Chapter 14.4

The ideology of the donor pool

Among reliable donors, the share near the middle of the CFscore left-right scale fell from 11.8% in 1980 to 1.2% in 2024, and donors who joined the pool account for most of the fall.

Author: Vishal Singh
Affiliation: NYU Stern
Published: 30 September 2026

DraftFigures and numbers may change as the analysis is rebuilt.what is still being checked

Two checks are not run: the shares do not carry the estimation error of each CFscore, and the effect of platform-era itemization on who enters the pool cannot be tested because the DIME files hold no recipients and no unitemized gifts.

The share of reliable individual donors with a CFscore within 0.25 of zero fell from 11.8% in 1980 to 1.2% in 2024. A CFscore places a donor on a left-right scale from the donor's giving, with negative scores on the left and positive scores on the right, and a donor is reliable if they gave to at least 8 distinct recipients. Over the same period the median score of active donors went from +0.62 to −0.98, so a pool that was mostly right of zero in 1980 was mostly left of zero in 2024.

DIME assigns each donor one CFscore for all of their giving, so the measure cannot show a donor moving along the scale, and a change over time in the distribution is a change in who is active. Donors who joined the pool between consecutive cycles account for most of the fall in the share near zero, and the fall holds for every width of the center and every minimum number of recipients checked. The share of candidates near zero was lower in 2020 than in 1980 and higher in 2022 and 2024 than in 2020, on small counts, and a survey measure of self-described moderates changes less over 2006 to 2024. Chapter 14.1, Who donates (planned) asks who gives at all, Chapter 14.3, Occupation and donations (planned) asks how donors' jobs relate to their scores, and Chapter 14.2, The geography of donations (planned) asks where they live.

How donors and candidates are scored

The data are the Stanford Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections (DIME) [1], which estimates a score for each donor and each candidate from the same records of who gave to whom [2]. The file covers itemized gifts, which are gifts large enough that the recipient must report the giver by name, in 23 two-year election cycles from 1980 to 2024. A CFscore has no natural unit. For scale, the median Democratic candidate scored −0.96 in 2024 and the median Republican candidate +1.35, so a band of 0.25 on each side of zero is narrow next to the 2.31 between those medians.

A reliable donor gave to at least 8 distinct recipients over the whole career and has a score estimated from that giving. Donors with fewer recipients have less precise scores, and some have a score carried over from the recipient they gave to instead of one estimated from their own giving. Reliable donors were 20.1% of the 154,785 donors with a score who were active in 1980 and 36.0% of the 7,043,771 active in 2024. The flag is set once from a donor's whole record, so a donor who reached 8 recipients years after first giving counts as reliable in every cycle in which they gave. A donor who joined recently has had less time to reach that number, so the early and late pools are selected by different rules.DIME puts federal and state donors on one scale, so the donor lines cover gifts to state as well as federal recipients, while the candidates in this chapter are federal House and Senate candidates only. The files hold no link from a donor to a recipient and count only itemized gifts. Dollars are in real 2024 dollars.

Figure 1 shows the distribution of scores among active donors in each cycle. In 1980, 34.9% of donors were left of zero, and in 2024, 75.7%. The median crossed zero between 2002 (+0.10) and 2004 (−0.17). The share of donors between −0.75 and 0.75 fell from 45.6% to 6.1%, so the change reaches donors who lean moderately left or right as well as those nearest zero. By 2024 the distribution has two peaks: 72.1% of donors score between −1.3 and −0.7, and a smaller peak holds 18.4% between 1.3 and 1.7.

Figure 1

The share of donors near zero fell and donors left of zero became the majority between 1980 and 2024

CFscores of reliable individual donors active in each election cycle, 1980-2024; a donor counts in every cycle in which they gave

