Chapter 10.2

Distance from the national vote, 1868 to 2024

The share of two-party votes cast in counties at least 20 points from the national margin rose from 25.5% in 1976 to 56.5% in 2024, and every region is now above 50%, as only the South was in 1904.

Author: Vishal Singh
Affiliation: NYU Stern
Published: 30 September 2026

DraftFigures and numbers may change as the analysis is rebuilt.what is still being checked

County boundaries are not harmonized across elections. Fixed panels of counties and a state aggregate check the result, but a boundary-consistent rerun is not yet done.

A far county is a county whose two-party margin differs from the national margin of the same election by 20 or more points, this chapter's version of the landslide county. A third-party year is an election in which candidates outside the two major parties won at least 10% of all votes, or 1948, when a States' Rights ticket won Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina. Across the 40 presidential elections from 1868 to 2024 the share of two-party votes cast in far counties was lowest in 1976, at 25.5%. Outside the third-party years, 2016, 2020 and 2024 have the three highest shares, led by 2016 at 58.8%, and the next highest is 1872, at 50.8%. The chapter follows the share of votes cast in far counties from 1868 to 2024, compares the former Confederacy with the rest of the country, and tests whether the result comes from the number or size of counties.

The margin is measured against the nation and not against an even split, so that a national landslide does not read as a geographic one. A county's margin relative to the nation is its two-party margin minus the national two-party margin of the same election, in points, and the national margin is computed on the counties kept for that election. Alaska is left out, the District of Columbia enters in 1964, and the county handling is that of Chapter 10.1, Nationalization of the county vote. In 1972 the Republican nominee led the two-party vote by 23.6 points, and 59.0% of votes were cast in counties whose own margin was 20 or more points from an even split, against 31.6% in counties that far from the national margin.The returns for 1868 to 2020 are the Algara and Amlani county file, which Amlani and Algara [1] describe for 1872 to 2020, and those for 2024 come from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Chapter 10.1, Nationalization of the county vote measures how far counties moved between elections. This chapter measures how far they sit from the nation within one election.

A low in 1976, a plateau since 2016

Figure 1 plots the share for every election. It reached a low of 25.5% in 1976 and rose by 33.3 points over the 10 elections to 2016, when it was 58.8%. It was 56.6% in 2020 and 56.5% in 2024. The share at 40 or more points from the nation peaked in 2016 at 30.2% and was 25.2% in 2024, so the plateau does not hold at that cutoff.From 1928 to 1972 the elections that are not third-party years lie between 31.6% and 40.9%, so the 1976 low is below that range and the rise is measured from a trough, and 2024, the lowest of the last three shares, is 15.6 points above the top of the range. The 1868 value, 42.3%, is not on the same set of states as the values from 1872, because the 1868 returns lack Florida, Mississippi, Texas and Virginia. In 1904 the share was 48.1%, the highest value between 1876 and 1972 among the elections that are not third-party years. At 40 or more points the share was 3.7% in 1976, and its highest value before 2016 was 24.1%, in 1924.

Figure 1

The share of votes cast in counties far from the national margin rose from 25.5% in 1976 to 58.8% in 2016 and was 56.5% in 2024

Share of two-party votes, or of counties in the second view, at least 20 (upper line) and 40 (lower line) points from the national margin of the same election, percent, 1868 to 2024

Share of votes in counties far from the national margin (%)

Show data

Data for The share of votes cast in counties far from the national margin rose from 25.5% in 1976 to 58.8% in 2016 and was 56.5% in 2024
Counted by	Election	Distance from national margin	Share (%)	Counties	Note
Votes	1868	20+ points	42.3	1,696	n/a
Votes	1868	40+ points	17.9	1,696	n/a
Votes	1872	20+ points	50.8	2,160	n/a
Votes	1872	40+ points	20.0	2,160	n/a
Votes	1876	20+ points	38.1	2,230	n/a
Votes	1876	40+ points	12.4	2,230	n/a
Votes	1880	20+ points	38.1	2,291	n/a
Votes	1880	40+ points	12.2	2,291	n/a
Votes	1884	20+ points	30.8	2,351	n/a
Votes	1884	40+ points	9.4	2,351	n/a
Votes	1888	20+ points	29.9	2,429	n/a
Votes	1888	40+ points	9.1	2,429	n/a
Votes	1892	20+ points	33.4	2,658	Third-party year
Votes	1892	40+ points	13.8	2,658	Third-party year
Votes	1896	20+ points	41.1	2,715	n/a
Votes	1896	40+ points	16.9	2,715	n/a
Votes	1900	20+ points	32.9	2,711	n/a
Votes	1900	40+ points	11.7	2,711	n/a
Votes	1904	20+ points	48.1	2,723	n/a
Votes	1904	40+ points	17.7	2,723	n/a
Votes	1908	20+ points	32.9	2,856	n/a
Votes	1908	40+ points	10.0	2,856	n/a
Votes	1912	20+ points	49.9	2,943	Third-party year
Votes	1912	40+ points	18.9	2,943	Third-party year
Votes	1916	20+ points	29.8	3,022	n/a
Votes	1916	40+ points	8.9	3,022	n/a
Votes	1920	20+ points	44.0	3,054	n/a
Votes	1920	40+ points	12.2	3,054	n/a
Votes	1924	20+ points	61.3	3,083	Third-party year
Votes	1924	40+ points	24.1	3,083	Third-party year
Votes	1928	20+ points	39.0	3,097	n/a
Votes	1928	40+ points	12.1	3,097	n/a
Votes	1932	20+ points	40.9	3,096	n/a
Votes	1932	40+ points	11.2	3,096	n/a
Votes	1936	20+ points	39.2	3,095	n/a
Votes	1936	40+ points	10.2	3,095	n/a
Votes	1940	20+ points	33.3	3,094	n/a
Votes	1940	40+ points	11.6	3,094	n/a
Votes	1944	20+ points	33.9	3,095	n/a
Votes	1944	40+ points	10.7	3,095	n/a
Votes	1948	20+ points	28.6	3,096	Third-party year
Votes	1948	40+ points	8.3	3,096	Third-party year
Votes	1952	20+ points	36.8	3,098	n/a
Votes	1952	40+ points	6.3	3,098	n/a
Votes	1956	20+ points	32.5	3,100	n/a
Votes	1956	40+ points	4.9	3,100	n/a
Votes	1960	20+ points	32.8	3,105	n/a
Votes	1960	40+ points	4.2	3,105	n/a
Votes	1964	20+ points	32.5	3,107	n/a
Votes	1964	40+ points	5.5	3,107	n/a
Votes	1968	20+ points	37.2	3,111	Third-party year
Votes	1968	40+ points	8.9	3,111	Third-party year
Votes	1972	20+ points	31.6	3,110	n/a
Votes	1972	40+ points	3.9	3,110	n/a
Votes	1976	20+ points	25.5	3,113	n/a
Votes	1976	40+ points	3.7	3,113	n/a
Votes	1980	20+ points	33.8	3,112	n/a
Votes	1980	40+ points	4.3	3,112	n/a
Votes	1984	20+ points	35.9	3,114	n/a
Votes	1984	40+ points	5.9	3,114	n/a
Votes	1988	20+ points	35.8	3,114	n/a
Votes	1988	40+ points	5.6	3,114	n/a
Votes	1992	20+ points	38.6	3,115	Third-party year
Votes	1992	40+ points	6.9	3,115	Third-party year
Votes	1996	20+ points	37.9	3,114	Third-party year
Votes	1996	40+ points	7.9	3,114	Third-party year
Votes	2000	20+ points	45.3	3,114	n/a
Votes	2000	40+ points	13.0	3,114	n/a
Votes	2004	20+ points	46.9	3,114	n/a
Votes	2004	40+ points	14.7	3,114	n/a
Votes	2008	20+ points	47.3	3,114	n/a
Votes	2008	40+ points	18.1	3,114	n/a
Votes	2012	20+ points	50.5	3,114	n/a
Votes	2012	40+ points	20.5	3,114	n/a
Votes	2016	20+ points	58.8	3,113	n/a
Votes	2016	40+ points	30.2	3,113	n/a
Votes	2020	20+ points	56.6	3,113	n/a
Votes	2020	40+ points	29.6	3,113	n/a
Votes	2024	20+ points	56.5	3,113	n/a
Votes	2024	40+ points	25.2	3,113	n/a
Counties	1868	20+ points	55.9	1,696	n/a
Counties	1868	40+ points	30.8	1,696	n/a
Counties	1872	20+ points	61.2	2,160	n/a
Counties	1872	40+ points	36.3	2,160	n/a
Counties	1876	20+ points	56.4	2,230	n/a
Counties	1876	40+ points	30.4	2,230	n/a
Counties	1880	20+ points	56.4	2,291	n/a
Counties	1880	40+ points	29.7	2,291	n/a
Counties	1884	20+ points	49.3	2,351	n/a
Counties	1884	40+ points	23.2	2,351	n/a
Counties	1888	20+ points	50.1	2,429	n/a
Counties	1888	40+ points	23.6	2,429	n/a
Counties	1892	20+ points	59.0	2,658	Third-party year
Counties	1892	40+ points	39.6	2,658	Third-party year
Counties	1896	20+ points	56.6	2,715	n/a
Counties	1896	40+ points	32.3	2,715	n/a
Counties	1900	20+ points	52.1	2,711	n/a
Counties	1900	40+ points	27.4	2,711	n/a
Counties	1904	20+ points	67.2	2,723	n/a
Counties	1904	40+ points	39.9	2,723	n/a
Counties	1908	20+ points	52.0	2,856	n/a
Counties	1908	40+ points	29.9	2,856	n/a
Counties	1912	20+ points	61.1	2,943	Third-party year
Counties	1912	40+ points	35.3	2,943	Third-party year
Counties	1916	20+ points	51.2	3,022	n/a
Counties	1916	40+ points	31.0	3,022	n/a
Counties	1920	20+ points	60.3	3,054	n/a
Counties	1920	40+ points	36.2	3,054	n/a
Counties	1924	20+ points	71.9	3,083	Third-party year
Counties	1924	40+ points	46.2	3,083	Third-party year
Counties	1928	20+ points	50.2	3,097	n/a
Counties	1928	40+ points	22.2	3,097	n/a
Counties	1932	20+ points	54.3	3,096	n/a
Counties	1932	40+ points	33.8	3,096	n/a
Counties	1936	20+ points	56.5	3,095	n/a
Counties	1936	40+ points	30.7	3,095	n/a
Counties	1940	20+ points	62.3	3,094	n/a
Counties	1940	40+ points	36.1	3,094	n/a
Counties	1944	20+ points	62.8	3,095	n/a
Counties	1944	40+ points	34.8	3,095	n/a
Counties	1948	20+ points	54.3	3,096	Third-party year
Counties	1948	40+ points	30.7	3,096	Third-party year
Counties	1952	20+ points	56.8	3,098	n/a
Counties	1952	40+ points	22.9	3,098	n/a
Counties	1956	20+ points	46.2	3,100	n/a
Counties	1956	40+ points	18.3	3,100	n/a
Counties	1960	20+ points	47.7	3,105	n/a
Counties	1960	40+ points	14.6	3,105	n/a
Counties	1964	20+ points	40.2	3,107	n/a
Counties	1964	40+ points	13.7	3,107	n/a
Counties	1968	20+ points	49.8	3,111	Third-party year
Counties	1968	40+ points	16.0	3,111	Third-party year
Counties	1972	20+ points	41.2	3,110	n/a
Counties	1972	40+ points	7.3	3,110	n/a
Counties	1976	20+ points	37.3	3,113	n/a
Counties	1976	40+ points	9.8	3,113	n/a
Counties	1980	20+ points	44.0	3,112	n/a
Counties	1980	40+ points	12.5	3,112	n/a
Counties	1984	20+ points	37.7	3,114	n/a
Counties	1984	40+ points	7.3	3,114	n/a
Counties	1988	20+ points	35.8	3,114	n/a
Counties	1988	40+ points	5.4	3,114	n/a
Counties	1992	20+ points	38.9	3,115	Third-party year
Counties	1992	40+ points	9.1	3,115	Third-party year
Counties	1996	20+ points	42.1	3,114	Third-party year
Counties	1996	40+ points	11.9	3,114	Third-party year
Counties	2000	20+ points	53.4	3,114	n/a
Counties	2000	40+ points	19.6	3,114	n/a
Counties	2004	20+ points	56.9	3,114	n/a
Counties	2004	40+ points	22.3	3,114	n/a
Counties	2008	20+ points	62.7	3,114	n/a
Counties	2008	40+ points	31.9	3,114	n/a
Counties	2012	20+ points	67.9	3,114	n/a
Counties	2012	40+ points	36.7	3,114	n/a
Counties	2016	20+ points	80.1	3,113	n/a
Counties	2016	40+ points	56.1	3,113	n/a
Counties	2020	20+ points	80.2	3,113	n/a
Counties	2020	40+ points	56.6	3,113	n/a
Counties	2024	20+ points	79.1	3,113	n/a
Counties	2024	40+ points	54.0	3,113	n/a

