Chapter 14.7

Counties where donors and voters diverge

Across counties, donors lean left where the Democratic vote is higher (correlation −0.85, weighted by votes), and 74 of the 98 Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors are at least 30% Black.

Author: Vishal Singh
Affiliation: NYU Stern
Published: 30 September 2026

Under this chapter's definition, the donor pool leans opposite to the 2020 presidential vote in 570 of 2,839 counties, or 20.1%. We call these counties divergent. A county's donor lean is the mean CFscore of its reliable donors, on a scale where negative is left and positive is right, and a county is divergent when it voted Democratic and its donor lean is right of zero, or voted Republican and its donor lean is left of zero. The count depends on the definition, and Figure 10 gives counts from 112 to 1,030 counties, or 3.9% to 36.3% of the counties under each definition. Divergent counties cast 16.0% of the two-party votes and hold 12.7% of the reliable donors, a smaller share than their 20.1% of counties, and 9 of the 100 counties with the most votes are divergent.

Donor lean and the vote move together across counties. Donor lean falls as the Democratic share rises, with a correlation of −0.85 (95% CI −0.87 to −0.83) when counties are weighted by their votes and −0.67 (95% CI −0.70 to −0.65) when each county counts once. The exceptions come in two groups. 98 Democratic-voting counties have right-leaning donors, and 74 of them are at least 30% Black. 472 Republican-voting counties have left-leaning donors, and they appear in every region.

Zero is where the CFscore scale changes sign, and it is not the middle of the data. Reliable donors average −0.274 (95% CI −0.275 to −0.273) on the scale, so the pool as a whole leans left, while the average county has a donor lean of +0.18, because the counties with the most donors lean left. A county called left-leaning here can therefore sit to the right of the average donor, and 368 of the 472 Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors do. The standard deviation of reliable donors' scores is 1.01, which is the scale for reading a county lean such as the 0.25 cut used below.

How donors and votes are measured

The donor data are the Stanford DIME files [1]. DIME gives each individual donor one CFscore, estimated from the recipients the donor gave to, and one most recent county. The file holds 36.4 million donors with a score and a county. This chapter keeps the 4.7 million of them (13.0%) who are reliable, meaning that they gave to at least 8 distinct recipients and that their score comes from their own giving. A county's pool is its reliable donors, and a county enters the analysis when its pool has at least 25 donors (the pool floor) and it has a 2020 return. That leaves 2,839 counties with 4.7 million reliable donors. The county vote is the Democratic share of the 2020 two-party presidential vote.

Two weightings appear throughout. A count or share of counties counts each county once. A correlation or regression is reported under both weightings, counting each county once and weighting by 2020 two-party votes, because the two answer different questions: whether a pattern holds place by place, and whether it holds where voters live.Intervals on correlations are 95% confidence intervals from a bootstrap, which recomputes the correlation on many random resamples of the counties, drawn with a fixed seed, and reads the interval from the spread of the results. Counts and shares of counties are full counts and carry no interval. The mean of a single county's donors has a standard error, which the map tooltip, the named counties and the section on pool size use. The distribution of donor scores over time is the subject of Chapter 14.4, The ideology of the donor pool, and where the donors live is the subject of Chapter 14.2, The geography of donations (planned).

Donor lean tracks the vote in most counties

Figure 1 marks the divergent counties against the counties where donors and vote lean the same way.

Figure 1

Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors cluster in the South; Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are in every region

Counties classed by whether the 2020 two-party presidential vote and the mean CFscore of the county's reliable donors lean the same way (negative CFscore is left, positive is right)

Loading county values

Donor lean against the 2020 vote

No data (3,143 counties)

Select a class to show only those places.

Find a county

Hover or tap a county for its value, or search by name. Zoom with the buttons on the map, then drag to move it.

Alaska draws as no data. Its election returns are reported by election district, and the district codes cannot be matched to boroughs and census areas.

Look for the two groups of divergent counties: Democratic vote with right-leaning donors, concentrated in the South and most often in Mississippi, Georgia, Texas and Alabama, and Republican vote with left-leaning donors, in every region. The groups hold 98 and 472 of the 2,839 counties in the analysis. The tooltip says whether a county clears both cut points, a Democratic share of 55% or more with a donor lean of 0.25 or more, or a share below 45% with a lean below minus 0.25; 112 counties do, and they cast 1.2% of the two-party votes.Note: A county with too few reliable donors, and every county in Alaska and Hawaii, which have no donors in the county-matched donor file, is drawn as no data.Note: Votes are full counts. The tooltip gives a county's donor lean with a 95% interval that treats its reliable donors as independent draws, and the number of reliable donors; a county with a small pool has a wide interval.Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights

Among the Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors, 89 are in the South, 6 in the West, 3 in the Midwest and 0 in the Northeast. Mississippi alone has 16. The Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are spread across the Midwest (184), the South (139), the West (76) and the Northeast (73). The first group casts 4.5% of the two-party votes and the second 11.6%.

Figure 2 puts the same two measures on axes. Divergent counties are the dots in the upper right and lower left quadrants, and many lie close to a cut point. Of the Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors, 38.8% have a Democratic share below 55% and 50.0% have a donor lean within 0.25 of zero. The same shares for Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are 19.9% (a Democratic share of 45% or more) and 73.1%. The tooltip of the map flags the counties that clear both cut points. They number 112, of which 27 are Democratic-voting counties with a Democratic share of 55% or more and a donor lean of 0.25 or more, 26 of them in the South, and 85 are Republican-voting counties with a share below 45% and a donor lean below minus 0.25, in all four regions. Together they are 3.9% of counties and cast 1.2% of the two-party votes.

Figure 2

Donor lean falls as the Democratic share of the vote rises, and the divergent counties lie in the two quadrants where the two measures disagree

Mean CFscore of reliable donors against the Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, one dot per county (n = 2,839 counties), 2020 vote

Vote and donors lean the same way
Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Dot area: Two-party votes, 2020420,0001,500,0004,200,000

