School discipline and incarceration

Out-of-school suspensions in the 2020 to 2021 school year were 3.13.1 students suspended out of school at least once per 1,000 students enrolledEstimandenrollment-weighted mean of district rates (students suspended over students enrolled), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 2.4 to 4.1n1,025 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in school districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported suspension count in the least deprived tenth of districts by deprivation rankPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection per thousand students in the least deprived tenth of school districts and 23.623.6 students suspended out of school at least once per 1,000 students enrolledEstimandenrollment-weighted mean of district rates (students suspended over students enrolled), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 20.2 to 27.3n1,022 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in school districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported suspension count in the most deprived tenth of districts by deprivation rankPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection in the most deprived. Inside the same districts, Black students were suspended at 2.2 (95% CI 2.1 to 2.4)2.2 ratio of Black students suspended to the number expected if each district's Black students were suspended at its white rateEstimandobserved Black suspensions over expected suspensions at the district's white rate, pooled, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 2.1 to 2.4n5,156 districtsWeightsBlack enrollmentPopulationBlack students enrolled in the 5156 districts with at least 50 Black and as many white students and a reported suspension count for each groupPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection times the rate of white students, a comparison drawn from 5,1565,156 school districtsEstimandcount of districts with at least 50 Black and as many white students and a reported count for eachWeightsnone (full count)Populationschool districts (local education agencies) that reported to the Civil Rights Data CollectionPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection districts. The second part of the chapter moves from districts to census tracts. Among children from low-income families who grew up in tracts where the Opportunity Atlas estimates both groups, 5.2% (95% CI 5.0% to 5.3%)5.2% percent of children incarcerated on April 1, 2010Estimandpopulation-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 5.0% to 5.3%n27,795 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationBlack children raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in tracts where the Atlas also estimates the other groupPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity AtlasNoteCounting each tract once gives a similar mean. of Black children and 1.9% (95% CI 1.8% to 2.0%)1.9% percent of children incarcerated on April 1, 2010Estimandpopulation-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 1.8% to 2.0%n27,795 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationwhite children raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in tracts where the Atlas also estimates the other groupPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity AtlasNoteCounting each tract once gives a similar mean. of white children were incarcerated on Census Day 2010.

The two parts describe different children. The district records are for students enrolled in 2020 to 2021, and the Opportunity Atlas follows children born in 1978 to 1983 into adulthood. No data in the chapter link a suspended student to a later incarceration, so what the two parts share is the question of how unevenly each outcome falls across places and between groups of children. Earlier work found that Black students are suspended more often than white students. Skiba and colleagues, using one year of middle-school discipline records from an urban district, found that the gap in referrals, suspensions and expulsions remained after controlling for socioeconomic status, and that Black students were referred more often for infractions that depend on a teacher's interpretation.[1] The Government Accountability Office, analyzing national data for 2013 to 2014, found that Black students were a larger share of suspended students than of enrolled students, and that the disparity persisted regardless of a school's poverty level or type.[2] The same comparison for adult income, rather than incarceration, is in Chapter 3.3, Race, income and mobility, which links back here for the incarceration result.

How a district gets a suspension rate and a deprivation rank

The Civil Rights Data Collection gathers counts from every public school district for the Department of Education, and districts report their own counts. This chapter uses the 2020 to 2021 collection, with school counts summed to the 17,82117,821 school districtsEstimandcount of reporting districtsWeightsnone (full count)Populationschool districts (local education agencies) that reported to the Civil Rights Data CollectionPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection reporting districts (local education agencies). That year was disrupted by remote and hybrid teaching, so the levels describe an unusual year and are read here for gradients and gaps, not as typical rates. Summing the schools' counts gives 651,832651,832 students suspended out of school at least once, counted once for each schoolEstimandsum of the schools' counts over all districts; a student suspended at two schools counts at each, and school cells coded as suppressed or not reported add nothingWeightsnone (full count)Populationstudents in the reporting districtsPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data CollectionNoteDistricts report their own counts. The sum counts a student once for each school where they were suspended. students suspended out of school that year, a student counted once for each school where they were suspended, and school cells coded as suppressed or not reported add nothing to a district's sum.

A suspension rate is the number of students who received at least one out-of-school suspension, with and without disabilities, divided by the students enrolled, per thousand. A student suspended more than once at a school counts once there, a student suspended at two schools counts at each, and in-school suspensions are not included. The Collection counts Hispanic students of any race in their own group, so its Black and white students are not Hispanic. Expulsions are students expelled with or without educational services, and referrals to law enforcement and school-related arrests are counts of students at each stage, summed the same way. The Collection also counts expulsions under zero-tolerance policies, which are a subset of the expulsions with or without services and are not added again.

Deprivation is a tract measure, so a district needs a rank built from its tracts. The Area Deprivation IndexArea Deprivation Index (ADI)A score that ranks neighborhoods by income, education, employment and housing conditions drawn from the American Community Survey. In this book a higher national percentile means a more deprived neighborhood. ranks each tract nationally from the least to the most deprived, using income, education, employment and housing measures from the American Community Survey.[3] A district's rank is the mean rank of the tracts assigned to it, weighted by tract population. Only districts that the book's geography file (dim_geo), which assigns each tract to one school district, knows get a rank, which excludes charter, regional and single-grade-span districts. The index uses data for 2019 to 2023, close to the school year studied. Of the 17,82117,821 school districtsEstimandcount of reporting districtsWeightsnone (full count)Populationschool districts (local education agencies) that reported to the Civil Rights Data CollectionPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection reporting districts, 10,25710,257 school districtsEstimandcount of districts in the dose, funnel and mapn10,257 districtsWeightsnone (full count)Populationdistricts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported suspension countPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection (57.6%57.6% percent of reporting districtsEstimandshare of reporting districts that enter the doseWeightsnone (each district counts once)Populationschool districts (local education agencies) that reported to the Civil Rights Data CollectionPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection) have a rank, at least 100100 students enrolledEstimandminimum enrollment for a district to enter (a rule, not an estimate)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)Populationdistricts in the dose, funnel and mapPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection students and a reported suspension count. They enroll 38.7 million38.7 million students enrolledEstimandsum of enrollment in the districts of the doseWeightsnone (full count)Populationschool districts (local education agencies) that reported to the Civil Rights Data Collection in the dosePeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection students, 78.4%78.4% percent of enrolled studentsEstimandshare of all enrollment that sits in the districts of the doseWeightsenrollment (full count)Populationstudents enrolled in reporting districtsPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection of all students in reporting districts. Another 3838 school districtsEstimandcount of districts left out of the dose, funnel and map for want of a countWeightsnone (full count)Populationdistricts that have a deprivation rank and at least 100 students but report no suspension countPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection districts have a rank and enough students but report no suspension count, among them New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago and Miami-Dade, and their 6.2 million6.2 million students enrolledEstimandsum of enrollment in those districtsWeightsnone (full count)Populationstudents in the districts that report no suspension countPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection students are not in any estimate here.