The upper line falls to its lowest point in 1976, rises over 10 elections, and has its three highest values outside the third-party years in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Shaded columns mark third-party years, listed in the text.Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

The third-party years are 1892, 1912, 1924, 1948, 1968, 1992 and 1996. The two-party margin leaves the third-party votes out, so the shares for those years describe the two major parties' voters only, with one exception. In Alabama in 1948 the returns file records the States' Rights ticket, which held the Democratic line because Truman was not on the ballot, as the Democratic vote. The highest value in the series, 61.3%, belongs to 1924, a third-party year.

Counting each county once changes the date of the low. Counted by county, 79.1% of counties were far in 2024 and 37.3% in 1976, and the low falls in 1988, at 35.8%. In every election the share of counties is above the share of votes, which means that far counties are on average smaller than the others. The votes-and-counties toggle in Figure 1 shows both.

The rise did not come evenly. Figure 2 gives the change from one election to the next since 1980. In 3 elections the share rose by more than 7 points, 1980 by +8.3, 2000 by +7.4 and 2016 by +8.3. No other election after 1976 changed it by more than 3.2 points, and the largest fall between 1976 and 2016 was 0.7 points. The 2000 step starts from 1996, a third-party year whose share describes the two major parties' voters only. The 1976 low is itself a fall from the 31.6% of 1972. The step in 1980 came outside the former Confederacy. Inside it the share was 29.6% in 1976 and 29.5% in 1980, while in the rest of the country it rose from 24.3% to 35.2%. The step in 2016 coincides with the one late rise in the spread of county swings that Chapter 10.1, Nationalization of the county vote reports for 2012 to 2016.

Figure 2

The share rose by more than 7 points in 3 elections after 1976, in 1980, 2000 and 2016, and no other election moved it by more than 3.2

Change from the previous election in the share of two-party votes cast in counties at least 20 points from the national margin, percentage points, 1980 to 2024

Change from the previous election (percentage points)

Show data

Data for The share rose by more than 7 points in 3 elections after 1976, in 1980, 2000 and 2016, and no other election moved it by more than 3.2
Election	Change (points)	Share of votes in far counties (%)	Note
1980	+8.3	33.8	n/a
1984	+2.1	35.9	n/a
1988	−0.1	35.8	n/a
1992	+2.8	38.6	Third-party year
1996	−0.7	37.9	Third-party year
2000	+7.4	45.3	n/a
2004	+1.6	46.9	n/a
2008	+0.4	47.3	n/a
2012	+3.2	50.5	n/a
2016	+8.3	58.8	n/a
2020	−2.2	56.6	n/a
2024	−0.1	56.5	n/a

The bars for 1980, 2000 and 2016 account for most of the rise from 1976 to 2016. An asterisk marks a third-party year, and a dagger marks 2000, whose step starts from 1996, a third-party year whose share describes the two major parties' voters only. Each bar is the difference between the rounded shares of two consecutive elections, and bars above zero are rises.Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

The former Confederacy stood apart until 1944; now every region is far

The former Confederacy is the states that seceded and were readmitted after the Civil War.Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. Figure 3 gives the share of each region's own votes cast in far counties, measured against the national margin of each election. In every election from 1892 through 1944 except 1928, when it was 52.9%, at least 67.0% of the former Confederacy's votes were cast in far counties, and the share was 86.3% in 1904 and 94.1% in 1924. In 1904, 83.5% of the region's votes were cast in counties at least 20 points more Democratic than the nation. That is the Solid South, the one-party region whose politics Key described [2]. After 1944 the share fell, and from 1976 to 1996 it stayed between 29.5% and 35.2%. It reached 65.0% in 2016 and is 58.0% in 2024, below its 1904 level, and the far counties of 2024 lean the other way: 41.2% of the region's votes were cast in counties at least 20 points more Republican than the nation and 16.8% in counties that far on the Democratic side.

Figure 3

The former Confederacy fell from 86.3% of its votes in far counties in 1904 to 58.0% in 2024, and the rest of the country rose to 55.7%

Share of a region's two-party votes cast in counties at least 20 points from the national margin, percent, presidential elections 1868 to 2024

Share of the region's votes in far counties (%)