Show data

Data for Donor lean falls as the Democratic share of the vote rises, and the divergent counties lie in the two quadrants where the two measures disagree
County	Democratic share (%)	Donor lean (mean CFscore)	Donor lean, 95% interval, low	Donor lean, 95% interval, high	Two-party votes	Reliable donors	Group
Autauga, AL	27.4	+0.680	+0.54	+0.82	27,341	223	Vote and donors lean the same way
Baldwin, AL	22.7	+0.364	+0.31	+0.42	108,122	1,914	Vote and donors lean the same way
Barbour, AL	46.1	+0.441	+0.24	+0.64	10,438	100	Vote and donors lean the same way
Bibb, AL	20.9	+0.700	+0.43	+0.97	9,511	47	Vote and donors lean the same way
Blount, AL	9.7	+0.468	+0.29	+0.64	27,351	158	Vote and donors lean the same way
Bullock, AL	75.0	+0.369	+0.04	+0.69	4,592	40	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Butler, AL	42.1	+0.759	+0.53	+0.98	9,423	61	Vote and donors lean the same way
Calhoun, AL	30.2	+0.462	+0.37	+0.55	50,317	522	Vote and donors lean the same way
Chambers, AL	42.1	+0.485	+0.25	+0.72	15,118	83	Vote and donors lean the same way
Cherokee, AL	13.3	+0.572	+0.37	+0.78	12,207	121	Vote and donors lean the same way
Chilton, AL	16.0	+0.650	+0.45	+0.85	19,158	112	Vote and donors lean the same way
Clarke, AL	44.0	+0.584	+0.35	+0.82	13,079	66	Vote and donors lean the same way
Clay, AL	18.4	+0.740	+0.50	+0.98	6,868	51	Vote and donors lean the same way
Cleburne, AL	9.4	+0.852	+0.54	+1.16	7,159	35	Vote and donors lean the same way
Coffee, AL	23.1	+0.690	+0.57	+0.82	21,975	258	Vote and donors lean the same way
Colbert, AL	30.3	+0.335	+0.20	+0.47	27,546	259	Vote and donors lean the same way
Conecuh, AL	46.3	+0.734	+0.41	+1.06	6,408	32	Vote and donors lean the same way
Coosa, AL	33.1	+0.357	−0.07	+0.78	5,427	27	Vote and donors lean the same way
Covington, AL	15.7	+0.421	+0.24	+0.61	17,307	140	Vote and donors lean the same way
Crenshaw, AL	25.9	+0.425	+0.07	+0.78	6,564	31	Vote and donors lean the same way
Cullman, AL	10.8	+0.516	+0.40	+0.63	41,358	355	Vote and donors lean the same way
Dale, AL	26.5	+0.590	+0.43	+0.75	19,473	184	Vote and donors lean the same way
Dallas, AL	68.9	+0.209	+0.03	+0.39	17,754	138	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
DeKalb, AL	14.7	+0.385	+0.25	+0.52	29,048	243	Vote and donors lean the same way
Elmore, AL	25.6	+0.557	+0.44	+0.68	40,531	344	Vote and donors lean the same way
Escambia, AL	31.2	+0.895	+0.75	+1.04	15,787	120	Vote and donors lean the same way
Etowah, AL	24.6	+0.381	+0.28	+0.48	47,095	475	Vote and donors lean the same way
Fayette, AL	16.0	+0.727	+0.46	+0.99	8,695	47	Vote and donors lean the same way
Franklin, AL	16.7	+0.546	+0.34	+0.75	12,462	88	Vote and donors lean the same way
Geneva, AL	12.8	+0.967	+0.76	+1.18	12,443	68	Vote and donors lean the same way
Greene, AL	81.6	+0.066	−0.29	+0.42	4,759	29	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Hale, AL	59.5	+0.792	+0.49	+1.09	7,877	35	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Henry, AL	28.3	+0.755	+0.47	+1.04	9,213	53	Vote and donors lean the same way
Houston, AL	28.4	+0.697	+0.61	+0.78	45,535	592	Vote and donors lean the same way
Jackson, AL	15.9	+0.341	+0.16	+0.52	23,387	166	Vote and donors lean the same way
Jefferson, AL	56.7	+0.060	+0.03	+0.09	320,531	6,805	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Lamar, AL	13.7	+0.656	+0.36	+0.96	7,152	42	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lauderdale, AL	27.3	+0.219	+0.13	+0.31	43,636	574	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lawrence, AL	22.4	+0.357	+0.10	+0.61	15,884	78	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lee, AL	39.8	+0.137	+0.07	+0.20	70,081	1,117	Vote and donors lean the same way
Limestone, AL	28.3	+0.348	+0.24	+0.45	48,312	490	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lowndes, AL	73.0	+0.581	+0.22	+0.94	6,808	32	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Macon, AL	82.2	−0.281	−0.49	−0.07	8,649	90	Vote and donors lean the same way
Madison, AL	45.9	+0.137	+0.10	+0.17	190,066	4,343	Vote and donors lean the same way
Marengo, AL	50.7	+0.433	+0.17	+0.70	10,831	64	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Marion, AL	10.7	+0.541	+0.37	+0.71	13,668	119	Vote and donors lean the same way
Marshall, AL	15.2	+0.619	+0.52	+0.72	39,134	433	Vote and donors lean the same way
Mobile, AL	44.0	+0.429	+0.39	+0.47	180,717	2,624	Vote and donors lean the same way
Monroe, AL	42.0	+0.713	+0.47	+0.96	10,602	51	Vote and donors lean the same way
Montgomery, AL	66.0	+0.312	+0.27	+0.35	97,840	2,364	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Morgan, AL	25.0	+0.442	+0.36	+0.53	52,898	653	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pickens, AL	41.8	+0.589	+0.34	+0.84	9,616	54	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pike, AL	41.2	+0.653	+0.50	+0.81	13,678	145	Vote and donors lean the same way
Randolph, AL	20.5	+0.591	+0.32	+0.87	10,762	58	Vote and donors lean the same way
Russell, AL	53.2	−0.042	−0.23	+0.14	21,092	143	Vote and donors lean the same way
St. Clair, AL	17.6	+0.481	+0.35	+0.61	43,910	309	Vote and donors lean the same way
Shelby, AL	29.4	+0.373	+0.32	+0.43	112,968	1,769	Vote and donors lean the same way
Sumter, AL	74.4	+0.470	+0.19	+0.75	6,246	56	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Talladega, AL	37.1	+0.472	+0.35	+0.60	35,373	277	Vote and donors lean the same way
Tallapoosa, AL	28.1	+0.527	+0.37	+0.68	20,822	179	Vote and donors lean the same way
Tuscaloosa, AL	42.5	+0.137	+0.08	+0.20	88,882	1,319	Vote and donors lean the same way
Walker, AL	15.7	+0.659	+0.55	+0.77	30,836	265	Vote and donors lean the same way
Washington, AL	25.6	+0.546	+0.19	+0.90	8,822	36	Vote and donors lean the same way
Wilcox, AL	68.8	+0.643	+0.34	+0.95	5,881	36	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Winston, AL	8.7	+0.666	+0.44	+0.89	11,169	79	Vote and donors lean the same way
Apache, AZ	67.1	+0.003	−0.15	+0.16	34,735	245	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Cochise, AZ	40.0	−0.097	−0.15	−0.04	59,289	1,742	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Coconino, AZ	62.3	−0.528	−0.56	−0.49	71,750	2,490	Vote and donors lean the same way
Gila, AZ	32.7	+0.207	+0.11	+0.30	27,320	610	Vote and donors lean the same way
Graham, AZ	27.3	+0.370	+0.19	+0.55	14,783	166	Vote and donors lean the same way
Greenlee, AZ	32.7	+0.005	−0.34	+0.35	3,615	47	Vote and donors lean the same way
La Paz, AZ	30.4	+0.640	+0.43	+0.85	7,365	120	Vote and donors lean the same way
Maricopa, AZ	51.1	−0.112	−0.12	−0.10	2,036,439	60,280	Vote and donors lean the same way
Mohave, AZ	24.0	+0.447	+0.39	+0.50	103,366	1,858	Vote and donors lean the same way
Navajo, AZ	45.8	+0.232	+0.14	+0.32	51,040	729	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pima, AZ	59.5	−0.427	−0.44	−0.41	512,739	23,180	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pinal, AZ	41.2	−0.069	−0.11	−0.03	182,183	3,495	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Santa Cruz, AZ	68.0	−0.435	−0.52	−0.35	19,332	550	Vote and donors lean the same way
Yavapai, AZ	35.1	−0.070	−0.10	−0.04	141,129	5,698	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Yuma, AZ	46.9	+0.357	+0.29	+0.43	68,744	1,150	Vote and donors lean the same way
Arkansas, AR	29.7	+0.309	+0.18	+0.44	6,122	129	Vote and donors lean the same way
Ashley, AR	27.7	+0.631	+0.44	+0.83	7,673	78	Vote and donors lean the same way
Baxter, AR	22.6	+0.355	+0.24	+0.47	20,471	365	Vote and donors lean the same way
Benton, AR	36.4	+0.144	+0.10	+0.19	116,214	2,249	Vote and donors lean the same way
Boone, AR	18.3	+0.382	+0.25	+0.52	16,716	226	Vote and donors lean the same way
Bradley, AR	34.2	+0.305	+0.09	+0.52	3,549	53	Vote and donors lean the same way
Carroll, AR	35.1	−0.496	−0.60	−0.39	11,447	327	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Chicot, AR	56.3	+0.532	+0.31	+0.75	4,012	55	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Clark, AR	42.7	−0.062	−0.19	+0.06	8,054	194	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Clay, AR	19.1	+0.206	−0.03	+0.44	5,048	55	Vote and donors lean the same way
Cleburne, AR	16.1	+0.530	+0.39	+0.67	12,316	206	Vote and donors lean the same way
Cleveland, AR	18.5	+0.745	+0.49	+1.00	3,518	34	Vote and donors lean the same way
Columbia, AR	33.8	+0.553	+0.42	+0.69	8,314	163	Vote and donors lean the same way
Conway, AR	31.5	+0.284	+0.10	+0.47	8,309	123	Vote and donors lean the same way
Craighead, AR	31.8	+0.254	+0.18	+0.33	37,479	729	Vote and donors lean the same way
Crawford, AR	21.0	+0.366	+0.22	+0.51	23,566	222	Vote and donors lean the same way
Crittenden, AR	53.7	+0.298	+0.15	+0.44	15,847	204	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Cross, AR	26.4	+0.092	−0.06	+0.24	6,718	125	Vote and donors lean the same way
Desha, AR	51.2	+0.270	+0.08	+0.46	3,937	61	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Drew, AR	35.8	+0.426	+0.23	+0.63	6,775	95	Vote and donors lean the same way
Faulkner, AR	34.8	+0.105	+0.04	+0.17	52,768	860	Vote and donors lean the same way
Franklin, AR	18.6	+0.355	+0.11	+0.60	6,977	70	Vote and donors lean the same way
Fulton, AR	20.7	+0.331	0.00	+0.66	4,996	49	Vote and donors lean the same way
Garland, AR	32.6	+0.085	+0.02	+0.15	43,114	1,070	Vote and donors lean the same way
Grant, AR	15.7	+0.292	+0.05	+0.53	8,062	81	Vote and donors lean the same way
Greene, AR	19.4	+0.290	+0.16	+0.42	15,728	201	Vote and donors lean the same way
Hempstead, AR	32.4	+0.477	+0.27	+0.69	6,608	72	Vote and donors lean the same way
Hot Spring, AR	25.1	+0.262	+0.06	+0.47	12,284	116	Vote and donors lean the same way
Howard, AR	28.5	+0.155	−0.10	+0.41	4,707	55	Vote and donors lean the same way
Independence, AR	20.0	+0.221	+0.10	+0.34	14,056	252	Vote and donors lean the same way
Izard, AR	18.1	+0.189	−0.08	+0.46	5,652	58	Vote and donors lean the same way
Jackson, AR	27.5	+0.181	+0.02	+0.35	4,958	93	Vote and donors lean the same way
Jefferson, AR	61.1	+0.163	+0.07	+0.25	24,502	388	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Johnson, AR	24.8	+0.077	−0.15	+0.30	9,221	93	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lafayette, AR	32.3	+0.576	+0.24	+0.91	2,596	26	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lawrence, AR	19.1	+0.620	+0.37	+0.87	5,649	50	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lee, AR	52.5	+0.409	+0.20	+0.62	2,709	41	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Little River, AR	24.8	+0.536	+0.15	+0.92	4,941	31	Vote and donors lean the same way
Logan, AR	19.3	+0.330	+0.10	+0.56	7,985	78	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lonoke, AR	22.6	+0.404	+0.30	+0.51	29,570	366	Vote and donors lean the same way
Madison, AR	21.6	+0.046	−0.22	+0.32	7,221	66	Vote and donors lean the same way
Marion, AR	20.9	+0.175	−0.04	+0.39	7,314	115	Vote and donors lean the same way
Miller, AR	26.3	+0.414	+0.26	+0.56	16,165	174	Vote and donors lean the same way
Mississippi, AR	38.5	+0.358	+0.23	+0.49	11,854	168	Vote and donors lean the same way
Monroe, AR	42.6	+0.596	+0.31	+0.88	2,692	35	Vote and donors lean the same way
Montgomery, AR	19.4	−0.025	−0.46	+0.41	3,777	27	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Nevada, AR	33.5	−0.148	−0.43	+0.13	3,209	32	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Newton, AR	18.2	−0.475	−0.76	−0.19	3,901	47	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Ouachita, AR	43.0	+0.482	+0.31	+0.66	9,289	131	Vote and donors lean the same way
Perry, AR	22.5	+0.252	−0.09	+0.60	4,491	38	Vote and donors lean the same way
Phillips, AR	60.0	−0.002	−0.17	+0.16	6,040	101	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pike, AR	15.5	+0.292	−0.08	+0.67	4,163	32	Vote and donors lean the same way
Poinsett, AR	19.4	+0.341	+0.14	+0.54	7,342	80	Vote and donors lean the same way
Polk, AR	15.0	+0.324	+0.10	+0.55	8,281	99	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pope, AR	24.2	+0.320	+0.21	+0.43	23,853	387	Vote and donors lean the same way
Prairie, AR	19.0	+0.301	0.00	+0.61	3,440	38	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pulaski, AR	61.5	−0.163	−0.19	−0.14	165,634	6,188	Vote and donors lean the same way
Randolph, AR	18.5	+0.174	−0.07	+0.42	6,570	66	Vote and donors lean the same way
St. Francis, AR	52.6	+0.051	−0.12	+0.23	6,846	101	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Saline, AR	28.9	+0.318	+0.23	+0.41	55,616	707	Vote and donors lean the same way
Searcy, AR	14.9	+0.434	+0.06	+0.81	3,953	34	Vote and donors lean the same way
Sebastian, AR	31.7	+0.359	+0.29	+0.43	45,685	795	Vote and donors lean the same way
Sevier, AR	22.3	+0.219	−0.07	+0.51	5,000	51	Vote and donors lean the same way
Sharp, AR	19.1	+0.318	+0.08	+0.56	7,336	82	Vote and donors lean the same way
Stone, AR	20.4	−0.072	−0.31	+0.16	5,796	86	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Union, AR	34.8	+0.616	+0.53	+0.71	16,062	328	Vote and donors lean the same way
Van Buren, AR	20.9	+0.008	−0.22	+0.24	7,627	96	Vote and donors lean the same way
Washington, AR	48.0	−0.346	−0.39	−0.31	91,328	2,238	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
White, AR	19.8	+0.410	+0.31	+0.51	30,160	392	Vote and donors lean the same way
Woodruff, AR	35.7	+0.129	−0.14	+0.40	2,399	36	Vote and donors lean the same way
Yell, AR	19.7	+0.370	+0.12	+0.61	6,510	67	Vote and donors lean the same way
Alameda, CA	81.9	−0.840	−0.85	−0.83	753,968	39,788	Vote and donors lean the same way
Alpine, CA	66.1	−0.565	−0.86	−0.27	720	37	Vote and donors lean the same way
Amador, CA	37.5	−0.183	−0.27	−0.09	21,738	601	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Butte, CA	50.9	−0.425	−0.46	−0.39	99,156	3,195	Vote and donors lean the same way
Calaveras, CA	37.8	−0.346	−0.42	−0.27	26,564	752	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Colusa, CA	41.5	+0.603	+0.46	+0.75	7,788	191	Vote and donors lean the same way
Contra Costa, CA	73.1	−0.706	−0.71	−0.70	569,263	32,404	Vote and donors lean the same way
Del Norte, CA	42.0	−0.404	−0.52	−0.28	11,138	296	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
El Dorado, CA	45.5	−0.318	−0.35	−0.28	113,459	3,482	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Fresno, CA	54.0	−0.054	−0.08	−0.03	357,489	6,335	Vote and donors lean the same way
Glenn, CA	36.1	+0.410	+0.26	+0.56	11,058	222	Vote and donors lean the same way
Humboldt, CA	67.3	−0.733	−0.76	−0.70	66,538	2,877	Vote and donors lean the same way
Imperial, CA	62.5	+0.191	+0.10	+0.28	55,525	619	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Inyo, CA	50.1	−0.354	−0.46	−0.24	9,254	367	Vote and donors lean the same way
Kern, CA	44.8	+0.166	+0.13	+0.20	297,850	4,703	Vote and donors lean the same way
Kings, CA	43.7	+0.363	+0.27	+0.46	42,771	557	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lake, CA	53.2	−0.516	−0.58	−0.45	28,064	886	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lassen, CA	23.8	+0.236	+0.06	+0.41	11,769	190	Vote and donors lean the same way
Los Angeles, CA	72.6	−0.592	−0.60	−0.59	4,174,415	163,108	Vote and donors lean the same way
Madera, CA	44.1	+0.063	−0.01	+0.13	52,546	1,085	Vote and donors lean the same way
Marin, CA	83.9	−0.808	−0.82	−0.80	152,900	17,069	Vote and donors lean the same way
Mariposa, CA	40.7	−0.366	−0.48	−0.25	10,038	342	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Mendocino, CA	68.4	−0.787	−0.82	−0.76	42,049	2,280	Vote and donors lean the same way
Merced, CA	55.4	+0.056	0.00	+0.12	88,388	1,336	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Modoc, CA	27.0	−0.146	−0.39	+0.10	4,259	87	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Mono, CA	61.5	−0.672	−0.78	−0.57	6,526	246	Vote and donors lean the same way
Monterey, CA	71.1	−0.507	−0.53	−0.48	160,252	6,087	Vote and donors lean the same way
Napa, CA	70.7	−0.604	−0.63	−0.58	70,493	3,603	Vote and donors lean the same way
Nevada, CA	57.6	−0.640	−0.67	−0.61	63,138	3,193	Vote and donors lean the same way
Orange, CA	54.6	−0.158	−0.17	−0.15	1,490,507	45,983	Vote and donors lean the same way
Placer, CA	46.6	−0.292	−0.32	−0.27	229,357	6,860	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Plumas, CA	41.4	−0.339	−0.45	−0.23	11,006	365	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Riverside, CA	54.1	−0.289	−0.30	−0.27	976,647	21,059	Vote and donors lean the same way
Sacramento, CA	63.0	−0.518	−0.53	−0.51	700,213	21,776	Vote and donors lean the same way
San Benito, CA	62.5	−0.327	−0.42	−0.24	28,218	570	Vote and donors lean the same way
San Bernardino, CA	55.4	−0.093	−0.11	−0.07	822,116	12,800	Vote and donors lean the same way
San Diego, CA	61.6	−0.356	−0.36	−0.35	1,564,744	54,884	Vote and donors lean the same way
San Francisco, CA	87.0	−0.866	−0.87	−0.86	434,573	45,868	Vote and donors lean the same way
San Joaquin, CA	57.1	−0.110	−0.14	−0.08	282,235	4,837	Vote and donors lean the same way
San Luis Obispo, CA	56.7	−0.497	−0.52	−0.47	155,746	7,100	Vote and donors lean the same way
San Mateo, CA	79.4	−0.680	−0.69	−0.67	366,973	24,189	Vote and donors lean the same way
Santa Barbara, CA	66.4	−0.523	−0.54	−0.50	195,699	9,410	Vote and donors lean the same way
Santa Clara, CA	74.2	−0.659	−0.67	−0.65	832,579	39,175	Vote and donors lean the same way
Santa Cruz, CA	80.9	−0.829	−0.84	−0.82	141,183	9,842	Vote and donors lean the same way
Shasta, CA	33.0	−0.025	−0.08	+0.03	90,789	2,004	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Sierra, CA	39.0	−0.589	−0.83	−0.35	1,872	59	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Siskiyou, CA	41.9	−0.376	−0.45	−0.30	22,883	748	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Solano, CA	65.5	−0.543	−0.57	−0.52	200,945	5,487	Vote and donors lean the same way
Sonoma, CA	76.4	−0.802	−0.81	−0.79	261,763	16,125	Vote and donors lean the same way
Stanislaus, CA	50.4	−0.094	−0.13	−0.06	209,986	3,633	Vote and donors lean the same way
Sutter, CA	41.6	+0.353	+0.28	+0.43	41,742	761	Vote and donors lean the same way
Tehama, CA	31.8	+0.127	+0.02	+0.23	28,052	471	Vote and donors lean the same way
Trinity, CA	47.2	−0.558	−0.70	−0.41	6,039	161	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Tulare, CA	46.0	+0.283	+0.24	+0.33	143,684	2,372	Vote and donors lean the same way
Tuolumne, CA	40.4	−0.327	−0.40	−0.25	29,667	904	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Ventura, CA	60.8	−0.369	−0.39	−0.35	413,595	13,838	Vote and donors lean the same way
Yolo, CA	71.2	−0.707	−0.73	−0.69	94,890	5,165	Vote and donors lean the same way
Yuba, CA	38.9	−0.024	−0.13	+0.08	28,906	444	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Adams, CO	58.4	−0.280	−0.31	−0.25	229,859	4,579	Vote and donors lean the same way
Alamosa, CO	49.6	−0.256	−0.39	−0.12	7,572	218	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Arapahoe, CO	62.7	−0.143	−0.16	−0.12	340,930	12,669	Vote and donors lean the same way
Archuleta, CO	41.9	−0.133	−0.25	−0.02	8,927	390	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Baca, CO	14.5	+0.857	+0.56	+1.15	2,184	35	Vote and donors lean the same way
Bent, CO	32.8	+0.177	−0.16	+0.51	2,235	44	Vote and donors lean the same way
Boulder, CO	78.9	−0.722	−0.73	−0.71	201,590	16,281	Vote and donors lean the same way
Broomfield, CO	64.1	−0.389	−0.44	−0.33	45,372	1,328	Vote and donors lean the same way
Chaffee, CO	53.5	−0.429	−0.51	−0.35	13,382	588	Vote and donors lean the same way
Clear Creek, CO	56.7	−0.287	−0.41	−0.16	6,358	280	Vote and donors lean the same way
Conejos, CO	46.1	−0.252	−0.47	−0.03	4,245	73	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Costilla, CO	63.9	−0.388	−0.65	−0.13	2,052	54	Vote and donors lean the same way
Crowley, CO	25.6	+0.546	+0.16	+0.93	1,708	34	Vote and donors lean the same way
Custer, CO	31.0	−0.008	−0.20	+0.18	3,586	150	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Delta, CO	31.0	−0.167	−0.26	−0.08	18,968	623	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Denver, CO	81.4	−0.617	−0.63	−0.61	384,911	23,946	Vote and donors lean the same way
Dolores, CO	23.8	−0.301	−0.66	+0.06	1,430	34	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Douglas, CO	46.3	+0.009	−0.02	+0.04	225,923	6,476	Vote and donors lean the same way
Eagle, CO	65.3	−0.381	−0.43	−0.33	28,480	1,278	Vote and donors lean the same way
Elbert, CO	24.2	+0.468	+0.35	+0.59	18,517	384	Vote and donors lean the same way
El Paso, CO	44.4	+0.075	+0.05	+0.10	364,769	9,653	Vote and donors lean the same way
Fremont, CO	29.6	+0.012	−0.09	+0.11	24,886	547	Vote and donors lean the same way
Garfield, CO	51.2	−0.297	−0.35	−0.24	30,144	1,288	Vote and donors lean the same way
Gilpin, CO	54.8	−0.415	−0.57	−0.26	4,056	162	Vote and donors lean the same way
Grand, CO	49.1	−0.170	−0.29	−0.05	9,593	321	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Gunnison, CO	65.6	−0.516	−0.60	−0.43	10,867	450	Vote and donors lean the same way
Hinsdale, CO	41.9	−0.526	−0.87	−0.18	608	28	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Huerfano, CO	48.5	−0.318	−0.49	−0.15	4,279	152	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Jefferson, CO	59.5	−0.256	−0.27	−0.24	366,813	15,446	Vote and donors lean the same way
Kit Carson, CO	17.4	+0.885	+0.69	+1.08	3,806	93	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lake, CO	60.6	−0.395	−0.60	−0.19	3,800	96	Vote and donors lean the same way
La Plata, CO	59.1	−0.451	−0.49	−0.41	34,781	1,929	Vote and donors lean the same way
Larimer, CO	58.0	−0.393	−0.41	−0.37	217,609	8,555	Vote and donors lean the same way
Las Animas, CO	44.9	−0.059	−0.23	+0.11	7,781	178	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Lincoln, CO	18.0	+0.797	+0.53	+1.06	2,605	59	Vote and donors lean the same way
Logan, CO	21.5	+0.716	+0.58	+0.86	10,305	214	Vote and donors lean the same way