Suspension rates rise with district deprivation, with no clear order in the top three tenths

Ranking districts from least to most deprived and cutting them into tenths of equal numbers of districts, the suspension rate climbs steeply over the first four tenths, from 3.1 (95% CI 2.4 to 4.1)3.1 students suspended out of school at least once per 1,000 students enrolledEstimandenrollment-weighted mean of district rates (students suspended over students enrolled), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 2.4 to 4.1n1,025 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in school districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported suspension count in the least deprived tenth of districts by deprivation rankPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection per thousand students in the least deprived tenth to 20.1 (95% CI 17.3 to 23.1)20.1 students suspended out of school at least once per 1,000 students enrolledEstimandenrollment-weighted mean of district rates (students suspended over students enrolled), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 17.3 to 23.1n1,025 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in school districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported suspension count in the fourth most deprived tenth of districts by deprivation rankPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection in the fourth. It rises more slowly to 26.9 (95% CI 24.1 to 29.7)26.9 students suspended out of school at least once per 1,000 students enrolledEstimandenrollment-weighted mean of district rates (students suspended over students enrolled), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 24.1 to 29.7n1,026 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in school districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported suspension count in the tenth of districts with the highest mean ratePeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection in decile 88 decile of the district deprivation rank (1 = least deprived, 10 = most)Estimanddecile with the highest enrollment-weighted mean rateWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationdistricts in the dosePeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection, and the most deprived tenth is at 23.6 (95% CI 20.2 to 27.3)23.6 students suspended out of school at least once per 1,000 students enrolledEstimandenrollment-weighted mean of district rates (students suspended over students enrolled), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 20.2 to 27.3n1,022 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in school districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported suspension count in the most deprived tenth of districts by deprivation rankPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection. The highest tenth's rate minus the most deprived tenth's is +3.2 (95% CI −0.9 to 7.1)+3.2 students suspended per 1,000 enrolled: the highest tenth's rate minus the most deprived tenth's rateEstimanddifference of two enrollment-weighted decile means, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI −0.9 to 7.1n10,257 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in school districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported suspension countPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection per thousand, and the interval includes zero, so the top three tenths cannot be told apart. The rate in the most deprived tenth is 7.6 (95% CI 5.5 to 10.6)7.6 ratio of the suspension rate in the most deprived tenth of districts to the rate in the least deprived tenthEstimandratio of pooled rates, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 5.5 to 10.6n10,257 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in school districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported suspension countPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection times the rate in the least deprived. Across districts, weighted by enrollment, the rate and the deprivation rank have a correlation of +0.42 (95% CI 0.37 to 0.46)+0.42 correlation coefficientEstimandenrollment-weighted correlation of the district suspension rate with the district deprivation rank, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.37 to 0.46n10,257 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in school districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported suspension countPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection, and the interval is wider when whole states are resampled in place of counties (+0.42 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.51)+0.42 correlation coefficientEstimandthe same correlation with a bootstrap interval that resamples whole statesInterval95% CI 0.31 to 0.51n10,257 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in school districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported suspension countPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection).

Figure 1

Out-of-school suspensions were more common in more deprived districts, at 3.1 per thousand students in the least deprived tenth of districts against 23.6 in the most deprived

Students suspended out of school at least once per 1,000 students enrolled, by the district's deprivation rank (mean Area Deprivation Index national rank of its tracts), one dot per district, 2020-21 school year

Loading data

2020 school districtsEstimanddistricts with a rate above the top of the scatter's vertical axis, which are in every estimate but not drawnWeightsnone (full count)Populationdistricts in the dosePeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection districts have rates above the top of the figure's vertical axis and are left off the dots, though they are in every estimate.

States differ in their rates, from 3.13.1 students suspended out of school at least once per 1,000 students enrolledEstimandpooled students suspended over students enrolled in the state's districts of the dosen225 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in the state with the lowest rate among the ranked states, in districts of the dosePeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection per thousand students in Washington (96.4%96.4% percent of the state's enrolled students in the districts of the doseEstimandenrollment of the state's districts in the dose over enrollment of all its reporting districtsWeightsnone (full count)Populationstudents enrolled in the state's reporting districtsPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection of students covered) to 43.643.6 students suspended out of school at least once per 1,000 students enrolledEstimandpooled students suspended over students enrolled in the state's districts of the dosen218 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in the state with the highest rate among the ranked states, in districts of the dosePeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection in Arkansas (93.2%93.2% percent of the state's enrolled students in the districts of the doseEstimandenrollment of the state's districts in the dose over enrollment of all its reporting districtsWeightsnone (full count)Populationstudents enrolled in the state's reporting districtsPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection covered) among the ranked states (see the map below), and deprived districts are not spread evenly across states. Within a state, each ten-point step up the deprivation rank went with 1.9 (95% CI 1.3 to 2.6)1.9 students suspended per 1,000 enrolled, for each ten-point step in the district deprivation rankEstimandenrollment-weighted regression of the district rate on the deprivation rank with state fixed effects, errors clustered by stateInterval95% CI 1.3 to 2.6n10,257 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in school districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported suspension countPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection more students suspended per thousand, so the gradient is not only a difference between states.