Show data

Data for The former Confederacy fell from 86.3% of its votes in far counties in 1904 to 58.0% in 2024, and the rest of the country rose to 55.7%
View	Election	Region	Share of region's votes in far counties (%)	Region's share of national votes (%)	Counties	Note
Two groups	1868	Confederacy	63.1	14.5	485	n/a
Five regions	1868	Confederacy	63.1	14.5	485	n/a
Five regions	1868	Other South	75.4	6.0	190	n/a
Five regions	1868	Northeast	38.6	38.6	214	n/a
Five regions	1868	Midwest	34.8	38.4	725	n/a
Five regions	1868	West	13.2	2.5	82	n/a
Two groups	1868	Rest of US	38.8	85.5	1,211	n/a
Two groups	1872	Confederacy	58.0	22.2	871	n/a
Five regions	1872	Confederacy	58.0	22.2	871	n/a
Five regions	1872	Other South	51.6	7.2	194	n/a
Five regions	1872	Northeast	37.2	33.3	214	n/a
Five regions	1872	Midwest	57.2	35.3	797	n/a
Five regions	1872	West	79.8	2.0	84	n/a
Two groups	1872	Rest of US	48.7	77.8	1,289	n/a
Two groups	1876	Confederacy	59.3	21.5	901	n/a
Five regions	1876	Confederacy	59.3	21.5	901	n/a
Five regions	1876	Other South	31.3	7.2	197	n/a
Five regions	1876	Northeast	29.4	31.8	214	n/a
Five regions	1876	Midwest	36.0	37.1	829	n/a
Five regions	1876	West	17.3	2.5	89	n/a
Two groups	1876	Rest of US	32.3	78.5	1,329	n/a
Two groups	1880	Confederacy	61.0	19.0	918	n/a
Five regions	1880	Confederacy	61.0	19.0	918	n/a
Five regions	1880	Other South	27.6	6.8	188	n/a
Five regions	1880	Northeast	28.5	32.8	215	n/a
Five regions	1880	Midwest	39.1	38.4	850	n/a
Five regions	1880	West	10.6	3.1	120	n/a
Two groups	1880	Rest of US	32.8	81.0	1,373	n/a
Two groups	1884	Confederacy	57.0	19.4	945	n/a
Five regions	1884	Confederacy	57.0	19.4	945	n/a
Five regions	1884	Other South	23.9	7.0	199	n/a
Five regions	1884	Northeast	18.8	30.2	215	n/a
Five regions	1884	Midwest	29.5	40.1	862	n/a
Five regions	1884	West	15.3	3.3	130	n/a
Two groups	1884	Rest of US	24.4	80.6	1,406	n/a
Two groups	1888	Confederacy	59.0	18.2	969	n/a
Five regions	1888	Confederacy	59.0	18.2	969	n/a
Five regions	1888	Other South	19.6	7.4	200	n/a
Five regions	1888	Northeast	19.2	30.2	212	n/a
Five regions	1888	Midwest	27.9	40.5	911	n/a
Five regions	1888	West	15.5	3.7	137	n/a
Two groups	1888	Rest of US	23.4	81.8	1,460	n/a
Two groups	1892	Confederacy	70.8	16.0	999	Third-party year
Five regions	1892	Confederacy	70.8	16.0	999	Third-party year
Five regions	1892	Other South	19.4	7.5	200	Third-party year
Five regions	1892	Northeast	26.0	31.6	215	Third-party year
Five regions	1892	Midwest	27.5	40.8	1,012	Third-party year
Five regions	1892	West	29.6	4.1	232	Third-party year
Two groups	1892	Rest of US	26.3	84.0	1,659	Third-party year
Two groups	1896	Confederacy	67.0	15.7	1,006	n/a
Five regions	1896	Confederacy	67.0	15.7	1,006	n/a
Five regions	1896	Other South	22.8	7.7	201	n/a
Five regions	1896	Northeast	47.6	28.0	213	n/a
Five regions	1896	Midwest	28.2	42.3	1,018	n/a
Five regions	1896	West	56.8	6.3	277	n/a
Two groups	1896	Rest of US	36.3	84.3	1,709	n/a
Two groups	1900	Confederacy	69.0	13.1	994	n/a
Five regions	1900	Confederacy	69.0	13.1	994	n/a
Five regions	1900	Other South	22.0	8.0	201	n/a
Five regions	1900	Northeast	31.1	28.7	216	n/a
Five regions	1900	Midwest	25.7	43.3	1,018	n/a
Five regions	1900	West	29.9	6.9	282	n/a
Two groups	1900	Rest of US	27.5	86.9	1,717	n/a
Two groups	1904	Confederacy	86.3	10.2	1,000	n/a
Five regions	1904	Confederacy	86.3	10.2	1,000	n/a
Five regions	1904	Other South	61.7	7.9	201	n/a
Five regions	1904	Northeast	37.5	31.5	216	n/a
Five regions	1904	Midwest	44.5	42.5	1,020	n/a
Five regions	1904	West	46.8	7.8	286	n/a
Two groups	1904	Rest of US	43.7	89.8	1,723	n/a
Two groups	1908	Confederacy	75.8	10.8	1,045	n/a
Five regions	1908	Confederacy	75.8	10.8	1,045	n/a
Five regions	1908	Other South	29.5	8.8	276	n/a
Five regions	1908	Northeast	33.5	29.1	216	n/a
Five regions	1908	Midwest	23.5	43.0	1,027	n/a
Five regions	1908	West	27.4	8.3	292	n/a
Two groups	1908	Rest of US	27.7	89.2	1,811	n/a
Two groups	1912	Confederacy	81.4	12.5	1,078	Third-party year
Five regions	1912	Confederacy	81.4	12.5	1,078	Third-party year
Five regions	1912	Other South	47.3	10.1	279	Third-party year
Five regions	1912	Northeast	51.2	28.3	216	Third-party year
Five regions	1912	Midwest	36.6	39.8	1,043	Third-party year
Five regions	1912	West	63.9	9.3	327	Third-party year
Two groups	1912	Rest of US	45.4	87.5	1,865	Third-party year
Two groups	1916	Confederacy	79.2	10.1	1,100	n/a
Five regions	1916	Confederacy	79.2	10.1	1,100	n/a
Five regions	1916	Other South	23.6	8.2	279	n/a
Five regions	1916	Northeast	31.5	24.9	217	n/a
Five regions	1916	Midwest	20.7	43.1	1,049	n/a
Five regions	1916	West	22.4	13.7	377	n/a
Two groups	1916	Rest of US	24.2	89.9	1,922	n/a
Two groups	1920	Confederacy	84.4	10.0	1,105	n/a
Five regions	1920	Confederacy	84.4	10.0	1,105	n/a
Five regions	1920	Other South	42.1	10.2	279	n/a
Five regions	1920	Northeast	28.8	28.1	217	n/a
Five regions	1920	Midwest	46.8	42.5	1,051	n/a
Five regions	1920	West	35.4	9.2	402	n/a
Two groups	1920	Rest of US	39.4	90.0	1,949	n/a
Two groups	1924	Confederacy	94.1	9.9	1,126	Third-party year
Five regions	1924	Confederacy	94.1	9.9	1,126	Third-party year
Five regions	1924	Other South	77.0	9.6	279	Third-party year
Five regions	1924	Northeast	44.6	31.0	217	Third-party year
Five regions	1924	Midwest	61.4	40.6	1,056	Third-party year
Five regions	1924	West	65.4	8.8	405	Third-party year
Two groups	1924	Rest of US	57.7	90.1	1,957	Third-party year
Two groups	1928	Confederacy	52.9	9.1	1,134	n/a
Five regions	1928	Confederacy	52.9	9.1	1,134	n/a
Five regions	1928	Other South	24.2	8.4	279	n/a
Five regions	1928	Northeast	46.7	32.4	217	n/a
Five regions	1928	Midwest	33.1	39.7	1,057	n/a
Five regions	1928	West	37.9	10.4	410	n/a
Two groups	1928	Rest of US	37.6	90.9	1,963	n/a
Two groups	1932	Confederacy	81.4	9.7	1,133	n/a
Five regions	1932	Confederacy	81.4	9.7	1,133	n/a
Five regions	1932	Other South	30.9	8.4	279	n/a
Five regions	1932	Northeast	69.3	30.4	217	n/a
Five regions	1932	Midwest	20.2	39.9	1,057	n/a
Five regions	1932	West	11.7	11.6	410	n/a
Two groups	1932	Rest of US	36.6	90.3	1,963	n/a
Two groups	1936	Confederacy	80.6	9.4	1,133	n/a
Five regions	1936	Confederacy	80.6	9.4	1,133	n/a
Five regions	1936	Other South	20.5	8.0	279	n/a
Five regions	1936	Northeast	51.3	32.3	217	n/a
Five regions	1936	Midwest	27.1	38.7	1,056	n/a
Five regions	1936	West	25.1	11.7	410	n/a
Two groups	1936	Rest of US	34.9	90.6	1,962	n/a
Two groups	1940	Confederacy	85.0	9.6	1,132	n/a
Five regions	1940	Confederacy	85.0	9.6	1,132	n/a
Five regions	1940	Other South	24.9	7.0	279	n/a
Five regions	1940	Northeast	29.8	31.9	217	n/a
Five regions	1940	Midwest	29.8	38.8	1,056	n/a
Five regions	1940	West	18.0	12.7	410	n/a
Two groups	1940	Rest of US	27.8	90.4	1,962	n/a
Two groups	1944	Confederacy	80.6	9.7	1,133	n/a
Five regions	1944	Confederacy	80.6	9.7	1,133	n/a
Five regions	1944	Other South	27.8	7.0	279	n/a
Five regions	1944	Northeast	28.4	31.6	217	n/a
Five regions	1944	Midwest	34.5	38.1	1,056	n/a
Five regions	1944	West	15.0	13.6	410	n/a
Two groups	1944	Rest of US	28.9	90.3	1,962	n/a
Two groups	1948	Confederacy	62.8	9.0	1,134	Third-party year
Five regions	1948	Confederacy	62.8	9.0	1,134	Third-party year
Five regions	1948	Other South	34.7	7.0	279	Third-party year
Five regions	1948	Northeast	31.3	31.9	217	Third-party year
Five regions	1948	Midwest	23.3	37.2	1,056	Third-party year
Five regions	1948	West	12.7	14.9	410	Third-party year
Two groups	1948	Rest of US	25.2	91.0	1,962	Third-party year
Two groups	1952	Confederacy	44.9	13.8	1,135	n/a
Five regions	1952	Confederacy	44.9	13.8	1,135	n/a
Five regions	1952	Other South	29.8	6.4	279	n/a
Five regions	1952	Northeast	45.9	30.1	217	n/a
Five regions	1952	Midwest	36.7	34.7	1,056	n/a
Five regions	1952	West	14.3	15.0	411	n/a
Two groups	1952	Rest of US	35.5	86.2	1,963	n/a
Two groups	1956	Confederacy	42.2	13.5	1,138	n/a
Five regions	1956	Confederacy	42.2	13.5	1,138	n/a
Five regions	1956	Other South	27.7	6.2	279	n/a
Five regions	1956	Northeast	49.0	30.4	217	n/a
Five regions	1956	Midwest	26.0	34.2	1,055	n/a
Five regions	1956	West	8.1	15.6	411	n/a
Two groups	1956	Rest of US	31.0	86.5	1,962	n/a
Two groups	1960	Confederacy	42.3	14.5	1,139	n/a
Five regions	1960	Confederacy	42.3	14.5	1,139	n/a
Five regions	1960	Other South	36.0	6.0	279	n/a
Five regions	1960	Northeast	38.2	29.3	217	n/a
Five regions	1960	Midwest	35.2	33.6	1,055	n/a
Five regions	1960	West	9.2	16.6	415	n/a
Two groups	1960	Rest of US	31.2	85.5	1,966	n/a
Two groups	1964	Confederacy	50.3	17.5	1,139	n/a
Five regions	1964	Confederacy	50.3	17.5	1,139	n/a
Five regions	1964	Other South	35.3	6.1	280	n/a
Five regions	1964	Northeast	41.2	27.8	217	n/a
Five regions	1964	Midwest	22.9	31.5	1,056	n/a
Five regions	1964	West	17.1	17.2	415	n/a
Two groups	1964	Rest of US	28.8	82.5	1,968	n/a
Two groups	1968	Confederacy	45.8	16.1	1,143	Third-party year
Five regions	1968	Confederacy	45.8	16.1	1,143	Third-party year
Five regions	1968	Other South	39.9	5.9	280	Third-party year
Five regions	1968	Northeast	42.4	27.9	217	Third-party year
Five regions	1968	Midwest	34.1	31.8	1,056	Third-party year
Five regions	1968	West	26.0	18.3	415	Third-party year
Two groups	1968	Rest of US	35.5	83.9	1,968	Third-party year
Two groups	1972	Confederacy	46.5	19.9	1,142	n/a
Five regions	1972	Confederacy	46.5	19.9	1,142	n/a
Five regions	1972	Other South	35.9	6.0	280	n/a
Five regions	1972	Northeast	32.4	25.9	217	n/a
Five regions	1972	Midwest	27.2	30.0	1,056	n/a
Five regions	1972	West	19.9	18.2	415	n/a
Two groups	1972	Rest of US	27.9	80.1	1,968	n/a
Two groups	1976	Confederacy	29.6	22.7	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1976	Confederacy	29.6	22.7	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1976	Other South	31.2	6.0	280	n/a
Five regions	1976	Northeast	25.3	24.0	217	n/a
Five regions	1976	Midwest	25.4	29.6	1,056	n/a
Five regions	1976	West	18.8	17.6	415	n/a
Two groups	1976	Rest of US	24.3	77.3	1,968	n/a
Two groups	1980	Confederacy	29.5	25.0	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1980	Confederacy	29.5	25.0	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1980	Other South	40.9	6.1	280	n/a
Five regions	1980	Northeast	26.3	21.7	217	n/a
Five regions	1980	Midwest	37.5	29.2	1,055	n/a
Five regions	1980	West	40.1	18.0	415	n/a
Two groups	1980	Rest of US	35.2	75.0	1,967	n/a
Two groups	1984	Confederacy	32.6	25.3	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1984	Confederacy	32.6	25.3	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1984	Other South	40.6	6.0	280	n/a
Five regions	1984	Northeast	35.3	22.2	217	n/a
Five regions	1984	Midwest	41.6	27.5	1,055	n/a
Five regions	1984	West	31.4	19.0	417	n/a
Two groups	1984	Rest of US	37.1	74.7	1,969	n/a
Two groups	1988	Confederacy	35.2	25.5	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1988	Confederacy	35.2	25.5	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1988	Other South	42.7	5.8	280	n/a
Five regions	1988	Northeast	34.1	21.7	217	n/a
Five regions	1988	Midwest	41.3	27.0	1,055	n/a
Five regions	1988	West	28.8	19.9	417	n/a
Two groups	1988	Rest of US	36.0	74.5	1,969	n/a
Two groups	1992	Confederacy	35.2	27.5	1,145	Third-party year
Five regions	1992	Confederacy	35.2	27.5	1,145	Third-party year
Five regions	1992	Other South	42.1	6.0	280	Third-party year
Five regions	1992	Northeast	34.0	20.8	217	Third-party year
Five regions	1992	Midwest	41.3	26.2	1,055	Third-party year
Five regions	1992	West	43.7	19.5	418	Third-party year
Two groups	1992	Rest of US	39.9	72.5	1,970	Third-party year
Two groups	1996	Confederacy	35.2	28.1	1,144	Third-party year
Five regions	1996	Confederacy	35.2	28.1	1,144	Third-party year
Five regions	1996	Other South	39.3	5.7	280	Third-party year
Five regions	1996	Northeast	37.1	20.2	217	Third-party year
Five regions	1996	Midwest	37.9	25.7	1,055	Third-party year
Five regions	1996	West	42.1	20.3	418	Third-party year
Two groups	1996	Rest of US	39.0	71.9	1,970	Third-party year
Two groups	2000	Confederacy	43.8	28.4	1,144	n/a
Five regions	2000	Confederacy	43.8	28.4	1,144	n/a
Five regions	2000	Other South	54.5	5.8	280	n/a
Five regions	2000	Northeast	43.3	19.8	217	n/a
Five regions	2000	Midwest	43.2	25.7	1,055	n/a
Five regions	2000	West	49.3	20.3	418	n/a
Two groups	2000	Rest of US	45.9	71.6	1,970	n/a
Two groups	2004	Confederacy	49.2	28.9	1,143	n/a
Five regions	2004	Confederacy	49.2	28.9	1,143	n/a
Five regions	2004	Other South	60.2	5.8	280	n/a
Five regions	2004	Northeast	39.7	19.2	217	n/a
Five regions	2004	Midwest	44.2	25.4	1,055	n/a
Five regions	2004	West	49.8	20.8	419	n/a
Two groups	2004	Rest of US	45.9	71.1	1,971	n/a
Two groups	2008	Confederacy	52.3	30.2	1,143	n/a
Five regions	2008	Confederacy	52.3	30.2	1,143	n/a
Five regions	2008	Other South	68.3	5.6	280	n/a
Five regions	2008	Northeast	37.3	18.7	217	n/a
Five regions	2008	Midwest	43.2	24.5	1,055	n/a
Five regions	2008	West	48.4	21.0	419	n/a
Two groups	2008	Rest of US	45.2	69.8	1,971	n/a
Two groups	2012	Confederacy	53.9	30.9	1,143	n/a
Five regions	2012	Confederacy	53.9	30.9	1,143	n/a
Five regions	2012	Other South	71.9	5.6	280	n/a
Five regions	2012	Northeast	43.0	18.2	217	n/a
Five regions	2012	Midwest	46.9	24.2	1,055	n/a
Five regions	2012	West	50.5	21.1	419	n/a
Two groups	2012	Rest of US	49.0	69.1	1,971	n/a
Two groups	2016	Confederacy	65.0	31.8	1,142	n/a
Five regions	2016	Confederacy	65.0	31.8	1,142	n/a
Five regions	2016	Other South	75.9	5.7	280	n/a
Five regions	2016	Northeast	49.8	18.1	217	n/a
Five regions	2016	Midwest	60.5	23.3	1,055	n/a
Five regions	2016	West	50.6	21.1	419	n/a
Two groups	2016	Rest of US	55.9	68.2	1,971	n/a
Two groups	2020	Confederacy	59.6	31.7	1,142	n/a
Five regions	2020	Confederacy	59.6	31.7	1,142	n/a
Five regions	2020	Other South	74.1	5.3	280	n/a
Five regions	2020	Northeast	50.5	17.8	217	n/a
Five regions	2020	Midwest	58.4	22.1	1,055	n/a
Five regions	2020	West	51.3	23.1	419	n/a
Two groups	2020	Rest of US	55.1	68.3	1,971	n/a
Two groups	2024	Confederacy	58.0	32.5	1,142	n/a
Five regions	2024	Confederacy	58.0	32.5	1,142	n/a
Five regions	2024	Other South	70.1	5.3	280	n/a
Five regions	2024	Northeast	52.5	17.7	217	n/a
Five regions	2024	Midwest	56.5	22.2	1,056	n/a
Five regions	2024	West	54.1	22.2	418	n/a
Two groups	2024	Rest of US	55.7	67.5	1,971	n/a

