Nationalization of the county vote

In 1972 to 1976 the South swung on its own. A county's two-party marginCounty two-party marginThe Democratic vote minus the Republican vote, divided by the sum of the two, so a positive value is a Democratic lead. Votes for other candidates are left out. is the gap between the Democratic and Republican shares of the votes the two parties split. The change in the summed margin of the South's counties was +21.9+21.9 change in the two-party margin, percentage points of the two-party marginEstimandregion's summed two-party margin swing minus the national swingWeightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties in the Census South regionPeriod1972 to 1976SourceCounty election returns pointsPercentage pointThe unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused. more toward the Democrats than the change for the nation.The South is the Census Bureau's South region, the states from Delaware, Maryland and West Virginia through Texas and Oklahoma, and the District of Columbia, which has returns from 1964. Since 1984 to 1988 the South's margin swing has stayed within 2.42.4 percentage points of the two-party marginEstimandlargest absolute value of the region's margin swing minus the national swingWeightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties in the Census South regionPeriod1984 to 2024SourceCounty election returns points of the nation's, and the question this chapter asks is how closely counties everywhere have moved with the country.

Counties moved more nearly in step in 2020 to 2024

A county's swingSwingThe change in a place's two-party margin between two elections. In this book a positive swing is a move toward the Democrats. is the change in its two-party margin from one presidential election to the next, and a positive swing is a move toward the Democrats. The national swingNational swingThe change between two elections in the Democratic minus Republican margin for the country as a whole. A county's own swing is compared with it to show whether the county moved with the nation or against it. is the same change in the summed margin of the matched countiesMatched countiesThe counties that report a vote in both elections being compared. Changes are computed on them so that a county created, merged or renamed between the two elections does not distort the comparison., the ones that reported in both elections. The chapter measures how far county swings disperse around their mean with a standard deviationStandard deviationA measure of how far values typically fall from their average. A larger standard deviation means the values are more spread out. weighted by votes, so that a large county counts for more than a small one, and calls that the spread. If every county moved by the same amount, the spread would be zero.

The spread was 4.54.5 standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party marginEstimandvote-weighted standard deviation of county swings about their weighted meanWeightsnone (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later electionPopulationcounties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excludedPeriod2020 to 2024SourceCounty election returns points in 2020 to 2024, lower than in any other pair of consecutive presidential elections since 1868. Through 1980 to 1984 only one pair, 1940 to 1944, was at or below 1010 standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party marginEstimandthreshold on the vote-weighted standard deviationWeightsnone (full counts)Populationthreshold for counting pairsPeriod1868-2024SourceCounty election returns points. From 1984 to 1988 on only one pair, 2012 to 2016, was at or above it. The lead over the next lowest pair, 2008 to 2012, is small. It holds under every other measure of spread the chapter tries, and when any one state or the District of Columbia is left out in turn (Table 7). Figure 1 shows the distribution behind the spread for nine pairs, from 1872 to 1876 through 2020 to 2024. Each county is placed by its relative swing, its own swing minus the national swing, which is zero for a county that moved exactly with the country. The chapter calls a county near the national swing when its relative swing is within 55 percentage points of the two-party marginEstimanddefinition of 'near the national swing'Weightsnone (full counts)Populationhalf-width of the band around the national swingPeriod1868-2024SourceCounty election returns points of zero.

Figure 1

Relative county swings lay far from zero in early pairs and sat in a narrow band just above zero in 2020 to 2024

Relative swing is a county's swing in the Democratic minus Republican margin minus the national swing, percentage points; height is the share of a pair's votes in each 2-point bin, nine pairs of presidential elections

Show data

Data for Relative county swings lay far from zero in early pairs and sat in a narrow band just above zero in 2020 to 2024