Mesa, CO	35.7	+0.103	+0.06	+0.14	88,430	2,839	Vote and donors lean the same way
Mineral, CO	42.6	−0.297	−0.70	+0.11	744	29	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Moffat, CO	17.5	+0.549	+0.35	+0.74	6,873	123	Vote and donors lean the same way
Montezuma, CO	38.5	−0.171	−0.27	−0.07	15,142	512	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Montrose, CO	31.4	+0.061	−0.02	+0.14	24,457	733	Vote and donors lean the same way
Morgan, CO	28.8	+0.367	+0.20	+0.53	13,469	198	Vote and donors lean the same way
Otero, CO	38.5	+0.364	+0.17	+0.56	9,361	136	Vote and donors lean the same way
Ouray, CO	60.0	−0.439	−0.56	−0.32	3,942	279	Vote and donors lean the same way
Park, CO	41.2	−0.178	−0.31	−0.04	11,894	281	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Phillips, CO	19.9	+0.995	+0.77	+1.22	2,444	57	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pitkin, CO	76.4	−0.479	−0.53	−0.43	11,769	1,134	Vote and donors lean the same way
Prowers, CO	26.7	+0.456	+0.23	+0.68	5,466	98	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pueblo, CO	50.9	−0.090	−0.13	−0.04	86,024	2,174	Vote and donors lean the same way
Rio Blanco, CO	15.5	+0.518	+0.23	+0.80	3,622	63	Vote and donors lean the same way
Rio Grande, CO	40.5	+0.218	+0.03	+0.41	6,155	140	Vote and donors lean the same way
Routt, CO	64.1	−0.390	−0.46	−0.32	16,507	824	Vote and donors lean the same way
Saguache, CO	57.1	−0.539	−0.68	−0.39	3,297	161	Vote and donors lean the same way
San Miguel, CO	77.5	−0.701	−0.77	−0.63	5,060	380	Vote and donors lean the same way
Sedgwick, CO	21.2	+0.615	+0.19	+1.04	1,422	26	Vote and donors lean the same way
Summit, CO	70.4	−0.455	−0.52	−0.39	17,953	818	Vote and donors lean the same way
Teller, CO	32.0	+0.032	−0.08	+0.14	16,519	454	Vote and donors lean the same way
Washington, CO	12.4	+1.023	+0.79	+1.26	2,964	52	Vote and donors lean the same way
Weld, CO	40.7	+0.127	+0.09	+0.17	162,205	3,242	Vote and donors lean the same way
Yuma, CO	16.0	+0.768	+0.62	+0.92	4,892	160	Vote and donors lean the same way
Fairfield, CT	63.8	−0.250	−0.26	−0.24	466,544	30,979	Vote and donors lean the same way
Hartford, CT	64.1	−0.301	−0.31	−0.29	442,392	20,961	Vote and donors lean the same way
Litchfield, CT	47.4	−0.317	−0.34	−0.29	105,765	5,480	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Middlesex, CT	58.3	−0.305	−0.33	−0.28	97,513	5,051	Vote and donors lean the same way
New Haven, CT	58.8	−0.365	−0.38	−0.35	412,521	17,560	Vote and donors lean the same way
New London, CT	58.2	−0.291	−0.31	−0.27	136,569	6,270	Vote and donors lean the same way
Tolland, CT	55.8	−0.308	−0.34	−0.28	78,825	3,558	Vote and donors lean the same way
Windham, CT	47.8	−0.344	−0.38	−0.30	55,842	2,010	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Kent, DE	52.1	−0.135	−0.18	−0.09	85,561	1,752	Vote and donors lean the same way
New Castle, DE	68.8	−0.434	−0.45	−0.42	283,398	10,135	Vote and donors lean the same way
Sussex, DE	44.3	−0.304	−0.33	−0.27	127,912	4,390	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
District of Columbia, DC	94.5	−0.721	−0.73	−0.72	335,909	41,702	Vote and donors lean the same way
Alachua, FL	63.8	−0.423	−0.44	−0.40	140,676	6,112	Vote and donors lean the same way
Baker, FL	14.6	+0.526	+0.38	+0.67	13,948	170	Vote and donors lean the same way
Bay, FL	27.9	+0.438	+0.39	+0.48	91,711	2,078	Vote and donors lean the same way
Bradford, FL	23.4	+0.307	+0.13	+0.49	13,494	142	Vote and donors lean the same way
Brevard, FL	41.7	+0.070	+0.05	+0.09	356,432	8,999	Vote and donors lean the same way
Broward, FL	65.0	−0.270	−0.28	−0.26	952,161	25,659	Vote and donors lean the same way
Calhoun, FL	18.6	+0.478	+0.26	+0.70	6,483	69	Vote and donors lean the same way
Charlotte, FL	36.6	+0.151	+0.11	+0.19	115,516	3,209	Vote and donors lean the same way
Citrus, FL	29.3	+0.124	+0.07	+0.18	92,444	1,865	Vote and donors lean the same way
Clay, FL	31.2	+0.221	+0.17	+0.27	122,797	2,128	Vote and donors lean the same way
Collier, FL	37.6	+0.267	+0.24	+0.29	206,571	8,751	Vote and donors lean the same way
Columbia, FL	27.2	+0.343	+0.25	+0.43	32,750	513	Vote and donors lean the same way
DeSoto, FL	33.9	+0.402	+0.25	+0.56	12,572	185	Vote and donors lean the same way
Dixie, FL	16.8	+0.442	+0.24	+0.65	8,124	93	Vote and donors lean the same way
Duval, FL	51.9	+0.069	+0.05	+0.09	486,318	10,369	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Escambia, FL	42.3	+0.203	+0.17	+0.24	167,603	3,450	Vote and donors lean the same way
Flagler, FL	39.5	−0.017	−0.07	+0.04	71,204	1,769	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Franklin, FL	31.2	−0.284	−0.42	−0.14	6,795	183	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Gadsden, FL	68.4	−0.013	−0.11	+0.08	23,618	483	Vote and donors lean the same way
Gilchrist, FL	17.7	+0.239	+0.05	+0.43	9,595	119	Vote and donors lean the same way
Glades, FL	26.8	+0.373	+0.19	+0.56	5,167	101	Vote and donors lean the same way
Gulf, FL	24.5	+0.463	+0.29	+0.64	8,098	135	Vote and donors lean the same way
Hamilton, FL	34.0	+0.446	+0.20	+0.70	5,778	66	Vote and donors lean the same way
Hardee, FL	27.3	+0.714	+0.59	+0.84	8,420	164	Vote and donors lean the same way
Hendry, FL	38.4	+0.509	+0.41	+0.60	12,835	306	Vote and donors lean the same way
Hernando, FL	34.8	+0.124	+0.07	+0.18	107,931	1,858	Vote and donors lean the same way
Highlands, FL	32.7	+0.321	+0.25	+0.39	51,811	967	Vote and donors lean the same way
Hillsborough, FL	53.5	−0.074	−0.09	−0.06	703,765	18,101	Vote and donors lean the same way
Holmes, FL	10.3	+0.746	+0.50	+0.99	9,004	58	Vote and donors lean the same way
Indian River, FL	39.1	+0.246	+0.21	+0.28	96,716	3,511	Vote and donors lean the same way
Jackson, FL	30.4	+0.352	+0.24	+0.46	22,254	322	Vote and donors lean the same way
Jefferson, FL	46.5	+0.070	−0.06	+0.20	8,376	227	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lafayette, FL	14.0	+0.374	+0.14	+0.61	3,638	56	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lake, FL	39.9	+0.099	+0.06	+0.13	209,364	4,216	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lee, FL	40.3	+0.109	+0.09	+0.13	390,942	10,970	Vote and donors lean the same way
Leon, FL	64.3	−0.193	−0.21	−0.18	160,970	8,772	Vote and donors lean the same way
Levy, FL	27.0	+0.152	+0.04	+0.26	22,954	370	Vote and donors lean the same way
Liberty, FL	19.6	+0.541	+0.27	+0.81	3,540	37	Vote and donors lean the same way
Madison, FL	40.2	+0.170	−0.01	+0.35	9,323	114	Vote and donors lean the same way
Manatee, FL	41.9	−0.049	−0.08	−0.02	215,153	6,414	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Marion, FL	36.9	+0.143	+0.11	+0.18	202,684	4,176	Vote and donors lean the same way
Martin, FL	37.6	+0.185	+0.15	+0.22	98,061	3,874	Vote and donors lean the same way
Miami-Dade, FL	53.7	−0.211	−0.22	−0.20	1,150,697	32,297	Vote and donors lean the same way
Monroe, FL	46.0	−0.146	−0.19	−0.10	47,574	2,331	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Nassau, FL	26.8	+0.165	+0.11	+0.22	58,130	1,562	Vote and donors lean the same way
Okaloosa, FL	30.0	+0.471	+0.43	+0.52	114,046	2,325	Vote and donors lean the same way
Okeechobee, FL	27.7	+0.428	+0.29	+0.56	15,860	213	Vote and donors lean the same way
Orange, FL	61.7	−0.112	−0.13	−0.10	640,412	15,210	Vote and donors lean the same way
Osceola, FL	57.0	−0.081	−0.13	−0.03	170,777	1,721	Vote and donors lean the same way
Palm Beach, FL	56.4	−0.138	−0.15	−0.13	768,283	30,149	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pasco, FL	39.9	+0.041	+0.01	+0.07	298,694	4,933	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pinellas, FL	50.1	−0.165	−0.18	−0.15	553,659	17,100	Vote and donors lean the same way
Polk, FL	42.7	+0.222	+0.19	+0.25	339,635	5,874	Vote and donors lean the same way
Putnam, FL	29.2	+0.128	+0.04	+0.21	36,041	655	Vote and donors lean the same way
St. Johns, FL	36.5	+0.118	+0.09	+0.15	174,796	4,993	Vote and donors lean the same way
St. Lucie, FL	49.2	−0.028	−0.07	+0.01	170,968	3,325	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Santa Rosa, FL	26.3	+0.347	+0.29	+0.40	104,997	1,659	Vote and donors lean the same way
Sarasota, FL	44.7	−0.192	−0.21	−0.17	268,480	12,109	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Seminole, FL	51.4	−0.005	−0.03	+0.02	257,769	5,947	Vote and donors lean the same way
Sumter, FL	31.9	+0.149	+0.10	+0.19	92,102	2,913	Vote and donors lean the same way
Suwannee, FL	21.5	+0.319	+0.20	+0.44	20,895	308	Vote and donors lean the same way
Taylor, FL	22.9	+0.363	+0.20	+0.53	10,050	151	Vote and donors lean the same way
Union, FL	17.0	+0.485	+0.23	+0.74	6,186	51	Vote and donors lean the same way
Volusia, FL	42.9	+0.030	+0.01	+0.05	304,396	7,428	Vote and donors lean the same way
Wakulla, FL	29.4	−0.147	−0.27	−0.03	18,225	269	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Walton, FL	23.9	+0.292	+0.22	+0.36	43,285	993	Vote and donors lean the same way
Washington, FL	19.2	+0.529	+0.39	+0.67	12,223	173	Vote and donors lean the same way
Appling, GA	21.4	+1.015	+0.81	+1.22	8,354	60	Vote and donors lean the same way
Atkinson, GA	26.4	+0.801	+0.42	+1.18	3,125	26	Vote and donors lean the same way
Bacon, GA	13.5	+0.679	+0.40	+0.96	4,642	44	Vote and donors lean the same way
Baldwin, GA	50.7	+0.295	+0.17	+0.42	18,043	304	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Banks, GA	10.7	+0.418	+0.04	+0.80	8,727	47	Vote and donors lean the same way
Barrow, GA	28.1	+0.447	+0.31	+0.58	37,257	316	Vote and donors lean the same way
Bartow, GA	24.3	+0.503	+0.40	+0.60	49,763	515	Vote and donors lean the same way
Ben Hill, GA	36.8	+0.468	+0.21	+0.72	6,504	69	Vote and donors lean the same way
Berrien, GA	16.5	+0.901	+0.68	+1.12	7,688	66	Vote and donors lean the same way
Bibb, GA	62.0	+0.229	+0.18	+0.28	69,967	1,508	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Bleckley, GA	23.3	+0.430	+0.09	+0.77	5,641	42	Vote and donors lean the same way
Brantley, GA	9.1	+0.250	−0.10	+0.60	7,693	39	Vote and donors lean the same way
Brooks, GA	39.6	+0.718	+0.48	+0.96	7,052	75	Vote and donors lean the same way
Bryan, GA	32.1	+0.295	+0.15	+0.44	20,978	268	Vote and donors lean the same way
Bulloch, GA	38.0	+0.347	+0.25	+0.44	29,635	482	Vote and donors lean the same way
Burke, GA	49.1	+0.818	+0.58	+1.05	10,608	69	Vote and donors lean the same way
Butts, GA	28.0	+0.868	+0.68	+1.06	11,680	104	Vote and donors lean the same way
Camden, GA	34.3	+0.303	+0.18	+0.43	23,216	330	Vote and donors lean the same way
Candler, GA	28.8	+0.353	+0.12	+0.59	4,402	91	Vote and donors lean the same way
Carroll, GA	30.2	+0.397	+0.31	+0.48	53,712	696	Vote and donors lean the same way
Catoosa, GA	21.6	+0.313	+0.17	+0.46	32,099	264	Vote and donors lean the same way
Charlton, GA	24.4	+0.423	+0.14	+0.71	4,524	55	Vote and donors lean the same way
Chatham, GA	59.5	−0.017	−0.05	+0.02	131,479	3,489	Vote and donors lean the same way
Chattooga, GA	18.7	+0.322	+0.03	+0.61	9,918	59	Vote and donors lean the same way
Cherokee, GA	30.0	+0.207	+0.16	+0.26	142,364	2,404	Vote and donors lean the same way
Clarke, GA	71.4	−0.431	−0.47	−0.39	50,505	2,075	Vote and donors lean the same way
Clayton, GA	85.8	−0.408	−0.47	−0.35	111,277	1,006	Vote and donors lean the same way
Clinch, GA	26.1	+0.783	+0.53	+1.04	2,849	44	Vote and donors lean the same way
Cobb, GA	57.3	−0.002	−0.03	+0.02	387,283	9,997	Vote and donors lean the same way
Coffee, GA	29.9	+0.705	+0.57	+0.84	15,089	182	Vote and donors lean the same way
Colquitt, GA	26.2	+0.942	+0.85	+1.04	15,967	240	Vote and donors lean the same way
Columbia, GA	36.9	+0.332	+0.26	+0.40	79,245	1,093	Vote and donors lean the same way
Cook, GA	29.6	+0.836	+0.61	+1.06	6,959	59	Vote and donors lean the same way
Coweta, GA	32.0	+0.272	+0.19	+0.35	75,711	1,010	Vote and donors lean the same way
Crawford, GA	26.7	+0.840	+0.56	+1.12	6,043	42	Vote and donors lean the same way
Crisp, GA	37.4	+0.759	+0.60	+0.92	7,967	118	Vote and donors lean the same way
Dade, GA	17.2	+0.486	+0.23	+0.74	7,327	86	Vote and donors lean the same way
Dawson, GA	15.7	+0.544	+0.36	+0.72	15,884	162	Vote and donors lean the same way
Decatur, GA	41.4	+0.636	+0.47	+0.80	11,537	124	Vote and donors lean the same way
DeKalb, GA	84.1	−0.672	−0.69	−0.66	366,539	12,992	Vote and donors lean the same way
Dodge, GA	27.1	+0.681	+0.48	+0.88	8,015	79	Vote and donors lean the same way
Dooly, GA	47.0	+0.611	+0.35	+0.87	4,070	44	Vote and donors lean the same way
Dougherty, GA	70.2	+0.364	+0.28	+0.45	35,009	504	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Douglas, GA	62.7	−0.042	−0.12	+0.04	68,268	835	Vote and donors lean the same way
Early, GA	47.5	+0.634	+0.32	+0.95	5,160	33	Vote and donors lean the same way
Effingham, GA	24.8	+0.411	+0.25	+0.57	31,079	220	Vote and donors lean the same way
Elbert, GA	31.6	+0.369	+0.16	+0.58	9,105	108	Vote and donors lean the same way
Emanuel, GA	30.6	+0.529	+0.31	+0.75	9,439	85	Vote and donors lean the same way
Evans, GA	31.4	+0.712	+0.45	+0.98	4,212	50	Vote and donors lean the same way
Fannin, GA	17.4	+0.146	0.00	+0.29	14,739	288	Vote and donors lean the same way
Fayette, GA	46.6	+0.001	−0.06	+0.06	71,018	1,629	Vote and donors lean the same way
Floyd, GA	29.2	+0.419	+0.33	+0.50	40,823	703	Vote and donors lean the same way
Forsyth, GA	33.1	+0.281	+0.23	+0.33	127,331	2,008	Vote and donors lean the same way
Franklin, GA	14.9	+0.628	+0.39	+0.86	10,662	84	Vote and donors lean the same way
Fulton, GA	73.5	−0.264	−0.28	−0.25	517,459	23,387	Vote and donors lean the same way
Gilmer, GA	17.9	+0.259	+0.11	+0.40	16,361	278	Vote and donors lean the same way
Glynn, GA	38.3	+0.220	+0.15	+0.29	41,499	1,112	Vote and donors lean the same way
Gordon, GA	18.4	+0.631	+0.49	+0.77	23,789	264	Vote and donors lean the same way
Grady, GA	34.0	+0.452	+0.23	+0.68	10,653	90	Vote and donors lean the same way
Greene, GA	36.6	+0.638	+0.49	+0.79	11,153	195	Vote and donors lean the same way
Gwinnett, GA	59.3	−0.099	−0.13	−0.07	408,394	6,263	Vote and donors lean the same way
Habersham, GA	17.6	+0.360	+0.23	+0.49	20,199	296	Vote and donors lean the same way
Hall, GA	28.1	+0.481	+0.42	+0.54	89,216	1,599	Vote and donors lean the same way
Hancock, GA	72.1	−0.129	−0.53	+0.27	4,130	32	Vote and donors lean the same way
Haralson, GA	12.7	+0.851	+0.65	+1.05	14,121	126	Vote and donors lean the same way
Harris, GA	27.6	+0.407	+0.27	+0.55	19,776	272	Vote and donors lean the same way
Hart, GA	25.0	+0.642	+0.48	+0.80	12,622	167	Vote and donors lean the same way
Heard, GA	15.4	+0.764	+0.33	+1.20	5,343	27	Vote and donors lean the same way
Henry, GA	60.3	−0.158	−0.22	−0.10	121,702	1,450	Vote and donors lean the same way
Houston, GA	43.7	+0.442	+0.37	+0.51	73,779	1,040	Vote and donors lean the same way
Irwin, GA	24.3	+0.964	+0.75	+1.18	4,142	46	Vote and donors lean the same way
Jackson, GA	20.6	+0.386	+0.28	+0.50	37,144	460	Vote and donors lean the same way
Jasper, GA	23.2	+0.697	+0.44	+0.95	7,583	67	Vote and donors lean the same way
Jeff Davis, GA	18.0	+0.571	+0.17	+0.97	5,723	29	Vote and donors lean the same way
Jefferson, GA	53.4	+0.538	+0.23	+0.84	7,595	47	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Jenkins, GA	36.9	+0.967	+0.65	+1.28	3,427	25	Vote and donors lean the same way
Jones, GA	32.9	+0.316	+0.12	+0.51	14,822	136	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lamar, GA	29.3	+0.266	+0.02	+0.51	8,951	96	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lanier, GA	28.9	+0.307	0.00	+0.61	3,528	37	Vote and donors lean the same way
Laurens, GA	35.8	+0.670	+0.55	+0.79	22,567	274	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lee, GA	27.5	+0.552	+0.37	+0.74	16,565	130	Vote and donors lean the same way
Liberty, GA	62.2	−0.023	−0.16	+0.12	21,063	230	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lincoln, GA	31.1	+0.570	+0.17	+0.97	4,605	34	Vote and donors lean the same way
Long, GA	36.6	−0.332	−0.72	+0.05	5,562	29	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Lowndes, GA	43.9	+0.417	+0.32	+0.51	45,808	565	Vote and donors lean the same way
Lumpkin, GA	20.4	−0.050	−0.19	+0.09	15,289	266	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
McDuffie, GA	40.3	+0.679	+0.47	+0.88	10,337	100	Vote and donors lean the same way
McIntosh, GA	39.4	+0.122	−0.12	+0.37	6,628	90	Vote and donors lean the same way
Macon, GA	61.6	+0.760	+0.45	+1.07	4,641	40	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Madison, GA	23.1	+0.092	−0.13	+0.31	14,737	119	Vote and donors lean the same way
Meriwether, GA	39.7	+0.555	+0.27	+0.84	10,811	73	Vote and donors lean the same way
Mitchell, GA	44.7	+0.720	+0.55	+0.89	8,928	99	Vote and donors lean the same way
Monroe, GA	28.4	+0.417	+0.26	+0.58	15,442	176	Vote and donors lean the same way
Montgomery, GA	24.9	+0.893	+0.66	+1.13	3,940	44	Vote and donors lean the same way
Morgan, GA	28.9	+0.372	+0.21	+0.53	11,584	195	Vote and donors lean the same way
Murray, GA	15.1	+0.465	+0.21	+0.72	15,245	82	Vote and donors lean the same way
Muscogee, GA	62.2	+0.156	+0.10	+0.21	79,553	1,535	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Newton, GA	55.5	+0.081	−0.02	+0.18	53,658	526	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Oconee, GA	33.0	+0.016	−0.07	+0.10	24,757	686	Vote and donors lean the same way
Oglethorpe, GA	30.4	−0.147	−0.41	+0.11	8,031	77	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Paulding, GA	35.3	+0.186	+0.10	+0.27	84,212	798	Vote and donors lean the same way
Peach, GA	47.7	+0.333	+0.16	+0.50	12,428	186	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pickens, GA	16.7	+0.305	+0.16	+0.45	16,934	285	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pierce, GA	12.2	+0.836	+0.66	+1.02	8,998	91	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pike, GA	14.2	+0.601	+0.34	+0.86	10,632	85	Vote and donors lean the same way
Polk, GA	21.2	+0.611	+0.42	+0.80	17,244	136	Vote and donors lean the same way
Pulaski, GA	30.4	+0.739	+0.49	+0.99	4,045	53	Vote and donors lean the same way
Putnam, GA	29.4	+0.608	+0.46	+0.75	11,739	223	Vote and donors lean the same way
Rabun, GA	21.0	+0.041	−0.12	+0.20	9,458	200	Vote and donors lean the same way
Richmond, GA	68.8	+0.211	+0.15	+0.27	85,899	1,340	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Rockdale, GA	70.6	−0.295	−0.40	−0.19	44,251	477	Vote and donors lean the same way
Screven, GA	40.5	+0.750	+0.51	+0.99	6,576	64	Vote and donors lean the same way
Seminole, GA	32.5	+0.540	+0.19	+0.89	3,869	34	Vote and donors lean the same way
Spalding, GA	39.5	+0.345	+0.21	+0.48	29,932	331	Vote and donors lean the same way
Stephens, GA	20.3	+0.716	+0.53	+0.90	11,753	115	Vote and donors lean the same way
Sumter, GA	52.4	+0.295	+0.14	+0.45	12,047	183	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Talbot, GA	60.3	+0.082	−0.33	+0.49	3,506	31	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Tattnall, GA	25.4	+0.881	+0.71	+1.05	8,116	82	Vote and donors lean the same way
Taylor, GA	36.4	+0.567	+0.26	+0.87	3,808	29	Vote and donors lean the same way
Telfair, GA	34.5	+0.674	+0.32	+1.02	4,313	29	Vote and donors lean the same way
Terrell, GA	54.2	+0.656	+0.37	+0.94	4,380	42	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Thomas, GA	40.2	+0.598	+0.50	+0.70	21,677	402	Vote and donors lean the same way
Tift, GA	33.0	+0.834	+0.74	+0.92	16,102	319	Vote and donors lean the same way
Toombs, GA	27.2	+0.758	+0.63	+0.88	10,811	186	Vote and donors lean the same way
Towns, GA	19.5	+0.241	+0.07	+0.42	7,934	183	Vote and donors lean the same way
Troup, GA	39.0	+0.537	+0.42	+0.66	29,719	324	Vote and donors lean the same way
Turner, GA	37.5	+0.496	+0.17	+0.82	3,758	39	Vote and donors lean the same way
Twiggs, GA	46.3	+0.551	+0.21	+0.90	4,414	26	Vote and donors lean the same way
Union, GA	18.1	+0.120	−0.02	+0.26	15,450	271	Vote and donors lean the same way
Upson, GA	32.8	+0.586	+0.37	+0.80	12,809	102	Vote and donors lean the same way
Walker, GA	19.9	+0.435	+0.29	+0.58	28,943	265	Vote and donors lean the same way
Walton, GA	25.1	+0.524	+0.41	+0.63	50,522	481	Vote and donors lean the same way
Ware, GA	29.6	+0.631	+0.51	+0.75	14,072	231	Vote and donors lean the same way
Washington, GA	50.4	+0.677	+0.49	+0.86	9,411	117	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Wayne, GA	21.2	+0.674	+0.50	+0.85	12,675	127	Vote and donors lean the same way
White, GA	16.5	+0.145	−0.01	+0.30	14,633	232	Vote and donors lean the same way
Whitfield, GA	29.4	+0.494	+0.40	+0.59	36,324	474	Vote and donors lean the same way
Wilcox, GA	26.4	+0.962	+0.64	+1.28	3,263	25	Vote and donors lean the same way
Wilkes, GA	43.3	+0.409	+0.18	+0.64	4,983	94	Vote and donors lean the same way
Wilkinson, GA	43.8	+0.297	−0.06	+0.65	4,739	37	Vote and donors lean the same way
Worth, GA	26.0	+0.880	+0.70	+1.06	9,225	99	Vote and donors lean the same way
Ada, ID	48.0	−0.214	−0.24	−0.19	251,238	7,720	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Adams, ID	23.3	+0.221	−0.10	+0.55	2,532	56	Vote and donors lean the same way
Bannock, ID	38.6	−0.238	−0.32	−0.16	38,013	720	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Bear Lake, ID	10.7	+0.746	+0.39	+1.10	3,264	36	Vote and donors lean the same way
Benewah, ID	20.1	+0.209	−0.06	+0.47	4,855	80	Vote and donors lean the same way
Bingham, ID	21.2	+0.483	+0.32	+0.65	19,419	187	Vote and donors lean the same way
Blaine, ID	68.9	−0.475	−0.53	−0.42	12,950	1,017	Vote and donors lean the same way
Boise, ID	25.7	+0.125	−0.10	+0.35	4,689	110	Vote and donors lean the same way
Bonner, ID	31.1	−0.076	−0.16	+0.01	26,679	758	Republican vote, left-leaning donors
Bonneville, ID	27.4	+0.152	+0.08	+0.22	52,059	955	Vote and donors lean the same way
Boundary, ID	19.8	+0.304	+0.10	+0.51	6,157	134	Vote and donors lean the same way