The Confederacy line sits far above the other line from 1892 to 1944, apart from 1928, and stays between 29.5% and 35.2% from 1976 to 1996; the line for the rest of the country rises after 1976 and in 2016 passes 50%, the first election outside the third-party years to do so. Far is measured against the national margin of each election, not the region's own. Shaded columns mark third-party years, listed in the text.Note: A region-year cell needs at least 30 counties; every cell meets that floor, so none is dropped.Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

The rest of the country never exceeded 49.0% in an election before 2016 that is not a third-party year, was 43.7% in 1904, fell to 24.3% in 1976 and is 55.7% in 2024. The five-region view shows how far the change reaches. In 2024 the share runs from 52.5% in the Northeast to 70.1% in Other South, the rest of the Census South. In 1976 it ran from 18.8% to 31.2%. In 1904 it was above 50% only in the South, and the Northeast, Midwest and West lay between 37.5% and 46.8%.

The Solid South supplied a smaller part of the far-county vote than its extreme share suggests. The former Confederacy cast 10.2% of the nation's votes in 1904 and 32.5% in 2024, so its far counties held 18.4% of the far-county votes in 1904 and hold 33.4% in 2024. Most of the national share in 1904, 48.1%, therefore came from counties elsewhere, in a year when the Republican lead in the national margin was 19.9 points.

Far counties are mostly Republican by count and even by votes

Figure 4 colors each county by its margin minus the national margin for seven elections, with the classes broken at the far and very far cutoffs. In 2024, 79.1% of counties fall in the two outer classes on either side, against 37.3% in 1976. In each of the five regions more than 50% of counties are far in 2024, from 53.9% in the Northeast to 91.8% in Other South. In 1976 only the former Confederacy exceeded 50% of its counties, at 50.7%, and the highest of the other four regions was 45.7%.

Figure 4

In 2024, 79.1% of counties were 20 or more points from the national margin, against 37.3% in 1976

County two-party margin minus the national two-party margin of the same election, percentage points (positive is more Democratic than the nation), seven presidential elections from 1876 to 2024

Loading county values

County margin minus national margin, points (negative is more Republican, positive is more Democratic)

More RepublicanMore Democratic

Values outside −60 to +60 take the end colors.

No data (3,143 counties)

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Hover or tap a county for its value, or search by name. Zoom with the buttons on the map, then drag to move it.

Alaska draws as no data. Its election returns are reported by election district, and the district codes cannot be matched to boroughs and census areas.

Pale counties voted close to the nation, and the two darkest shades of each color are 20 points or more from it. Blue counties were more Democratic than the nation and red counties more Republican, whatever the winner of the county. The map opens on 2024, when 2,234 of the 2,463 far counties are red and 229 are blue; move the slider to see 1976, when most counties in the Northeast, Midwest and West are within 20 points of the national margin, and 1904 and 1940, when most counties in the former Confederacy were far on the Democratic side. Counties differ in size: the average far Democratic county cast 9.8 times as many votes as the average far Republican county, so area overstates the votes of far Republican counties. The tooltip also gives the county's own margin.Note: Counties are drawn on 2020 boundaries and joined on FIPS code. A county with no return, or whose code is absent from the 2020 map, draws as no data: not counting Alaska, 885 of the 3,113 counties on the map have no return in 1876 and 393 have none in 1904, and no other frame has more than 26, after retired county codes are mapped to their 2020 successors. None of the seven elections is a third-party year. The classes break at minus and plus 40, 20 and 5 points.Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

By count the far counties of 2024 lean Republican, and by votes they divide evenly between the parties (Figure 5). Of the 2,463 counties at least 20 points from the national margin, 2,234 were more Republican than the nation and 229 more Democratic. Far Democratic counties cast 28.2% of the two-party votes and far Republican counties 28.2%, because the average far Democratic county cast 9.8 times as many votes as the average far Republican county. In 1976, 704 far counties were more Democratic than the nation and 456 more Republican, and the two shares of votes were 13.2% and 12.3%. The 1904 and 1940 maps show the former Confederacy on the Democratic side of the nation, with 82.5% of its votes cast in counties at least 20 points more Democratic than the nation in 1940, against 83.5% in 1904.