Pair of elections	Bin center (points)	Share of votes (%)
1872–76	−59	0.01
1872–76	−57	0.00
1872–76	−55	0.56
1872–76	−53	0.05
1872–76	−51	0.06
1872–76	−49	0.02
1872–76	−47	0.15
1872–76	−45	0.04
1872–76	−43	0.13
1872–76	−41	0.06
1872–76	−39	0.15
1872–76	−37	0.08
1872–76	−35	0.05
1872–76	−33	0.15
1872–76	−31	0.10
1872–76	−29	0.23
1872–76	−27	1.29
1872–76	−25	0.38
1872–76	−23	0.91
1872–76	−21	1.60
1872–76	−19	2.39
1872–76	−17	3.03
1872–76	−15	4.91
1872–76	−13	6.25
1872–76	−11	8.41
1872–76	−9	6.32
1872–76	−7	5.53
1872–76	−5	6.06
1872–76	−3	8.93
1872–76	−1	4.71
1872–76	+1	5.20
1872–76	+3	3.39
1872–76	+5	2.84
1872–76	+7	2.46
1872–76	+9	1.55
1872–76	+11	1.53
1872–76	+13	1.20
1872–76	+15	0.64
1872–76	+17	0.40
1872–76	+19	0.57
1872–76	+21	2.02
1872–76	+23	0.50
1872–76	+25	0.34
1872–76	+27	0.37
1872–76	+29	0.29
1872–76	+31	0.34
1872–76	+33	0.39
1872–76	+35	0.29
1872–76	+37	0.17
1872–76	+39	0.33
1872–76	+41	0.42
1872–76	+43	0.16
1872–76	+45	0.35
1872–76	+47	0.21
1872–76	+49	0.33
1872–76	+51	0.35
1872–76	+53	0.37
1872–76	+55	0.13
1872–76	+57	0.29
1872–76	+59	0.34
1892–96	−59	0.03
1892–96	−57	0.10
1892–96	−55	0.13
1892–96	−53	0.17
1892–96	−51	0.06
1892–96	−49	0.04
1892–96	−47	0.31
1892–96	−45	0.03
1892–96	−43	0.33
1892–96	−41	0.15
1892–96	−39	0.47
1892–96	−37	1.13
1892–96	−35	0.37
1892–96	−33	0.67
1892–96	−31	1.39
1892–96	−29	0.61
1892–96	−27	0.94
1892–96	−25	3.79
1892–96	−23	4.79
1892–96	−21	3.71
1892–96	−19	2.95
1892–96	−17	1.22
1892–96	−15	2.40
1892–96	−13	1.99
1892–96	−11	1.78
1892–96	−9	3.55
1892–96	−7	2.70
1892–96	−5	5.26
1892–96	−3	3.25
1892–96	−1	5.92
1892–96	+1	4.88
1892–96	+3	3.98
1892–96	+5	3.71
1892–96	+7	4.95
1892–96	+9	3.67
1892–96	+11	3.57
1892–96	+13	2.96
1892–96	+15	2.38
1892–96	+17	1.44
1892–96	+19	1.47
1892–96	+21	0.69
1892–96	+23	0.80
1892–96	+25	1.08
1892–96	+27	0.57
1892–96	+29	0.40
1892–96	+31	0.25
1892–96	+33	0.16
1892–96	+35	0.55
1892–96	+37	0.33
1892–96	+39	0.19
1892–96	+41	0.28
1892–96	+43	0.17
1892–96	+45	0.24
1892–96	+47	0.13
1892–96	+49	0.08
1892–96	+51	0.16
1892–96	+53	0.22
1892–96	+55	0.13
1892–96	+57	0.06
1892–96	+59	0.23
1912–16	−59	0.22
1912–16	−57	0.12
1912–16	−55	0.28
1912–16	−53	0.15
1912–16	−51	0.06
1912–16	−49	0.19
1912–16	−47	0.58
1912–16	−45	0.39
1912–16	−43	0.32
1912–16	−41	0.28
1912–16	−39	0.05
1912–16	−37	0.69
1912–16	−35	0.29
1912–16	−33	0.76
1912–16	−31	0.64
1912–16	−29	1.54
1912–16	−27	1.03
1912–16	−25	0.75
1912–16	−23	1.16
1912–16	−21	1.22
1912–16	−19	1.89
1912–16	−17	1.78
1912–16	−15	2.36
1912–16	−13	1.61
1912–16	−11	2.12
1912–16	−9	11.26
1912–16	−7	2.83
1912–16	−5	2.36
1912–16	−3	1.67
1912–16	−1	2.50
1912–16	+1	2.69
1912–16	+3	2.47
1912–16	+5	4.58
1912–16	+7	4.85
1912–16	+9	3.33
1912–16	+11	3.17
1912–16	+13	4.13
1912–16	+15	3.24
1912–16	+17	3.95
1912–16	+19	3.85
1912–16	+21	2.13
1912–16	+23	2.77
1912–16	+25	2.18
1912–16	+27	3.12
1912–16	+29	1.55