Every stage of exclusion is more common in the most deprived third of districts

Suspension is the widest stage. Among the 10,18110,181 school districtsEstimandcount of districts in the funnelWeightsnone (full count)Populationdistricts in the dose with all four counts reportedPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection districts that report all four counts, 16.3 (95% CI 15.0 to 17.5)16.3 students per 1,000 enrolled: out-of-school suspensionEstimandenrollment-weighted mean of district rates, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 15.0 to 17.5n10,181 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in the 10181 districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported count for all four stagesPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection students per thousand were suspended, 1.73 (95% CI 1.55 to 1.90)1.73 students per 1,000 enrolled: referral to law enforcementEstimandenrollment-weighted mean of district rates, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 1.55 to 1.90n10,181 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in the 10181 districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported count for all four stagesPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection were referred to law enforcement, 0.74 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.84)0.74 students per 1,000 enrolled: expulsionEstimandenrollment-weighted mean of district rates, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.65 to 0.84n10,181 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in the 10181 districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported count for all four stagesPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection were expelled and 0.26 (95% CI 0.22 to 0.30)0.26 students per 1,000 enrolled: school-related arrestEstimandenrollment-weighted mean of district rates, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.22 to 0.30n10,181 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in the 10181 districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported count for all four stagesPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection were arrested at school. The three deeper stages are zero in most districts: 61.4%61.4% percent of districts reporting a count of zero for referral to law enforcementEstimandshare of districts (each counted once) whose count is zeron10,181 districtsWeightsnone (each district counts once)Populationdistricts in the funnelPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection report no referrals, 75.5%75.5% percent of districts reporting a count of zero for expulsionEstimandshare of districts (each counted once) whose count is zeron10,181 districtsWeightsnone (each district counts once)Populationdistricts in the funnelPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection no expulsions and 88.1%88.1% percent of districts reporting a count of zero for school-related arrestEstimandshare of districts (each counted once) whose count is zeron10,181 districtsWeightsnone (each district counts once)Populationdistricts in the funnelPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection no arrests, so their rates come from a minority of districts.

Splitting the districts into thirds by deprivation, the rate in the most deprived third was 2.6 (95% CI 2.2 to 3.0)2.6 ratio of the suspension rate in the most deprived third of districts to the rate in the least deprived thirdEstimandratio of pooled rates, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 2.2 to 3.0n10,181 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in the 10181 districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported count for all four stagesPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection times the rate in the least deprived third for suspensions, 2.7 (95% CI 1.9 to 3.8)2.7 ratio of the expulsion rate in the most deprived third of districts to the rate in the least deprived thirdEstimandratio of pooled rates, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 1.9 to 3.8n10,181 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in the 10181 districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported count for all four stagesPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection times for expulsions, 1.5 (95% CI 1.2 to 1.9)1.5 ratio of the referral to law enforcement rate in the most deprived third of districts to the rate in the least deprived thirdEstimandratio of pooled rates, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 1.2 to 1.9n10,181 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in the 10181 districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported count for all four stagesPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection times for referrals and 1.8 (95% CI 1.2 to 2.5)1.8 ratio of the school-related arrest rate in the most deprived third of districts to the rate in the least deprived thirdEstimandratio of pooled rates, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 1.2 to 2.5n10,181 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in the 10181 districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported count for all four stagesPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection times for arrests (Figure 2). All four intervals lie above one. For referrals and arrests the middle third is as high as the most deprived, at 1.7 (95% CI 1.3 to 2.0)1.7 ratio of the referral to law enforcement rate in the middle third of districts to the rate in the least deprived thirdEstimandratio of pooled rates, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 1.3 to 2.0n10,181 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in the 10181 districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported count for all four stagesPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection and 2.1 (95% CI 1.5 to 3.0)2.1 ratio of the school-related arrest rate in the middle third of districts to the rate in the least deprived thirdEstimandratio of pooled rates, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 1.5 to 3.0n10,181 districtsWeightsdistrict enrollmentPopulationstudents enrolled in the 10181 districts that have a deprivation rank, at least 100 students and a reported count for all four stagesPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection times the least deprived third, so for those stages the rise is not steady across the thirds. The counts at each stage are students in a district, not students followed from one stage to the next, and the stages are not a sequence for any child.

Figure 2

Every stage of school exclusion was more common in the most deprived third of districts than in the least deprived third

Four stages of exclusion from out-of-school suspension to school-related arrest, districts ranked on deprivation, 2020-21 school year

Relative to the least deprived thirdRates per 1,000 students

Each stage was more common in the most deprived third of districts, from 1.5 times the rate in the least deprived third for law-enforcement referrals to 2.7 times for expulsions

Rate in each third of districts divided by the rate in the least deprived third, by stage of exclusion, 2020-21 school year

Rate relative to the least deprived third of districts

• Least deprived third
• Middle third
• Most deprived third
• Least deprived third

Stage of exclusion

For every stage, the bars for the middle and the most deprived thirds stand above the line at one, and for suspensions and expulsions the most deprived third has the tallest bar. Each bar is the pooled rate per student enrolled in the districts of that group divided by the rate in the least deprived third, with a 95% interval from a bootstrap over counties.

Show data

Data for Every stage of school exclusion was more common in the most deprived third of districts than in the least deprived third, Relative to the least deprived third

conf_high	conf_low	n	ratio	stage	tercile
n/a	n/a	3,393	1	Out-of-school suspension	Least deprived third
2.60	1.90	3,394	2.22	Out-of-school suspension	Middle third
3.03	2.23	3,394	2.60	Out-of-school suspension	Most deprived third
n/a	n/a	3,393	1	Expulsion	Least deprived third
3.15	1.62	3,394	2.24	Expulsion	Middle third
3.83	1.94	3,394	2.72	Expulsion	Most deprived third
n/a	n/a	3,393	1	Referral to law enforcement	Least deprived third
2.04	1.33	3,394	1.65	Referral to law enforcement	Middle third
1.91	1.15	3,394	1.46	Referral to law enforcement	Most deprived third
n/a	n/a	3,393	1	School-related arrest	Least deprived third
2.97	1.48	3,394	2.10	School-related arrest	Middle third
2.53	1.24	3,394	1.79	School-related arrest	Most deprived third