Show data

Data for The share of donors near zero fell and donors left of zero became the majority between 1980 and 2024
Election cycle	Weighted by	CFscore (bin center)	Density
1980	Donors	−2.45	0.000
1980	Donors	−2.35	0.000
1980	Donors	−2.25	0.000
1980	Donors	−2.15	0.000
1980	Donors	−2.05	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.95	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.85	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.75	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.65	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.55	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.45	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.35	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.25	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.15	0.002
1980	Donors	−1.05	0.036
1980	Donors	−0.95	0.242
1980	Donors	−0.85	0.392
1980	Donors	−0.75	0.445
1980	Donors	−0.65	0.469
1980	Donors	−0.55	0.420
1980	Donors	−0.45	0.387
1980	Donors	−0.35	0.334
1980	Donors	−0.25	0.284
1980	Donors	−0.15	0.244
1980	Donors	−0.05	0.237
1980	Donors	0.05	0.240
1980	Donors	0.15	0.217
1980	Donors	0.25	0.225
1980	Donors	0.35	0.246
1980	Donors	0.45	0.258
1980	Donors	0.55	0.270
1980	Donors	0.65	0.319
1980	Donors	0.75	0.408
1980	Donors	0.85	0.478
1980	Donors	0.95	0.635
1980	Donors	1.05	0.877
1980	Donors	1.15	1.052
1980	Donors	1.25	0.907
1980	Donors	1.35	0.310
1980	Donors	1.45	0.058
1980	Donors	1.55	0.004
1980	Donors	1.65	0.001
1980	Donors	1.75	0.000
1980	Donors	1.85	0.000
1980	Donors	1.95	0.000
1980	Donors	2.05	0.000
1980	Donors	2.15	0.000
1980	Donors	2.25	0.000
1980	Donors	2.35	0.000
1980	Donors	2.45	0.000
1980	Dollars	−2.45	0.000
1980	Dollars	−2.35	0.000
1980	Dollars	−2.25	0.000
1980	Dollars	−2.15	0.000
1980	Dollars	−2.05	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.95	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.85	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.75	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.65	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.55	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.45	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.35	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.25	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.15	0.001
1980	Dollars	−1.05	0.016
1980	Dollars	−0.95	0.162
1980	Dollars	−0.85	0.405
1980	Dollars	−0.75	0.482
1980	Dollars	−0.65	0.503
1980	Dollars	−0.55	0.445
1980	Dollars	−0.45	0.384
1980	Dollars	−0.35	0.345
1980	Dollars	−0.25	0.316
1980	Dollars	−0.15	0.258
1980	Dollars	−0.05	0.273
1980	Dollars	0.05	0.233
1980	Dollars	0.15	0.223
1980	Dollars	0.25	0.228
1980	Dollars	0.35	0.256
1980	Dollars	0.45	0.276
1980	Dollars	0.55	0.278
1980	Dollars	0.65	0.309
1980	Dollars	0.75	0.357
1980	Dollars	0.85	0.425
1980	Dollars	0.95	0.628
1980	Dollars	1.05	0.901
1980	Dollars	1.15	1.159
1980	Dollars	1.25	0.900
1980	Dollars	1.35	0.208
1980	Dollars	1.45	0.027
1980	Dollars	1.55	0.002
1980	Dollars	1.65	0.000
1980	Dollars	1.75	0.000
1980	Dollars	1.85	0.000
1980	Dollars	1.95	0.000
1980	Dollars	2.05	0.000
1980	Dollars	2.15	0.000
1980	Dollars	2.25	0.000
1980	Dollars	2.35	0.000
1980	Dollars	2.45	0.000
1982	Donors	−2.45	0.000
1982	Donors	−2.35	0.000
1982	Donors	−2.25	0.000
1982	Donors	−2.15	0.000
1982	Donors	−2.05	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.95	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.85	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.75	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.65	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.55	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.45	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.35	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.25	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.15	0.006
1982	Donors	−1.05	0.038
1982	Donors	−0.95	0.212
1982	Donors	−0.85	0.359
1982	Donors	−0.75	0.426
1982	Donors	−0.65	0.449
1982	Donors	−0.55	0.425
1982	Donors	−0.45	0.384
1982	Donors	−0.35	0.337
1982	Donors	−0.25	0.296
1982	Donors	−0.15	0.253
1982	Donors	−0.05	0.249
1982	Donors	0.05	0.258
1982	Donors	0.15	0.226
1982	Donors	0.25	0.223
1982	Donors	0.35	0.254
1982	Donors	0.45	0.258
1982	Donors	0.55	0.275
1982	Donors	0.65	0.335
1982	Donors	0.75	0.378
1982	Donors	0.85	0.461
1982	Donors	0.95	0.613
1982	Donors	1.05	0.873
1982	Donors	1.15	1.041
1982	Donors	1.25	1.010
1982	Donors	1.35	0.305
1982	Donors	1.45	0.048
1982	Donors	1.55	0.007
