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Contents
The Public Mind

    Type to search. Planned chapters match by title only.

    Volume 3: The political map

    Part XIII

    Hardship, health and the vote

    Different kinds of hardship relate to the vote in different directions, and some relations vanish once race and education are held fixed.

    2 written, 6 planned

    This part asks which kinds of hardship relate to the vote and which stand in for demographics. Air pollution and the vote asks whether neighborhoods with more diesel and traffic pollution vote differently once race, income and education are held fixed. The planned chapters compare measures of hardship on one specification and add firearm deaths, deprivation and mobility, small-area health outcomes, social capital, deaths of despair and COVID. Each asks whether its measure still relates to the vote after those adjustments.

    Chapters

    1. 13.1

      Measures of hardship compared

      Of the 20 tract measures of hardship that track the 2020 Democratic vote before any controls, 3 keep at least 50% of that association once race and ethnicity, education, density and state are held fixed, 9 lose more than 50% of it and 8 reverse sign, by a grouping rule set after a first run of the estimates.

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    2. 13.2

      Firearm deaths and the vote

      How do firearm suicide and firearm homicide rates relate to the neighborhood vote?

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    3. 13.3

      Deprivation and mobility

      Does present-day deprivation or childhood mobility track the vote once race is held constant?

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    4. 13.4

      Health outcomes and the vote

      Which of 40 small-area health outcomes track the vote net of demographics?

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    5. 13.5

      Social capital

      How do bonding ties and cross-class connections relate to the vote and to the 2016 to 2020 swing?

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    6. 13.6

      Air pollution and the vote

      Tracts with more diesel exposure voted more Democratic in 2020, by 24.8 points per standard deviation of exposure, but only 4.9 points once race, income, education and density are held fixed.

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    7. 13.7

      Deaths of despair

      Do county suicide, alcohol and overdose deaths track the presidential swing over time?

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    8. 13.8

      COVID and the vote

      Did county COVID mortality and vaccination follow the partisan map?

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