Showing the first 500 of 2839 rows.

Dots run from the upper left to the lower right, and the divergent counties are the dots in the upper right and lower left quadrants. Dot area is the county's two-party votes. The line with whiskers is the mean donor lean of counties grouped into bins of Democratic share, counting each county once, with 95% intervals; the dashed line is a least-squares line through all counties, counting each county once, with a 95% band from standard errors clustered on state. The quadrant rules sit at an even split of the vote and at a CFscore of zero.Note: Votes are full counts. The data table gives each county's 95% interval for its donor lean, which treats its reliable donors as independent draws; the tooltip gives n, the number of reliable donors, and a county with a small pool has a noisy donor lean. The intervals on the binned means are 95% intervals across the counties in each bin.Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; donors are not weighted, and county values, binned means and the fitted line count each county once

A straight line fitted through the county dots by least squares, which minimizes the squared vertical distances, crosses zero at a Democratic share of 45.9% when each county counts once and 44.5% when counties are weighted by their votes. A county at an even split of the vote is expected to have donors a little left of zero, and 76 of the 472 Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors have a Democratic share at or above the first crossing. The median Democratic-voting county with right-leaning donors gave 57.6% of its two-party vote to the Democratic candidate.

Democratic-voting exceptions are counties with large Black populations

74 of the 98 Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors are at least 30% Black. Among Democratic-voting counties at that Black share, 58.7% (74 of 126) have right-leaning donors, against 6.5% of the 372 others (Figure 3). Pools are smaller in these counties, and a small pool gives a noisy mean. The median Democratic-voting county at least 30% Black has 170 reliable donors, against 3,193 in the others. The gap between the two groups of counties remains when small pools are dropped (Figure 4).The Black share analyses use the 498 Democratic-voting counties that have a Black share, a college share and a median household income in the 2020 demographic file. The counties of Connecticut lack all three there and drop out of these analyses only. Regression standard errors are clustered on the 46 states in this set.

Figure 3

Right-leaning donors are more common in Democratic-voting counties that are at least 30% Black: 58.7% of them, against 6.5% of the rest

Share of counties whose donor pool leans opposite to the vote, by non-Hispanic Black share of residents, for Democratic-voting and Republican-voting counties, 2020 vote

Democratic-voting counties
Republican-voting counties

Show data

Data for Right-leaning donors are more common in Democratic-voting counties that are at least 30% Black: 58.7% of them, against 6.5% of the rest
Black share of residents	Vote	Divergent counties (% of counties voting that way)	Divergent counties	Counties
Under 5% Black	Democratic-voting counties	6.9	14	202
5 to 15% Black	Democratic-voting counties	2.8	3	108
15 to 30% Black	Democratic-voting counties	11.3	7	62
30 to 50% Black	Democratic-voting counties	43.9	25	57
50% or more Black	Democratic-voting counties	71.0	49	69
Under 5% Black	Republican-voting counties	23.4	372	1,593
5 to 15% Black	Republican-voting counties	20.6	81	393
15 to 30% Black	Republican-voting counties	5.6	12	214
30 to 50% Black	Republican-voting counties	3.8	5	131

Democratic-voting counties at least 30% Black are divergent more often than Democratic-voting counties with a lower Black share, and the Republican-voting counties are divergent less often as the Black share rises. Each bar is the percentage of counties on that side of the vote, in that band of Black share, whose reliable donors lean the other way. A band with fewer than 10 counties on a side is left out, and the tooltip gives the number of counties.Note: The counties of Connecticut, which have no Black share in the demographic file, are left out.Note: Each bar is the share of the counties in the analysis in that band, so it carries no sampling interval; the tooltip gives the number of counties.Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights

Figure 4

At every pool floor, a larger share of Democratic-voting counties at least 30% Black than of the rest have right-leaning donors

Share of Democratic-voting counties whose donor pool leans right, by whether the county is at least 30% Black, among counties with at least the stated number of reliable donors, 2020 vote

Counties at least 30% Black
Other Democratic-voting counties

Show data

Data for At every pool floor, a larger share of Democratic-voting counties at least 30% Black than of the rest have right-leaning donors
Counties with at least	Group	Counties with right-leaning donors (%)	Counties with right-leaning donors	Counties
25 or more donors	Counties at least 30% Black	58.7	74	126
25 or more donors	Other Democratic-voting counties	6.5	24	372
100 or more donors	Counties at least 30% Black	43.9	36	82
100 or more donors	Other Democratic-voting counties	4.8	17	357
500 or more donors	Counties at least 30% Black	30.2	13	43
500 or more donors	Other Democratic-voting counties	4.1	13	320

The two bars differ at every floor, so the gap persists when the smaller pools are dropped. Each bar is the percentage of Democratic-voting counties with at least that many reliable donors, in that group, whose donors lean right: 58.7% against 6.5% with every pool, 43.9% against 4.8% at 100 or more donors, and 30.2% against 4.1% at 500 or more. The groups hold 82 and 357 counties at 100 donors and 43 and 320 at 500.Note: The counties of Connecticut, which have no Black share in the demographic file, are left out.Note: Each bar is the share of the counties with at least that many reliable donors, so it carries no sampling interval; the tooltip gives the number of counties.Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights

Among the 498 Democratic-voting counties with a Black share, the correlation between donor lean and Black share is +0.62 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.69) when each county counts once and +0.21 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.37) when counties are weighted by their votes (Figure 5). Both intervals lie above zero, and the weighted correlation is smaller. 9 of the 10 counties at least 30% Black with the most voters, among them Philadelphia, Prince George's County in Maryland and Fulton County in Georgia, have donors left of zero, and the exception is Jefferson County in Alabama. The Democratic-voting counties at least 30% Black with right-leaning donors have a median of 10,804 two-party votes, against 73,872 for those with left-leaning donors.

Figure 5

Among Democratic-voting counties, donor lean rises with Black share, and less steeply when counties are weighted by votes

Mean CFscore of reliable donors against non-Hispanic Black share of residents, Democratic-voting counties (n = 498), 2020 vote and demographics

Donors lean right
Donors lean left
Dot area: Two-party votes, 2020420,0001,500,0004,200,000