Black and white students in the same district

A comparison inside one district removes the differences between districts that a state or county average mixes in. The comparison uses the 5,1565,156 school districtsEstimandcount of districts with at least 50 Black and as many white students and a reported count for eachWeightsnone (full count)Populationschool districts (local education agencies) that reported to the Civil Rights Data CollectionPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection reporting districts that have at least 5050 students enrolled in each groupEstimandminimum Black and minimum white enrollment (a rule, not an estimate)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)Populationdistricts in the comparisonPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection Black and as many white students and a reported count for each group. They enroll 33.3 million33.3 million students enrolledEstimandsum of total enrollment in the districts of the comparisonWeightsnone (full count)Populationall students in the districts of the comparisonPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection students and 71.3%71.3% percent of Black students enrolledEstimandshare of all Black enrollment that sits in the districts of the comparisonWeightsnone (full count)PopulationBlack students in the reporting districtsPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection of the Black students in the Collection. Pooled over those districts, 30.7 (95% CI 22.7 to 39.1)30.7 students suspended out of school at least once per 1,000 students enrolledEstimandBlack students suspended over Black students enrolled, pooled over districts, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 22.7 to 39.1n5,156 districtsWeightsBlack enrollmentPopulationBlack students enrolled in the 5156 districts with at least 50 Black and as many white students and a reported suspension count for each groupPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection Black students per thousand were suspended. Weighting each district's white rate by its Black enrollment gives the rate those Black students would have had at their own district's white rate, 13.7 (95% CI 10.1 to 17.0)13.7 students suspended out of school at least once per 1,000 students enrolledEstimandmean of district white rates weighted by Black enrollment, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 10.1 to 17.0n5,156 districtsWeightsBlack enrollmentPopulationwhite students, at the white rate of each district weighted by that district's Black enrollmentPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection per thousand, so Black students were suspended at 2.2 (95% CI 2.1 to 2.4)2.2 ratio of Black students suspended to the number expected if each district's Black students were suspended at its white rateEstimandobserved Black suspensions over expected suspensions at the district's white rate, pooled, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 2.1 to 2.4n5,156 districtsWeightsBlack enrollmentPopulationBlack students enrolled in the 5156 districts with at least 50 Black and as many white students and a reported suspension count for each groupPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection times the white rate in the same districts. The intervals resample states, because this comparison includes districts that cannot be placed in a county.

How many districts follow that pattern depends on how districts are counted. Counting each district once, the Black rate is higher than the white rate in 65.4% (95% CI 57.5% to 72.4%)65.4% percent of districts in which the Black rate is higher than the white rateEstimandshare of districts, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 57.5% to 72.4%n5,156 districtsWeightsnone (each district counts once)Populationdistricts in the Black-white comparisonPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection of districts, lower in 19.9% (95% CI 17.3% to 22.4%)19.9% percent of districts in which the white rate is higher than the Black rateEstimandshare of districts, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 17.3% to 22.4%n5,156 districtsWeightsnone (each district counts once)Populationdistricts in the Black-white comparisonPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection and equal in 14.7% (95% CI 9.7% to 20.7%)14.7% percent of districts in which the two rates are equalEstimandshare of districts, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 9.7% to 20.7%n5,156 districtsWeightsnone (each district counts once)Populationdistricts in the Black-white comparisonPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection, almost always because both are zero. Weighting each district by its Black enrollment raises the first share to 84.0% (95% CI 77.1% to 88.8%)84.0% percent of districts in which the Black rate is higher than the white rateEstimandshare of districts, weighted by Black enrollment, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 77.1% to 88.8%n5,156 districtsWeightsBlack enrollmentPopulationdistricts in the Black-white comparisonPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection, because districts with more Black students are more likely to have a higher Black rate. A small district's rate rests on few suspensions, so the unweighted share carries more noise than the weighted one.

Figure 3

The Black suspension rate was higher than the white rate in 20 of the 24 districts with the most Black students

Students suspended out of school at least once per 1,000 enrolled, white and Black students in the same district, the districts with the most Black students among those compared, 2020-21 school year

• White students
• Black students

Show data

Data for The Black suspension rate was higher than the white rate in 20 of the 24 districts with the most Black students

black	district	enrolled_black	enrolled_white	white
20.20	Gwinnett County, GA	57324	34490	12.90
2.10	DeKalb County, GA	55373	10603	1.30
2	Detroit Public Schools Community District, MI	38939	1177	8.50
15.50	Fulton County, GA	38322	23278	7.40
1.70	Atlanta Public Schools, GA	36901	8293	0.600
0.500	Clayton County, GA	36290	906	1.10
20.30	Cobb County, GA	32741	37526	10.20
6	Guilford County Schools, NC	29379	20193	2.30
50.50	East Baton Rouge Parish, LA	28779	4625	20.30
0	District of Columbia Public Schools, DC	28480	8188	0.100
154.9	Mobile County, AL	26493	19746	62.50
8.30	Columbus City School District, OH	24713	10015	4
12.50	Henry County, GA	24436	9752	17.40
45.40	Caddo Parish, LA	22967	10152	16.40
3.90	Cumberland County Schools, NC	22600	13156	1.70
10.40	Montgomery County, AL	22309	2261	2.70
13.60	Cincinnati Public Schools, OH	22032	7849	3.70
27.20	Cypress-Fairbanks ISD, TX	22025	25629	6.80
43.30	Richmond County, GA	21883	4380	30.10
2.50	Cleveland Municipal, OH	21492	5006	1.40
13.70	Fort Bend ISD, TX	21133	11341	4.40
3.60	Savannah-Chatham County, GA	21072	8018	1.60
2.60	Jackson Public School District, MS	19542	260	0
16.30	Birmingham City, AL	19186	403	5

Figure 3 shows the 2424 school districtsEstimandcount of districts drawn (chosen by Black enrollment, not by their rates)Weightsnone (full count)Populationdistricts with the most Black students among those comparedPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection districts with the most Black students among those compared. They are chosen by Black enrollment and not by their rates, and the Black rate is higher in 2020 school districtsEstimandcount of districts whose Black suspension rate is higher than the white rateWeightsnone (full count)Populationthe 24 districts with the most Black students among those comparedPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection of them. It is not higher in Detroit, Clayton County in Georgia, the District of Columbia and Henry County in Georgia. Detroit and Clayton County enroll few white students, and the District of Columbia reports rates close to zero for both groups.

