Chapter 3.2 · The toll booth

College access, price and earnings

A decade after entry, the median former student who received federal aid earned $28,330 at the median for-profit college and $42,014 at the median public college, and the average resident of a county in the most deprived tenth lives 29.3 miles from the nearest four-year college, against 6.1 miles in the least deprived tenth.

Author: Vishal Singh
Affiliation: NYU Stern
Published: 9 October 2026

A decade after entering, the median former student who had received federal aid earned $28,330 at the median for-profit college, $42,014 at the median public college and $53,848 at the median private nonprofit college. Each figure is the middle value across the colleges of a sector, where a college's own value is the median earnings of its former students in 2022 dollars. The students entered in 2009 to 2010 and 2010 to 2011 and were observed in 2020 and 2021. The College Scorecard covers institutions that take part in federal student aid programs, and it lists 5,000 of them in the states and the District of Columbia once the 1,275 branch records that repeat a parent institution's earnings are set aside, and 3,963 of them have a published earnings value.

Three features of a college matter to a family, which are what its former students earn, what it bills and whether it is within reach. This chapter takes them in that order, with the institution as the unit for earnings and price and the county as the unit for reach. Chetty and co-authors, who linked tax records to the colleges students attended, found that parental income is as segregated across colleges as it is across neighborhoods, that elite colleges serve mostly students from high-income families, and that earnings differences between students from low-income and high-income families shrink considerably among students who attend the same college.[1] An earlier report from the same project named the City University of New York and the California State campuses among the colleges where students from the bottom fifth of the income distribution most often reached the top fifth.[2] The data here are the College Scorecard for earnings and price and the IPEDS directory for the location of campuses. They describe colleges and counties, and a pattern across colleges is not a statement about what a college does for a student.

For-profit colleges have the lowest median earnings

The median across the 1,036 for-profit colleges with a published value is $28,330 (95% CI $26,877 to $29,972), against $42,014 (95% CI $40,606 to $43,598) across 1,716 public colleges and $53,848 (95% CI $51,671 to $55,838) across 1,211 private nonprofit colleges. The for-profit median is $13,685 (95% CI $12,287 to $15,220) below the public median, and the private nonprofit median is above both (Figure 1). The intervals come from a bootstrap that redraws whole states, because the colleges of a state share appropriations, labor markets and aid rules.

The sectors differ in what they offer. For-profit colleges run more short programs, so a comparison of all colleges could reflect the mix of programs. Among four-year colleges alone the public median is $10,738 (95% CI $8,300 to $13,249) above the for-profit median, and among two-year and shorter programs it is $11,884 (95% CI $10,591 to $13,240) above. Weighting each college by its undergraduates, which counts a large college in proportion to its students, gives a gap of $10,924 (95% CI $7,972 to $12,851). The order of the sectors holds in each of these cuts.

The sectors also differ in who enrolls. The median share of undergraduates who received a Pell Grant in academic year 2021 to 2022, a federal grant for students with financial need, is 52.5% (95% CI 50.4% to 54.6%) at for-profit colleges, 30.4% (95% CI 28.3% to 32.9%) at public colleges and 32.4% (95% CI 30.1% to 34.6%) at private nonprofit colleges. Deming, Goldin and Katz compared beginning students at for-profit colleges with comparable students at other colleges in a national survey, adjusting for observed characteristics, and found lower earnings after entry and higher loan default rates among the for-profit students.[3] The Scorecard figures point the same way a decade after entry, but they do not adjust for who enrolls, so they cannot separate what a college does from whom it enrolls.

The medians describe the colleges that report. Earnings are withheld when the group of aided students is small or the value fails the Scorecard's checks, and the share of colleges with no published value is 4.7% of public colleges, 26.5% of private nonprofit colleges and 33.2% of for-profit colleges. A withheld value is missing and not zero, and if the colleges without a value earn systematically more or less than those with one, the sector medians move.

Figure 1

At the median for-profit college, former students' median earnings a decade after entry were $28,330, against $42,014 at the median public college and $53,848 at the median private nonprofit college

Distribution across colleges of the median earnings of former students who received federal aid, a decade after entry (thousands of 2022 dollars), by sector; entering classes of 2009 to 2010 and 2010 to 2011