Show data

Data for Among Democratic-voting counties, donor lean rises with Black share, and less steeply when counties are weighted by votes
County	Black share (%)	Donor lean (mean CFscore)	Donor lean, 95% interval, low	Donor lean, 95% interval, high	Two-party votes	Reliable donors	Group
Bullock, AL	69.0	+0.369	+0.04	+0.69	4,592	40	Donors lean right
Dallas, AL	70.6	+0.209	+0.03	+0.39	17,754	138	Donors lean right
Greene, AL	80.1	+0.066	−0.29	+0.42	4,759	29	Donors lean right
Hale, AL	56.9	+0.792	+0.49	+1.09	7,877	35	Donors lean right
Jefferson, AL	42.5	+0.060	+0.03	+0.09	320,531	6,805	Donors lean right
Lowndes, AL	74.2	+0.581	+0.22	+0.94	6,808	32	Donors lean right
Macon, AL	79.7	−0.281	−0.49	−0.07	8,649	90	Donors lean left
Marengo, AL	51.3	+0.433	+0.17	+0.70	10,831	64	Donors lean right
Montgomery, AL	58.3	+0.312	+0.27	+0.35	97,840	2,364	Donors lean right
Russell, AL	44.7	−0.042	−0.23	+0.14	21,092	143	Donors lean left
Sumter, AL	69.7	+0.470	+0.19	+0.75	6,246	56	Donors lean right
Wilcox, AL	70.2	+0.643	+0.34	+0.95	5,881	36	Donors lean right
Apache, AZ	0.9	+0.003	−0.15	+0.16	34,735	245	Donors lean right
Coconino, AZ	1.3	−0.528	−0.56	−0.49	71,750	2,490	Donors lean left
Maricopa, AZ	5.4	−0.112	−0.12	−0.10	2,036,439	60,280	Donors lean left
Pima, AZ	3.3	−0.427	−0.44	−0.41	512,739	23,180	Donors lean left
Santa Cruz, AZ	0.2	−0.435	−0.52	−0.35	19,332	550	Donors lean left
Chicot, AR	53.5	+0.532	+0.31	+0.75	4,012	55	Donors lean right
Crittenden, AR	49.6	+0.298	+0.15	+0.44	15,847	204	Donors lean right
Desha, AR	48.2	+0.270	+0.08	+0.46	3,937	61	Donors lean right
Jefferson, AR	56.0	+0.163	+0.07	+0.25	24,502	388	Donors lean right
Lee, AR	55.0	+0.409	+0.20	+0.62	2,709	41	Donors lean right
Phillips, AR	61.8	−0.002	−0.17	+0.16	6,040	101	Donors lean left
Pulaski, AR	36.8	−0.163	−0.19	−0.14	165,634	6,188	Donors lean left
St. Francis, AR	53.6	+0.051	−0.12	+0.23	6,846	101	Donors lean right
Alameda, CA	9.7	−0.840	−0.85	−0.83	753,968	39,788	Donors lean left
Alpine, CA	0.4	−0.565	−0.86	−0.27	720	37	Donors lean left
Butte, CA	1.7	−0.425	−0.46	−0.39	99,156	3,195	Donors lean left
Contra Costa, CA	8.1	−0.706	−0.71	−0.70	569,263	32,404	Donors lean left
Fresno, CA	4.3	−0.054	−0.08	−0.03	357,489	6,335	Donors lean left
Humboldt, CA	1.1	−0.733	−0.76	−0.70	66,538	2,877	Donors lean left
Imperial, CA	2.2	+0.191	+0.10	+0.28	55,525	619	Donors lean right
Inyo, CA	0.5	−0.354	−0.46	−0.24	9,254	367	Donors lean left
Lake, CA	2.2	−0.516	−0.58	−0.45	28,064	886	Donors lean left
Los Angeles, CA	7.6	−0.592	−0.60	−0.59	4,174,415	163,108	Donors lean left
Marin, CA	2.1	−0.808	−0.82	−0.80	152,900	17,069	Donors lean left
Mendocino, CA	0.5	−0.787	−0.82	−0.76	42,049	2,280	Donors lean left
Merced, CA	2.7	+0.056	0.00	+0.12	88,388	1,336	Donors lean right
Mono, CA	0.1	−0.672	−0.78	−0.57	6,526	246	Donors lean left
Monterey, CA	2.2	−0.507	−0.53	−0.48	160,252	6,087	Donors lean left
Napa, CA	1.8	−0.604	−0.63	−0.58	70,493	3,603	Donors lean left
Nevada, CA	0.3	−0.640	−0.67	−0.61	63,138	3,193	Donors lean left
Orange, CA	1.5	−0.158	−0.17	−0.15	1,490,507	45,983	Donors lean left
Riverside, CA	6.1	−0.289	−0.30	−0.27	976,647	21,059	Donors lean left
Sacramento, CA	9.1	−0.518	−0.53	−0.51	700,213	21,776	Donors lean left
San Benito, CA	0.8	−0.327	−0.42	−0.24	28,218	570	Donors lean left
San Bernardino, CA	7.6	−0.093	−0.11	−0.07	822,116	12,800	Donors lean left
San Diego, CA	4.5	−0.356	−0.36	−0.35	1,564,744	54,884	Donors lean left
San Francisco, CA	4.8	−0.866	−0.87	−0.86	434,573	45,868	Donors lean left
San Joaquin, CA	6.7	−0.110	−0.14	−0.08	282,235	4,837	Donors lean left
San Luis Obispo, CA	1.3	−0.497	−0.52	−0.47	155,746	7,100	Donors lean left
San Mateo, CA	2.1	−0.680	−0.69	−0.67	366,973	24,189	Donors lean left
Santa Barbara, CA	1.6	−0.523	−0.54	−0.50	195,699	9,410	Donors lean left
Santa Clara, CA	2.3	−0.659	−0.67	−0.65	832,579	39,175	Donors lean left
Santa Cruz, CA	0.8	−0.829	−0.84	−0.82	141,183	9,842	Donors lean left
Solano, CA	12.8	−0.543	−0.57	−0.52	200,945	5,487	Donors lean left
Sonoma, CA	1.5	−0.802	−0.81	−0.79	261,763	16,125	Donors lean left
Stanislaus, CA	2.7	−0.094	−0.13	−0.06	209,986	3,633	Donors lean left
Ventura, CA	1.7	−0.369	−0.39	−0.35	413,595	13,838	Donors lean left
Yolo, CA	2.4	−0.707	−0.73	−0.69	94,890	5,165	Donors lean left
Adams, CO	3.3	−0.280	−0.31	−0.25	229,859	4,579	Donors lean left
Arapahoe, CO	10.6	−0.143	−0.16	−0.12	340,930	12,669	Donors lean left
Boulder, CO	0.8	−0.722	−0.73	−0.71	201,590	16,281	Donors lean left
Broomfield, CO	1.2	−0.389	−0.44	−0.33	45,372	1,328	Donors lean left
Chaffee, CO	1.6	−0.429	−0.51	−0.35	13,382	588	Donors lean left
Clear Creek, CO	0.4	−0.287	−0.41	−0.16	6,358	280	Donors lean left
Costilla, CO	1.1	−0.388	−0.65	−0.13	2,052	54	Donors lean left
Denver, CO	8.7	−0.617	−0.63	−0.61	384,911	23,946	Donors lean left
Eagle, CO	0.8	−0.381	−0.43	−0.33	28,480	1,278	Donors lean left
Garfield, CO	0.6	−0.297	−0.35	−0.24	30,144	1,288	Donors lean left
Gilpin, CO	1.6	−0.415	−0.57	−0.26	4,056	162	Donors lean left
Gunnison, CO	0.3	−0.516	−0.60	−0.43	10,867	450	Donors lean left
Jefferson, CO	1.1	−0.256	−0.27	−0.24	366,813	15,446	Donors lean left
Lake, CO	0.1	−0.395	−0.60	−0.19	3,800	96	Donors lean left
La Plata, CO	0.4	−0.451	−0.49	−0.41	34,781	1,929	Donors lean left
Larimer, CO	1.0	−0.393	−0.41	−0.37	217,609	8,555	Donors lean left
Ouray, CO	0.9	−0.439	−0.56	−0.32	3,942	279	Donors lean left
Pitkin, CO	0.4	−0.479	−0.53	−0.43	11,769	1,134	Donors lean left
Pueblo, CO	1.7	−0.090	−0.13	−0.04	86,024	2,174	Donors lean left
Routt, CO	0.6	−0.390	−0.46	−0.32	16,507	824	Donors lean left
Saguache, CO	0.5	−0.539	−0.68	−0.39	3,297	161	Donors lean left
San Miguel, CO	0.5	−0.701	−0.77	−0.63	5,060	380	Donors lean left
Summit, CO	0.3	−0.455	−0.52	−0.39	17,953	818	Donors lean left
Kent, DE	25.7	−0.135	−0.18	−0.09	85,561	1,752	Donors lean left
New Castle, DE	24.8	−0.434	−0.45	−0.42	283,398	10,135	Donors lean left
District of Columbia, DC	43.1	−0.721	−0.73	−0.72	335,909	41,702	Donors lean left
Alachua, FL	19.4	−0.423	−0.44	−0.40	140,676	6,112	Donors lean left
Broward, FL	27.5	−0.270	−0.28	−0.26	952,161	25,659	Donors lean left
Duval, FL	28.7	+0.069	+0.05	+0.09	486,318	10,369	Donors lean right
Gadsden, FL	53.8	−0.013	−0.11	+0.08	23,618	483	Donors lean left
Hillsborough, FL	15.4	−0.074	−0.09	−0.06	703,765	18,101	Donors lean left
Leon, FL	30.5	−0.193	−0.21	−0.18	160,970	8,772	Donors lean left
Miami-Dade, FL	14.8	−0.211	−0.22	−0.20	1,150,697	32,297	Donors lean left
Orange, FL	19.4	−0.112	−0.13	−0.10	640,412	15,210	Donors lean left
Osceola, FL	9.4	−0.081	−0.13	−0.03	170,777	1,721	Donors lean left
Palm Beach, FL	18.1	−0.138	−0.15	−0.13	768,283	30,149	Donors lean left
Pinellas, FL	9.7	−0.165	−0.18	−0.15	553,659	17,100	Donors lean left
Seminole, FL	11.1	−0.005	−0.03	+0.02	257,769	5,947	Donors lean left
Baldwin, GA	41.6	+0.295	+0.17	+0.42	18,043	304	Donors lean right
Bibb, GA	54.4	+0.229	+0.18	+0.28	69,967	1,508	Donors lean right
Chatham, GA	39.0	−0.017	−0.05	+0.02	131,479	3,489	Donors lean left
Clarke, GA	26.8	−0.431	−0.47	−0.39	50,505	2,075	Donors lean left
Clayton, GA	68.7	−0.408	−0.47	−0.35	111,277	1,006	Donors lean left
Cobb, GA	26.6	−0.002	−0.03	+0.02	387,283	9,997	Donors lean left
DeKalb, GA	51.6	−0.672	−0.69	−0.66	366,539	12,992	Donors lean left
Dougherty, GA	69.8	+0.364	+0.28	+0.45	35,009	504	Donors lean right
Douglas, GA	48.0	−0.042	−0.12	+0.04	68,268	835	Donors lean left
Fulton, GA	42.6	−0.264	−0.28	−0.25	517,459	23,387	Donors lean left
Gwinnett, GA	27.5	−0.099	−0.13	−0.07	408,394	6,263	Donors lean left
Hancock, GA	70.9	−0.129	−0.53	+0.27	4,130	32	Donors lean left
Henry, GA	48.1	−0.158	−0.22	−0.10	121,702	1,450	Donors lean left
Jefferson, GA	52.8	+0.538	+0.23	+0.84	7,595	47	Donors lean right
Liberty, GA	40.4	−0.023	−0.16	+0.12	21,063	230	Donors lean left
Macon, GA	60.2	+0.760	+0.45	+1.07	4,641	40	Donors lean right
Muscogee, GA	45.9	+0.156	+0.10	+0.21	79,553	1,535	Donors lean right
Newton, GA	46.3	+0.081	−0.02	+0.18	53,658	526	Donors lean right
Richmond, GA	55.7	+0.211	+0.15	+0.27	85,899	1,340	Donors lean right
Rockdale, GA	56.2	−0.295	−0.40	−0.19	44,251	477	Donors lean left
Sumter, GA	51.3	+0.295	+0.14	+0.45	12,047	183	Donors lean right
Talbot, GA	55.2	+0.082	−0.33	+0.49	3,506	31	Donors lean right
Terrell, GA	58.9	+0.656	+0.37	+0.94	4,380	42	Donors lean right
Washington, GA	53.0	+0.677	+0.49	+0.86	9,411	117	Donors lean right
Blaine, ID	0.5	−0.475	−0.53	−0.42	12,950	1,017	Donors lean left
Latah, ID	1.1	−0.521	−0.59	−0.46	19,708	763	Donors lean left
Teton, ID	0.0	−0.606	−0.73	−0.48	6,176	204	Donors lean left
Champaign, IL	13.4	−0.559	−0.59	−0.53	92,352	2,846	Donors lean left
Cook, IL	22.4	−0.645	−0.65	−0.64	2,284,242	79,175	Donors lean left
DeKalb, IL	7.0	−0.418	−0.48	−0.36	46,548	977	Donors lean left
DuPage, IL	4.8	−0.268	−0.28	−0.25	474,833	13,593	Donors lean left
Jackson, IL	14.4	−0.471	−0.54	−0.40	22,071	711	Donors lean left
Kane, IL	5.0	−0.299	−0.33	−0.27	226,941	4,842	Donors lean left
Kendall, IL	7.5	−0.211	−0.29	−0.13	62,660	778	Donors lean left
Lake, IL	6.4	−0.351	−0.37	−0.33	327,626	11,440	Donors lean left
McLean, IL	8.3	−0.147	−0.20	−0.10	84,435	1,893	Donors lean left
Peoria, IL	17.5	+0.153	+0.11	+0.20	81,830	1,863	Donors lean right
Rock Island, IL	10.4	−0.176	−0.24	−0.12	65,294	1,254	Donors lean left
St. Clair, IL	28.7	−0.237	−0.28	−0.19	125,475	1,899	Donors lean left
Will, IL	11.3	−0.254	−0.28	−0.22	339,031	4,794	Donors lean left
Winnebago, IL	12.2	−0.093	−0.14	−0.05	124,917	2,120	Donors lean left
Lake, IN	23.1	−0.180	−0.22	−0.14	216,630	3,215	Donors lean left
Marion, IN	27.5	−0.087	−0.10	−0.07	381,947	12,551	Donors lean left
Monroe, IN	3.4	−0.632	−0.66	−0.60	61,932	2,880	Donors lean left
St. Joseph, IN	12.4	−0.263	−0.30	−0.23	113,060	2,944	Donors lean left
Tippecanoe, IN	5.8	−0.210	−0.26	−0.16	69,598	1,822	Donors lean left
Black Hawk, IA	9.3	−0.093	−0.14	−0.05	65,287	2,260	Donors lean left
Johnson, IA	7.6	−0.642	−0.66	−0.62	82,102	4,678	Donors lean left
Linn, IA	5.7	−0.149	−0.18	−0.12	124,238	4,110	Donors lean left
Polk, IA	7.0	−0.254	−0.27	−0.24	253,050	10,474	Donors lean left
Scott, IA	7.2	+0.055	+0.02	+0.09	90,609	2,850	Donors lean right
Story, IA	2.4	−0.307	−0.35	−0.27	49,515	2,394	Donors lean left
Douglas, KS	4.1	−0.652	−0.68	−0.62	56,173	2,444	Donors lean left
Johnson, KS	4.7	−0.217	−0.24	−0.20	339,890	10,750	Donors lean left
Riley, KS	6.3	−0.220	−0.29	−0.15	23,114	776	Donors lean left
Shawnee, KS	7.3	−0.087	−0.13	−0.05	83,458	2,469	Donors lean left
Wyandotte, KS	19.5	−0.372	−0.44	−0.30	54,078	762	Donors lean left
Fayette, KY	14.4	−0.183	−0.20	−0.16	149,460	6,292	Donors lean left
Jefferson, KY	21.1	−0.209	−0.22	−0.19	379,004	12,408	Donors lean left
Caddo Parish, LA	48.9	+0.435	+0.39	+0.48	103,131	2,088	Donors lean right
East Baton Rouge Parish, LA	44.6	+0.237	+0.21	+0.27	203,997	4,356	Donors lean right
East Carroll Parish, LA	66.4	+0.918	+0.73	+1.11	2,980	39	Donors lean right
Iberville Parish, LA	45.8	+0.460	+0.32	+0.60	16,407	170	Donors lean right
Madison Parish, LA	62.8	+0.590	+0.27	+0.91	4,584	30	Donors lean right
Orleans Parish, LA	56.2	−0.412	−0.44	−0.39	174,518	4,054	Donors lean left
St. James Parish, LA	48.4	+0.386	+0.15	+0.62	12,464	65	Donors lean right
St. John the Baptist Parish, LA	56.8	+0.029	−0.15	+0.21	21,120	141	Donors lean right
Cumberland, ME	3.2	−0.636	−0.65	−0.62	188,343	9,080	Donors lean left
Hancock, ME	0.9	−0.672	−0.71	−0.63	34,351	1,687	Donors lean left
Kennebec, ME	0.8	−0.458	−0.50	−0.42	69,623	1,846	Donors lean left
Knox, ME	0.4	−0.683	−0.72	−0.64	25,092	1,324	Donors lean left
Lincoln, ME	0.6	−0.569	−0.62	−0.52	22,940	1,061	Donors lean left
Sagadahoc, ME	0.6	−0.610	−0.66	−0.56	23,283	942	Donors lean left
Waldo, ME	0.4	−0.725	−0.78	−0.68	23,541	827	Donors lean left
York, ME	1.0	−0.520	−0.55	−0.49	126,006	3,277	Donors lean left
Anne Arundel, MD	17.0	−0.101	−0.12	−0.08	300,644	12,835	Donors lean left
Baltimore, MD	29.5	−0.192	−0.21	−0.18	404,611	16,353	Donors lean left
Charles, MD	47.6	−0.299	−0.34	−0.26	87,750	1,989	Donors lean left
Frederick, MD	9.8	−0.187	−0.22	−0.16	141,357	4,536	Donors lean left
Howard, MD	19.2	−0.420	−0.44	−0.40	177,823	8,811	Donors lean left
Kent, MD	13.9	−0.095	−0.17	−0.02	10,524	641	Donors lean left
Montgomery, MD	18.1	−0.620	−0.63	−0.61	520,791	44,044	Donors lean left
Prince George's, MD	59.7	−0.675	−0.69	−0.66	416,298	13,183	Donors lean left
Talbot, MD	11.4	+0.036	−0.02	+0.09	22,008	1,400	Donors lean right
Baltimore city, MD	60.0	−0.659	−0.67	−0.65	232,634	11,002	Donors lean left
Barnstable, MA	2.8	−0.434	−0.45	−0.42	147,305	8,714	Donors lean left
Berkshire, MA	2.5	−0.744	−0.76	−0.73	69,769	4,151	Donors lean left
Bristol, MA	3.9	−0.336	−0.35	−0.32	273,249	7,640	Donors lean left
Dukes, MA	3.4	−0.789	−0.83	−0.75	12,545	1,132	Donors lean left
Essex, MA	3.4	−0.393	−0.40	−0.38	412,035	19,895	Donors lean left
Franklin, MA	1.1	−0.815	−0.84	−0.79	41,231	2,730	Donors lean left
Hampden, MA	7.7	−0.299	−0.32	−0.28	213,266	7,389	Donors lean left
Hampshire, MA	2.4	−0.827	−0.84	−0.81	85,643	7,012	Donors lean left
Middlesex, MA	4.8	−0.642	−0.65	−0.64	844,152	65,745	Donors lean left
Nantucket, MA	8.3	−0.595	−0.66	−0.53	7,155	473	Donors lean left
Norfolk, MA	6.9	−0.413	−0.42	−0.40	398,606	19,805	Donors lean left
Plymouth, MA	8.4	−0.280	−0.30	−0.26	294,857	11,536	Donors lean left
Suffolk, MA	18.3	−0.658	−0.66	−0.65	329,135	30,811	Donors lean left
Worcester, MA	4.6	−0.325	−0.34	−0.31	420,456	16,172	Donors lean left
Genesee, MI	19.3	−0.269	−0.29	−0.24	218,104	5,020	Donors lean left
Ingham, MI	11.1	−0.330	−0.35	−0.31	141,851	9,117	Donors lean left
Kalamazoo, MI	10.7	−0.321	−0.35	−0.30	140,509	5,418	Donors lean left
Kent, MI	9.2	−0.058	−0.08	−0.04	353,656	10,227	Donors lean left
Leelanau, MI	0.5	−0.378	−0.43	−0.32	16,711	1,155	Donors lean left
Marquette, MI	1.4	−0.367	−0.42	−0.31	36,751	1,175	Donors lean left
Muskegon, MI	12.6	−0.239	−0.28	−0.20	90,776	2,193	Donors lean left
Oakland, MI	12.9	−0.218	−0.23	−0.21	760,119	33,789	Donors lean left
Saginaw, MI	18.2	−0.026	−0.06	+0.01	101,873	2,611	Donors lean left
Washtenaw, MI	11.5	−0.656	−0.67	−0.64	213,377	14,415	Donors lean left
Wayne, MI	37.3	−0.318	−0.33	−0.31	861,723	22,501	Donors lean left
Blue Earth, MN	4.5	−0.324	−0.40	−0.25	35,061	706	Donors lean left
Carlton, MN	2.4	−0.326	−0.46	−0.19	19,889	266	Donors lean left
Clay, MN	4.2	−0.234	−0.33	−0.14	31,400	575	Donors lean left
Cook, MN	0.7	−0.742	−0.84	−0.64	3,699	190	Donors lean left
Dakota, MN	7.0	−0.301	−0.33	−0.27	255,793	5,568	Donors lean left
Hennepin, MN	13.2	−0.536	−0.55	−0.53	738,596	31,656	Donors lean left
Lake, MN	0.4	−0.636	−0.77	−0.50	7,040	161	Donors lean left
Nicollet, MN	3.5	−0.353	−0.49	−0.22	18,640	237	Donors lean left
Olmsted, MN	6.9	−0.313	−0.36	−0.27	89,183	2,017	Donors lean left
Ramsey, MN	11.8	−0.631	−0.65	−0.61	288,996	10,485	Donors lean left
St. Louis, MN	1.6	−0.470	−0.51	−0.43	116,721	2,515	Donors lean left
Washington, MN	5.1	−0.301	−0.34	−0.27	162,929	3,724	Donors lean left
Winona, MN	1.5	−0.267	−0.36	−0.17	26,560	490	Donors lean left
Adams, MS	54.2	+0.390	+0.22	+0.56	13,613	158	Donors lean right
Bolivar, MS	63.6	+0.406	+0.22	+0.59	13,575	129	Donors lean right
Clay, MS	59.8	+0.394	+0.12	+0.67	10,025	59	Donors lean right
Coahoma, MS	75.6	+0.126	−0.09	+0.34	8,395	90	Donors lean right
Copiah, MS	51.2	+0.373	+0.09	+0.66	12,720	54	Donors lean right
Hinds, MS	72.2	+0.218	+0.17	+0.26	98,691	1,945	Donors lean right
Holmes, MS	82.4	−0.087	−0.52	+0.35	7,957	28	Donors lean left
Jasper, MS	52.9	+0.833	+0.54	+1.12	8,643	33	Donors lean right
Leflore, MS	74.5	+0.547	+0.35	+0.74	10,777	110	Donors lean right
Marshall, MS	45.1	+0.317	+0.07	+0.57	15,623	82	Donors lean right
Noxubee, MS	72.9	+0.699	+0.30	+1.10	5,280	27	Donors lean right
Oktibbeha, MS	36.2	−0.018	−0.16	+0.12	19,303	266	Donors lean left
Pike, MS	53.8	+0.411	+0.21	+0.61	17,125	118	Donors lean right
Sharkey, MS	75.1	+0.881	+0.57	+1.20	2,153	25	Donors lean right
Sunflower, MS	73.3	+0.708	+0.51	+0.90	9,580	77	Donors lean right
Warren, MS	48.9	+0.354	+0.21	+0.49	20,807	239	Donors lean right
Washington, MS	71.6	+0.420	+0.27	+0.57	17,803	185	Donors lean right
Yazoo, MS	56.9	+0.844	+0.66	+1.03	10,328	92	Donors lean right
Boone, MO	9.2	−0.379	−0.41	−0.35	88,710	3,332	Donors lean left
Jackson, MO	22.5	−0.448	−0.47	−0.43	326,377	8,537	Donors lean left
St. Louis, MO	24.1	−0.266	−0.28	−0.25	527,644	18,470	Donors lean left
St. Louis city, MO	43.8	−0.696	−0.72	−0.68	131,563	4,257	Donors lean left
Big Horn, MT	0.1	+0.284	+0.03	+0.54	4,698	80	Donors lean right
Blaine, MT	0.4	+0.375	+0.17	+0.58	3,058	106	Donors lean right
Deer Lodge, MT	0.9	−0.402	−0.52	−0.28	4,748	184	Donors lean left
Gallatin, MT	0.4	−0.194	−0.23	−0.16	68,740	3,697	Donors lean left
Glacier, MT	0.3	+0.253	+0.06	+0.44	5,494	126	Donors lean right