Figure 5

In 2024, 229 far Democratic and 2,234 far Republican counties each cast 28.2% of two-party votes

Counties at least 20 points more Democratic or more Republican than the national margin: share of two-party votes in the first view and count of counties in the second, 1976 and 2024

Share of two-party votes in far counties (%)

Far Democratic
Far Republican

Show data

Data for In 2024, 229 far Democratic and 2,234 far Republican counties each cast 28.2% of two-party votes
Election	Side of the national margin	Far counties	Share of all counties (%)	Share of votes (%)	Counties in the election
1876	Far Democratic	724	32.5	18.1	2,230
1876	Far Republican	533	23.9	20.0	2,230
1904	Far Democratic	1,117	41.0	22.0	2,723
1904	Far Republican	714	26.2	26.1	2,723
1940	Far Democratic	1,153	37.3	12.7	3,094
1940	Far Republican	774	25.0	20.6	3,094
1976	Far Democratic	704	22.6	13.2	3,113
1976	Far Republican	456	14.6	12.3	3,113
2000	Far Democratic	192	6.2	22.8	3,114
2000	Far Republican	1,472	47.3	22.5	3,114
2016	Far Democratic	224	7.2	27.8	3,113
2016	Far Republican	2,270	72.9	31.0	3,113
2024	Far Democratic	229	7.4	28.2	3,113
2024	Far Republican	2,234	71.8	28.2	3,113

In 2024 far Democratic and far Republican counties cast the same share of votes although far Republican counties are the larger group by count, because the average far Democratic county cast 9.8 times as many votes as the average far Republican county. In 1976 far Democratic counties cast 13.2% and far Republican counties 12.3%. A county is far when its margin differs from the national margin by at least 20 points.Note: Show data lists all seven map elections from 1876 to 2024. None of them is a third-party year.Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

Fewer votes fall near the national margin, but not steadily

Figure 6 shows the distribution of county margins around the national margin for the same seven elections, with one ridge for each election and the share of votes within 5 points of the national margin beside each year. In 1976, 22.9% of votes were cast in counties within 5 points of the national margin, and in 2024 14.7% were. The 1976 share is the highest of the seven, 2016 is the lowest at 9.4%, and 1904 (13.5%) is below 2024, so the comparison of 1976 with 2024 is between two elections and not a trend. Between 1976 and 2024 the share within 5 points fell and the share beyond 40 points rose.

Figure 6

The share of votes cast within 5 points of the national margin was 22.9% in 1976, 9.4% in 2016 and 14.7% in 2024

Share of two-party votes, or of counties in the second view, by bin of the county margin minus the national margin, percentage points, seven presidential elections from 1876 to 2024

Show data

Data for The share of votes cast within 5 points of the national margin was 22.9% in 1976, 9.4% in 2016 and 14.7% in 2024
Election	Bin center (points)	Share of votes (%)	Share of counties (%)
1876	−97.5	0.00	0.09
1876	−92.5	0.02	0.13
1876	−87.5	0.03	0.27
1876	−82.5	0.11	0.27
1876	−77.5	0.08	0.36
1876	−72.5	0.15	0.67
1876	−67.5	0.21	0.63
1876	−62.5	0.31	1.03
1876	−57.5	0.68	1.21
1876	−52.5	0.90	1.61
1876	−47.5	1.07	1.84
1876	−42.5	1.50	2.06
1876	−37.5	1.85	2.15
1876	−32.5	3.23	3.18
1876	−27.5	3.46	3.54
1876	−22.5	6.40	4.71
1876	−17.5	6.52	4.08
1876	−12.5	9.54	6.77
1876	−7.5	8.26	5.34
1876	−2.5	9.47	6.19
1876	+2.5	8.61	5.70
1876	+7.5	7.92	5.92
1876	+12.5	5.22	5.47
1876	+17.5	6.33	4.17
1876	+22.5	2.81	3.72
1876	+27.5	5.22	3.77
1876	+32.5	1.17	2.33
1876	+37.5	1.59	2.56
1876	+42.5	1.28	2.42
1876	+47.5	1.09	2.15
1876	+52.5	1.03	2.29
1876	+57.5	0.77	1.79
1876	+62.5	0.49	1.61
1876	+67.5	0.56	1.61
1876	+72.5	0.48	1.52
1876	+77.5	0.41	1.39
1876	+82.5	0.32	1.12
1876	+87.5	0.25	0.99
1876	+92.5	0.24	1.17
1876	+97.5	0.38	2.02
1904	−97.5	0.00	0.00
1904	−92.5	0.00	0.00
1904	−87.5	0.00	0.00
1904	−82.5	0.00	0.00
1904	−77.5	0.00	0.00
1904	−72.5	0.01	0.04
1904	−67.5	0.05	0.26
1904	−62.5	0.29	0.77
1904	−57.5	0.33	0.92
1904	−52.5	1.11	1.65
1904	−47.5	4.01	2.90
1904	−42.5	3.39	2.79
1904	−37.5	2.91	3.56
1904	−32.5	3.80	4.00
1904	−27.5	3.74	4.26
1904	−22.5	6.49	5.07
1904	−17.5	7.87	4.59
1904	−12.5	8.31	4.85
1904	−7.5	7.00	4.41
1904	−2.5	5.60	3.78
1904	+2.5	7.91	4.15
1904	+7.5	4.86	3.97
1904	+12.5	6.48	4.33
1904	+17.5	3.87	2.68
1904	+22.5	5.27	3.45
1904	+27.5	5.46	2.83
1904	+32.5	1.56	2.02
1904	+37.5	1.17	2.13
1904	+42.5	0.93	2.02
1904	+47.5	0.62	1.62
1904	+52.5	0.68	2.02
1904	+57.5	0.60	1.58
1904	+62.5	0.48	1.36
1904	+67.5	0.52	2.13
1904	+72.5	0.58	1.51
1904	+77.5	0.59	2.17
1904	+82.5	0.45	1.40
1904	+87.5	0.34	1.58
1904	+92.5	0.59	2.31
1904	+97.5	0.42	2.13
1940	−97.5	0.00	0.00
1940	−92.5	0.01	0.03
1940	−87.5	0.01	0.03
1940	−82.5	0.02	0.06
1940	−77.5	0.02	0.13
1940	−72.5	0.08	0.23
1940	−67.5	0.12	0.29
1940	−62.5	0.14	0.32
1940	−57.5	0.31	0.52
1940	−52.5	0.74	1.13
1940	−47.5	1.38	1.97
1940	−42.5	1.79	2.59
1940	−37.5	3.11	3.56
1940	−32.5	2.97	4.30
1940	−27.5	4.25	4.56
1940	−22.5	5.62	5.30
1940	−17.5	6.37	6.24
1940	−12.5	7.84	5.24
1940	−7.5	6.11	5.79
1940	−2.5	5.74	5.95
1940	+2.5	12.08	4.27
1940	+7.5	12.19	3.56
1940	+12.5	10.70	3.68
1940	+17.5	5.70	3.01
1940	+22.5	2.84	2.71
1940	+27.5	1.54	2.29
1940	+32.5	0.69	1.78
1940	+37.5	0.60	1.65
1940	+42.5	0.84	2.07
1940	+47.5	0.56	1.87
1940	+52.5	0.70	1.68
1940	+57.5	0.74	2.59
1940	+62.5	1.01	3.01
1940	+67.5	0.90	3.30
1940	+72.5	0.69	3.30
1940	+77.5	0.42	2.07
1940	+82.5	0.49	3.56
1940	+87.5	0.63	5.11
1940	+92.5	0.04	0.29
1940	+97.5	0.00	0.00
1976	−97.5	0.00	0.00
1976	−92.5	0.00	0.00
1976	−87.5	0.00	0.00
1976	−82.5	0.00	0.00
1976	−77.5	0.00	0.00
1976	−72.5	0.00	0.00
1976	−67.5	0.00	0.00
1976	−62.5	0.00	0.03
1976	−57.5	0.00	0.13
1976	−52.5	0.15	0.26
1976	−47.5	0.19	0.35
1976	−42.5	0.47	0.87
1976	−37.5	1.05	1.38
1976	−32.5	1.67	2.51
1976	−27.5	4.23	3.92
1976	−22.5	4.56	5.20
1976	−17.5	7.69	6.46
1976	−12.5	10.28	8.96
1976	−7.5	10.47	9.16
1976	−2.5	12.84	9.83
1976	+2.5	10.07	9.03
1976	+7.5	9.22	7.55
1976	+12.5	8.81	6.26
1976	+17.5	5.09	5.49
1976	+22.5	4.55	5.08
1976	+27.5	1.72	4.02
1976	+32.5	2.27	2.83
1976	+37.5	1.77	2.54
1976	+42.5	0.95	2.12
1976	+47.5	1.10	2.15
1976	+52.5	0.31	1.67
1976	+57.5	0.16	1.03
1976	+62.5	0.32	0.74
1976	+67.5	0.03	0.26
1976	+72.5	0.03	0.19
1976	+77.5	0.00	0.00
1976	+82.5	0.00	0.00
1976	+87.5	0.00	0.00
1976	+92.5	0.00	0.00
1976	+97.5	0.00	0.00
2000	−97.5	0.00	0.00
2000	−92.5	0.00	0.00
2000	−87.5	0.00	0.03
2000	−82.5	0.02	0.26
2000	−77.5	0.01	0.26
2000	−72.5	0.18	0.64
2000	−67.5	0.25	1.48
2000	−62.5	0.25	1.77
2000	−57.5	0.58	2.57
2000	−52.5	0.95	3.47
2000	−47.5	1.32	3.37
2000	−42.5	1.75	4.40
2000	−37.5	3.19	5.46
2000	−32.5	3.52	7.06
2000	−27.5	4.95	8.03
2000	−22.5	5.50	8.48
2000	−17.5	6.10	8.54
2000	−12.5	7.99	8.35
2000	−7.5	8.00	8.22
2000	−2.5	8.83	6.52
2000	+2.5	7.86	5.52
2000	+7.5	6.60	4.34
2000	+12.5	4.54	2.70
2000	+17.5	4.80	2.38
2000	+22.5	4.33	1.64
2000	+27.5	5.06	1.51
2000	+32.5	4.08	1.09
2000	+37.5	1.65	0.55
2000	+42.5	2.83	0.32
2000	+47.5	0.89	0.29
2000	+52.5	0.92	0.19
2000	+57.5	0.13	0.10
2000	+62.5	1.12	0.26
2000	+67.5	1.12	0.06
2000	+72.5	0.19	0.10
2000	+77.5	0.30	0.03
2000	+82.5	0.19	0.03
2000	+87.5	0.00	0.00
2000	+92.5	0.00	0.00
2000	+97.5	0.00	0.00
2016	−97.5	0.00	0.03
2016	−92.5	0.00	0.29
2016	−87.5	0.03	0.58
2016	−82.5	0.23	2.18
2016	−77.5	0.36	3.28
2016	−72.5	0.75	4.47
2016	−67.5	1.14	5.56
2016	−62.5	1.61	7.07
2016	−57.5	2.81	8.67
2016	−52.5	2.86	7.55
2016	−47.5	2.65	6.68
2016	−42.5	3.12	6.81
2016	−37.5	3.43	5.75
2016	−32.5	3.53	4.69
2016	−27.5	4.20	5.14
2016	−22.5	4.29	4.18
2016	−17.5	4.19	4.24
2016	−12.5	4.44	2.89
2016	−7.5	3.94	2.83
2016	−2.5	4.56	2.28
2016	+2.5	4.83	2.12
2016	+7.5	7.27	2.41
2016	+12.5	5.92	1.54
2016	+17.5	6.07	1.57
2016	+22.5	3.26	1.32
2016	+27.5	3.80	0.96
2016	+32.5	2.71	1.03
2016	+37.5	3.39	0.93
2016	+42.5	1.70	0.74
2016	+47.5	0.50	0.45
2016	+52.5	6.34	0.45
2016	+57.5	1.19	0.35
2016	+62.5	1.68	0.32
2016	+67.5	1.35	0.26
2016	+72.5	0.08	0.10
2016	+77.5	1.22	0.16
2016	+82.5	0.30	0.10
2016	+87.5	0.23	0.03
2016	+92.5	0.00	0.00
2016	+97.5	0.00	0.00
2024	−97.5	0.00	0.00
2024	−92.5	0.00	0.13
2024	−87.5	0.01	0.32
2024	−82.5	0.08	1.03
2024	−77.5	0.28	2.83
2024	−72.5	0.59	4.40
2024	−67.5	1.10	6.49
2024	−62.5	1.51	8.06
2024	−57.5	1.69	6.84
2024	−52.5	2.37	7.61
2024	−47.5	2.40	6.71
2024	−42.5	2.99	6.75
2024	−37.5	3.17	5.59
2024	−32.5	4.02	5.69
2024	−27.5	3.12	4.27
2024	−22.5	4.90	5.04
2024	−17.5	4.24	4.47
2024	−12.5	4.62	3.05
2024	−7.5	4.07	2.47
2024	−2.5	8.27	3.02
2024	+2.5	6.47	2.31
2024	+7.5	3.56	1.73
2024	+12.5	6.13	2.12
2024	+17.5	6.17	1.70
2024	+22.5	5.46	1.57
2024	+27.5	3.95	1.12
2024	+32.5	3.01	1.03
2024	+37.5	3.59	0.77
2024	+42.5	3.97	0.84
2024	+47.5	2.44	0.58
2024	+52.5	1.32	0.32
2024	+57.5	1.54	0.35
2024	+62.5	0.73	0.22
2024	+67.5	1.42	0.29
2024	+72.5	0.19	0.13
2024	+77.5	0.41	0.10
2024	+82.5	0.00	0.00
2024	+87.5	0.21	0.03
2024	+92.5	0.00	0.00
2024	+97.5	0.00	0.00