Show data

Data for At the median for-profit college, former students' median earnings a decade after entry were $28,330, against $42,014 at the median public college and $53,848 at the median private nonprofit college
density	earnings	scope	sector	weighting
0	0	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	1	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	2	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	3	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	4	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	5	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	6	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	7	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	8	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	9	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	10	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
1	11	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
1	12	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	13	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
3	14	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
4	15	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
5	16	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
6	17	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
8	18	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
10	19	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
13	20	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
17	21	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
21	22	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
27	23	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
35	24	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
49	25	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
71	26	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
104	27	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
152	28	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
217	29	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
297	30	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
389	31	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
490	32	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
594	33	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
695	34	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
788	35	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
870	36	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
935	37	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
979	38	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
1000	39	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
996	40	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
970	41	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
925	42	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
868	43	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
805	44	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
741	45	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
681	46	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
625	47	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
573	48	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
524	49	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
477	50	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
433	51	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
393	52	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
360	53	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
333	54	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
310	55	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
289	56	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
266	57	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
242	58	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
218	59	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
196	60	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
178	61	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
162	62	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
148	63	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
132	64	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
117	65	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
102	66	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
90	67	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
80	68	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
73	69	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
68	70	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
64	71	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
60	72	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
57	73	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
53	74	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
48	75	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
44	76	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
40	77	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
36	78	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
33	79	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
31	80	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
30	81	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
28	82	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
25	83	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
22	84	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
19	85	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
17	86	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
17	87	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
17	88	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
19	89	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
20	90	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
20	91	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
20	92	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
18	93	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
16	94	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
13	95	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
11	96	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
8	97	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
7	98	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
5	99	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
5	100	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
5	101	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
4	102	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
4	103	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
3	104	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	105	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	106	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	107	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	108	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	109	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	110	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	111	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	112	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	113	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	114	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	115	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	116	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	117	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
1	118	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
1	119	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	120	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	0	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	1	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	2	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	3	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	4	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	5	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	6	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	7	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	8	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	9	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	10	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	11	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
1	12	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
3	13	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
6	14	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
11	15	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
17	16	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
26	17	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
37	18	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
49	19	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
63	20	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
78	21	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
93	22	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
108	23	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
121	24	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
132	25	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
143	26	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
155	27	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
170	28	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
192	29	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
219	30	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
252	31	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
289	32	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
328	33	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
368	34	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
407	35	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
445	36	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
484	37	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
524	38	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
565	39	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
607	40	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
649	41	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
689	42	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
729	43	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
771	44	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
816	45	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
862	46	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
903	47	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
934	48	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
954	49	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
968	50	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
980	51	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
992	52	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
1000	53	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
999	54	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
985	55	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
960	56	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
930	57	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
896	58	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
856	59	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
808	60	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
752	61	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
690	62	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
629	63	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
572	64	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
523	65	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
484	66	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
455	67	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
434	68	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
417	69	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
402	70	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
385	71	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
366	72	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
349	73	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
333	74	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
320	75	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
306	76	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
289	77	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
268	78	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
243	79	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
219	80	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
199	81	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
184	82	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
175	83	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
169	84	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
163	85	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
157	86	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
150	87	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
143	88	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
134	89	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
122	90	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
108	91	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
92	92	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
77	93	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
62	94	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
51	95	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
45	96	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
42	97	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
44	98	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
48	99	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
54	100	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
59	101	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
61	102	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
59	103	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
54	104	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
47	105	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
39	106	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
33	107	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
29	108	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
27	109	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
25	110	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
23	111	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
20	112	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
16	113	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
12	114	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
10	115	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
8	116	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
8	117	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
8	118	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
10	119	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
12	120	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	0	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
0	1	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
0	2	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
0	3	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
1	4	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
2	5	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
4	6	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
7	7	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
11	8	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
18	9	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
29	10	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
46	11	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
73	12	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
114	13	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
170	14	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
242	15	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
324	16	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
412	17	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
502	18	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
593	19	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
686	20	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
779	21	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
866	22	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
936	23	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
982	24	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
1000	25	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
992	26	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
963	27	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
921	28	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
872	29	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
816	30	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
756	31	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
691	32	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
626	33	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
566	34	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
516	35	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
476	36	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
443	37	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
414	38	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
388	39	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
360	40	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
331	41	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
299	42	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
265	43	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
232	44	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
202	45	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
177	46	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
156	47	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
141	48	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
130	49	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
122	50	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
114	51	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
105	52	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
95	53	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
83	54	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
72	55	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
63	56	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
59	57	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
58	58	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
58	59	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
60	60	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
60	61	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
59	62	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
56	63	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
52	64	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
48	65	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
45	66	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
43	67	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
40	68	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
37	69	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
32	70	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
27	71	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
23	72	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
20	73	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
18	74	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
18	75	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
18	76	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
19	77	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
20	78	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
22	79	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
21	80	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
20	81	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
17	82	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
14	83	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
12	84	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
11	85	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
11	86	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
10	87	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
10	88	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
9	89	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
8	90	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
7	91	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
8	92	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
8	93	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
7	94	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
7	95	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
6	96	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
5	97	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
5	98	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
5	99	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
5	100	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
6	101	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
7	102	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
9	103	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
10	104	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
11	105	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
10	106	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
9	107	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
7	108	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
5	109	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
4	110	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
3	111	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
3	112	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
3	113	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
3	114	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
3	115	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
3	116	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
2	117	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
1	118	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
1	119	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
0	120	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
0	0	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	1	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	2	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	3	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	4	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	5	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	6	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	7	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	8	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	9	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	10	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	11	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	12	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	13	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	14	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	15	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	16	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
0	17	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
1	18	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
1	19	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
1	20	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
2	21	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
2	22	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
3	23	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
5	24	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
9	25	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
15	26	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
26	27	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
43	28	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
69	29	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
104	30	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
152	31	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
213	32	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
289	33	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
380	34	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
483	35	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
594	36	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
703	37	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
806	38	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
893	39	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
960	40	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
998	41	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
1000	42	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
967	43	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
905	44	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
830	45	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
754	46	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
688	47	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
634	48	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
593	49	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
563	50	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
545	51	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
540	52	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
546	53	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
562	54	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
581	55	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
596	56	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
602	57	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
597	58	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
586	59	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
574	60	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
562	61	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
545	62	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
518	63	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
476	64	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
424	65	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
372	66	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
328	67	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
298	68	All colleges	Public	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
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0	0	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Weighted by undergraduate enrollment
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Showing the first 500 of 1452 rows.

The for-profit ridge sits left of the public and private nonprofit ridges, and the private nonprofit ridge reaches furthest right. Each ridge is a smoothed density of college medians scaled to its own peak, so height shows shape and not the number of colleges; the sector medians in the title count each college once, and their 95% intervals, from a bootstrap over states, are in the text.Note: Earnings are the median for students who received federal aid and were working and not enrolled a decade after entry. They are in 2022 dollars, and the Scorecard adds noise to them and withholds them for small groups, so a college with no published value is missing, never zero. Densities use one smoothing bandwidth for every ridge and run from zero to a ceiling; a few colleges above the ceiling are outside the plot.Note: Colleges are institutions identified by a 6-digit OPE ID. Branch campuses repeat their parent's earnings, so one row per OPE ID is used, and 5,000 institutions are in the file in the 50 states and DC. Earnings are published for 3,963 of them, and the share with no value is 4.7% of public, 26.5% of private nonprofit and 33.2% of for-profit colleges.Note: The medians describe colleges and the students who received federal aid, and they mix what a college does with who enrolls and where it sits.Source: College Scorecard, most recent cohorts, May 2025 release (earnings of the 2009-2011 entering classes, 2022 dollars); unweighted unless the view says weighted by undergraduate enrollment

