desk has position limits because leverage cuts both ways. Most firms deploy automation with no equivalent. The cases in this part, from the Flash Crash to the 2025 AWS outage, each had a control on paper. The useful question for any system is the largest loss it can produce before a human can intervene.

04 · Part two

Agents with credentials

From 2025 the operator inside the automated system could plan, search and improvise. Coding agents at Replit and PocketOS deleted production data against written instructions, because the instruction was the only barrier and the agent held credentials that permitted the action.

Then, between July and November 2026, a series of organisations disclosed that AI models under security testing had reached real systems. None was a deployed product. Every case began inside an evaluation or a training run.

Disclosures, July to November 2026
  1. Hugging FaceAn intrusion run end to end by an autonomous agent system. The model behind it was unknown.
  2. OpenAIIts evaluation agents had left a sandbox and attacked Hugging Face.
  3. AnthropicA review of 141,006 test runs found three cases that touched real organisations.
  4. UK AI Security Institute19 unsanctioned actions across 10 of 122 runs, one a malicious pull request.
  5. MetaA model reached the internet in a partner’s test and exploited an outside company.
  6. GoogleGemini accessed three real companies during a May test, then stopped.
  7. OpenAIA training agent tunnelled out over DNS. Training was paused a second time.
  8. WorkOSA security researcher’s test agent had pulled records from an internal tool.

Anthropic, Meta and Google had used the same evaluation partner, whose test machines had internet access that nobody intended.

05 · In depth

The Hugging Face intrusion

This is the best documented agent incident so far, with reports from the lab whose agents did it, from the victim and from an independent investigator. The agents were trying to pass a test.

OpenAI → Hugging Face · 9–13 July 2026

Recovered attacker actions per day

9 Julescape10 Julsearch11 Julbreak-in12 Julspread13 Julcut off

About 17,600 actions in total, a minimum set by what forensics could recover. Roughly two and a half of the days were inside Hugging Face itself.

What the agents reached

  • Code execution on 41 production dataset workers
  • Root on a production node and cluster-admin on two Kubernetes clusters
  • 181 device enrolments on the internal VPN
  • A GitHub token with write access; no malicious commits were found

What they took

Five datasets tied to the benchmark’s challenges and solutions. No other customer models, datasets or apps, and the main Hub database was never reached.

06 · After July

The new controls fired late or not at all

OpenAI added monitoring after the Hugging Face incident. On 20 September it partly worked. A training agent on a search task reached an outside chatbot through DNS lookups. The monitor alerted within 15 minutes and a person began review three minutes later. The automatic stop did not work, the run went on for two and a half hours, and earlier attempts by the same route had not been flagged. OpenAI then paused training of its most capable models for the second time in under three months.

The same gap appears outside the labs. At WorkOS, an agent first got into an internal tool on 25 October. An employee noticed unusual query volume five days later, after the bulk download had ended.

07 · Strategy

The harness changed behavior by a factor of 100

The harness is the software around a model: the tools it can call, its permissions, its instructions and the monitors that watch it. This section is an argument more than a record, and it is open to dispute.

100×

lower rate of attempts to compromise infrastructure when the same models ran the same benchmark under the production ChatGPT harness and system prompt.

OpenAI’s own evaluation, from the lab that had the incident. The Codex harness gave a similar result: under 1% of the baseline rate.

For buyers

How a vendor sandboxes, permissions and monitors a model tells you more about risk than which model it uses.

For builders

The harness is where the product and its intellectual property sit. In March 2026 a debugging file in a public package exposed about 512,000 lines of Claude Code’s harness. No model weights, credentials or customer data were in it.

For security teams

A vendor’s safety policy is an operational dependency. Commercial models refused much of the exploit analysis Hugging Face needed for forensics, so its team ran an open-weights model on its own hardware.

08 · Consequences

Who pays

Within four months of the Hugging Face disclosure, the cost of an agent incident began to be allocated.

Responses

EU AI Act enforcement powers took effect on 2 August 2026. By October the Commission said it had taken its first enforcement actions: the AI Office sent model providers requests for information on security, outside evaluation and monitoring. Fines on model providers can reach 3% of worldwide turnover.

Source: European Commission speech, Dublin, 14 October 2026.

09 · Action

Six controls, each tied to a case

These are governance decisions about budgets and authority. If a firm can fund only one, the first has the strongest case behind it.

1External hard limits

Position, spend and rate caps and a kill switch that the automated system cannot change.

Knight · Zillow · Flash Crash

2Permissions in infrastructure

Scoped credentials, separate production, and confirmation for destructive calls.

Replit · PocketOS · Kiro

3Assume the sandbox leaks

Default-deny network egress at two independent layers, DNS included, tested before each run.

OpenAI · Anthropic · Google

4Scheduled control tests

Record the date each control last fired. Drill automatic stops and paging.

CrowdStrike · OpenAI in September

5Independent detection

Logs and alerts the monitored system cannot write to, with a named person on call.

Hugging Face · WorkOS · Replit

6One release process

Staged rollout and artifact inspection for code, content, configuration and packages.

CrowdStrike · Claude Code · AWS

10 · Debrief

Discussion questions

1Knight’s system sent 97 warnings before the market opened, and nobody owned them. Which alerts in your organisation have no owner?

2Several agents recorded that an action was out of scope and then took it. If a system can state the rule and still break it, what is your control?

3A vendor’s agent holds your production credentials. Which actions can it take without a second approval, and who would notice within an hour?

4Rank three risks for your firm: a 45-minute trading loss, a 78-minute global outage, a five-day undetected agent in your CRM. Which control do you fund first?

Reference

Terms

Control
Any safeguard meant to stop or limit a failure: a position limit, a review step, an alert, a kill switch.
Automation
Software that acts without a person approving each step, such as an order router or an update system.
AI agent
An AI model that plans and carries out multi-step tasks by running commands, calling tools and using credentials.
Harness
The software around a model: its tools, permissions, instructions and monitors.
Sandbox
A sealed test environment that is supposed to have no route to real systems or the internet.
Evaluation
A test of what a model can do. In the 2026 cases, labs were testing whether models could find and exploit security flaws.

Sources

Primary documents where they exist. Estimates and single-party accounts are marked in the case file that uses them.

Regulators and courts

Company reports

Independent and press