1982	Donors	1.65	0.000
1982	Donors	1.75	0.000
1982	Donors	1.85	0.000
1982	Donors	1.95	0.000
1982	Donors	2.05	0.000
1982	Donors	2.15	0.000
1982	Donors	2.25	0.000
1982	Donors	2.35	0.000
1982	Donors	2.45	0.000
1982	Dollars	−2.45	0.000
1982	Dollars	−2.35	0.000
1982	Dollars	−2.25	0.000
1982	Dollars	−2.15	0.000
1982	Dollars	−2.05	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.95	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.85	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.75	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.65	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.55	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.45	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.35	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.25	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.15	0.004
1982	Dollars	−1.05	0.043
1982	Dollars	−0.95	0.165
1982	Dollars	−0.85	0.387
1982	Dollars	−0.75	0.458
1982	Dollars	−0.65	0.474
1982	Dollars	−0.55	0.373
1982	Dollars	−0.45	0.335
1982	Dollars	−0.35	0.292
1982	Dollars	−0.25	0.254
1982	Dollars	−0.15	0.208
1982	Dollars	−0.05	0.193
1982	Dollars	0.05	0.193
1982	Dollars	0.15	0.173
1982	Dollars	0.25	0.186
1982	Dollars	0.35	0.203
1982	Dollars	0.45	0.204
1982	Dollars	0.55	0.251
1982	Dollars	0.65	0.260
1982	Dollars	0.75	0.286
1982	Dollars	0.85	0.355
1982	Dollars	0.95	0.534
1982	Dollars	1.05	0.943
1982	Dollars	1.15	1.443
1982	Dollars	1.25	1.476
1982	Dollars	1.35	0.281
1982	Dollars	1.45	0.025
1982	Dollars	1.55	0.002
1982	Dollars	1.65	0.000
1982	Dollars	1.75	0.000
1982	Dollars	1.85	0.000
1982	Dollars	1.95	0.000
1982	Dollars	2.05	0.000
1982	Dollars	2.15	0.000
1982	Dollars	2.25	0.000
1982	Dollars	2.35	0.000
1982	Dollars	2.45	0.000
1984	Donors	−2.45	0.000
1984	Donors	−2.35	0.000
1984	Donors	−2.25	0.000
1984	Donors	−2.15	0.000
1984	Donors	−2.05	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.95	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.85	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.75	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.65	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.55	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.45	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.35	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.25	0.001
1984	Donors	−1.15	0.008
1984	Donors	−1.05	0.067
1984	Donors	−0.95	0.293
1984	Donors	−0.85	0.422
1984	Donors	−0.75	0.460
1984	Donors	−0.65	0.475
1984	Donors	−0.55	0.446
1984	Donors	−0.45	0.383
1984	Donors	−0.35	0.356
1984	Donors	−0.25	0.288
1984	Donors	−0.15	0.267
1984	Donors	−0.05	0.247
1984	Donors	0.05	0.232
1984	Donors	0.15	0.217
1984	Donors	0.25	0.217
1984	Donors	0.35	0.228
1984	Donors	0.45	0.244
1984	Donors	0.55	0.252
1984	Donors	0.65	0.307
1984	Donors	0.75	0.356
1984	Donors	0.85	0.436
1984	Donors	0.95	0.565
1984	Donors	1.05	0.785
1984	Donors	1.15	0.990
1984	Donors	1.25	1.026
1984	Donors	1.35	0.369
1984	Donors	1.45	0.056
1984	Donors	1.55	0.008
1984	Donors	1.65	0.001
1984	Donors	1.75	0.000
1984	Donors	1.85	0.000
1984	Donors	1.95	0.000
1984	Donors	2.05	0.000
1984	Donors	2.15	0.000
1984	Donors	2.25	0.000
1984	Donors	2.35	0.000
1984	Donors	2.45	0.000
1984	Dollars	−2.45	0.000
1984	Dollars	−2.35	0.000
1984	Dollars	−2.25	0.000
1984	Dollars	−2.15	0.000
1984	Dollars	−2.05	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.95	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.85	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.75	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.65	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.55	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.45	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.35	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.25	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.15	0.006
1984	Dollars	−1.05	0.058
1984	Dollars	−0.95	0.241
1984	Dollars	−0.85	0.434
1984	Dollars	−0.75	0.464
1984	Dollars	−0.65	0.458
1984	Dollars	−0.55	0.377
1984	Dollars	−0.45	0.320
1984	Dollars	−0.35	0.283
1984	Dollars	−0.25	0.236
1984	Dollars	−0.15	0.220
1984	Dollars	−0.05	0.202
1984	Dollars	0.05	0.188
1984	Dollars	0.15	0.186
1984	Dollars	0.25	0.190
1984	Dollars	0.35	0.181
1984	Dollars	0.45	0.200
1984	Dollars	0.55	0.221
1984	Dollars	0.65	0.238
1984	Dollars	0.75	0.300
1984	Dollars	0.85	0.375
1984	Dollars	0.95	0.529
1984	Dollars	1.05	0.912
1984	Dollars	1.15	1.337
1984	Dollars	1.25	1.502
1984	Dollars	1.35	0.311