For academic year 2021 to 2022, in nominal dollars, the Scorecard reports each college's average net price, which is the cost of attendance minus grants and scholarships, for full-time, first-time students who received federal aid, in five bands of family income. The lowest band ends at $30,000 and the highest begins above $110,000. At the median public four-year college the net price was $9,347 (95% CI $8,426 to $10,430) a year in the lowest band and $18,780 (95% CI $17,910 to $19,987) in the highest. At the median private nonprofit four-year college it was $17,596 (95% CI $16,937 to $18,307) and $28,710 (95% CI $26,953 to $30,525). The medians cover 694 public and 1,157 private nonprofit colleges with a published price (Figure 2). The schedule is progressive in dollars, since prices rise with income at both kinds of college.

A price means more against an income. Dividing each median by an assumed family income at the midpoint of its band, $15,000 in the lowest band and $150,000 in the highest, the public net price is 62% (95% CI 56% to 70%) of the assumed income in the lowest band and 13% (95% CI 12% to 13%) in the highest. The private nonprofit net price is 117% (95% CI 113% to 122%) and 19% (95% CI 18% to 20%). Measured this way the schedule is regressive. The fall is steep at the start. The step from the lowest band to the second band carries 73% (95% CI 71% to 74%) of the whole fall at public colleges and 72% (95% CI 71% to 73%) at private nonprofit colleges, and the share changes slowly after that.

The share is an order of magnitude and not a measured burden. The cost of attendance includes living expenses that a family bears whether or not the student enrolls, the Scorecard does not report the incomes of the families in a band, and the highest band has no upper limit. A private nonprofit net price above the assumed income in the lowest band shows the limits of the assumption as much as it shows a burden. The contrast between the ends does not depend on the highest midpoint. With the income of the highest band set at its lower limit, the smallest a family in it can have, the public share is 17% (95% CI 16% to 18%) and the private nonprofit share 26% (95% CI 25% to 28%), still far below the shares in the lowest band.

Figure 2

The median net price rises with family income, but at public four-year colleges it falls from 62% of an assumed income in the lowest band to 13% in the highest

Median across colleges of the average net price after grants for full-time, first-time students who received federal aid, by family-income band, public and private nonprofit four-year colleges, academic year 2021 to 2022

Median net price (dollars per year)

Show data

Data for The median net price rises with family income, but at public four-year colleges it falls from 62% of an assumed income in the lowest band to 13% in the highest
band	hi	lo	measure	n	sector	value
1	10430	8426	Median net price (dollars per year)	693	Public four-year colleges	9347
1	69.50	56.20	Net price as a share of assumed income (percent)	693	Public four-year colleges	62.30
2	11263	9449	Median net price (dollars per year)	685	Public four-year colleges	10114
2	28.90	24.20	Net price as a share of assumed income (percent)	685	Public four-year colleges	25.90
3	14074	12130	Median net price (dollars per year)	687	Public four-year colleges	12857
3	22.90	19.70	Net price as a share of assumed income (percent)	687	Public four-year colleges	20.90
4	18000	16056	Median net price (dollars per year)	670	Public four-year colleges	16974
4	19.50	17.40	Net price as a share of assumed income (percent)	670	Public four-year colleges	18.40
5	19987	17910	Median net price (dollars per year)	647	Public four-year colleges	18780
5	13.30	11.90	Net price as a share of assumed income (percent)	647	Public four-year colleges	12.50
1	18307	16937	Median net price (dollars per year)	1,120	Private nonprofit four-year colleges	17596
1	122	112.9	Net price as a share of assumed income (percent)	1,120	Private nonprofit four-year colleges	117.3
2	18742	17413	Median net price (dollars per year)	1,092	Private nonprofit four-year colleges	18166
2	48.10	44.60	Net price as a share of assumed income (percent)	1,092	Private nonprofit four-year colleges	46.60
3	21427	19926	Median net price (dollars per year)	1,082	Private nonprofit four-year colleges	20684
3	34.80	32.40	Net price as a share of assumed income (percent)	1,082	Private nonprofit four-year colleges	33.60
4	25256	23554	Median net price (dollars per year)	1,044	Private nonprofit four-year colleges	24314
4	27.30	25.50	Net price as a share of assumed income (percent)	1,044	Private nonprofit four-year colleges	26.30
5	30525	26953	Median net price (dollars per year)	976	Private nonprofit four-year colleges	28710
5	20.30	18	Net price as a share of assumed income (percent)	976	Private nonprofit four-year colleges	19.10

In both panels the dollar price climbs from the lowest band to the highest, while the share of assumed income drops most between the lowest band and the next (second view). Each point is the median across colleges, with a 95% interval from a bootstrap over states; the share divides the median by the midpoint of the band, $15,000 in the lowest band and $150,000 in the highest, which is an assumption.Note: Net price is the cost of attendance, which includes living expenses, minus grants and scholarships, averaged over a college's full-time, first-time students who received federal aid in the band. At public colleges it covers in-state students only. A family bears the living expenses whether or not the student enrolls, so the share of income is an order of magnitude and not a measured burden on any family.Note: The five bands are the Scorecard's, up to $30,000 of family income and over $110,000. The Scorecard does not report the income of the families in a band, so the share assumes an income at the midpoint of each band, and the highest band has no upper limit, so its share moves in proportion to the assumed value.Note: The medians cover 694 public and 1,157 private nonprofit four-year colleges with a published net price in at least one band; a few report a net price below zero, which is kept as reported.Source: College Scorecard, most recent cohorts, May 2025 release (net price by family income, academic year 2021-2022, nominal dollars); unweighted, each college counted once

Cost, earnings and completion rise together

Across the 2,663 colleges with a published cost of attendance, median earnings and at least 100 undergraduates, colleges that cost more have former students who earn more, with a correlation of +0.63 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.67). The completion rate, the share of first-time, full-time students who finish within 150% of the normal time, moves with earnings among four-year colleges, with a correlation of +0.67 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.71), and weakly among two-year and shorter programs, with a correlation of +0.12 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.21) (Figure 3). The Scorecard measures completion for students who started in fall 2016 at four-year colleges and fall 2019 at shorter programs, so the two rates are reported apart and not pooled.