1912–16	+31	1.01
1912–16	+33	0.63
1912–16	+35	1.20
1912–16	+37	0.38
1912–16	+39	0.27
1912–16	+41	0.16
1912–16	+43	0.32
1912–16	+45	0.21
1912–16	+47	0.18
1912–16	+49	0.13
1912–16	+51	0.10
1912–16	+53	0.07
1912–16	+55	0.20
1912–16	+57	0.03
1912–16	+59	0.07
1932–36	−59	0.00
1932–36	−57	0.01
1932–36	−55	0.00
1932–36	−53	0.03
1932–36	−51	0.00
1932–36	−49	0.01
1932–36	−47	0.02
1932–36	−45	0.04
1932–36	−43	0.04
1932–36	−41	0.06
1932–36	−39	0.10
1932–36	−37	0.31
1932–36	−35	0.24
1932–36	−33	0.46
1932–36	−31	0.44
1932–36	−29	0.71
1932–36	−27	1.11
1932–36	−25	1.51
1932–36	−23	1.15
1932–36	−21	1.86
1932–36	−19	2.11
1932–36	−17	2.38
1932–36	−15	2.98
1932–36	−13	2.77
1932–36	−11	3.84
1932–36	−9	2.73
1932–36	−7	3.72
1932–36	−5	7.98
1932–36	−3	7.22
1932–36	−1	6.08
1932–36	+1	2.85
1932–36	+3	5.23
1932–36	+5	3.83
1932–36	+7	8.02
1932–36	+9	6.06
1932–36	+11	7.33
1932–36	+13	2.14
1932–36	+15	2.38
1932–36	+17	2.71
1932–36	+19	1.56
1932–36	+21	0.69
1932–36	+23	0.94
1932–36	+25	1.00
1932–36	+27	0.49
1932–36	+29	3.36
1932–36	+31	0.42
1932–36	+33	0.00
1932–36	+35	0.00
1932–36	+37	0.16
1932–36	+39	0.22
1932–36	+41	0.28
1932–36	+43	0.03
1932–36	+45	0.00
1932–36	+47	0.20
1932–36	+49	0.00
1932–36	+51	0.08
1932–36	+53	0.00
1932–36	+55	0.00
1932–36	+57	0.00
1932–36	+59	0.00
1952–56	−59	0.01
1952–56	−57	0.01
1952–56	−55	0.02
1952–56	−53	0.01
1952–56	−51	0.00
1952–56	−49	0.00
1952–56	−47	0.04
1952–56	−45	0.02
1952–56	−43	0.01
1952–56	−41	0.03
1952–56	−39	0.02
1952–56	−37	0.01
1952–56	−35	0.01
1952–56	−33	0.03
1952–56	−31	0.01
1952–56	−29	0.03
1952–56	−27	0.06
1952–56	−25	0.60
1952–56	−23	0.18
1952–56	−21	0.21
1952–56	−19	0.37
1952–56	−17	0.51
1952–56	−15	0.94
1952–56	−13	2.41
1952–56	−11	4.47
1952–56	−9	8.54
1952–56	−7	6.62
1952–56	−5	7.28
1952–56	−3	8.11
1952–56	−1	6.47
1952–56	+1	10.87
1952–56	+3	4.37
1952–56	+5	13.83
1952–56	+7	7.39
1952–56	+9	3.87
1952–56	+11	3.39
1952–56	+13	1.94
1952–56	+15	2.02
1952–56	+17	1.12
1952–56	+19	1.05
1952–56	+21	0.89
1952–56	+23	0.58
1952–56	+25	0.56
1952–56	+27	0.21
1952–56	+29	0.27
1952–56	+31	0.10
1952–56	+33	0.05
1952–56	+35	0.07
1952–56	+37	0.07
1952–56	+39	0.02
1952–56	+41	0.02
1952–56	+43	0.02
1952–56	+45	0.00
1952–56	+47	0.00
1952–56	+49	0.00
1952–56	+51	0.01
1952–56	+53	0.00
1952–56	+55	0.00
1952–56	+57	0.01
1952–56	+59	0.00
1972–76	−59	0.00
1972–76	−57	0.00
1972–76	−55	0.00
1972–76	−53	0.00
1972–76	−51	0.01
1972–76	−49	0.00
1972–76	−47	0.00
1972–76	−45	0.00
1972–76	−43	0.00
1972–76	−41	0.23
1972–76	−39	0.01
1972–76	−37	0.00
1972–76	−35	0.13
1972–76	−33	0.15
1972–76	−31	0.53
1972–76	−29	0.27
1972–76	−27	0.56
1972–76	−25	0.50
1972–76	−23	1.27
1972–76	−21	1.42
1972–76	−19	1.76
1972–76	−17	4.16
1972–76	−15	3.96
1972–76	−13	4.54
1972–76	−11	10.97
1972–76	−9	9.86
1972–76	−7	4.73
1972–76	−5	4.16
1972–76	−3	6.08
1972–76	−1	3.83
1972–76	+1	3.49
1972–76	+3	4.15