Where suspension rates are highest

The map assigns each district to the county that holds most of its population and pools the districts of a county that report a count, weighted by enrollment. A county is drawn when those districts enroll at least 500500 students enrolledEstimandminimum enrollment in a county's districts for the county to be drawn (a rule, not an estimate)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)Populationcounties on the mapPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection students and hold more than 75%75% percent of enrolled studentsEstimandminimum share of students in the districts that report a count (a rule, not an estimate)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)Populationcounties drawn and states ranked on the mapPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection of the students in all the districts assigned to it, which leaves out counties where a large district reports no count, such as Los Angeles and Cook counties. The map draws 2,8122,812 countiesEstimandcount of counties with a rateWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties and county equivalents on the mapPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection counties. The other 331331 countiesEstimandcount of counties with no rateWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties and county equivalents on the mapPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection are gray: 3333 countiesEstimandcount of counties whose assigned districts all report no suspension countWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties and county equivalents on the mapPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection are served by a district that reports no suspension count, among them the counties of New York City, 88 countiesEstimandcount of counties whose assigned districts that report no count hold a quarter or more of the studentsWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties and county equivalents on the mapPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection have districts that report no count holding a quarter or more of their students, 240240 countiesEstimandcount of counties whose assigned districts enroll fewer students than the floorWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties and county equivalents on the mapPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection fall below the enrollment floor, and 5050 countiesEstimandcount of counties to which no district is assignedWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties and county equivalents on the mapPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection have no district with a count assigned to them.

The highest tenth of county rates starts at 48.048.0 students suspended out of school at least once per 1,000 students enrolledEstimand90th percentile of county rates; counties at or above it are the highest tenthn2,812 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties drawnPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection per thousand students and holds 282282 countiesEstimandcount of counties at or above the 90th percentileWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties in the highest tenth of county ratesPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection counties. The rule for naming states is the number of counties in that tenth: 66 statesEstimandcount of states that meet the ruleWeightsnone (full count)Populationstates with at least the minimum number of counties in the highest tenthPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection states have at least 1515 counties in the highest tenthEstimandminimum number of counties in the highest tenth for a state to be named (a rule, not an estimate)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)Populationstates named on the mapPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection of them, Georgia, Mississippi, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina and Louisiana. Together they hold 61.0%61.0% percent of counties in the highest tenth of ratesEstimandshare of those counties that lie in the states that meet the rulen282 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties in the highest tenth of county ratesPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection of the highest tenth, and in each of them at least 25.3%25.3% percent of a state's drawn counties that are in the highest tenth of ratesEstimandthe smallest, over those states, of the share of the state's drawn counties in the highest tenthWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationdrawn counties in the states that meet the rulePeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection of the drawn counties are in that tenth, against one tenth of all drawn counties by definition.

State rates need the same care, because the districts in the analysis hold only part of the students in some states. Among the 3838 statesEstimandcount of states ranked on state rates (DC and Puerto Rico left out)Weightsnone (full count)Populationstates where the districts in the analysis hold at least the coverage floor of enrolled studentsPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection states where they hold at least 75%75% percent of enrolled studentsEstimandminimum share of students in the districts that report a count (a rule, not an estimate)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)Populationcounties drawn and states ranked on the mapPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection of enrolled students, the pooled rate runs from the Washington and Arkansas values above. Florida, Maryland and California are not ranked, because the districts in the analysis hold less than that share of their students. The key stops at 6161 students suspended per 1,000 enrolledEstimandtop of the map key, the 95th percentile of county rates rounded to a whole number; higher rates take the top colorWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties drawnPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection per thousand students, and 143143 countiesEstimandcount of counties with a rate above the top of the keyWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties drawnPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection counties above it share the color at the top of the key. The map shows the counts that districts recorded in a disrupted year and says nothing about how children behaved. The Collection also records each school's type of instruction in 2020 to 2021 in a separate school-level file that this chapter does not use, so the map cannot separate discipline from how much teaching was in person.

Figure 4

Counties in the highest tenth of suspension rates were concentrated in 6 states, which hold 61.0% of them

Students suspended out of school at least once per 1,000 students enrolled, school districts assigned to the county that holds most of their population, 2020-21 school year

+−Reset

Loading county values

Students suspended per 1,000 enrolled, 2020 to 2021

010203040506061

Values outside 0 to 61 take the end colors.

No data (3,143 counties)

Select a class to show only those places.

Find a county

Hover or tap a county for its value, or search by name. Zoom with the buttons on the map, then drag to move it.

Incarceration across tracts

The Opportunity Atlas links tax and census records for children born in 1978 to 1983 to the census tract where they grew up.[4] This chapter uses its incarceration measure, the share of children who were incarcerated on Census Day in 2010, when they were between their mid-twenties and early thirties, for children whose parents were at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution. The staged files pool boys and girls, and the Atlas privacy noise is not clipped, so some tract estimates fall below zero.

Across the 71,47871,478 tractsEstimandcount of tractsWeightsnone (full count)Population2010 census tracts with an incarceration estimate, a deprivation rank and a positive 2010 populationPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas tracts that have an estimate, a deprivation rank and a recorded 2010 population, the mean incarceration share is 2.1% (95% CI 2.0% to 2.2%)2.1% percent of children incarcerated on April 1, 2010Estimandpopulation-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 2.0% to 2.2%n71,478 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), races pooled, in tracts that have an incarceration estimate and a deprivation rankPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity AtlasNoteCounting each tract once gives a similar mean., weighted by tract population. It is 1.1% (95% CI 1.0% to 1.2%)1.1% percent of children incarcerated on April 1, 2010Estimandpopulation-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), bootstrap interval over counties; tenths hold equal numbers of tractsInterval95% CI 1.0% to 1.2%n7,147 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), races pooled, in tracts that have an incarceration estimate and a deprivation rank, in the least deprived tenth of tractsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas in the least deprived tenth of tracts and 3.3% (95% CI 3.1% to 3.5%)3.3% percent of children incarcerated on April 1, 2010Estimandpopulation-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), bootstrap interval over counties; tenths hold equal numbers of tractsInterval95% CI 3.1% to 3.5%n7,233 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), races pooled, in tracts that have an incarceration estimate and a deprivation rank, in the most deprived tenth of tractsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas in the most deprived, and the tract rank and the share have a correlation of +0.28 (95% CI 0.25 to 0.30)+0.28 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted correlation of the tract incarceration share with the tract deprivation rank, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.25 to 0.30n71,478 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), races pooled, in tracts that have an incarceration estimate and a deprivation rankPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas. The first tab of Figure 5 shows that the rise is gradual across most of the range and steeper in the most deprived tenth. The Atlas is built on 2010 tracts and the deprivation index on 2020 tracts, so each 2010 tract takes the land-area-weighted mean rank of the 2020 tracts that overlap it. The index uses data for 2019 to 2023 and the children grew up in the 1980s and 1990s, so the rank describes the tracts as they are now.