One corner of the plot is different. The plot divides at the median cost of attendance, $24,602 (95% CI $22,758 to $26,688), and the median earnings, $46,092 (95% CI $44,379 to $47,866). A total of 334 colleges, 12.5% (95% CI 11.3% to 13.8%) of those plotted, cost more than the median and have median earnings at or below it. They are 56% (95% CI 48% to 62%) of the 163 plotted for-profit colleges, 20% (95% CI 18% to 23%) of the plotted private nonprofit colleges and 2% (95% CI 1% to 3%) of the plotted public colleges. The cost of attendance is published for academic-year institutions only, so many short for-profit programs are not plotted and the for-profit share describes the plotted colleges.

The colleges in that corner enroll more students from low-income families and graduate fewer of them. Their median Pell share is 47% (95% CI 42% to 51%), against 30% (95% CI 28% to 31%) in the other three quadrants, and among four-year colleges their median completion rate is 45% (95% CI 43% to 51%), against 64% (95% CI 61% to 67%) at four-year colleges that cost more than the median and earn more. These are comparisons across colleges. They do not show that a student who enrolls in one of these colleges earns less than the student would have earned elsewhere.

Figure 3

Former students of costlier colleges tend to earn more, a correlation of +0.63, but 56% of plotted for-profit colleges cost more than the median and have median earnings at or below it

Median earnings a decade after entry (2022 dollars) against the average annual cost of attendance (academic year 2021 to 2022), one dot per college, dot area is undergraduate enrollment

Loading data

Dots rise from the lower left to the upper right, and the lower-right quadrant, which costs more than the median and earns the median or less, holds 334 colleges, mostly for-profit and private nonprofit. The lines mark the medians across the plotted colleges, $24,602 for cost and $46,092 for earnings, and colors give the sector.Note: The plot has 2,663 colleges with a published cost of attendance, median earnings and at least 100 undergraduates. The cost of attendance is published for academic-year institutions only, so many short for-profit programs are not in it, and for-profit colleges are a small part of the plot.Note: The quadrant lines are medians and the intervals for the shares come from a bootstrap over states that redraws the medians in every replicate. Dollar axes mix academic year 2021 to 2022 costs with earnings in 2022 dollars, which are close in time.Source: College Scorecard, most recent cohorts, May 2025 release (cost of attendance, academic year 2021-2022; earnings of the 2009-2011 entering classes); unweighted, each college counted once

High-Pell colleges differ widely in earnings

A narrower comparison looks only at colleges that enroll many students from low-income families. The pool is the 1,282 public and private nonprofit four-year colleges with at least 1,000 undergraduates and a published Pell share, earnings and net price for the lowest income band. The 428 colleges in the top third of the pool by Pell share, a share of 34.7% or more, are the high-Pell colleges. For-profit colleges are not on the list by rule, since the sector comparison above treats them separately, and 48 for-profit four-year colleges that meet every other rule, including a net price for the lowest income band, are left out.

Median earnings among the high-Pell colleges run from $38,184 at the tenth percentile to $62,278 at the ninetieth. The 15 highest-earning have a median of $72,282 and the 15 lowest-earning a median of $31,902 (Figure 4). The two lists do not have the same Pell share: the median is 39% in the highest-earning list and 60% in the lowest-earning list, so part of the difference in earnings may reflect the starting point of the students. Baruch College of the City University of New York is in the first list, with a Pell share of 55%, a net price of $745 for students in the lowest income band and median earnings of $75,971.

Place matters for the ranking, since 8 of the 10 highest-earning high-Pell colleges are in California or New York and earnings in these data are not adjusted for local wages. Of the 15 lowest-earning colleges, 5 are tribal colleges or religious seminaries, namely Oglala Lakota College, Navajo Technical University, Dine College, United Talmudical Seminary and Uta Mesivta of Kiryas Joel, and 6 are historically Black colleges and universities, namely Harris-Stowe State University, Benedict College, Mississippi Valley State University, Miles College, Langston University and Central State University. The students and local labor markets of the first group differ from those of general four-year colleges, so their earnings are not comparable with those of a general four-year degree, and the measure adjusts neither for local wages nor for the starting income of the students at any of them. Net price does not separate the lists, since the median net price for the lowest income band is $9,743 at the highest-earning colleges and $10,626 at the lowest-earning ones.

Figure 4

Among high-Pell colleges, the 15 highest-earning have a median of $72,282 a decade after entry and the 15 lowest-earning $31,902

Public and private nonprofit four-year colleges in the top third by Pell share, with at least 1,000 undergraduates; median earnings of former students who received federal aid and net price for the lowest income band

Most of the highest-earning high-Pell colleges are in California, New York and New Jersey

Median earnings of former students who received federal aid a decade after entry (2022 dollars), the 15 highest-earning and the 15 lowest-earning high-Pell colleges

Highest-earning
Lowest-earning

Each dot is one college's median, with the highest-earning college at the top; the name gives the college and its state.