1972–76	+5	2.25
1972–76	+7	3.87
1972–76	+9	3.85
1972–76	+11	3.14
1972–76	+13	1.31
1972–76	+15	1.95
1972–76	+17	1.64
1972–76	+19	1.06
1972–76	+21	0.99
1972–76	+23	1.73
1972–76	+25	1.20
1972–76	+27	0.92
1972–76	+29	0.85
1972–76	+31	0.97
1972–76	+33	0.52
1972–76	+35	0.84
1972–76	+37	0.62
1972–76	+39	0.51
1972–76	+41	0.61
1972–76	+43	0.39
1972–76	+45	0.39
1972–76	+47	0.34
1972–76	+49	0.37
1972–76	+51	0.26
1972–76	+53	0.23
1972–76	+55	0.20
1972–76	+57	0.38
1972–76	+59	0.12
1992–96	−59	0.00
1992–96	−57	0.00
1992–96	−55	0.00
1992–96	−53	0.00
1992–96	−51	0.00
1992–96	−49	0.00
1992–96	−47	0.00
1992–96	−45	0.00
1992–96	−43	0.00
1992–96	−41	0.00
1992–96	−39	0.00
1992–96	−37	0.00
1992–96	−35	0.00
1992–96	−33	0.02
1992–96	−31	0.02
1992–96	−29	0.01
1992–96	−27	0.02
1992–96	−25	0.06
1992–96	−23	0.05
1992–96	−21	0.36
1992–96	−19	0.43
1992–96	−17	0.40
1992–96	−15	1.22
1992–96	−13	2.14
1992–96	−11	2.31
1992–96	−9	4.32
1992–96	−7	7.22
1992–96	−5	6.41
1992–96	−3	9.24
1992–96	−1	10.91
1992–96	+1	13.27
1992–96	+3	9.34
1992–96	+5	6.44
1992–96	+7	6.25
1992–96	+9	4.87
1992–96	+11	4.88
1992–96	+13	3.78
1992–96	+15	3.93
1992–96	+17	1.13
1992–96	+19	0.52
1992–96	+21	0.19
1992–96	+23	0.00
1992–96	+25	0.01
1992–96	+27	0.21
1992–96	+29	0.01
1992–96	+31	0.00
1992–96	+33	0.00
1992–96	+35	0.00
1992–96	+37	0.00
1992–96	+39	0.00
1992–96	+41	0.00
1992–96	+43	0.00
1992–96	+45	0.00
1992–96	+47	0.00
1992–96	+49	0.00
1992–96	+51	0.00
1992–96	+53	0.00
1992–96	+55	0.00
1992–96	+57	0.00
1992–96	+59	0.00
2012–16	−59	0.00
2012–16	−57	0.00
2012–16	−55	0.00
2012–16	−53	0.00
2012–16	−51	0.00
2012–16	−49	0.00
2012–16	−47	0.00
2012–16	−45	0.00
2012–16	−43	0.00
2012–16	−41	0.01
2012–16	−39	0.01
2012–16	−37	0.03
2012–16	−35	0.08
2012–16	−33	0.11
2012–16	−31	0.28
2012–16	−29	0.49
2012–16	−27	0.49
2012–16	−25	0.72
2012–16	−23	1.21
2012–16	−21	1.13
2012–16	−19	1.41
2012–16	−17	2.19
2012–16	−15	2.64
2012–16	−13	2.38
2012–16	−11	4.13
2012–16	−9	3.47
2012–16	−7	6.19
2012–16	−5	5.31
2012–16	−3	5.33
2012–16	−1	9.77
2012–16	+1	4.89
2012–16	+3	7.38
2012–16	+5	7.62
2012–16	+7	6.08
2012–16	+9	7.27
2012–16	+11	6.75
2012–16	+13	3.44
2012–16	+15	5.03
2012–16	+17	2.72
2012–16	+19	0.78
2012–16	+21	0.11
2012–16	+23	0.01
2012–16	+25	0.21
2012–16	+27	0.00
2012–16	+29	0.09
2012–16	+31	0.00
2012–16	+33	0.00
2012–16	+35	0.25
2012–16	+37	0.00
2012–16	+39	0.00
2012–16	+41	0.00
2012–16	+43	0.00
2012–16	+45	0.00
2012–16	+47	0.00
2012–16	+49	0.00
2012–16	+51	0.00
2012–16	+53	0.00
2012–16	+55	0.00
2012–16	+57	0.00
2012–16	+59	0.00
2020–24	−59	0.00
2020–24	−57	0.00
2020–24	−55	0.00
2020–24	−53	0.00
2020–24	−51	0.00
2020–24	−49	0.00
2020–24	−47	0.00
2020–24	−45	0.00
2020–24	−43	0.00
2020–24	−41	0.00
2020–24	−39	0.00
2020–24	−37	0.00
2020–24	−35	0.00
2020–24	−33	0.00
2020–24	−31	0.00
2020–24	−29	0.00
2020–24	−27	0.00
2020–24	−25	0.00
2020–24	−23	0.01
2020–24	−21	0.13