Figure 5

Incarceration of children from low-income families rose with tract deprivation and was higher for Black than for white children in the same tracts

Percent incarcerated on April 1, 2010, among children from low-income families born 1978 to 1983, by the deprivation of the tract where they grew up, ranked on 2019-2023 data

All children, by deprivationBlack and white children in the same tracts

Incarceration of children from low-income families rose with tract deprivation, from 1.1% in the least deprived tenth of tracts to 3.3% in the most deprived

Percent of children from low-income families incarcerated on April 1, 2010, by percentile of the tract's Area Deprivation Index national rank (built from 2019-2023 data), races pooled, children born 1978 to 1983

Tract deprivation rank (ADI national percentile; 1 = least deprived, 100 = most deprived)

The line rises from left to right, steeply only in the most deprived tenth. Each point is the population-weighted mean for the tracts at one percentile of the deprivation rank, with a 95% interval from a bootstrap over counties; the correlation across all 71,478 tracts is +0.28.

Show data

Data for Incarceration of children from low-income families rose with tract deprivation and was higher for Black than for white children in the same tracts, All children, by deprivation

conf_high	conf_low	estimate	n	percentile
1.02	0.480	0.756	630	1
1.02	0.572	0.782	642	2
1.12	0.785	0.961	566	3
1.15	0.825	0.967	748	4
1.26	0.847	1.04	614	5
1.40	0.948	1.15	765	6
1.23	0.845	1.03	587	7
1.43	1.06	1.23	775	8
1.43	1.02	1.21	623	9
1.44	1.05	1.24	796	10
1.55	1.19	1.36	565	11
1.43	1.07	1.24	823	12
1.44	1.11	1.29	647	13
1.43	1.10	1.26	824	14
1.54	1.18	1.36	649	15
1.69	1.37	1.51	846	16
1.66	1.26	1.47	644	17
1.63	1.37	1.50	832	18
1.77	1.43	1.60	661	19
1.73	1.45	1.59	815	20
1.71	1.40	1.56	618	21
1.86	1.47	1.65	820	22
1.85	1.46	1.65	597	23
1.86	1.58	1.71	825	24
1.86	1.53	1.69	643	25
1.82	1.52	1.67	825	26
1.93	1.58	1.75	651	27
1.88	1.58	1.73	778	28
1.78	1.49	1.63	593	29
1.97	1.62	1.80	878	30
1.92	1.60	1.75	647	31
2.08	1.76	1.91	790	32
1.96	1.64	1.79	612	33
2.05	1.77	1.91	781	34
2.16	1.81	1.98	633	35
1.90	1.65	1.78	805	36
2.19	1.78	1.99	665	37
2.13	1.80	1.97	809	38
2.08	1.78	1.93	591	39
2.08	1.75	1.91	753	40
2.19	1.85	2.02	662	41
2.20	1.89	2.05	840	42
2.08	1.74	1.91	619	43
2.14	1.83	1.99	792	44
2.31	1.97	2.14	638	45
2.26	1.94	2.10	809	46
2.23	1.93	2.08	622	47
2.39	2.05	2.21	837	48
2.38	2.05	2.21	605	49
2.32	1.98	2.14	853	50
2.32	2.00	2.16	658	51
2.42	2.13	2.28	819	52
2.26	1.97	2.11	687	53
2.29	2.00	2.14	828	54
2.24	1.98	2.11	647	55
2.44	2.14	2.29	831	56
2.38	2.08	2.23	638	57
2.41	2.14	2.27	842	58
2.44	2.17	2.31	724	59
2.61	2.32	2.46	822	60
2.60	2.31	2.45	673	61
2.51	2.21	2.35	853	62
2.45	2.14	2.31	638	63
2.56	2.27	2.41	807	64
2.45	2.17	2.31	708	65
2.43	2.15	2.29	847	66
2.53	2.24	2.39	694	67
2.61	2.26	2.44	859	68
2.44	2.12	2.28	665	69
2.67	2.36	2.52	824	70
2.59	2.28	2.44	678	71
2.60	2.30	2.45	837	72
2.58	2.25	2.42	667	73
2.60	2.26	2.43	832	74
2.65	2.32	2.49	725	75
2.67	2.36	2.51	787	76
2.70	2.38	2.54	650	77
2.66	2.37	2.51	851	78
2.65	2.34	2.50	709	79
2.62	2.32	2.46	848	80
2.70	2.35	2.53	642	81
2.88	2.56	2.73	833	82
2.70	2.38	2.54	646	83
2.88	2.52	2.70	766	84
2.67	2.30	2.48	643	85
2.86	2.52	2.69	835	86
2.83	2.46	2.65	611	87
2.86	2.53	2.69	730	88
2.91	2.52	2.72	649	89
2.93	2.54	2.73	782	90
3.11	2.68	2.89	579	91
3.17	2.76	2.96	747	92
3.26	2.74	3.00	576	93
3.49	2.88	3.20	694	94
3.49	3.00	3.24	528	95
3.75	3.24	3.49	648	96
3.89	3.29	3.59	525	97
4.15	3.67	3.91	603	98
4.44	3.90	4.18	547	99
4.51	3.96	4.23	603	100

Black and white children raised in the same tract

The Atlas also reports incarceration separately for Black and white children, who are non-Hispanic in its race groups as they are in the Collection,[5] and that allows a comparison inside one tract. A tract qualifies when both estimates exist and its 2010 population is positive, the same rules as in Chapter 3.3, Race, income and mobility: 27,79527,795 tractsEstimandcount of tractsWeightsnone (full count)Population2010 census tracts with an incarceration estimate for Black and for white children and a positive 2010 populationPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas tracts in 1,4681,468 countiesEstimandcount of countiesWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties with at least one tract in the comparisonPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas counties qualify, and they hold 130.5 million130.5 million peopleEstimandsum of 2010 census tract populationWeightsnone (full count)Populationresidents of the tracts in the same-tract comparisonPeriod2010 censusSourceOpportunity Atlas people, 42.3%42.3% percent of the 2010 U.S. populationEstimandpopulation of the same-tract comparison tracts as a share of the U.S. populationWeightsnone (full count)Populationresidents of the United StatesPeriod2010 censusSourceOpportunity Atlas of the 2010 population. The tracts with both estimates are those with enough children of both groups, so they are not a sample of all tracts.