Show data

Data for Among high-Pell colleges, the 15 highest-earning have a median of $72,282 a decade after entry and the 15 lowest-earning $31,902, Median earnings
College	List	Median earnings (2022 dollars)	Pell share (%)	Net price, lowest income band (dollars)
New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJ)	Highest-earning	$84,276	39.0	$11,534
University of California-Irvine (CA)	Highest-earning	$80,735	37.3	$6,485
San Jose State University (CA)	Highest-earning	$78,988	35.4	$9,743
CUNY Bernard M Baruch College (NY)	Highest-earning	$75,971	55.3	$745
Stony Brook University (NY)	Highest-earning	$74,502	38.4	$12,744
University of Redlands (CA)	Highest-earning	$72,690	35.1	$21,520
Mount Saint Mary's University (CA)	Highest-earning	$72,379	55.1	$17,327
AdventHealth University (FL)	Highest-earning	$72,282	37.4	$29,906
California State Polytechnic University-Pomona (CA)	Highest-earning	$71,902	46.0	$7,599
California State University-East Bay (CA)	Highest-earning	$71,401	43.6	$8,059
New York Institute of Technology (NY)	Highest-earning	$70,080	43.7	$16,548
Farmingdale State College (NY)	Highest-earning	$69,781	35.8	$3,865
University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth (MA)	Highest-earning	$68,804	35.6	$14,122
University of Illinois Chicago (IL)	Highest-earning	$68,740	49.6	$9,257
San Francisco State University (CA)	Highest-earning	$68,077	41.4	$9,307
Laredo College (TX)	Lowest-earning	$33,934	38.5	$4,877
Central State University (OH)	Lowest-earning	$33,267	42.2	$15,607
Langston University (OK)	Lowest-earning	$33,261	68.4	$10,626
Atlanta Metropolitan State College (GA)	Lowest-earning	$33,252	53.8	$4,415
Miles College (AL)	Lowest-earning	$32,627	75.5	$13,517
Bryant & Stratton College-Online (NY)	Lowest-earning	$32,568	75.2	$14,685
Mississippi Valley State University (MS)	Lowest-earning	$31,919	59.6	$11,034
Benedict College (SC)	Lowest-earning	$31,902	63.5	$16,807
Uta Mesivta of Kiryas Joel (NY)	Lowest-earning	$31,853	86.2	$4,542
Harris-Stowe State University (MO)	Lowest-earning	$31,088	72.9	$12,412
Dine College (AZ)	Lowest-earning	$29,188	39.0	$10,031
American Musical and Dramatic Academy (NY)	Lowest-earning	$26,975	36.0	$25,066
Navajo Technical University (NM)	Lowest-earning	$26,364	49.0	$3,037
United Talmudical Seminary (NY)	Lowest-earning	$25,113	85.6	$6,126
Oglala Lakota College (SD)	Lowest-earning	$22,517	46.9	$2,188

The highest-earning high-Pell colleges are at the top of the first tab, the lowest-earning at the bottom, and the second tab gives the net price that students in the lowest income band paid at the same colleges. The lists are the 15 highest and lowest of the 428 high-Pell colleges in the pool.Note: For-profit colleges are not on the list. Only public and private nonprofit colleges enter the pool, so no for-profit college can appear in either list, and 48 for-profit four-year colleges that otherwise met the rules were left out. A college is high-Pell when its Pell share reaches 34.7%, the cutoff for the top third of the pool of 1,282 colleges.Note: The lists are rankings of named colleges and not samples, so their medians carry no interval, and the Scorecard adds noise to each college's earnings. Branch campuses share their parent's earnings, so each college appears once.Note: Some of the lowest-earning colleges are tribal colleges or religious seminaries whose graduates' earnings are not comparable with those of a general four-year degree, and several are historically Black colleges and universities; earnings also follow local wages, which are high in the New York, New Jersey and California areas, and the measure does not adjust for the students' starting income.Source: College Scorecard, most recent cohorts, May 2025 release (Pell share and net price, academic year 2021-2022; earnings of the 2009-2011 entering classes, 2022 dollars); unweighted, each college counted once

Most counties have no four-year college

The IPEDS directory lists 2,508 four-year campuses in the states and the District of Columbia, after leaving out the 273 institutions that grant only graduate degrees. They sit in 933 of the 3,143 counties. The other 2,210 counties, 70% of all, have no four-year campus inside the county line. Connecticut counts as its eight legacy counties.

A county line is a poor measure of reach, because a county without a campus can border one. The chapter measures instead, for each census tract, the straight-line distance in miles from the tract's central point to the nearest four-year campus, and gives each county the average of its tracts weighted by population. A county's value is the distance of its average resident, so a county with a campus inside it can still have a value above zero. The average resident in the country lives 9.6 miles from a four-year campus. Counting each county once, the median value is 21 miles, and the values run from 4.0 miles at the fifth percentile to 74 miles at the ninety-fifth (Figure 5).

The longest distances are in Alaska. Each of the 10 counties with the longest distances is in Alaska, and the average Alaskan lives 69 miles from a four-year campus. Among states the averages are next longest in Wyoming (49 miles), Montana (26 miles) and Mississippi (24 miles). Distances in Alaska and Hawaii are straight lines over water and terrain that no road covers. Measured to the nearest public four-year campus instead, the average resident lives 14.0 miles away.

Reach also shapes who applies. Hoxby and Avery found that most high-achieving students from low-income families do not apply to selective colleges, and that these students are geographically dispersed, which makes them harder to reach through recruiting concentrated in a few large metropolitan areas.[4] The map measures the supply side of that problem. It says where campuses are, not where students enroll.

Figure 5

The average resident in the country lives 9.6 miles from a four-year college, and the state averages are longest in Alaska, Wyoming, Montana and Mississippi

Distance in miles from the average resident of each county to the nearest four-year campus (great-circle, from each census tract's internal point, weighted by tract population), campuses of 2023, residents of 2019 to 2023

Loading county values

Miles from the average resident to the nearest four-year campus

No data (3,143 counties)

Select a class to show only those places.

Find a county

Hover or tap a county for its value, or search by name. Zoom with the buttons on the map, then drag to move it.