Missoula, MT	0.5	−0.476	−0.50	−0.45	69,704	4,316	Donors lean left
Silver Bow, MT	0.2	−0.250	−0.31	−0.19	18,137	807	Donors lean left
Douglas, NE	10.5	−0.137	−0.16	−0.11	269,509	5,980	Donors lean left
Lancaster, NE	3.7	−0.336	−0.37	−0.30	152,385	3,366	Donors lean left
Clark, NV	11.5	−0.086	−0.10	−0.07	952,782	21,629	Donors lean left
Washoe, NV	2.3	−0.102	−0.13	−0.08	244,888	8,427	Donors lean left
Carroll, NH	0.6	−0.307	−0.36	−0.25	32,799	1,231	Donors lean left
Cheshire, NH	0.7	−0.607	−0.65	−0.57	43,398	1,681	Donors lean left
Grafton, NH	1.1	−0.645	−0.67	−0.61	53,085	2,708	Donors lean left
Hillsborough, NH	2.2	−0.336	−0.36	−0.31	226,969	7,210	Donors lean left
Merrimack, NH	1.5	−0.505	−0.53	−0.48	88,244	3,264	Donors lean left
Rockingham, NH	0.7	−0.319	−0.34	−0.29	195,922	6,331	Donors lean left
Strafford, NH	1.1	−0.553	−0.59	−0.51	72,210	2,041	Donors lean left
Sullivan, NH	0.6	−0.545	−0.61	−0.48	23,898	802	Donors lean left
Atlantic, NJ	13.1	−0.245	−0.28	−0.21	138,246	2,337	Donors lean left
Bergen, NJ	5.3	−0.393	−0.41	−0.38	490,384	14,359	Donors lean left
Burlington, NJ	15.9	−0.435	−0.46	−0.41	257,940	5,675	Donors lean left
Camden, NJ	18.0	−0.507	−0.53	−0.49	261,272	5,603	Donors lean left
Cumberland, NJ	17.5	−0.078	−0.15	0.00	61,694	735	Donors lean left
Essex, NJ	36.7	−0.649	−0.66	−0.64	342,295	12,548	Donors lean left
Gloucester, NJ	10.1	−0.350	−0.39	−0.31	170,042	2,108	Donors lean left
Hudson, NJ	10.6	−0.722	−0.74	−0.70	247,150	6,251	Donors lean left
Mercer, NJ	18.8	−0.561	−0.58	−0.54	174,173	7,770	Donors lean left
Middlesex, NJ	9.6	−0.481	−0.50	−0.46	369,717	7,514	Donors lean left
Morris, NJ	3.0	−0.273	−0.29	−0.25	295,015	9,213	Donors lean left
Passaic, NJ	10.0	−0.324	−0.36	−0.29	221,106	3,427	Donors lean left
Somerset, NJ	9.3	−0.347	−0.37	−0.32	183,169	6,234	Donors lean left
Union, NJ	19.6	−0.438	−0.46	−0.42	250,247	6,564	Donors lean left
Bernalillo, NM	2.5	−0.421	−0.43	−0.41	309,892	17,755	Donors lean left
Cibola, NM	1.6	−0.129	−0.31	+0.05	8,720	144	Donors lean left
Doña Ana, NM	1.4	−0.245	−0.28	−0.21	80,759	3,540	Donors lean left
Grant, NM	0.6	−0.385	−0.45	−0.32	14,143	830	Donors lean left
Guadalupe, NM	1.8	−0.239	−0.47	0.00	2,151	56	Donors lean left
Los Alamos, NM	0.8	−0.413	−0.47	−0.35	11,832	1,052	Donors lean left
McKinley, NM	0.5	−0.399	−0.49	−0.30	25,830	380	Donors lean left
Mora, NM	0.0	−0.273	−0.51	−0.04	2,648	71	Donors lean left
Rio Arriba, NM	0.5	−0.615	−0.68	−0.55	16,398	552	Donors lean left
Sandoval, NM	2.1	−0.424	−0.46	−0.39	74,762	3,193	Donors lean left
San Miguel, NM	1.2	−0.622	−0.69	−0.56	11,309	498	Donors lean left
Santa Fe, NM	0.8	−0.754	−0.77	−0.74	80,859	9,669	Donors lean left
Socorro, NM	0.5	−0.165	−0.27	−0.06	6,977	359	Donors lean left
Taos, NM	0.3	−0.841	−0.87	−0.81	16,836	1,249	Donors lean left
Albany, NY	11.5	−0.437	−0.45	−0.42	150,555	6,876	Donors lean left
Bronx, NY	28.7	−0.666	−0.68	−0.65	423,114	6,603	Donors lean left
Broome, NY	5.0	−0.227	−0.26	−0.19	90,810	2,656	Donors lean left
Clinton, NY	3.4	−0.376	−0.44	−0.32	34,878	913	Donors lean left
Columbia, NY	3.8	−0.588	−0.62	−0.55	34,850	2,166	Donors lean left
Dutchess, NY	9.6	−0.421	−0.45	−0.40	148,315	5,701	Donors lean left
Erie, NY	12.4	−0.275	−0.29	−0.26	464,701	11,948	Donors lean left
Essex, NY	2.4	−0.435	−0.50	−0.37	18,923	738	Donors lean left
Kings, NY	28.0	−0.817	−0.82	−0.81	906,082	53,300	Donors lean left
Monroe, NY	13.8	−0.466	−0.48	−0.45	371,407	9,948	Donors lean left
Nassau, NY	11.0	−0.233	−0.24	−0.22	723,220	24,604	Donors lean left
New York, NY	12.4	−0.722	−0.73	−0.72	688,225	82,833	Donors lean left
Onondaga, NY	10.4	−0.357	−0.38	−0.34	229,513	6,799	Donors lean left
Queens, NY	16.7	−0.575	−0.58	−0.56	781,703	21,248	Donors lean left
Rensselaer, NY	6.1	−0.353	−0.39	−0.32	77,469	2,655	Donors lean left
Rockland, NY	10.7	−0.380	−0.40	−0.36	148,988	5,111	Donors lean left
Saratoga, NY	1.6	−0.368	−0.40	−0.34	129,776	4,033	Donors lean left
Schenectady, NY	9.7	−0.353	−0.39	−0.32	73,206	2,225	Donors lean left
Tompkins, NY	3.7	−0.902	−0.92	−0.89	44,715	3,703	Donors lean left
Ulster, NY	5.6	−0.705	−0.73	−0.69	95,560	4,766	Donors lean left
Westchester, NY	13.0	−0.524	−0.53	−0.52	457,084	28,687	Donors lean left
Anson, NC	46.4	+0.095	−0.11	+0.30	11,110	95	Donors lean right
Bertie, NC	60.3	+0.174	−0.04	+0.39	9,756	87	Donors lean right
Buncombe, NC	5.5	−0.631	−0.65	−0.61	158,927	7,570	Donors lean left
Chatham, NC	10.6	−0.577	−0.61	−0.54	47,973	2,423	Donors lean left
Cumberland, NC	36.5	−0.020	−0.06	+0.02	144,501	2,442	Donors lean left
Durham, NC	33.5	−0.720	−0.74	−0.70	177,147	7,257	Donors lean left
Edgecombe, NC	56.4	+0.033	−0.08	+0.14	25,295	263	Donors lean right
Forsyth, NC	25.0	−0.122	−0.15	−0.09	198,097	5,065	Donors lean left
Guilford, NC	33.7	−0.202	−0.23	−0.18	280,380	6,703	Donors lean left
Halifax, NC	51.7	−0.049	−0.16	+0.06	25,625	264	Donors lean left
Hertford, NC	57.7	+0.149	−0.04	+0.34	10,576	91	Donors lean right
Hoke, NC	32.3	−0.024	−0.18	+0.14	21,257	170	Donors lean left
Mecklenburg, NC	30.4	−0.225	−0.24	−0.21	557,318	14,217	Donors lean left
Nash, NC	40.2	+0.173	+0.11	+0.23	51,774	932	Donors lean right
New Hanover, NC	11.8	−0.112	−0.14	−0.08	129,469	4,063	Donors lean left
Northampton, NC	54.9	−0.144	−0.33	+0.04	10,058	102	Donors lean left
Orange, NC	10.5	−0.790	−0.80	−0.78	83,770	6,374	Donors lean left
Pasquotank, NC	35.0	+0.048	−0.07	+0.16	19,602	285	Donors lean right
Pitt, NC	34.7	−0.011	−0.06	+0.04	86,234	1,596	Donors lean left
Vance, NC	48.2	+0.067	−0.04	+0.18	20,822	263	Donors lean right
Wake, NC	19.1	−0.345	−0.36	−0.33	619,533	19,577	Donors lean left
Warren, NC	48.6	−0.064	−0.25	+0.13	10,152	131	Donors lean left
Washington, NC	48.1	+0.253	+0.01	+0.50	6,177	71	Donors lean right
Watauga, NC	1.6	−0.450	−0.51	−0.39	31,573	1,050	Donors lean left
Wilson, NC	39.0	+0.154	+0.08	+0.23	40,335	655	Donors lean right
Rolette, ND	0.4	−0.554	−0.85	−0.25	3,739	33	Donors lean left
Athens, OH	2.5	−0.450	−0.49	−0.41	25,634	1,548	Donors lean left
Cuyahoga, OH	28.7	−0.276	−0.29	−0.26	618,875	23,440	Donors lean left
Franklin, OH	22.8	−0.242	−0.25	−0.23	620,381	24,733	Donors lean left
Hamilton, OH	24.7	−0.064	−0.08	−0.05	424,152	16,160	Donors lean left
Lucas, OH	18.8	−0.112	−0.14	−0.09	197,174	5,534	Donors lean left
Montgomery, OH	20.4	−0.042	−0.06	−0.02	264,098	7,598	Donors lean left
Summit, OH	14.0	−0.160	−0.18	−0.14	276,501	8,586	Donors lean left
Benton, OR	1.1	−0.775	−0.80	−0.75	50,705	2,808	Donors lean left
Clackamas, OR	0.9	−0.508	−0.53	−0.49	249,552	8,097	Donors lean left
Clatsop, OR	0.8	−0.584	−0.65	−0.52	23,134	710	Donors lean left
Deschutes, OR	0.4	−0.490	−0.52	−0.46	121,608	4,163	Donors lean left
Hood River, OR	0.7	−0.595	−0.66	−0.53	12,719	611	Donors lean left
Lane, OR	1.0	−0.713	−0.73	−0.70	214,702	8,764	Donors lean left
Lincoln, OR	0.3	−0.692	−0.74	−0.64	29,845	1,091	Donors lean left
Marion, OR	1.1	−0.388	−0.42	−0.36	159,874	4,011	Donors lean left
Multnomah, OR	5.3	−0.832	−0.84	−0.82	450,244	27,726	Donors lean left
Washington, OR	2.1	−0.624	−0.64	−0.61	309,013	10,104	Donors lean left
Allegheny, PA	12.6	−0.360	−0.37	−0.35	713,672	22,455	Donors lean left
Bucks, PA	3.7	−0.315	−0.33	−0.30	392,079	11,801	Donors lean left
Centre, PA	3.2	−0.466	−0.50	−0.43	76,427	2,948	Donors lean left
Chester, PA	5.1	−0.309	−0.33	−0.29	310,937	11,849	Donors lean left
Dauphin, PA	17.0	−0.077	−0.11	−0.04	145,391	3,383	Donors lean left
Delaware, PA	21.6	−0.342	−0.36	−0.32	324,955	10,870	Donors lean left
Erie, PA	6.9	−0.137	−0.18	−0.10	135,155	2,515	Donors lean left
Lackawanna, PA	2.8	−0.364	−0.39	−0.34	114,325	2,937	Donors lean left
Lehigh, PA	5.8	−0.156	−0.19	−0.12	182,547	4,019	Donors lean left
Monroe, PA	12.9	−0.154	−0.20	−0.10	82,786	1,720	Donors lean left
Montgomery, PA	9.1	−0.424	−0.44	−0.41	504,971	19,994	Donors lean left
Northampton, PA	5.5	−0.229	−0.26	−0.20	168,941	3,962	Donors lean left
Philadelphia, PA	39.2	−0.708	−0.72	−0.70	736,530	22,171	Donors lean left
Bristol, RI	1.0	−0.572	−0.61	−0.54	27,795	1,478	Donors lean left
Kent, RI	1.7	−0.354	−0.39	−0.32	91,114	2,527	Donors lean left
Newport, RI	3.6	−0.526	−0.56	−0.49	45,208	2,168	Donors lean left
Providence, RI	7.5	−0.567	−0.58	−0.55	267,563	9,814	Donors lean left
Washington, RI	1.2	−0.488	−0.52	−0.46	74,367	3,048	Donors lean left
Allendale, SC	69.7	+0.462	+0.11	+0.81	3,553	30	Donors lean right
Bamberg, SC	59.2	−0.137	−0.37	+0.10	6,427	58	Donors lean left
Charleston, SC	24.3	−0.073	−0.10	−0.05	214,782	7,861	Donors lean left
Fairfield, SC	55.8	+0.017	−0.15	+0.19	12,007	136	Donors lean right
Hampton, SC	52.2	+0.276	+0.03	+0.52	9,229	63	Donors lean right
Jasper, SC	36.8	+0.059	−0.07	+0.19	14,263	314	Donors lean right
Lee, SC	62.8	+0.203	−0.04	+0.45	8,337	64	Donors lean right
Marion, SC	55.8	−0.067	−0.19	+0.05	14,583	188	Donors lean left
Marlboro, SC	48.8	−0.001	−0.17	+0.17	11,334	102	Donors lean left
Orangeburg, SC	61.0	−0.075	−0.16	+0.01	40,898	485	Donors lean left
Richland, SC	46.9	−0.065	−0.09	−0.04	190,883	6,257	Donors lean left
Sumter, SC	46.3	+0.307	+0.22	+0.39	48,379	563	Donors lean right
Williamsburg, SC	63.6	+0.169	0.00	+0.34	15,821	133	Donors lean right
Clay, SD	1.8	−0.449	−0.59	−0.30	5,539	161	Donors lean left
Davidson, TN	25.5	−0.316	−0.33	−0.30	299,921	11,400	Donors lean left
Haywood, TN	49.8	+0.424	+0.15	+0.70	7,355	62	Donors lean right
Shelby, TN	52.9	−0.008	−0.03	+0.02	375,920	7,775	Donors lean left
Bexar, TX	7.2	+0.015	0.00	+0.03	757,070	21,728	Donors lean right
Cameron, TX	0.4	+0.101	+0.05	+0.15	113,095	1,628	Donors lean right
Dallas, TX	22.2	−0.098	−0.11	−0.09	905,652	34,865	Donors lean left
Dimmit, TX	0.6	+0.734	+0.44	+1.03	3,648	39	Donors lean right
Duval, TX	1.0	−0.111	−0.45	+0.23	5,018	42	Donors lean left
El Paso, TX	3.0	−0.105	−0.13	−0.08	262,457	5,462	Donors lean left
Fort Bend, TX	20.2	+0.076	+0.05	+0.10	353,270	7,548	Donors lean right
Harris, TX	18.6	+0.031	+0.02	+0.04	1,618,823	52,471	Donors lean right
Hays, TX	3.8	−0.294	−0.33	−0.26	107,204	3,889	Donors lean left
Hidalgo, TX	0.5	−0.005	−0.04	+0.03	218,726	3,097	Donors lean left
Jim Hogg, TX	0.2	+0.374	−0.08	+0.83	2,030	25	Donors lean right
Maverick, TX	0.3	+0.158	−0.04	+0.36	15,213	95	Donors lean right
Presidio, TX	0.0	−0.518	−0.74	−0.30	2,184	69	Donors lean left
Starr, TX	0.2	+0.200	+0.04	+0.36	17,370	117	Donors lean right
Tarrant, TX	16.8	+0.074	+0.06	+0.09	821,308	21,852	Donors lean right
Travis, TX	7.9	−0.498	−0.51	−0.49	597,197	38,262	Donors lean left
Webb, TX	0.4	−0.109	−0.16	−0.05	67,718	1,119	Donors lean left
Willacy, TX	1.1	+0.660	+0.41	+0.91	5,549	69	Donors lean right
Williamson, TX	6.4	−0.172	−0.20	−0.15	283,524	8,006	Donors lean left
Zavala, TX	0.8	+0.301	−0.10	+0.70	4,354	32	Donors lean right
Grand, UT	0.2	−0.683	−0.79	−0.58	5,054	241	Donors lean left
Salt Lake, UT	1.7	−0.376	−0.39	−0.36	520,080	12,366	Donors lean left
Summit, UT	0.5	−0.430	−0.48	−0.38	25,496	1,337	Donors lean left
Addison, VT	1.0	−0.800	−0.84	−0.76	21,259	1,288	Donors lean left
Bennington, VT	1.0	−0.692	−0.74	−0.64	19,819	905	Donors lean left
Caledonia, VT	0.7	−0.723	−0.78	−0.66	15,562	557	Donors lean left
Chittenden, VT	2.4	−0.808	−0.82	−0.79	95,978	5,183	Donors lean left
Franklin, VT	0.3	−0.520	−0.60	−0.44	24,885	460	Donors lean left
Grand Isle, VT	0.6	−0.762	−0.86	−0.66	4,715	207	Donors lean left
Lamoille, VT	0.9	−0.639	−0.70	−0.57	14,403	603	Donors lean left
Orange, VT	0.4	−0.841	−0.88	−0.80	16,491	889	Donors lean left
Orleans, VT	0.8	−0.708	−0.79	−0.63	13,659	369	Donors lean left
Rutland, VT	0.7	−0.634	−0.69	−0.58	32,902	935	Donors lean left
Washington, VT	0.8	−0.818	−0.84	−0.79	34,119	2,172	Donors lean left
Windham, VT	0.9	−0.899	−0.92	−0.88	25,207	1,819	Donors lean left
Windsor, VT	0.6	−0.843	−0.87	−0.82	33,347	1,833	Donors lean left
Albemarle, VA	9.1	−0.495	−0.53	−0.46	63,270	3,609	Donors lean left
Arlington, VA	9.1	−0.552	−0.57	−0.54	127,662	12,157	Donors lean left
Brunswick, VA	52.8	+0.117	−0.19	+0.42	7,909	57	Donors lean right
Charles City, VA	42.2	+0.167	−0.14	+0.47	4,385	57	Donors lean right
Chesterfield, VA	22.7	−0.121	−0.16	−0.09	200,261	3,855	Donors lean left
Fairfax, VA	9.5	−0.335	−0.35	−0.33	588,344	35,920	Donors lean left
Henrico, VA	29.3	−0.219	−0.25	−0.19	180,012	5,120	Donors lean left
James City, VA	12.4	−0.127	−0.18	−0.07	48,706	1,743	Donors lean left
Loudoun, VA	7.5	−0.284	−0.31	−0.26	220,460	6,211	Donors lean left
Montgomery, VA	4.0	−0.532	−0.58	−0.48	43,847	1,221	Donors lean left
Northampton, VA	31.3	−0.214	−0.37	−0.05	6,622	170	Donors lean left
Prince Edward, VA	30.5	−0.102	−0.29	+0.08	9,407	138	Donors lean left
Prince William, VA	20.0	−0.115	−0.15	−0.08	224,085	4,228	Donors lean left
Stafford, VA	18.5	−0.038	−0.10	+0.02	77,881	1,393	Donors lean left
Surry, VA	41.1	+0.111	−0.26	+0.48	4,422	42	Donors lean right
Sussex, VA	54.8	−0.367	−0.73	0.00	5,046	26	Donors lean left
Alexandria city, VA	21.1	−0.412	−0.43	−0.39	80,784	5,491	Donors lean left
Charlottesville city, VA	17.0	−0.809	−0.84	−0.78	23,790	1,437	Donors lean left
Chesapeake city, VA	28.8	+0.021	−0.04	+0.08	124,557	1,616	Donors lean right
Danville city, VA	49.5	+0.194	+0.07	+0.32	19,138	266	Donors lean right
Fairfax city, VA	5.7	−0.353	−0.42	−0.29	13,181	793	Donors lean left
Falls Church city, VA	4.1	−0.621	−0.67	−0.57	8,636	942	Donors lean left
Franklin city, VA	54.7	+0.172	−0.20	+0.55	4,012	39	Donors lean right
Fredericksburg city, VA	18.9	−0.265	−0.35	−0.18	12,554	502	Donors lean left
Hampton city, VA	48.7	−0.359	−0.42	−0.30	64,650	1,126	Donors lean left
Harrisonburg city, VA	7.1	−0.319	−0.43	−0.21	16,613	365	Donors lean left
Hopewell city, VA	41.9	−0.190	−0.48	+0.10	9,450	50	Donors lean left
Lexington city, VA	6.0	−0.540	−0.66	−0.42	2,697	192	Donors lean left
Lynchburg city, VA	27.6	−0.084	−0.16	0.00	35,145	747	Donors lean left
Manassas city, VA	12.2	−0.158	−0.26	−0.06	16,612	483	Donors lean left
Manassas Park city, VA	13.8	−0.109	−0.32	+0.10	5,971	108	Donors lean left
Martinsville city, VA	44.6	+0.060	−0.10	+0.22	5,931	143	Donors lean right
Newport News city, VA	40.3	−0.164	−0.22	−0.11	79,476	1,291	Donors lean left
Norfolk city, VA	39.5	−0.358	−0.40	−0.32	87,883	2,173	Donors lean left
Petersburg city, VA	75.2	−0.285	−0.46	−0.11	13,973	107	Donors lean left
Portsmouth city, VA	51.1	−0.207	−0.30	−0.12	43,703	528	Donors lean left
Radford city, VA	9.5	−0.325	−0.50	−0.15	6,144	136	Donors lean left
Richmond city, VA	43.2	−0.371	−0.40	−0.34	108,778	3,714	Donors lean left
Roanoke city, VA	28.1	−0.234	−0.29	−0.17	42,380	1,108	Donors lean left
Staunton city, VA	10.5	−0.429	−0.53	−0.33	12,676	388	Donors lean left
Suffolk city, VA	41.1	−0.099	−0.18	−0.02	48,758	662	Donors lean left
Virginia Beach city, VA	18.2	+0.035	0.00	+0.07	222,480	4,904	Donors lean right
Williamsburg city, VA	14.7	−0.316	−0.40	−0.24	6,753	608	Donors lean left
Winchester city, VA	8.8	−0.087	−0.19	+0.01	11,831	420	Donors lean left
Clallam, WA	0.9	−0.296	−0.34	−0.25	47,783	2,417	Donors lean left
Clark, WA	1.9	−0.357	−0.38	−0.34	266,627	8,984	Donors lean left
Island, WA	2.4	−0.402	−0.44	−0.37	51,959	3,211	Donors lean left
Jefferson, WA	0.5	−0.680	−0.71	−0.65	24,135	2,303	Donors lean left
King, WA	6.4	−0.617	−0.62	−0.61	1,176,477	82,113	Donors lean left
Kitsap, WA	2.3	−0.457	−0.48	−0.44	151,840	7,507	Donors lean left
Pierce, WA	6.8	−0.234	−0.25	−0.22	447,236	13,942	Donors lean left
San Juan, WA	0.5	−0.672	−0.72	−0.63	12,782	1,295	Donors lean left
Skagit, WA	0.7	−0.335	−0.37	−0.30	71,014	3,117	Donors lean left
Snohomish, WA	3.4	−0.344	−0.36	−0.33	423,156	13,697	Donors lean left
Thurston, WA	3.0	−0.485	−0.50	−0.47	161,885	8,440	Donors lean left
Whatcom, WA	0.9	−0.509	−0.53	−0.49	134,149	6,667	Donors lean left
Whitman, WA	1.6	−0.151	−0.22	−0.08	20,251	832	Donors lean left
Ashland, WI	0.6	−0.521	−0.62	−0.42	8,642	345	Donors lean left
Bayfield, WI	0.5	−0.542	−0.61	−0.48	10,764	753	Donors lean left
Dane, WI	4.9	−0.599	−0.61	−0.59	338,985	25,420	Donors lean left
Door, WI	0.2	−0.193	−0.26	−0.13	19,796	1,177	Donors lean left
Douglas, WI	1.0	−0.233	−0.31	−0.16	24,141	709	Donors lean left
Eau Claire, WI	1.2	−0.142	−0.18	−0.10	56,961	3,014	Donors lean left
Green, WI	0.7	−0.025	−0.11	+0.06	21,020	700	Donors lean left
Iowa, WI	0.8	−0.271	−0.35	−0.20	13,737	726	Donors lean left
La Crosse, WI	1.6	−0.220	−0.26	−0.18	66,530	3,429	Donors lean left
Menominee, WI	0.5	+0.032	−0.43	+0.49	1,581	29	Donors lean right
Milwaukee, WI	25.7	−0.462	−0.47	−0.45	451,627	23,734	Donors lean left
Portage, WI	0.7	−0.195	−0.24	−0.15	39,727	1,715	Donors lean left
Rock, WI	4.6	−0.052	−0.09	−0.01	83,796	2,935	Donors lean left
Sauk, WI	0.7	−0.062	−0.12	0.00	35,601	1,347	Donors lean left
Albany, WY	1.0	−0.364	−0.44	−0.29	17,671	649	Donors lean left
Teton, WY	0.6	−0.230	−0.29	−0.17	14,189	1,158	Donors lean left