Showing the first 500 of 540 rows.

Full counts of county returns, with no sampling error

These are counted votes, not survey answers. The returns cover every county with a usable two-party return in each presidential election from 1868 to 2024. They come from the Algara and Amlani county file for 1868 to 2020 [1] and from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024, and Alaska is left out. Each pair of consecutive elections uses the counties that reported in both, 3,1113,111 countiesEstimandcount of counties matched on FIPSWeightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excludedPeriod2020 to 2024SourceCounty election returns of them in 2020 to 2024, and weights each by its two-party votes in the later election. A full count has no sampling error, so the spreads and shares here carry no intervals. A difference between two of them comes from how they are defined and which counties enter, not from chance. The qualification that matters is the county itself. Counties are matched on FIPS code and their boundaries are not harmonized, so a county that gained or lost territory between two elections is treated as one unit. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

Two records, in two different pairs

The spread is one reading of the returns. A second is distance from the national result, the share of votes cast in counties near the national swing. The share of votes cast in counties near the national swing was 73.3%73.3% percent of the later election's two-party votesEstimandshare of votes cast in counties whose swing is within the band of the national swingWeightsnone (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later electionPopulationcounties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excludedPeriod2008 to 2012SourceCounty election returns in 2008 to 2012, higher than in 2020 to 2024. The two records therefore fall in different pairs. The spread is lowest in 2020 to 2024, and the share of votes near the national swing is highest in 2008 to 2012. The spread gives large deviations more weight than the share does, which is why the two measures can rank neighboring pairs differently. Counted by county rather than by vote, the share near the national swing is highest in 2020 to 2024.

The last ridge in Figure 1 also sits above zero rather than on it. The national swing is the change in a summed margin, so it counts where votes were cast as well as how counties voted. In 2020 to 2024 it lay further toward the Republicans than the vote-weighted mean of county swings did. Measured against that mean instead of the national swing, 80.0%80.0% percent of the later election's two-party votesEstimandshare of votes cast in counties within the band of the vote-weighted mean county swingWeightsnone (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later electionPopulationcounties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excludedPeriod2020 to 2024SourceCounty election returns of votes and 86.3%86.3% percent of matched countiesEstimandshare of counties within the band of the vote-weighted mean county swingWeightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excludedPeriod2020 to 2024SourceCounty election returns of counties fall within the band. The chapter keeps the national swing as its reference. Figure 2 shows the same relative swings county by county, one pair at a time.