The 57 counties in the highest class of the key, 100 miles or more, are mostly in Alaska, the Great Plains and the interior West, and the counties in the lowest class are mostly metro counties. No four-year campus lies inside 2,210 of the 3,143 counties; the tooltip gives the number of campuses in each county.Note: Every county on the map has a value: each has residents, and the distance is measured to a campus in any of the 50 states or DC. Puerto Rico is not drawn and its campuses and residents are not in the data. Alaska and Hawaii distances cross water, so a county on an island or in the bush has a distance that no road or ferry covers.Note: Four-year means a campus the IPEDS directory lists at the four-year level, leaving out the 273 institutions the Scorecard classes as entirely graduate-degree granting; 2,508 campuses remain, with branch campuses counted at their own addresses. Connecticut is drawn as its eight legacy counties, with each tract and campus assigned to its legacy county.Note: The second view measures the distance to the nearest public four-year campus. County values are full counts of tracts and campuses and carry no sampling interval; the intervals in the gradient figure treat counties as draws. Distance is a measure of supply, not of where residents enroll.Source: IPEDS 2023 directory (campus locations), 2020 Census tract internal points, American Community Survey 2019-2023 (tract population); population-weighted, full counts

Distance rises with county deprivation and with rurality

Each county has a rank on the Area Deprivation Index, the average of its tracts' national ranks weighted by population, with a higher rank meaning more deprived. Sorting the 3,128 counties that have a rank into tenths of equal numbers (the 15 counties whose tracts all have a suppressed rank are left out), the distance for the average resident rises across the tenths, from 6.1 (95% CI 5.3 to 6.9) miles in the least deprived tenth to 29.3 (95% CI 24.6 to 35.0) miles in the most deprived, or 2.1 (95% CI 1.7 to 2.5) miles for each step up. The rise is not steady, and the second, third and fourth tenths are not distinguishable from one another. The share of counties with no campus inside rises across the tenths too, from 42% (95% CI 33% to 51%) to 92% (95% CI 87% to 95%), or 5.3 percentage points (95% CI 4.5 percentage points to 6.2 percentage points) for each step up (Figure 6). The intervals describe variation across states, because the tracts and campuses are enumerated and not sampled. Across counties the correlation of the rank with the distance is +0.31 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.40) when counties count in proportion to their residents and +0.16 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.33) when each counts once. Measured to the nearest public four-year campus, the distance rises from 9.4 (95% CI 8.3 to 10.8) miles in the least deprived tenth to 36.5 (95% CI 32.4 to 41.6) miles in the most deprived.

Rurality accounts for much of the gradient. The Rural-Urban Continuum Code of the US Department of Agriculture sorts counties by the size of their metro area or, outside metro areas, by the size of the county's urban population and its adjacency to a metro area. These comparisons use all counties, including the ones without an ADI rank. The average resident of a metro county lives 7.0 (95% CI 6.3 to 7.8) miles from a four-year campus and the average resident of a nonmetro county 25.7 (95% CI 22.8 to 29.4) miles, which is 3.7 (95% CI 3.2 to 4.2) times as far. In the group of nonmetro counties with the smallest urban populations the distance is 34.3 (95% CI 29.7 to 40.9) miles, and 95% (95% CI 94% to 97%) of these counties have no campus inside, against 83% (95% CI 80% to 86%) of nonmetro counties together and 49% (95% CI 42% to 55%) of metro counties.

Deprivation and rurality overlap. Of the counties in the most deprived tenth, 94% (95% CI 92% to 96%) are nonmetro, against 23% (95% CI 14% to 31%) in the least deprived tenth. Within nonmetro counties the distance does not move with the deprivation rank, with a correlation of −0.04 (95% CI −0.12 to 0.05), while within metro counties it rises modestly, with a correlation of +0.24 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.32). The gradient across all counties therefore mostly reflects that deprived counties are more often rural. The ADI is a national rank that understates deprivation in high-cost areas, and a county average hides differences among its tracts.

Figure 6

Distance to a four-year college rises with county deprivation, from 6.1 miles in the least deprived tenth of counties to 29.3 in the most deprived, and with rurality

Miles from the average resident to the nearest four-year campus, and the share of counties with no four-year campus, by tenth of county Area Deprivation Index rank and by Rural-Urban Continuum Code, residents of 2019 to 2023

Distance to the nearest four-year campus rises across the tenths of county deprivation, from 6.1 miles to 29.3

Miles to the nearest four-year campus, average resident

The line rises by 2.1 miles for each step up the tenths, but not at every step: the second to fourth tenths are close together. The intervals widen toward the deprived end, where fewer states contribute counties.

Show data

Data for Distance to a four-year college rises with county deprivation, from 6.1 miles in the least deprived tenth of counties to 29.3 in the most deprived, and with rurality, Distance by deprivation
conf_high	conf_low	miles	n	tenth
6.91	5.27	6.10	312	1
10.37	7.33	8.53	313	2
12.34	7.70	9.36	313	3
11.67	7.94	9.54	312	4
20.68	10.77	14.49	314	5
18.94	12.67	15.25	312	6
21.96	14.73	17.97	313	7
24.30	18.35	21.28	315	8
29.50	22.45	25.60	312	9
35.02	24.64	29.34	312	10

Distance climbs across the tenths of county deprivation in the first tab, the share of counties with no campus climbs with it in the second, and distance climbs from metro counties to the most rural group of nonmetro counties in the third. Points and bars are resident-weighted means over counties (shares count each county once), with 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states. Counties are tenths of equal numbers ranked by the population-weighted mean of their tracts' ADI national rank.Note: Tracts and campuses are enumerated, not sampled, so the intervals describe how much an estimate varies from state to state and not sampling error. The rural-urban groups use all counties; the tenths use the counties that have an ADI rank.Note: 3,128 counties have an ADI rank; 15 counties whose tracts all have a suppressed rank are not in the tenths. The ADI is a national percentile with 1 least deprived, and it understates deprivation in high-cost areas.Note: The correlation across counties between the ADI rank and the distance is +0.31 when counties count in proportion to their residents and +0.16 when each counts once, with intervals from a bootstrap over states. Connecticut counties take the Rural-Urban Continuum Code held by most of their residents, because the code is published for the planning regions that replaced the counties.Source: IPEDS 2023 directory, American Community Survey 2019-2023 (residents), Area Deprivation Index 2023, USDA Rural-Urban Continuum Codes 2023; population-weighted unless the tab gives a share of counties

Causal evidenceRegression discontinuity; instrumental variables; randomized resume experiment

What designs that can speak to cause find about admission, aid, funding and credentials

The comparisons above describe differences across colleges and counties. Four studies use designs that can speak to cause at specific points.