In these tracts, weighted by population, 5.2% (95% CI 5.0% to 5.3%)5.2% percent of children incarcerated on April 1, 2010Estimandpopulation-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 5.0% to 5.3%n27,795 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationBlack children raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in tracts where the Atlas also estimates the other groupPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity AtlasNoteCounting each tract once gives a similar mean. of Black children from low-income families were incarcerated against 1.9% (95% CI 1.8% to 2.0%)1.9% percent of children incarcerated on April 1, 2010Estimandpopulation-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 1.8% to 2.0%n27,795 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationwhite children raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in tracts where the Atlas also estimates the other groupPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity AtlasNoteCounting each tract once gives a similar mean. of white children, a gap of 3.2 (95% CI 3.1 to 3.4)3.2 percentage points of incarceration, Black minus whiteEstimandmean over tracts of the Black minus white difference, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 3.1 to 3.4n27,795 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in tracts where the Atlas estimates both Black and white childrenPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas points and a ratio of 2.7 (95% CI 2.5 to 2.8)2.7 ratio of the Black to the white incarceration shareEstimandratio of the population-weighted means over tracts, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 2.5 to 2.8n27,795 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in tracts where the Atlas estimates both Black and white childrenPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas. The Black share is higher than the white share in 73.8% (95% CI 72.9% to 74.7%)73.8% percent of tracts in which the Black incarceration share is higher than the white shareEstimandshare of tracts (each counted once), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 72.9% to 74.7%n27,795 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in tracts where the Atlas estimates both Black and white childrenPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity AtlasNoteWeighting tracts by 2010 population gives a similar share. Privacy noise pulls a share like this toward an even split. of these tracts.

Each tract estimate rests on a modest number of children, and the Atlas adds noise to protect privacy. Noise of that kind spreads the Black and white estimates in both directions, so it pulls the share of tracts with a higher Black rate toward an even split, not away from one.

The gap is present at every level of tract deprivation (the second tab of Figure 5). In the least deprived tenth of these tracts, 3.8% (95% CI 3.4% to 4.2%)3.8% percent of children incarcerated on April 1, 2010Estimandpopulation-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), bootstrap interval over counties; tenths hold equal numbers of tractsInterval95% CI 3.4% to 4.2%n2,742 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationBlack children raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in the least deprived tenth of tracts that have both estimates and a deprivation rankPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas of Black children and 1.2% (95% CI 1.1% to 1.4%)1.2% percent of children incarcerated on April 1, 2010Estimandpopulation-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), bootstrap interval over counties; tenths hold equal numbers of tractsInterval95% CI 1.1% to 1.4%n2,742 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationwhite children raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in the least deprived tenth of tracts that have both estimates and a deprivation rankPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas of white children were incarcerated, a gap of 2.6 (95% CI 2.2 to 2.9)2.6 percentage points of incarceration, Black minus whiteEstimandmean over tracts of the Black minus white difference, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 2.2 to 2.9n2,742 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in the least deprived tenth of tracts that have both estimates and a deprivation rankPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas points. In the most deprived tenth the shares were 6.4% (95% CI 6.1% to 6.7%)6.4% percent of children incarcerated on April 1, 2010Estimandpopulation-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), bootstrap interval over counties; tenths hold equal numbers of tractsInterval95% CI 6.1% to 6.7%n2,769 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationBlack children raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in the most deprived tenth of tracts that have both estimates and a deprivation rankPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas and 2.6% (95% CI 2.4% to 2.8%)2.6% percent of children incarcerated on April 1, 2010Estimandpopulation-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), bootstrap interval over counties; tenths hold equal numbers of tractsInterval95% CI 2.4% to 2.8%n2,769 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationwhite children raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in the most deprived tenth of tracts that have both estimates and a deprivation rankPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas, a gap of 3.8 (95% CI 3.4 to 4.1)3.8 percentage points of incarceration, Black minus whiteEstimandmean over tracts of the Black minus white difference, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 3.4 to 4.1n2,769 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in the most deprived tenth of tracts that have both estimates and a deprivation rankPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas. The gap in points is larger in the most deprived tenth, while the ratio of the Black share to the white share is smaller there, 2.5 (95% CI 2.2 to 2.7)2.5 ratio of the Black to the white incarceration shareEstimandratio of the population-weighted tenth means, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 2.2 to 2.7n2,769 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in the most deprived tenth of tracts that have both estimates and a deprivation rankPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas against 3.1 (95% CI 2.6 to 3.5)3.1 ratio of the Black to the white incarceration shareEstimandratio of the population-weighted tenth means, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 2.6 to 3.5n2,742 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in the least deprived tenth of tracts that have both estimates and a deprivation rankPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas, a fall of 0.6 (95% CI 0.1 to 1.1)0.6 ratio of the Black to the white incarceration share in the least deprived tenth of tracts minus the ratio in the most deprived tenthEstimanddifference of two ratios of population-weighted tenth means, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.1 to 1.1n27,690 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in tracts where the Atlas estimates both Black and white children and a deprivation rankPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas. Black children in the least deprived tenth of tracts were incarcerated more often than white children in the most deprived tenth, by 1.2 (95% CI 0.7 to 1.6)1.2 percentage points of incarceration: Black children in the least deprived tenth of tracts minus white children in the most deprived tenthEstimanddifference of two population-weighted tenth means, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.7 to 1.6n27,690 tractsWeights2010 census tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution), in tracts where the Atlas estimates both Black and white children and a deprivation rankPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010SourceOpportunity Atlas points. The gap does not close when tracts are compared at the same level of deprivation.