The figure beside each year is the share of votes cast within 5 points of the national margin: 22.9% in 1976, the most of the seven elections, and 14.7% in 2024. Each ridge is one election, and its height at a point is the share of votes cast in counties whose margin, relative to the national margin, falls in a bin of 5 points, on one height scale for all ridges. Red fill is more Republican than the nation and blue fill more Democratic. Ridge heights depend on the bin width (in bins of 10 points the 1940 ridge is taller than the 1976 ridge), so compare the labeled shares and not the peaks.Note: Bins run from minus 100 to plus 100 points. Counties beyond that range are not drawn. They matter mainly in 1904, when they hold 1.7% of votes and 8.8% of counties, all of them heavily Democratic counties in a year when the national margin was Republican.Note: The share within 5 points does not depend on the bin width, because the two bins next to zero make it up.Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

Distance from the nation differs from competitiveness. When the national margin is far from even, a county 20 points from the nation can still have a close margin of its own, and a county at the national margin is lopsided. The competitiveness of counties is better read from their own margins. On that raw basis, 23.4% of votes were cast in counties whose own margin was within 5 points of an even split in 1976 and 13.2% in 2024. Counted by county, 591 of 3,113 counties were that close in 1976 and 155 are in 2024.The median county margin, ignoring its sign, rose from 14.4 points in 1976 to 43.9 in 2024. Chapter 11.1, Precincts within counties looks below the county line, where a county's margin can hide neighborhoods that vote very differently.

Fixed panels and state margins also show a rise

The number of counties in the returns rose from 1,696 in 1868 to 3,113 in 2024, and smaller units could spread margins more by construction. The number is 3,113 in both 1976 and 2024, though the units are not all the same ones. Figure 7 repeats the calculation on a fixed panel of 1,652 counties that report in every election from 1868. From 1976 to 2024 the panel's share rose by 38.5 points, against 31.0 for all counties, and from 2016 to 2024 it changed by +0.2 points where the share for all counties fell 2.3. The panel's share was 22.0% in 1976, the same at one decimal as in 1916 (22.0%), so the low is shared in the panel.The panel's share was 42.0% in 1868 and 45.5% in 1904, against 42.3% and 48.1% for all counties, and it was 60.3% in 2016, 59.4% in 2020 and 60.5% in 2024. Before 2016 it never exceeded 52.2%. The second view of the figure adds a panel that starts in 1872 and keeps Florida, Mississippi, Texas and Virginia; it has its low in 1976 and its three highest shares in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

Figure 7

In a fixed panel of counties the share rose 38.5 points from 1976 to 2024, against 31.0 for all counties

Share of two-party votes cast in counties at least 20 points from the national margin, percent, for all counties in each election and for a panel of 1,652 counties that report in every election from 1868, through 2024, with a second panel from 1872 in the second view

Show data

Data for In a fixed panel of counties the share rose 38.5 points from 1976 to 2024, against 31.0 for all counties
Counties	Election	Share of votes in far counties (%)	Counties	Share of the election's votes in these counties (%)	Note
All counties	1868	42.3	1,696	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1868	42.0	1,652	99.1	n/a
All counties	1872	50.8	2,160	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1872	50.1	1,652	90.8	n/a
1872 panel	1872	50.5	2,068	98.3	n/a
All counties	1876	38.1	2,230	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1876	34.4	1,652	90.3	n/a
1872 panel	1876	38.1	2,068	97.7	n/a
All counties	1880	38.1	2,291	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1880	33.0	1,652	89.4	n/a
1872 panel	1880	37.4	2,068	96.3	n/a
All counties	1884	30.8	2,351	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1884	29.8	1,652	86.9	n/a
1872 panel	1884	29.8	2,068	95.5	n/a
All counties	1888	29.9	2,429	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1888	27.3	1,652	86.7	n/a
1872 panel	1888	28.8	2,068	94.7	n/a
All counties	1892	33.4	2,658	100.0	Third-party year
1868 panel	1892	29.0	1,652	87.1	Third-party year
1872 panel	1892	34.6	2,068	93.4	Third-party year
All counties	1896	41.1	2,715	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1896	37.2	1,652	83.5	n/a
1872 panel	1896	38.5	2,068	90.4	n/a
All counties	1900	32.9	2,711	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1900	28.4	1,652	83.4	n/a
1872 panel	1900	31.0	2,068	89.7	n/a
All counties	1904	48.1	2,723	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1904	45.5	1,652	84.2	n/a
1872 panel	1904	46.6	2,068	89.0	n/a
All counties	1908	32.9	2,856	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1908	28.9	1,652	81.3	n/a
1872 panel	1908	32.4	2,068	86.3	n/a
All counties	1912	49.9	2,943	100.0	Third-party year
1868 panel	1912	46.8	1,652	79.9	Third-party year
1872 panel	1912	48.9	2,068	85.2	Third-party year
All counties	1916	29.8	3,022	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1916	22.0	1,652	79.2	n/a
1872 panel	1916	26.4	2,068	84.0	n/a
All counties	1920	44.0	3,054	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1920	43.2	1,652	81.3	n/a
1872 panel	1920	44.2	2,068	85.4	n/a
All counties	1924	61.3	3,083	100.0	Third-party year
1868 panel	1924	52.2	1,652	81.1	Third-party year
1872 panel	1924	55.8	2,068	85.7	Third-party year
All counties	1928	39.0	3,097	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1928	36.1	1,652	81.2	n/a
1872 panel	1928	37.5	2,068	85.2	n/a
All counties	1932	40.9	3,096	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1932	37.2	1,652	80.2	n/a
1872 panel	1932	38.6	2,068	84.4	n/a
All counties	1936	39.2	3,095	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1936	34.6	1,652	81.1	n/a
1872 panel	1936	36.6	2,068	84.9	n/a
All counties	1940	33.3	3,094	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1940	28.9	1,652	80.4	n/a
1872 panel	1940	29.9	2,068	84.4	n/a
All counties	1944	33.9	3,095	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1944	33.1	1,652	81.3	n/a
1872 panel	1944	33.3	2,068	85.1	n/a
All counties	1948	28.6	3,096	100.0	Third-party year
1868 panel	1948	25.6	1,652	80.7	Third-party year
1872 panel	1948	27.2	2,068	84.4	Third-party year
All counties	1952	36.8	3,098	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1952	34.6	1,652	78.7	n/a
1872 panel	1952	33.4	2,068	83.6	n/a
All counties	1956	32.5	3,100	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1956	33.4	1,652	78.9	n/a
1872 panel	1956	33.0	2,068	83.6	n/a
All counties	1960	32.8	3,105	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1960	31.6	1,652	78.1	n/a
1872 panel	1960	32.1	2,068	83.0	n/a
All counties	1964	32.5	3,107	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1964	29.1	1,652	76.3	n/a
1872 panel	1964	31.1	2,068	82.0	n/a
All counties	1968	37.2	3,111	100.0	Third-party year
1868 panel	1968	35.4	1,652	76.3	Third-party year
1872 panel	1968	36.2	2,068	81.8	Third-party year
All counties	1972	31.6	3,110	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1972	30.0	1,652	74.0	n/a
1872 panel	1972	30.9	2,068	80.8	n/a
All counties	1976	25.5	3,113	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1976	22.0	1,652	72.4	n/a
1872 panel	1976	22.5	2,068	79.9	n/a
All counties	1980	33.8	3,112	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1980	30.8	1,652	70.8	n/a
1872 panel	1980	30.3	2,068	79.1	n/a
All counties	1984	35.9	3,114	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1984	31.4	1,652	70.1	n/a
1872 panel	1984	30.0	2,068	78.6	n/a
All counties	1988	35.8	3,114	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	1988	32.4	1,652	69.6	n/a
1872 panel	1988	32.1	2,068	78.4	n/a
All counties	1992	38.6	3,115	100.0	Third-party year
1868 panel	1992	33.5	1,652	69.5	Third-party year
1872 panel	1992	37.5	2,068	78.5	Third-party year
All counties	1996	37.9	3,114	100.0	Third-party year
1868 panel	1996	37.4	1,652	68.2	Third-party year
1872 panel	1996	39.4	2,068	77.5	Third-party year
All counties	2000	45.3	3,114	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	2000	44.2	1,652	67.8	n/a
1872 panel	2000	45.1	2,068	77.4	n/a
All counties	2004	46.9	3,114	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	2004	48.0	1,652	67.1	n/a
1872 panel	2004	47.0	2,068	76.9	n/a
All counties	2008	47.3	3,114	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	2008	48.5	1,652	66.4	n/a
1872 panel	2008	47.7	2,068	76.7	n/a
All counties	2012	50.5	3,114	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	2012	50.7	1,652	65.8	n/a
1872 panel	2012	51.8	2,068	76.2	n/a
All counties	2016	58.8	3,113	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	2016	60.3	1,652	65.2	n/a
1872 panel	2016	61.2	2,068	76.0	n/a
All counties	2020	56.6	3,113	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	2020	59.4	1,652	64.0	n/a
1872 panel	2020	60.4	2,068	74.9	n/a
All counties	2024	56.5	3,113	100.0	n/a
1868 panel	2024	60.5	1,652	63.5	n/a
1872 panel	2024	61.0	2,068	74.7	n/a