Zimmerman compared students just above and just below a grade-point threshold for admission to a large public university in Florida, a regression discontinuity design. Students just above the threshold were more likely to attend a university and earned more in the years that followed, and the effect applies to students near the threshold at one university.[5] Bettinger and co-authors used the grade-point and family-income cutoffs of California's Cal Grant, also a regression discontinuity design, and found that eligibility raised degree completion and, for some groups, later earnings, without raising enrollment.[6]

Chakrabarti, Gorton and Lovenheim used an instrumental variables design in which each public institution's baseline reliance on state appropriations is combined with year-to-year changes in state appropriations. At four-year colleges they found that more state support lowered debt originations and adverse debt events and shortened time to degree, with little effect on other outcomes, and that the support was passed on to students as lower tuition with no change in institutional spending. At two-year colleges the gains were broader, with higher educational attainment and credit scores, more home ownership and less delinquency, and the support went to both lower tuition and educational resources.[7] Deming and co-authors sent fictitious resumes that differed in the sector and selectivity of the college to real job postings, a randomized resume experiment, and found that a business bachelor's degree from a for-profit online institution received fewer callbacks than one from a nonselective public institution.[8] The experiment measures employers' callbacks and not earnings.

Each study speaks to one margin, which is admission at a threshold, eligibility for aid, state funding or a credential on a resume. None tests whether the sector gap in earnings or the schedule of net prices in this chapter would change if a student moved from one college to another.

What these data cannot show

The geography describes supply. Distance is measured in a straight line from where residents live to where campuses sit, so it ignores roads, ferries, online programs and the colleges students choose when they leave home. The Chetty and co-authors data that link the neighborhood a student grew up in to the college the student attended and the income reached are not part of this project's data, and nothing here reproduces them. A county average also hides the tracts inside it, and the gradients describe counties and not the families who live in them.

The earnings describe aided students who entered in 2009 to 2011, not all students and not those entering now. They are medians of institutions, with noise added by the Scorecard, and a larger share of private colleges than of public colleges have no published value. Branch campuses repeat their parent's earnings and debt, which is why the chapter counts institutions by OPE ID, and the Pell share, cost of attendance, net price and completion rate come from the largest campus of each institution. Earnings follow local wages and the field of study as well as the college, and the sector gap mixes what colleges do with who enrolls and what programs they run.

The net price is an average over aided, first-time, full-time students in each band, at public colleges for in-state students only, and the share of income depends on assumed incomes. The lists of high-Pell colleges are rankings of named colleges, with no interval, and they include colleges whose earnings are not comparable with those of a general four-year degree. The designs in the box above identify effects at specific margins and do not show what a college does to a student in general.

Data sources

College ScorecardMedian earnings a decade after entry (entering classes of 2009 to 2010 and 2010 to 2011, 2022 dollars), net price by family-income band, cost of attendance, Pell share (academic year 2021 to 2022), completion and debt; institutions in the 50 states and DC, one row per 6-digit OPE IDYears: May 2025 release (most recent cohorts) · Weights: none (each institution counts once); enrollment weights as a check · License: Public domain (U.S. Department of Education)
IPEDSCampus locations (latitude and longitude, county) of four-year institutions, 2023 directoryYears: 2023 · Weights: none (campuses are points) · License: Public domain (U.S. Department of Education, NCES)
Census TIGER/Line tracts2020 census tract internal points, from which each tract's distance to the nearest campus is measuredYears: 2020 · Weights: none (points) · License: Public domain (U.S. Census Bureau)
Area Deprivation IndexArea Deprivation Index 2023 national rank of tracts, averaged to countiesYears: 2023 release (version 4.0.1; built on ACS 2019-2023) · Weights: 2019 to 2023 ACS tract population · License: Free for non-commercial use; cite the Neighborhood Atlas and Kind and Buckingham
Rural-Urban Continuum CodesRural-Urban Continuum Codes 2023 (metro 1 to 3, nonmetro 4 to 9)Years: 2023 · Weights: none (classification) · License: Public domain (U.S. federal)
American Community Survey2019 to 2023 tract population, used to weight tracts into county valuesYears: 2019-2023 (5-year) · Weights: none (population counts) · License: Public domain (U.S. Census Bureau)

All data sources

Methods

The college comparisons use one row per institution (5,000 institutions in the 50 states and DC) and the median earnings of former students who received federal aid, who entered in 2009 to 2010 and 2010 to 2011 and were observed in 2020 and 2021, so they do not cover all students or those entering now. The county comparisons measure the great-circle distance in miles from each tract's Census internal point to the nearest four-year campus, averaged over a county's tracts. Institutions, tracts and campuses are enumerated and not sampled, so the intervals describe how much an estimate varies from state to state and are not sampling errors.

Which institutions and years the college figures cover

Institutions come from the College Scorecard institution file of May 2025 (most recent cohorts), limited to the 50 states and DC. The Scorecard attaches a 6-digit OPE ID parent's earnings and debt to each of its branch campuses, so one row per OPE ID is kept (the campus with the most undergraduates, which also supplies the Pell share, cost of attendance, net price and completion rate), which leaves 5,000 institutions from 6,429 rows; 154 rows outside the states and DC and 1,275 branch rows are dropped.