Figure 2

The share of counties within 5 points of the national swing rose from 21.2% in 1972 to 1976 to 75.6% in 2020 to 2024

Change in each county's Democratic minus Republican margin, minus the national change, percentage points, for each of 39 pairs of presidential elections

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County swing minus national swing (points)

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• Alaska draws as no data. Its election returns are reported by election district, and the district codes cannot be matched to boroughs and census areas.

What a narrower spread means, and what it does not

The spread measures how uniformly counties moved between two elections and does not say why. It is also a different reading from persistence, the third one the chapter keeps apart, which asks how far differences in county levels carry from one election to the next. The vote-weighted correlationCorrelationA number from minus 1 to plus 1 for how closely two measures move together in a straight-line pattern. Zero means no straight-line pattern; a correlation does not say that one measure causes the other. between a county's margin and its margin in the previous election was 0.510.51 correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1Estimandvote-weighted correlation between county margins in the pair's two electionsWeightsnone (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later electionPopulationcounties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excludedPeriod1972 to 1976SourceCounty election returns in 1972 to 1976 and 0.990.99 correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1Estimandvote-weighted correlation between county margins in the pair's two electionsWeightsnone (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later electionPopulationcounties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excludedPeriod2020 to 2024SourceCounty election returns in 2020 to 2024. That correlation depends on how spread out county margins are as well as on the spread of swings, so it accompanies the spread and does not replace it. Nor did the spread narrow in one step. It rose in 2012 to 2016, the pair with the lowest share of votes near the national swing of any pair after 1980 to 1984, and both measures recovered in 2016 to 2020. Chapter 12.7, Education, ethnicity and the county shift, 2016 to 2024 follows which kinds of counties moved from that year to 2024.

The regional pattern of the opening paragraph is in Figure 3. Inside the South the spread of county swings was larger than in the rest of the country in every pair from 1940 to 1944 through 1988 to 1992, and the run ended on small gaps. In 2020 to 2024 the South's spread was no longer the larger of the two. Amlani and Algara [1] use the same county file for presidential, Senate and gubernatorial elections from 1872 to 2020 and conclude that contemporary elections are highly nationalized. Hopkins [2] documents the process in American attitudes and behavior with surveys and experiments. The spread of county swings does not reproduce their measures. How far counties sit from the national result in a single election, as against how far they moved, is the subject of Chapter 10.2, Distance from the national vote, 1868 to 2024.

Figure 3

The spread of county swings was 33.5 points in the South and 11.4 elsewhere in 1960 to 1964, and 4.4 and 4.5 in 2020 to 2024

Standard deviation of county swings within each region, percentage points of the two-party margin, weighted by votes; one point per pair of elections, plotted at the later election

Spread within each regionSouth against the nation

Standard deviation of county swings within the region (points)

Show data

Data for The spread of county swings was 33.5 points in the South and 11.4 elsewhere in 1960 to 1964, and 4.4 and 4.5 in 2020 to 2024