The dots rise to the right, and the vote-weighted line is flatter than the line that counts each county once at the high end of the Black share axis, because most of the counties with the most voters there have donors left of zero. Dot area is the county's two-party votes. The lines are means of donor lean for counties grouped into bins of Black share, one counting each county once and one weighting by two-party votes, with 95% intervals. The vertical rule marks a Black share of 30%.Note: Votes are full counts. The data table gives each county's 95% interval for its donor lean, which treats its reliable donors as independent draws; the tooltip gives n, the number of reliable donors, and a county with a small pool has a noisy donor lean. The intervals on the binned means are 95% intervals across the counties in each bin.Note: The counties of Connecticut, which have no college share or median income in the demographic file, are left out.Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; donors are not weighted, county values are counted once, and the second set of estimates is weighted by 2020 two-party votes

A regression of donor lean on Black share fits a straight line and reports how far donor lean moves for each 10 points of Black share (Figure 6). With standard errors clustered by state, the coefficient stays above zero after adjusting for college share and median household income when each county counts once, and its interval includes zero when counties are weighted by their votes. A higher college share goes with a more left-leaning donor pool in both weightings.

Figure 6

The adjusted Black share slope is above zero when each county counts once and includes zero when counties are weighted by votes

Regression coefficients of county donor lean, per 10 points of Black share or college share, Democratic-voting counties (n = 498), 95% intervals from standard errors clustered on state

Each county counted once
Weighted by two-party votes

Show data

Data for The adjusted Black share slope is above zero when each county counts once and includes zero when counties are weighted by votes
Measure	Weighting	Change in donor lean per 10 points	95% interval, low	95% interval, high	Counties
Black share, alone	Each county counted once	+0.101	+0.077	+0.125	498
Black share, alone	Weighted by two-party votes	+0.040	+0.005	+0.075	498
Black share, adjusted	Each county counted once	+0.068	+0.042	+0.094	498
Black share, adjusted	Weighted by two-party votes	+0.028	−0.006	+0.062	498
College share, adjusted	Each county counted once	−0.120	−0.156	−0.085	498
College share, adjusted	Weighted by two-party votes	−0.108	−0.154	−0.061	498

Read each dot against the dashed line at zero. Black share alone has an interval above zero under both weightings; adjusted for the other two measures, the interval stays above zero when each county counts once and includes zero when counties are weighted by their votes. Adjusted means that college share and median household income are held fixed for the Black share row, and Black share and median household income for the college share row. The dots are coefficients of a regression of county donor lean on the three measures, with standard errors clustered on the 46 states.Note: Adjusted rows hold the other two measures fixed in one regression. Democratic-voting counties without a college share or median household income, which are in Connecticut, are left out.Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; donors are not weighted; regression estimates count each county once or weight by 2020 two-party votes

Counties with a large Black share are not the only ones. 10 of the Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors are at least 50% Hispanic and under 30% Black, 8 of them in Texas, mostly in South Texas. Of the other 14, 9 have a Democratic share below 55%, such as Tarrant County in Texas, which voted almost evenly and has a donor lean close to zero.

Figure 7 names the counties at the two ends, among counties with at least 75 reliable donors. The Democratic-voting counties with the most right-leaning donors are mostly Mississippi counties, with counties in Georgia and Louisiana. Education and income gradients in the donor pool and in the vote are compared in Chapter 14.2, The geography of donations (planned).

Figure 7

Mississippi holds 7 of the 10 Democratic-voting counties with the most right-leaning donors

The 10 Democratic-voting counties with the highest mean CFscore of reliable donors and the 10 Republican-voting counties with the lowest, among counties with a pool large enough to rank, 2020 vote

Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
Republican vote, left-leaning donors

Show data

Data for Mississippi holds 7 of the 10 Democratic-voting counties with the most right-leaning donors
County	Group	Democratic share (%)	Donor lean (mean CFscore)	95% interval, low	95% interval, high	Reliable donors	Black share (%)
Yazoo, MS	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors	53.2	+0.84	+0.66	+1.03	92	56.9
Sunflower, MS	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors	70.8	+0.71	+0.51	+0.91	77	73.3
Washington, GA	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors	50.4	+0.68	+0.49	+0.86	117	53.0
Leflore, MS	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors	71.0	+0.55	+0.35	+0.74	110	74.5
Iberville Parish, LA	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors	51.9	+0.46	+0.32	+0.60	170	45.8
Caddo Parish, LA	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors	53.4	+0.43	+0.39	+0.48	2,088	48.9
Washington, MS	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors	70.2	+0.42	+0.27	+0.57	185	71.6
Pike, MS	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors	50.5	+0.41	+0.21	+0.61	118	53.8
Bolivar, MS	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors	65.6	+0.41	+0.22	+0.59	129	63.6
Adams, MS	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors	58.2	+0.39	+0.22	+0.56	158	54.2
Floyd, VA	Republican vote, left-leaning donors	32.5	−0.65	−0.77	−0.53	192	2.1
Schuyler, NY	Republican vote, left-leaning donors	41.0	−0.61	−0.71	−0.50	232	0.9
Jackson, OR	Republican vote, left-leaning donors	48.2	−0.60	−0.63	−0.58	4,773	0.7
Tillamook, OR	Republican vote, left-leaning donors	49.1	−0.60	−0.68	−0.52	492	0.7
Trinity, CA	Republican vote, left-leaning donors	47.2	−0.56	−0.70	−0.41	161	0.8
Nelson, VA	Republican vote, left-leaning donors	47.3	−0.52	−0.61	−0.42	351	12.0
Washington, ME	Republican vote, left-leaning donors	39.9	−0.51	−0.61	−0.42	372	0.6
Madison, NC	Republican vote, left-leaning donors	38.1	−0.51	−0.60	−0.42	371	1.2
Rice, MN	Republican vote, left-leaning donors	49.9	−0.51	−0.57	−0.44	842	6.2
St. Lawrence, NY	Republican vote, left-leaning donors	44.0	−0.50	−0.57	−0.44	865	2.2

The upper ten rows are Democratic-voting counties whose donors lean furthest right, and the lower ten are Republican-voting counties whose donors lean furthest left. Each dot is the mean CFscore of the county's reliable donors, with a 95% interval from the standard error of the county mean, treating the county's donors as independent draws. Counties are ranked among those with at least 75 reliable donors.Note: Counties are named only when their pool has enough donors to rank; the smallest pools are in the map and the scatter but not in this figure.Note: Votes are full counts. The interval is the 95% interval of the county's donor mean and treats its donors as independent draws.Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights

Pool size moves the two sides in opposite directions

Figure 8 groups counties by the number of reliable donors. The share of Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors falls from 78.6% in the smallest pools to 6.3% in the largest, and the share of Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors rises from 12.9% to 36.5%. The median county in the analysis has 229 reliable donors, and the median Democratic-voting county with right-leaning donors has 117. 45 of the 98 Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors have fewer than 100 reliable donors, so the average in those counties rests on few donors.

Figure 8

Democratic-voting counties diverge mostly in small pools, Republican-voting counties in large ones

Share of counties whose donor pool leans opposite to the vote, by number of reliable donors in the county, for Democratic-voting and Republican-voting counties, 2020 vote

Democratic-voting counties
Republican-voting counties

Show data

Data for Democratic-voting counties diverge mostly in small pools, Republican-voting counties in large ones
Reliable donors in the county	Vote	Divergent counties (% of counties voting that way)	Divergent counties	Counties
25 to 49 donors	Democratic-voting counties	78.6	22	28
50 to 99 donors	Democratic-voting counties	74.2	23	31
100 to 199 donors	Democratic-voting counties	45.9	17	37
200 to 499 donors	Democratic-voting counties	25.6	10	39
500 to 999 donors	Democratic-voting counties	11.8	6	51
1,000 or more donors	Democratic-voting counties	6.3	20	318
25 to 49 donors	Republican-voting counties	12.9	41	318
50 to 99 donors	Republican-voting counties	12.6	59	468
100 to 199 donors	Republican-voting counties	12.8	57	445
200 to 499 donors	Republican-voting counties	21.6	117	542
500 to 999 donors	Republican-voting counties	33.7	88	261
1,000 or more donors	Republican-voting counties	36.5	110	301

The Democratic-voting bars fall as the pool grows, and the Republican-voting bars stay at about the same level in the three smallest bands and rise in the three largest. Each bar is the percentage of counties on that side of the vote, in that band of pool size, whose reliable donors lean the other way; the tooltip gives the number of counties. Every county in the analysis has at least 25 reliable donors.Note: Each bar is the share of the counties in the analysis in that band, so it carries no sampling interval; the tooltip gives the number of counties.Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights

A small pool also gives a noisy mean. If each county's donors are a random draw from a larger set, the expected number of counties whose observed sign differs from the sign of the underlying mean is 138 (4.9%). Among the 570 divergent counties the expected number is 56 (9.8%). That benchmark uses only each county's own donors and is a lower bound. A version that shrinks each county mean toward a straight line fitted through the county dots gives 83 (14.5%), and the derivation of both is in the methods note. Noise of that size moves some counties across the line and leaves most divergent counties divergent. Noise is more likely to move the sign of a county in the group with a large Black share, where pools are smaller, and the comparison of shares at pool floors of 100 and 500 donors in Figure 4 is the check on this, and the gap remains.

Republican-voting exceptions are the less Republican counties

With zero as the neutral point, the Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are a larger group than the Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors (472 against 98), and the order reverses when the mean CFscore of all reliable donors is the neutral point (104 against 240). Their median county voted 38.4% Democratic, against 26.2% in the median Republican-voting county with right-leaning donors, and their median college share is 24.2%, against 19.6%. Figure 9 shows that the share of Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors is highest in the Northeast and lowest in the South. Figure 7 lists the 10 with the most left-leaning donors, in 7 states, and none is at least 30% Black. The size of this group depends on the donor definition and on the neutral point, as the next section shows.