The dashed line follows the same counties in every election, so counties created or entering the returns later cannot move it. Both lines have their low in 1976, where the panel ties 1916 at one decimal, and outside the third-party years both are highest in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The panel lacks Florida, Mississippi, Texas and Virginia, which have no county returns in 1868, and holds 99.1% of the votes cast in 1868 and 63.5% of those cast in 2024. For a panel, a county is far when it lies 20 points or more from the panel's own margin. Shaded columns mark third-party years, listed in the text.Note: A panel keeps the counties with a positive two-party vote in every election from its first year. The panel from 1868 lacks every state admitted after 1868 and every county created later; the panel from 1872 keeps Florida, Mississippi, Texas and Virginia and lacks the later ones.Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

The states give a second check with units that change far less. The number of states, counting the District of Columbia, was 33 in 1868 and is 50 in both 1976 and 2024. Figure 8 splits the vote-weighted standard deviation of county margins around the national margin into two parts. One is the spread of state margins around the national margin and the other is the spread of county margins around their own state's margin, and the squares of the two add to the square of the total. The spread between states, whose units are the same in 1976 and 2024, rose from 9.4 points in 1976 to 17.2 in 2024, so the rise since 1976 appears when the unit is the state.The cutoff of 20 points is a convention. At 25 and 30 points, 1976 is still the lowest election and 2016, 2020 and 2024 are still the three highest among the elections that are not third-party years. At 15 points, 1916 (37.8%) falls slightly below 1976 (38.3%), which is the one place where the lowest election changes.

Set against the Solid South era, the spread between states is smaller in 2024 than in any election from 1892 to 1924, and the spread within states is larger in 2024 than in any election before 2000. The 2016 and 2020 values between states are above the 1892 to 1924 minimum. The spread within states is measured on counties and so is open to the concern about unit size. The highest value before 2000 is the 1872 one, which rests on Reconstruction-era returns that the last section describes.Between states the spread was 26.4 points in 1904 and 31.8 in 1924, and within states it was 18.9 and 18.8. The share of the variance of county margins that lies within states was 33.9% in 1904 and 25.8% in 1924, against 72.4% in 2024.

Figure 8

The spread of state margins around the national margin rose from 9.4 points in 1976 to 17.2 in 2024

Vote-weighted standard deviation of two-party margins, percentage points: county margins around the national margin, state margins around the national margin, and county margins around their own state's margin, 1868 to 2024

Vote-weighted standard deviation of margins (points)

Show data

Data for The spread of state margins around the national margin rose from 9.4 points in 1976 to 17.2 in 2024
Measure	Election	Standard deviation (points)	Units	Note
All counties	1868	30.6	1,696	n/a
Between states	1868	18.3	33	n/a
Within states	1868	24.6	1,696	n/a
All counties	1872	34.4	2,160	n/a
Between states	1872	21.1	37	n/a
Within states	1872	27.2	2,160	n/a
All counties	1876	26.8	2,230	n/a
Between states	1876	15.2	37	n/a
Within states	1876	22.1	2,230	n/a
All counties	1880	26.8	2,291	n/a
Between states	1880	16.5	38	n/a
Within states	1880	21.1	2,291	n/a
All counties	1884	24.3	2,351	n/a
Between states	1884	14.1	38	n/a
Within states	1884	19.8	2,351	n/a
All counties	1888	24.5	2,429	n/a
Between states	1888	15.9	38	n/a
Within states	1888	18.7	2,429	n/a
All counties	1892	30.9	2,658	Third-party year
Between states	1892	25.5	44	Third-party year
Within states	1892	17.4	2,658	Third-party year
All counties	1896	33.0	2,715	n/a
Between states	1896	27.6	45	n/a
Within states	1896	18.1	2,715	n/a
All counties	1900	25.3	2,711	n/a
Between states	1900	17.9	45	n/a
Within states	1900	17.9	2,711	n/a
All counties	1904	32.4	2,723	n/a
Between states	1904	26.4	45	n/a
Within states	1904	18.9	2,723	n/a
All counties	1908	26.1	2,856	n/a
Between states	1908	20.0	46	n/a
Within states	1908	16.8	2,856	n/a
All counties	1912	30.6	2,943	Third-party year
Between states	1912	23.5	47	Third-party year
Within states	1912	19.7	2,943	Third-party year
All counties	1916	25.3	3,022	n/a
Between states	1916	19.6	48	n/a
Within states	1916	16.0	3,022	n/a
All counties	1920	29.8	3,054	n/a
Between states	1920	24.7	48	n/a
Within states	1920	16.7	3,054	n/a
All counties	1924	37.0	3,083	Third-party year
Between states	1924	31.8	48	Third-party year
Within states	1924	18.8	3,083	Third-party year
All counties	1928	25.6	3,097	n/a
Between states	1928	15.9	48	n/a
Within states	1928	20.0	3,097	n/a
All counties	1932	26.4	3,096	n/a
Between states	1932	19.5	48	n/a
Within states	1932	17.7	3,096	n/a
All counties	1936	24.9	3,095	n/a
Between states	1936	15.7	48	n/a
Within states	1936	19.4	3,095	n/a
All counties	1940	25.8	3,094	n/a
Between states	1940	18.2	48	n/a
Within states	1940	18.3	3,094	n/a
All counties	1944	25.1	3,095	n/a
Between states	1944	16.8	48	n/a
Within states	1944	18.7	3,095	n/a
All counties	1948	22.6	3,096	Third-party year
Between states	1948	12.9	48	Third-party year
Within states	1948	18.6	3,096	Third-party year
All counties	1952	22.5	3,098	n/a
Between states	1952	12.6	48	n/a
Within states	1952	18.7	3,098	n/a
All counties	1956	21.4	3,100	n/a
Between states	1956	10.9	48	n/a
Within states	1956	18.4	3,100	n/a
All counties	1960	20.9	3,105	n/a
Between states	1960	8.8	49	n/a
Within states	1960	19.0	3,105	n/a
All counties	1964	22.2	3,107	n/a
Between states	1964	16.4	50	n/a
Within states	1964	14.9	3,107	n/a
All counties	1968	23.3	3,111	Third-party year
Between states	1968	13.6	50	Third-party year
Within states	1968	18.9	3,111	Third-party year
All counties	1972	20.5	3,110	n/a
Between states	1972	13.4	50	n/a
Within states	1972	15.5	3,110	n/a
All counties	1976	18.4	3,113	n/a
Between states	1976	9.4	50	n/a
Within states	1976	15.7	3,113	n/a
All counties	1980	20.9	3,112	n/a
Between states	1980	11.4	50	n/a
Within states	1980	17.5	3,112	n/a
All counties	1984	21.7	3,114	n/a
Between states	1984	10.4	50	n/a
Within states	1984	19.0	3,114	n/a
All counties	1988	21.3	3,114	n/a
Between states	1988	10.3	50	n/a
Within states	1988	18.7	3,114	n/a
All counties	1992	22.1	3,115	Third-party year
Between states	1992	10.9	50	Third-party year
Within states	1992	19.2	3,115	Third-party year
All counties	1996	23.6	3,114	Third-party year
Between states	1996	13.1	50	Third-party year
Within states	1996	19.6	3,114	Third-party year
All counties	2000	26.5	3,114	n/a
Between states	2000	15.5	50	n/a
Within states	2000	21.5	3,114	n/a
All counties	2004	27.3	3,114	n/a
Between states	2004	14.9	50	n/a
Within states	2004	23.0	3,114	n/a
All counties	2008	28.8	3,114	n/a
Between states	2008	16.2	50	n/a
Within states	2008	23.8	3,114	n/a
All counties	2012	31.1	3,114	n/a
Between states	2012	17.4	50	n/a
Within states	2012	25.7	3,114	n/a
All counties	2016	35.9	3,113	n/a
Between states	2016	19.3	50	n/a
Within states	2016	30.3	3,113	n/a
All counties	2020	34.0	3,113	n/a
Between states	2020	18.3	50	n/a
Within states	2020	28.6	3,113	n/a
All counties	2024	32.7	3,113	n/a
Between states	2024	17.2	50	n/a
Within states	2024	27.9	3,113	n/a