Earnings are the median earnings of students who received federal aid, were working and not enrolled ten years after entry, entered in 2009 to 2010 and 2010 to 2011, and were observed in 2020 and 2021 in 2022 dollars; the Scorecard adds noise to them and withholds them for small groups. Net price, cost of attendance and Pell share are for academic year 2021 to 2022 in nominal dollars.

Residents of Puerto Rico and campuses outside the 50 states and DC are not in the data.

Figures explained here: Figure 1, Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 4

How sectors, completion rates and medians are defined

Sector is public, private nonprofit or for-profit (Scorecard control). The two completion rates (four-year colleges, shorter programs) are never pooled. A sector figure is the median across institutions with each counted once; enrollment-weighted medians (fall 2022 undergraduates) are the check.

Figure explained here: Figure 1

How net price, the cost and earnings scatter and the high-Pell list are defined

Net price by income band covers public and private nonprofit four-year colleges and is shown as dollars and as a share of an assumed family income at the midpoint of each band (15,000, 39,000, 61,500, 92,500 and 150,000 dollars; the highest band is open-ended, so its midpoint is a choice). In the cost and earnings scatter, colleges with fewer than 100 undergraduates or no cost of attendance are left out, and the quadrant lines are medians.

The high-Pell pool is public and private nonprofit four-year colleges with at least 1,000 undergraduates, a Pell share, earnings and a net price for the lowest band; for-profit colleges are not in the pool, and a college is high-Pell when its Pell share reaches the two-thirds quantile of the pool.

Figures explained here: Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 4

How distance to a four-year college is measured

Distance is the great-circle (haversine) distance in miles from the Census internal point of each 2020 tract to the nearest four-year campus in the IPEDS 2023 directory, leaving out 273 institutions the Scorecard classes as entirely graduate-degree granting, so 2,508 campuses remain. A county's value is the mean of its tracts' distances weighted by the 2019 to 2023 ACS tract population, and counties are the 3,143 on the map sprite (Connecticut as eight legacy counties through the staged crosswalk; each Connecticut campus goes to the legacy county of the tract that holds its point).

Figures explained here: Figure 5 and Figure 6

How counties are grouped and weighted

County deprivation is the mean of tract ADI national ranks weighted by tract population, in tenths of equal numbers of counties; the rural-urban grouping, for all counties, is the USDA Rural-Urban Continuum Code 2023 of the county, with a legacy Connecticut county taking the code held by most of its residents. Gradient means weight counties by residents and county shares count each county once.

Figure explained here: Figure 6

How uncertainty is measured

Intervals for sector and band medians, shares and correlations across colleges are percentile intervals from 2,000 draws of whole states with replacement (seed 12345). They describe how much an estimate varies from state to state; institutions, tracts and campuses are enumerated and not sampled, so they are not sampling errors, and counts and national distances carry none.

In the county gradients, intervals redraw whole states (2,000 draws, seed 12345).

References

Chetty, Raj; Friedman, John N.; Saez, Emmanuel; Turner, Nicholas; Yagan, Danny (2020). Income Segregation and Intergenerational Mobility Across Colleges in the United States. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 135(3): 1567-1633. doi:10.1093/qje/qjaa005
Chetty, Raj; Friedman, John N.; Saez, Emmanuel; Turner, Nicholas; Yagan, Danny (2017). Mobility Report Cards: The Role of Colleges in Intergenerational Mobility. NBER Working Paper 23618. www.nber.org/papers/w23618
Deming, David J.; Goldin, Claudia; Katz, Lawrence F. (2012). The For-Profit Postsecondary School Sector: Nimble Critters or Agile Predators?. Journal of Economic Perspectives 26(1): 139-164. doi:10.1257/jep.26.1.139
Hoxby, Caroline; Avery, Christopher (2013). The Missing “One-Offs”: The Hidden Supply of High-Achieving, Low-Income Students. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2013): 1-65. doi:10.1353/eca.2013.0000
Zimmerman, Seth D. (2014). The Returns to College Admission for Academically Marginal Students. Journal of Labor Economics 32(4): 711-754. doi:10.1086/676661
Bettinger, Eric; Gurantz, Oded; Kawano, Laura; Sacerdote, Bruce; Stevens, Michael (2019). The Long-Run Impacts of Financial Aid: Evidence from California's Cal Grant. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 11(1): 64-94. doi:10.1257/pol.20170466
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Gorton, Nicole; Lovenheim, Michael F. (2020). State Investment in Higher Education: Effects on Human Capital Formation, Student Debt, and Long-term Financial Outcomes of Students. NBER Working Paper 27885. doi:10.3386/w27885
Deming, David J.; Yuchtman, Noam; Abulafi, Amira; Goldin, Claudia; Katz, Lawrence F. (2016). The Value of Postsecondary Credentials in the Labor Market: An Experimental Study. American Economic Review 106(3): 778-806. doi:10.1257/aer.20141757

How to cite

@misc{singh2026collegeaccesspriceandearnings,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {College access, price and earnings},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/college-access-price-and-earnings},
  note = {In ZIP Code Destiny. Published 9 October 2026.}
}

Reading paths

Money and the institutions that follow the map

For-profit colleges have the lowest median earnings

Net price rises with family income but falls as a share of it

Cost, earnings and completion rise together

High-Pell colleges differ widely in earnings

Most counties have no four-year college

Distance rises with county deprivation and with rurality

What these data cannot show

Data sources

Methods

Which institutions and years the college figures cover

How sectors, completion rates and medians are defined

How net price, the cost and earnings scatter and the high-Pell list are defined

How distance to a four-year college is measured

How counties are grouped and weighted

How uncertainty is measured

References

How to cite

Reading paths