View	Pair of elections	Region	Value (points)	Counties
spread	1868–72	South	39.98	670
spread	1868–72	Rest of the country	28.60	1,017
offset	1868–72	South	−6.13	670
offset	1868–72	Rest of the country	1.02	1,017
spread	1872–76	South	23.21	1,059
spread	1872–76	Rest of the country	31.15	1,092
offset	1872–76	South	5.38	1,059
offset	1872–76	Rest of the country	−1.96	1,092
spread	1876–80	South	22.54	1,084
spread	1876–80	Rest of the country	6.53	1,132
offset	1876–80	South	3.57	1,084
offset	1876–80	Rest of the country	−0.47	1,132
spread	1880–84	South	16.59	1,106
spread	1880–84	Rest of the country	9.22	1,177
offset	1880–84	South	−3.32	1,106
offset	1880–84	Rest of the country	1.05	1,177
spread	1884–88	South	17.09	1,142
spread	1884–88	Rest of the country	6.22	1,203
offset	1884–88	South	1.77	1,142
offset	1884–88	Rest of the country	−0.39	1,203
spread	1888–92	South	23.35	1,164
spread	1888–92	Rest of the country	14.20	1,260
offset	1888–92	South	7.85	1,164
offset	1888–92	Rest of the country	−1.93	1,260
spread	1892–96	South	24.96	1,197
spread	1892–96	Rest of the country	42.19	1,457
offset	1892–96	South	−4.18	1,197
offset	1892–96	Rest of the country	1.29	1,457
spread	1896–1900	South	17.22	1,188
spread	1896–1900	Rest of the country	24.15	1,507
offset	1896–1900	South	−0.17	1,188
offset	1896–1900	Rest of the country	0.79	1,507
spread	1900–04	South	16.19	1,164
spread	1900–04	Rest of the country	13.74	1,516
offset	1900–04	South	18.70	1,164
offset	1900–04	Rest of the country	−3.18	1,516
spread	1904–08	South	12.32	1,185
spread	1904–08	Rest of the country	13.67	1,522
offset	1904–08	South	−12.42	1,185
offset	1904–08	Rest of the country	2.79	1,522
spread	1908–12	South	22.53	1,320
spread	1908–12	Rest of the country	24.00	1,512
offset	1908–12	South	−5.59	1,320
offset	1908–12	Rest of the country	0.38	1,512
spread	1912–16	South	23.35	1,356
spread	1912–16	Rest of the country	26.50	1,586
offset	1912–16	South	4.51	1,356
offset	1912–16	Rest of the country	0.40	1,586
spread	1916–20	South	15.08	1,375
spread	1916–20	Rest of the country	15.27	1,643
offset	1916–20	South	10.84	1,375
offset	1916–20	Rest of the country	−3.53	1,643
spread	1920–24	South	14.72	1,382
spread	1920–24	Rest of the country	16.16	1,666
offset	1920–24	South	12.63	1,382
offset	1920–24	Rest of the country	−2.66	1,666
spread	1924–28	South	25.15	1,405
spread	1924–28	Rest of the country	24.93	1,678
offset	1924–28	South	−38.58	1,405
offset	1924–28	Rest of the country	9.72	1,678
spread	1928–32	South	24.02	1,411
spread	1928–32	Rest of the country	18.64	1,684
offset	1928–32	South	15.17	1,411
offset	1928–32	Rest of the country	−3.45	1,684
spread	1932–36	South	13.20	1,412
spread	1932–36	Rest of the country	14.49	1,683
offset	1932–36	South	−6.15	1,412
offset	1932–36	Rest of the country	1.58	1,683
spread	1936–40	South	10.70	1,411
spread	1936–40	Rest of the country	11.44	1,683
offset	1936–40	South	10.11	1,411
offset	1936–40	Rest of the country	−1.79	1,683
spread	1940–44	South	9.64	1,411
spread	1940–44	Rest of the country	5.25	1,682
offset	1940–44	South	−4.90	1,411
offset	1940–44	Rest of the country	0.95	1,682
spread	1944–48	South	17.49	1,412
spread	1944–48	Rest of the country	10.30	1,683
offset	1944–48	South	−5.27	1,412
offset	1944–48	Rest of the country	1.25	1,683
spread	1948–52	South	18.79	1,411
spread	1948–52	Rest of the country	10.40	1,683
offset	1948–52	South	−6.54	1,411
offset	1948–52	Rest of the country	0.39	1,683
spread	1952–56	South	13.77	1,414
spread	1952–56	Rest of the country	8.76	1,683
offset	1952–56	South	−2.82	1,414
offset	1952–56	Rest of the country	0.79	1,683
spread	1956–60	South	18.23	1,417
spread	1956–60	Rest of the country	12.63	1,683
offset	1956–60	South	−8.70	1,417
offset	1956–60	Rest of the country	2.11	1,683
spread	1960–64	South	33.49	1,415
spread	1960–64	Rest of the country	11.44	1,687
offset	1960–64	South	−16.52	1,415
offset	1960–64	Rest of the country	4.91	1,687
spread	1964–68	South	39.16	1,419
spread	1964–68	Rest of the country	9.43	1,688
offset	1964–68	South	13.63	1,419
offset	1964–68	Rest of the country	−4.20	1,688
spread	1968–72	South	25.37	1,422
spread	1968–72	Rest of the country	9.99	1,687
offset	1968–72	South	−14.73	1,422
offset	1968–72	Rest of the country	5.15	1,687
spread	1972–76	South	20.70	1,422
spread	1972–76	Rest of the country	9.66	1,688
offset	1972–76	South	21.93	1,422
offset	1972–76	Rest of the country	−8.04	1,688
spread	1976–80	South	11.08	1,425
spread	1976–80	Rest of the country	10.57	1,687
offset	1976–80	South	−2.92	1,425
offset	1976–80	Rest of the country	0.96	1,687
spread	1980–84	South	12.04	1,425
spread	1980–84	Rest of the country	8.01	1,687
offset	1980–84	South	−9.28	1,425
offset	1980–84	Rest of the country	4.21	1,687
spread	1984–88	South	6.97	1,425
spread	1984–88	Rest of the country	5.39	1,689
offset	1984–88	South	−2.43	1,425
offset	1984–88	Rest of the country	1.12	1,689
spread	1988–92	South	7.65	1,425
spread	1988–92	Rest of the country	7.54	1,689
offset	1988–92	South	0.91	1,425
offset	1988–92	Rest of the country	−0.09	1,689
spread	1992–96	South	6.66	1,424
spread	1992–96	Rest of the country	8.33	1,690
offset	1992–96	South	−1.24	1,424
offset	1992–96	Rest of the country	0.67	1,690
spread	1996–2000	South	9.13	1,423
spread	1996–2000	Rest of the country	6.92	1,690
offset	1996–2000	South	−1.98	1,423
offset	1996–2000	Rest of the country	1.08	1,690
spread	2000–04	South	6.58	1,423
spread	2000–04	Rest of the country	5.83	1,690
offset	2000–04	South	−0.73	1,423
offset	2000–04	Rest of the country	0.49	1,690
spread	2004–08	South	9.30	1,423
spread	2004–08	Rest of the country	6.34	1,691
offset	2004–08	South	−1.83	1,423
offset	2004–08	Rest of the country	1.32	1,691
spread	2008–12	South	4.50	1,423
spread	2008–12	Rest of the country	5.18	1,691
offset	2008–12	South	1.17	1,423
offset	2008–12	Rest of the country	−0.46	1,691
spread	2012–16	South	9.20	1,422
spread	2012–16	Rest of the country	11.61	1,690
offset	2012–16	South	1.04	1,422
offset	2012–16	Rest of the country	−0.34	1,690
spread	2016–20	South	6.68	1,422
spread	2016–20	Rest of the country	5.03	1,691
offset	2016–20	South	0.14	1,422
offset	2016–20	Rest of the country	−0.20	1,691
spread	2020–24	South	4.40	1,422
spread	2020–24	Rest of the country	4.50	1,689
offset	2020–24	South	0.36	1,422
offset	2020–24	Rest of the country	−0.01	1,689