Evidence on whether suspension and detention change later outcomes

The comparisons above are descriptions. Two studies test whether being suspended or incarcerated changes what happens next, and each is reported under its own design.

Both estimates apply to the settings studied, one school district and one county, and to the years of those data. Neither says why suspension rates or incarceration shares differ across the districts and tracts in this chapter.

What these data cannot show

A suspension rate records what districts reported, not what children did. A higher rate in a deprived district, or for Black students, is consistent with more disruptive conduct, with harsher responses to the same conduct, with both, and with differences in how districts count, and these data cannot tell them apart. The counts are for a pandemic year, are self-reported, and omit the suppressed cells. The 3838 school districtsEstimandcount of districts left out of the dose, funnel and map for want of a countWeightsnone (full count)Populationdistricts that have a deprivation rank and at least 100 students but report no suspension countPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection districts with no count include some of the largest in the country, and charter, regional and single-grade-span districts have no deprivation rank, so the districts here are not all of the districts. In several states, among them Florida, Maryland and California, the districts in the analysis hold less than 75%75% percent of enrolled studentsEstimandminimum share of students in the districts that report a count (a rule, not an estimate)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)Populationcounties drawn and states ranked on the mapPeriod2020-21 school yearSourceCivil Rights Data Collection of enrolled students, so no state rate is given for them. The Area Deprivation Index understates deprivation in high-cost cities (Chapter 10.2, The anatomy of a deprivation index), and a district's rank averages over tracts that differ a great deal. The map assigns each district to one county although some span several.

The incarceration part has its own limits. The Atlas measures incarceration on one day, so it counts who was incarcerated on that day and not who was ever incarcerated, and it pools girls and boys, because race by gender is not in the staged data. Each tract estimate is noisy, the weights are tract population and not the number of children, and a tract with both a Black and a white estimate is one with enough children of both groups. A same-tract comparison removes differences between neighborhoods but not differences in family wealth, in the block, in schools or in how police and courts treat the children. Both parts describe places and groups, not individual children, and they describe different cohorts: no child here is followed from a suspension to a later incarceration, and the districts of 2020 to 2021 are not the tracts where the children of 1978 to 1983 grew up.

---

Data sources

• Civil Rights Data CollectionCivil Rights Data Collection 2020-21 school year: students suspended out of school, expelled, referred to law enforcement and arrested, and enrollment, by district, with Black and white students separatelyYears: 2020-21 school year · Weights: none (counts reported by districts); district rates weighted by enrollment · License: Public domain (U.S. Department of Education, Office for Civil Rights)
• Area Deprivation IndexNeighborhood Atlas Area Deprivation Index 2023 (v4.0.1), tract national rank, averaged to districts and to 2010 tractsYears: 2023 release (version 4.0.1; built on ACS 2019-2023) · Weights: 2019-2023 tract population within districts; land area within 2010 tracts · License: Free for non-commercial use; cite the Neighborhood Atlas and Kind and Buckingham
• American Community SurveyACS 2019-2023 tract population, used only to weight the tracts of a district when its deprivation rank is averagedYears: 2019-2023 (5-year) · Weights: 2019-2023 tract population · License: Public domain (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Opportunity AtlasTract incarceration shares of children from low-income families, children born 1978 to 1983, incarcerated on April 1, 2010, native 2010 tracts, genders pooled, by raceYears: 1978-1983 birth cohorts (2018 release) · Weights: 2010 census tract population · License: Public use (Opportunity Insights and the U.S. Census Bureau)
• USDA Food Access Research Atlas2010 census population of each 2010 tract, used only as the weight for Opportunity Atlas comparisonsYears: 2019 release (population from the 2010 census) · Weights: none (census counts) · License: Public domain (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service)

All data sources

Methods

This chapter compares out-of-school suspension rates of school districts in the 2020 to 2021 school year across tenths of district deprivation, Black and white students in the same districts, and the share of children from low-income families incarcerated on April 1, 2010, across census tracts. Only districts that the book's geography file assigns a deprivation rank are analyzed, so charter, regional and single-grade-span reporting districts are left out. A student suspended at two schools counts at each, and in-school suspensions are not included. The deprivation index is built from 2019-2023 data, so it describes the tracts as they are now and not as they were when these children grew up in the 1980s and 1990s.

References

1. Skiba, Russell J.; Michael, Robert S.; Nardo, Abra Carroll; Peterson, Reece L. (2002). The Color of Discipline: Sources of Racial and Gender Disproportionality in School Punishment. The Urban Review 34(4): 317-342. doi:10.1023/A:1021320817372
2. U.S. Government Accountability Office (2018). K-12 Education: Discipline Disparities for Black Students, Boys, and Students with Disabilities. GAO-18-258. www.gao.gov/products/gao-18-258
3. Kind, Amy J. H.; Buckingham, William R. (2018). Making Neighborhood-Disadvantage Metrics Accessible: The Neighborhood Atlas. New England Journal of Medicine 378(26): 2456-2458. doi:10.1056/NEJMp1802313
4. Chetty, Raj; Friedman, John N.; Hendren, Nathaniel; Jones, Maggie R.; Porter, Sonya R. (2018). The Opportunity Atlas: Mapping the Childhood Roots of Social Mobility. NBER Working Paper 25147. doi:10.3386/w25147
5. Chetty, Raj; Hendren, Nathaniel; Jones, Maggie R.; Porter, Sonya R. (2020). Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 135(2): 711-783. doi:10.1093/qje/qjz042
6. Bacher-Hicks, Andrew; Billings, Stephen B.; Deming, David J. (2024). The School-to-Prison Pipeline: Long-Run Impacts of School Suspensions on Adult Crime. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 16(4): 165-193. doi:10.1257/pol.20230052
7. Aizer, Anna; Doyle, Joseph J., Jr. (2015). Juvenile Incarceration, Human Capital, and Future Crime: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 130(2): 759-803. doi:10.1093/qje/qjv003

How to cite

@misc{singh2026schooldisciplineandincarceration,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {School discipline and incarceration},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/school-discipline-and-incarceration},
  note = {In ZIP Code Destiny. Published 9 October 2026.}
}

Reading paths

• Race and place