Figure 9

Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are 63.5% of Northeast counties and 12.5% of Southern ones

Share of counties whose donor pool leans opposite to the vote, by Census region, for Republican-voting and Democratic-voting counties, 2020 vote

Republican-voting counties
Democratic-voting counties

Show data

Data for Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are 63.5% of Northeast counties and 12.5% of Southern ones
Region	Vote	Divergent counties (% of counties voting that way)	Divergent counties	Counties
Northeast	Republican-voting counties	63.5	73	115
Northeast	Democratic-voting counties	0.0	0	102
West	Republican-voting counties	27.8	76	273
West	Democratic-voting counties	5.1	6	117
Midwest	Republican-voting counties	22.1	184	832
Midwest	Democratic-voting counties	3.6	3	83
South	Republican-voting counties	12.5	139	1,115
South	Democratic-voting counties	44.1	89	202

The Republican-voting bars are longest in the Northeast and shortest in the South, while the Democratic-voting bars are long only in the South: 89 of the 98 Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors are there. Each bar is the percentage of counties on that side of the vote, in that region, whose reliable donors lean the other way.Note: Each bar is the share of the counties in that region, so it carries no sampling interval; the tooltip gives the number of counties.Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights

The counts depend on the definition

Figure 10 repeats the count under other definitions. Changing the donor pool, the vote year or the pool floor moves the Democratic-voting group between 62 and 188 counties and the Republican-voting group between 113 and 542. Moving the neutral point is a larger change. With the mean of all reliable donors (−0.274) the groups are 240 and 104, and with the median county (+0.19) they are 57 and 973, which makes 36.3% of counties divergent. Counting all donors with a score, which brings in donors with few recipients and donors whose score is inherited from a recipient, reverses the balance of the two groups, to 188 and 113 on a set of 3,105 counties.

Figure 10

The number of divergent counties runs from 112 to 1,030 across the definitions tested

Counties whose donor pool leans opposite to the vote under the chapter's definition and under changes to the donor pool, the pool floor, the vote year, the neutral point of the donor scale and the divergence rule

Definition	Divergent counties	Share of counties (%)	Democratic vote, right-leaning donors	Republican vote, left-leaning donors	Counties	Share of votes (%)
Chapter definition	570	20.1	98	472	2,839	16.0
Donor pool: at least 15 distinct recipients	617	25.4	75	542	2,432	18.3
Donor pool: all donors with a CFscore	301	9.7	188	113	3,105	18.3
Vote year: 2024	590	20.8	68	522	2,835	22.6
Pool floor: at least 75 donors per county	462	20.9	62	400	2,212	16.0
Neutral point: mean of all donors	344	12.1	240	104	2,839	26.9
Neutral point: median county	1,030	36.3	57	973	2,839	24.5
Divergence rule: both cut points cleared	112	3.9	27	85	2,839	1.2

Show data

Data for The number of divergent counties runs from 112 to 1,030 across the definitions tested
counties	definition	dem_right	divergent	rep_left	share	share_votes
2,839	Chapter definition	98	570	472	20.10	16
2,432	Donor pool: at least 15 distinct recipients	75	617	542	25.40	18.30
3,105	Donor pool: all donors with a CFscore	188	301	113	9.70	18.30
2,835	Vote year: 2024	68	590	522	20.80	22.60
2,212	Pool floor: at least 75 donors per county	62	462	400	20.90	16
2,839	Neutral point: mean of all donors	240	344	104	12.10	26.90
2,839	Neutral point: median county	57	1030	973	36.30	24.50
2,839	Divergence rule: both cut points cleared	27	112	85	3.90	1.20

The smallest count is the corner-class row, which needs a margin on both measures, and the largest is the row that takes the median county as the neutral point. Changing the donor pool, the vote year or the pool floor moves the Democratic-voting group between 62 and 188 counties and the Republican-voting group between 113 and 542; moving the neutral point from zero to the mean of all reliable donors gives 240 and 104. Each row gives the number of counties in each divergent group and the share of counties and of votes they hold. Each row uses its own set of counties, because a definition changes which counties reach the pool floor.Note: The 2024 row leaves out four Missouri counties (Jackson, Clay, Platte and Cass) because the 2024 returns report Kansas City separately from them.Note: Votes are full counts. Each row counts counties once, and the share of votes is weighted by 2020 two-party votes.Source: DIME public version 4.0, donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020 and 2024 (repaired file); donors are not weighted, counties are counted once, and the share of votes is weighted by two-party votes

The Black share pattern survives the changes of donor definition when each county counts once. The correlation of donor lean with Black share among Democratic-voting counties is +0.60 with the stricter donor definition and +0.55 with all donors. The vote-weighted correlation with all donors is +0.06, close to zero. Both groups exist under every definition, and the number in each changes with the definition, so the counts in this chapter describe reliable donors with zero as the neutral point and should not be read as the number of counties where donors disagree with voters in general.

A donor's CFscore is fixed, so donors who first gave in different election cycles form groups with different average scores. Reliable donors who first gave in 1980 to 1996 average +0.228 (95% CI 0.225 to 0.230), those who first gave in 1998 to 2008 average −0.081, and those who first gave in 2010 to 2016 and in 2018 to 2024 average −0.467 and −0.457. Within each cohort, the difference in mean donor lean between Democratic-voting counties at least 30% Black and other Democratic-voting counties is 0.19 (95% CI 0.10 to 0.28) CFscore units for donors who first gave in 1980 to 1996 and 0.32 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.40) for 2018 to 2024, and every cohort's interval lies above zero (Figure 11). A county needs at least 25 donors from the cohort to count, so the county set changes between cohorts. 59 of the 374 Democratic-voting counties with a pool in every cohort are at least 30% Black, and in that fixed set the difference runs from 0.16 to 0.31.Counting the counties whose cohort pool leans right mixes the gap with the difference between cohorts in where the whole pool sits. Among Democratic-voting counties at least 30% Black, 86.8% have a right-leaning pool for donors who first gave in 1980 to 1996 and 22.5% for 2018 to 2024. The data table of the cohort figure gives all four cohorts.

Figure 11

Counties at least 30% Black sit to the right of other Democratic-voting counties in every donor cohort

Mean CFscore of reliable donors, or the difference between two groups of counties, by the election cycles in which donors first gave, Democratic-voting counties with a large Black share and other Democratic-voting counties, 2020 vote

Counties at least 30% Black
Other Democratic-voting counties
All reliable donors

Show data

Data for Counties at least 30% Black sit to the right of other Democratic-voting counties in every donor cohort
County set	Donor cohort	Group	Mean CFscore, or difference	95% interval, low	95% interval, high	Counties (donors for all)	Counties with a right-leaning pool	Counties with a right-leaning pool (%)
Every county with a pool	First gave 1980-96	Counties at least 30% Black	+0.395	+0.308	+0.482	68	59	86.8
Every county with a pool	First gave 1980-96	Other Democratic-voting counties	+0.205	+0.168	+0.242	317	n/a	n/a
Every county with a pool	First gave 1980-96	All reliable donors	+0.228	+0.225	+0.230	422,794	n/a	n/a
Every county with a pool	First gave 1998-2008	Counties at least 30% Black	+0.193	+0.116	+0.269	90	63	70.0
Every county with a pool	First gave 1998-2008	Other Democratic-voting counties	−0.176	−0.207	−0.145	363	n/a	n/a
Every county with a pool	First gave 1998-2008	All reliable donors	−0.081	−0.083	−0.080	1,562,979	n/a	n/a
Every county with a pool	First gave 2010-16	Counties at least 30% Black	−0.304	−0.366	−0.242	72	7	9.7
Every county with a pool	First gave 2010-16	Other Democratic-voting counties	−0.565	−0.587	−0.543	356	n/a	n/a
Every county with a pool	First gave 2010-16	All reliable donors	−0.467	−0.469	−0.465	1,249,312	n/a	n/a
Every county with a pool	First gave 2018-24	Counties at least 30% Black	−0.239	−0.315	−0.163	80	18	22.5
Every county with a pool	First gave 2018-24	Other Democratic-voting counties	−0.560	−0.580	−0.540	356	n/a	n/a
Every county with a pool	First gave 2018-24	All reliable donors	−0.457	−0.459	−0.455	1,482,136	n/a	n/a
Same counties in every cohort	First gave 1980-96	Counties at least 30% Black	+0.363	+0.272	+0.454	59	50	84.7
Same counties in every cohort	First gave 1980-96	Other Democratic-voting counties	+0.204	+0.167	+0.241	315	n/a	n/a
Same counties in every cohort	First gave 1980-96	All reliable donors	+0.228	+0.225	+0.230	422,794	n/a	n/a
Same counties in every cohort	First gave 1998-2008	Counties at least 30% Black	+0.135	+0.038	+0.231	59	38	64.4
Same counties in every cohort	First gave 1998-2008	Other Democratic-voting counties	−0.180	−0.212	−0.147	315	n/a	n/a
Same counties in every cohort	First gave 1998-2008	All reliable donors	−0.081	−0.083	−0.080	1,562,979	n/a	n/a
Same counties in every cohort	First gave 2010-16	Counties at least 30% Black	−0.311	−0.383	−0.238	59	6	10.2
Same counties in every cohort	First gave 2010-16	Other Democratic-voting counties	−0.557	−0.581	−0.534	315	n/a	n/a
Same counties in every cohort	First gave 2010-16	All reliable donors	−0.467	−0.469	−0.465	1,249,312	n/a	n/a
Same counties in every cohort	First gave 2018-24	Counties at least 30% Black	−0.305	−0.390	−0.220	59	10	16.9
Same counties in every cohort	First gave 2018-24	Other Democratic-voting counties	−0.562	−0.583	−0.542	315	n/a	n/a
Same counties in every cohort	First gave 2018-24	All reliable donors	−0.457	−0.459	−0.455	1,482,136	n/a	n/a
Gap between the two groups	First gave 1980-96	Difference in mean donor lean	+0.190	+0.095	+0.285	385	n/a	n/a
Gap between the two groups	First gave 1998-2008	Difference in mean donor lean	+0.368	+0.286	+0.451	453	n/a	n/a
Gap between the two groups	First gave 2010-16	Difference in mean donor lean	+0.261	+0.195	+0.327	428	n/a	n/a
Gap between the two groups	First gave 2018-24	Difference in mean donor lean	+0.320	+0.242	+0.399	436	n/a	n/a

In every cohort the counties at least 30% Black are to the right of the other Democratic-voting counties, and both groups are left of zero in the two cohorts that first gave in 2010 or later. Each county dot is the mean of the county donor lean for donors in that cohort, counting each county once, with a 95% interval from the spread of county means; the gray dot is the mean of all reliable donors in the cohort. A county needs at least 25 reliable donors in the cohort to count. Two more views keep the same counties in every cohort and plot the gap between the two groups.Note: A donor's CFscore is fixed, so a difference between cohorts is a difference in who gave, and a cohort is the set of donors whose first cycle falls in the window.Note: The second view keeps only the counties that have a pool in every cohort; the third plots the difference between the two groups of counties.Note: Intervals on county groups are 95% intervals from the spread of county means; the interval of the gray dot treats donors as independent draws.Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights

The level differs by cohort. In the oldest cohort both groups of counties average right of zero, and in the two cohorts that first gave in 2010 or later both average left of zero, with the counties at least 30% Black further right than the others. The newer cohorts are larger (1.5 million donors for 2018 to 2024, against 0.4 million for 1980 to 1996), and a cohort is defined by the first election cycle in which a donor appears, so a difference between cohorts is a difference in who gave. The gap also holds under a stricter rule for a reliable donor. With at least 15 distinct recipients it runs from 0.19 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.30) to 0.35 (95% CI 0.26 to 0.45) CFscore units across the four cohorts, and every interval lies above zero. The reliable rule keeps 19.3% of the donors who first gave in 1980 to 1996 and 9.6% of those who first gave in 2018 to 2024, so a cohort comparison inherits a rule that selects different shares of donors in different eras.

What these data cannot show

A county's donor lean describes the donors in the county and not any resident, and a pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among people, the problem known as ecological inference [2]. DIME does not record the race, income or vote of a donor, so the Black share results say that donor leans differ between counties with different Black shares and cannot say who the donors in those counties are. Studies that observe donors directly find that Black and Latino donors supply smaller shares of contributions than of the population [3], and a study that merges survey responses to donation records compares donors with non-donors [4]. Those studies are about individuals and neither tests nor contradicts the county pattern here.

The files do not say which candidates a donor gave to. A CFscore is an estimate from the recipients' positions, and the chapter cannot separate a donor who gives to Republican candidates from one who gives to moderate Democrats. Geography is the most recent record, so a donor who moved is counted where the last gift came from, and a county's pool spans giving from 1980 to 2024 while the vote is a single election. The reliable-donor rule keeps the donors who gave to many recipients, and the counts in Figure 10 change when it is relaxed. No threshold below 8 distinct recipients was tested. The divergence rule pivots on the sign of a mean at zero, which is not the middle of the county distribution, since the median county has a donor lean of +0.19.

The chapter also leaves out donor dollars, and it does not test any mechanism. Whether the donor lean of a county reflects who can give or who is asked cannot be separated with county means. How a county's stated ideology compares with its donors' is the subject of Chapter 14.6, Stated and funded ideology (planned), and how donors who live in counties their side lost behave is the subject of Chapter 15.4, Partisans in the other party's territory (planned). A county with a small pool has a noisy mean, and the intervals on individual counties treat donors as independent draws, which understates the uncertainty if donors in a county resemble each other.

Data sources

DIMEStanford DIME public version 4.0, reliable individual donors by most recent county, 1980-2024Years: 1979-2024 (23 election cycles) · Weights: none (administrative records); counties counted once or weighted by 2020 two-party votes · License: ODC-BY 1.0, as listed on the Stanford Libraries page (read through a search result, not the license text).
County election returnsCounty presidential returns, 2020 and 2024 (repaired 1868-2024 file)Years: President 1868-2024 (40 elections); House and Senate 1990-2024 · Weights: none (full counts); two-party votes as weights in the vote-weighted estimates · License: The Heideman file is CC BY 4.0 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.22976553), but the state records behind it keep their own terms, and the sites of Florida, Indiana, Colorado and Wisconsin restrict reuse.
County demographics panelCounty demographics panel, 2020 row (decennial population, ACS-based shares interpolated between 2020 and 2024)Years: 2000-2024 (election years, interpolated between census and survey anchors) · Weights: none (full counts and interpolated estimates) · License: US government source data, public domain. The interpolated panel is derived work.

All data sources

Methods

Sample. 2,839 counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 presidential return, from the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia. Alaska is dropped from the returns, and the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii (the DIME donor file has records in both states; the county match excluded Alaska by design and returned no Hawaii county). Two counties are recoded to their successors (Bedford city to Bedford County, Virginia; Shannon to Oglala Lakota County, South Dakota). Donors. Individual donors in the Stanford DIME public version 4.0 with a CFscore and a most recent county, 36,402,792 in all, of whom 4,717,221 are reliable (at least 8 distinct recipients, and a score not inherited from a recipient). Measures. The county donor lean is the mean CFscore of the county's reliable donors (positive is right, negative is left); the county vote is the Democratic share of the 2020 two-party presidential vote from the repaired county file. A county is divergent when it voted Democratic (share above 50%) and its donor lean is positive, or voted Republican and its donor lean is negative. Zero is the neutral point of the CFscore scale, and the definitions table repeats the count with the mean of all reliable donors and with the median county as the neutral point. A county clears both cut points when its Democratic share is 55% or more with a donor lean of 0.25 or more, or its share is below 45% with a lean below −0.25, assigned on unrounded values. Regions are the four Census Bureau regions. Weights and intervals. Shares and counts count each county once; correlations and regressions are reported twice, counting each county once and weighting by 2020 two-party votes; donors are not weighted. Correlations across counties use a county bootstrap (2,000 replicates, seed 12345); regression coefficients use standard errors clustered on state (46 states); the fitted line in the scatter of donor lean on the Democratic share counts each county once and has a band from state-clustered standard errors; group means of counties use a normal interval from the spread of county means; a donor mean uses its standard error and treats donors as independent. County counts and shares are full counts and carry no interval. Noise benchmark. The probability that a county's underlying donor mean has the other sign is the normal probability of a value beyond the county mean in units of its standard error, summed over counties; a second version shrinks each county mean toward a least-squares line in the Democratic share, with the variance of the true county means estimated by the method of moments, and gives the higher count. Pool floors and cohorts. The Black share comparison is repeated for counties with at least 100 and at least 500 reliable donors. Cohorts group donors by the election cycle of their first record (1980 to 1996, 1998 to 2008, 2010 to 2016, 2018 to 2024); the cohort gaps are repeated with donors of at least 15 distinct recipients, and the share of donors who are reliable is reported by cohort. Suppression. A county needs at least 25 reliable donors (and in a cohort view at least 25 donors who first gave in the cohort); counties are named only with at least 75; a band of a bar chart needs at least 10 counties on a side. Missing data. Ten counties lack a college share or median income (the eight Connecticut counties, whose 2020 boundaries changed, De Baca, New Mexico, and Jeff Davis, Texas); the Democratic-voting ones, all in Connecticut, drop out of the Black share correlations and regressions only. Vote-year check. 2024 returns from the repaired file, without four Missouri counties whose 2024 returns exclude Kansas City.

References

Bonica, Adam (2014). Mapping the Ideological Marketplace. American Journal of Political Science 58(2): 367-386. doi:10.1111/ajps.12062
Robinson, W. S. (1950). Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals. American Sociological Review 15(3): 351-357. doi:10.2307/2087176
Grumbach, Jacob M.; Sahn, Alexander (2020). Race and Representation in Campaign Finance. American Political Science Review 114(1): 206-221. doi:10.1017/S0003055419000637
Hill, Seth J.; Huber, Gregory A. (2017). Representativeness and Motivations of the Contemporary Donorate: Results from Merged Survey and Administrative Records. Political Behavior 39(1): 3-29. doi:10.1007/s11109-016-9343-y

How to cite

@misc{singh2026countieswheredonorsandvotersdiverge,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Counties where donors and voters diverge},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}

How donors and votes are measured

Donor lean tracks the vote in most counties

Democratic-voting exceptions are counties with large Black populations

Pool size moves the two sides in opposite directions

Republican-voting exceptions are the less Republican counties

The counts depend on the definition

The Black share gap appears in every donor cohort

What these data cannot show

Data sources

Methods

References

How to cite

Reading paths