What these returns cannot tell you

County returns describe places, not voters, and a county that swings with the nation can contain groups that moved in opposite directions. Returns cannot tell voters who changed their choice from people who started or stopped voting or moved in or out, a limit known as ecological inferenceEcological inferenceDrawing a conclusion about individuals from data on groups or places, such as counties. A pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them.. Returns before 1965 count the votes of the people allowed to vote. In much of the South, barriers to voting kept many Black citizens from the ballot until the Voting Rights Act, so early margins describe smaller electorates than the populations of those counties. The two-party margin leaves out third-party votes, so the pairs that include a strong third-party election are the least comparable with the rest, and the series ends with 2024 and makes no forecast.

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Go deeper

• The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
• Tables: every figure of the report as a table.
• Elections, 1976 to 2024: the explorer for this part.

Reading paths that include this chapter:

• The core argument in eight chapters
• A tour of the book, one chapter per part
• Start with the map

Data sources

• County election returnsCounty presidential returns, 1868-2024: Algara and Amlani (1868-2020) and MIT Election Data and Science Lab (2024), repaired fileYears: President 1868-2024 (40 elections); House and Senate 1990-2024 · Weights: none (full counts); county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election, county-equal in one view · License: The Heideman file is CC BY 4.0 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.22976553), but the state records behind it keep their own terms, and the sites of Florida, Indiana, Colorado and Wisconsin restrict reuse.

All data sources

References

1. Amlani, Sharif; Algara, Carlos (2021). Partisanship & Nationalization in American Elections: Evidence from Presidential, Senatorial, & Gubernatorial Elections in the U.S. Counties, 1872-2020. Electoral Studies 73: 102387. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102387
2. Hopkins, Daniel J. (2018). The Increasingly United States: How and Why American Political Behavior Nationalized. University of Chicago Press.

How to cite

@misc{singh2026nationalizationofthecountyvote,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Nationalization of the county vote},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/nationalization-of-the-county-vote},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}