Between states, the spread of state margins around the national margin, peaks in 1924 at 31.8 points, rises from 9.4 points in 1976 to 17.2 in 2024, and in 2024 lies 0.7 points below its lowest value from 1892 to 1924, 17.9. Within states, the spread of county margins around their own state's margin, peaks in 2016 at 30.3 points, and its 2024 value lies 0.7 points above the highest value before 2000, 27.2 in 1872. All counties, the spread of county margins around the national margin, needs no cutoff: 18.4 points in 1976 and 32.7 in 2024. Its square is the sum of the squares of the other two lines. Shaded columns mark third-party years, listed in the text.Note: States are the states and the District of Columbia with returns in the election; a state's margin is its summed two-party margin. The number of states is 33 in 1868, when four Confederate states have no returns, and 50 in both 1976 and 2024, so the between-state series compares the same units in those two elections. The within-state series is measured on counties. The 1872 values rest on Reconstruction-era returns.Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

Measuring against the national margin removes the level of the nation's result, so the far share could still move with how lopsided that result was. Across the 33 elections that are not third-party years, the correlation between the far share and the size of the national margin is −0.07 (95% CI −0.40 to 0.28), close to zero. The sign differs between the eras: the correlation is +0.42 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.70) across the 26 through 1996 and −0.12 (95% CI −0.80 to 0.70) across the 7 from 2000, where the interval is wide. The intervals treat the elections as independent, which adjacent elections are not, so they are narrower than they should be.

Since 1976 the share has risen through elections with national margins of different size. In 1984 the Republican lead was 18.3 points and the share was 35.9%, and in 2020 the Democratic lead was 4.6 points and the share was 56.6%.

Several accounts of the rise fit these returns

The returns show that far counties became more common and do not say why. Hopkins argues that American political behavior has nationalized, with voters attending more to national than to local politics [3]. Counties that swing together, the pattern in Chapter 10.1, Nationalization of the county vote, can still sit at different distances from the nation. Rodden traces an urban-rural divide in partisan geography [4], and the growth of the spread within states, from 15.7 points in 1976 to 30.3 in 2016, is consistent with a divide between cities and their rural surroundings inside states, though the returns contain no measure of density. Bishop and Cushing read the growth of landslide counties as evidence that people moved to places that share their politics [5], an account of party sorting by place. Their landslide counties are measured against an even split, and a cutoff of 20 points from an even split gives 26.7% for 1976 and 48.2% for 2004 in these returns, close to the shares they reported for those years, although theirs are shares of Americans and this one is a share of two-party votes. Abrams and Fiorina dispute the sorting account and recompute landslide counties from voter registration in place of presidential returns [6]. County returns record where votes were cast and not who cast them, who moved or why, so they cannot rank these accounts. Chapter 10.5, Reconstruction and the modern map (planned) relates the Southern county map of the 1870s to that of 2024, and Chapter 1.7, The South (planned) takes up the region directly.

What these data cannot show

Returns record where votes were cast. A county far from the national margin can contain voters of both parties in large numbers, and returns cannot tell voters who changed their choice from people who started or stopped voting or moved in or out, a limit known as ecological inference. Returns also count votes cast and not residents. Where the franchise was restricted, as in the former Confederacy for much of the period before the Voting Rights Act, the shares for the region describe the electorate that voted and not the adult population. Southern returns from the Reconstruction years were collected under contested counts and political violence that the returns do not record.

The two-party margin leaves out the third-party votes in the third-party years, and it cannot say where those voters would have gone. Counties are as reported in each election and their boundaries are not harmonized, so the fixed panels and the state comparison reduce the concern about unit size and do not remove it. The panels cover 63.5% and 74.7% of the 2024 votes and are not a sample of the country.

The chapter measures how far counties sit from the nation in each election and does not say what a far county is like, how competitive its own contests are, or whether the far counties of 2024 differ from those of 1904 in the kinds of people who live in them. The series ends with 2024 and makes no forecast. The share for all counties rose from 1976 to 2016 and has not risen since. The returns cannot say whether the plateau will hold.

Data sources

County election returnsCounty presidential returns, 1868-2024: Algara and Amlani (1868-2020) and MIT Election Data and Science Lab (2024), repaired fileYears: President 1868-2024 (40 elections); House and Senate 1990-2024 · Weights: none (full counts); shares of votes weight each county by its two-party votes, shares of counties count each county once · License: The Heideman file is CC BY 4.0 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.22976553), but the state records behind it keep their own terms, and the sites of Florida, Indiana, Colorado and Wisconsin restrict reuse.

All data sources

Methods

Sample: county presidential returns for the 40 elections from 1868 to 2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868 to 2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), from the repaired file whose 2024 totals are corrected for 173 counties in South Carolina, Wisconsin and West Virginia. The county handling is that of chapter 10.1: 41 Alaska rows are dropped (Alaska reports election districts and has no returns before 2024), then 50 rows with no FIPS code (defunct counties), 88 rows with no vote count, 53 more rows with two-party votes but no total (chapter 10.1 drops them too; keeping them changes no share by more than 0.2 points) and 74 rows with no two-party votes. A year holds 1,696 to 3,115 counties. Counties are as reported in each election and their boundaries are not harmonized. The District of Columbia enters in 1964, and the 1868 returns lack Florida, Mississippi, Texas and Virginia, so the 1868 values are not on the same set of states as those of 1872. Estimand: the two-party margin is 100 times the Democratic minus the Republican votes over their sum; the national margin is the same quantity on the summed votes of the kept counties; a county's relative margin is its margin minus the national margin of the same election; a county is far when the absolute relative margin is at least 20 points and very far at 40 points. The headline is the share of the election's two-party votes cast in far counties, with a second version that counts each county once. The raw version compares the county's own margin with an even split. Weights: none from a survey, because the returns are full counts; shares of votes weight each county by its two-party votes. Third-party years: elections in which candidates outside the two major-party nominees won at least 10% of all votes (1892, 1912, 1924, 1968, 1992, 1996) and 1948, when a States' Rights ticket won Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina; they are shaded in the figures and not removed. In Alabama in 1948 the returns file records the States' Rights ticket, which held the Democratic line because Truman was not on the ballot, as the Democratic vote, so those votes are in the two-party margin, and the state's total in the file counts them again. Regions: the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Other South (DE, DC, KY, MD, OK, WV), Northeast (CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT), Midwest (IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, ND, OH, SD, WI) and West (the rest, without Alaska); the two South groups make up the Census South of chapter 10.1. Robustness: a fixed panel of 1,652 counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections and a panel of 2,068 counties from 1872, each measured against its own summed margin; the vote-weighted standard deviation of county margins around the national margin, split into the standard deviation of state margins around the national margin and of county margins around their own state's margin (the variances add); cutoffs of 15, 25 and 30 points in place of 20. Distribution: shares of votes and of counties in bins of 5 points of relative margin from minus 100 to plus 100. Map: each county's margin minus the national margin is rounded to one decimal place, and a county whose rounded value would fall in another class of the map keeps the fewest further decimals that leave it in the class of its unrounded margin, so the classes count the counties named in the title; the classes break at minus and plus 40, 20 and 5 points. Correlations: Pearson correlations across elections between the absolute national margin and the share of votes cast in far counties, over the 33 elections that are not third-party years, the 26 of them through 1996 and the 7 from 2000. Interval method: none for shares, counts and spreads; a full count has no sampling error, so no confidence interval is reported, and differences between measures come from definitions and the county set, not from chance. The three correlations carry 95% Fisher z intervals that treat the elections as independent, which adjacent elections are not, so the intervals are narrower than they should be. Suppression: a region-year cell needs at least 30 counties, and every cell meets that floor.

References

Amlani, Sharif; Algara, Carlos (2021). Partisanship & Nationalization in American Elections: Evidence from Presidential, Senatorial, & Gubernatorial Elections in the U.S. Counties, 1872-2020. Electoral Studies 73: 102387. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102387
Key, V. O., Jr., with the assistance of Alexander Heard (1949). Southern Politics in State and Nation. Alfred A. Knopf.
Hopkins, Daniel J. (2018). The Increasingly United States: How and Why American Political Behavior Nationalized. University of Chicago Press.
Rodden, Jonathan A. (2019). Why Cities Lose: The Deep Roots of the Urban-Rural Political Divide. Basic Books.
Bishop, Bill, with Robert G. Cushing (2008). The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded America Is Tearing Us Apart. Houghton Mifflin.
Abrams, Samuel J.; Fiorina, Morris P. (2012). “The Big Sort” That Wasn’t: A Skeptical Reexamination. PS: Political Science & Politics 45(2): 203-210. doi:10.1017/S1049096512000017

How to cite

@misc{singh2026thelandslidecounty,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Distance from the national vote, 1868 to 2024},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-landslide-county},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}

A low in 1976, a plateau since 2016

The former Confederacy stood apart until 1944; now every region is far

Far counties are mostly Republican by count and even by votes

Fewer votes fall near the national margin, but not steadily

Fixed panels and state margins also show a rise

The far share and the size of the national margin

Several accounts of the rise fit these returns

What these data cannot show

Data sources

Methods

References

How to cite

Reading paths