1984	Dollars	1.45	0.027
1984	Dollars	1.55	0.003
1984	Dollars	1.65	0.000
1984	Dollars	1.75	0.000
1984	Dollars	1.85	0.000
1984	Dollars	1.95	0.000
1984	Dollars	2.05	0.000
1984	Dollars	2.15	0.000
1984	Dollars	2.25	0.000
1984	Dollars	2.35	0.000
1984	Dollars	2.45	0.000
1986	Donors	−2.45	0.000
1986	Donors	−2.35	0.000
1986	Donors	−2.25	0.000
1986	Donors	−2.15	0.000
1986	Donors	−2.05	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.95	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.85	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.75	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.65	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.55	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.45	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.35	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.25	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.15	0.009
1986	Donors	−1.05	0.055
1986	Donors	−0.95	0.228
1986	Donors	−0.85	0.366
1986	Donors	−0.75	0.427
1986	Donors	−0.65	0.453
1986	Donors	−0.55	0.426
1986	Donors	−0.45	0.379
1986	Donors	−0.35	0.348
1986	Donors	−0.25	0.293
1986	Donors	−0.15	0.280
1986	Donors	−0.05	0.266
1986	Donors	0.05	0.255
1986	Donors	0.15	0.240
1986	Donors	0.25	0.240
1986	Donors	0.35	0.257
1986	Donors	0.45	0.279
1986	Donors	0.55	0.293
1986	Donors	0.65	0.334
1986	Donors	0.75	0.400
1986	Donors	0.85	0.478
1986	Donors	0.95	0.602
1986	Donors	1.05	0.806
1986	Donors	1.15	0.945
1986	Donors	1.25	0.942
1986	Donors	1.35	0.339
1986	Donors	1.45	0.055
1986	Donors	1.55	0.006
1986	Donors	1.65	0.001
1986	Donors	1.75	0.000
1986	Donors	1.85	0.000
1986	Donors	1.95	0.000
1986	Donors	2.05	0.000
1986	Donors	2.15	0.000
1986	Donors	2.25	0.000
1986	Donors	2.35	0.000
1986	Donors	2.45	0.000
1986	Dollars	−2.45	0.000
1986	Dollars	−2.35	0.000
1986	Dollars	−2.25	0.000
1986	Dollars	−2.15	0.000
1986	Dollars	−2.05	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.95	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.85	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.75	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.65	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.55	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.45	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.35	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.25	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.15	0.009
1986	Dollars	−1.05	0.055
1986	Dollars	−0.95	0.208
1986	Dollars	−0.85	0.391
1986	Dollars	−0.75	0.428
1986	Dollars	−0.65	0.439
1986	Dollars	−0.55	0.394
1986	Dollars	−0.45	0.354
1986	Dollars	−0.35	0.289
1986	Dollars	−0.25	0.251
1986	Dollars	−0.15	0.234
1986	Dollars	−0.05	0.228
1986	Dollars	0.05	0.214
1986	Dollars	0.15	0.220
1986	Dollars	0.25	0.202
1986	Dollars	0.35	0.216
1986	Dollars	0.45	0.242
1986	Dollars	0.55	0.266
1986	Dollars	0.65	0.282
1986	Dollars	0.75	0.342
1986	Dollars	0.85	0.427
1986	Dollars	0.95	0.588
1986	Dollars	1.05	0.925
1986	Dollars	1.15	1.211
1986	Dollars	1.25	1.253
1986	Dollars	1.35	0.294
1986	Dollars	1.45	0.033
1986	Dollars	1.55	0.003
1986	Dollars	1.65	0.000
1986	Dollars	1.75	0.000
1986	Dollars	1.85	0.000
1986	Dollars	1.95	0.000
1986	Dollars	2.05	0.000
1986	Dollars	2.15	0.000
1986	Dollars	2.25	0.000
1986	Dollars	2.35	0.000
1986	Dollars	2.45	0.000
1988	Donors	−2.45	0.000
1988	Donors	−2.35	0.000
1988	Donors	−2.25	0.000
1988	Donors	−2.15	0.000
1988	Donors	−2.05	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.95	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.85	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.75	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.65	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.55	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.45	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.35	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.25	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.15	0.011
1988	Donors	−1.05	0.078
1988	Donors	−0.95	0.345
1988	Donors	−0.85	0.478
1988	Donors	−0.75	0.516
1988	Donors	−0.65	0.502
1988	Donors	−0.55	0.473
1988	Donors	−0.45	0.404
1988	Donors	−0.35	0.353
1988	Donors	−0.25	0.299
1988	Donors	−0.15	0.287
1988	Donors	−0.05	0.255
1988	Donors	0.05	0.243
1988	Donors	0.15	0.233
1988	Donors	0.25	0.239
1988	Donors	0.35	0.242
1988	Donors	0.45	0.263
1988	Donors	0.55	0.282
1988	Donors	0.65	0.318
1988	Donors	0.75	0.371
1988	Donors	0.85	0.444
1988	Donors	0.95	0.573
1988	Donors	1.05	0.722
1988	Donors	1.15	0.838
1988	Donors	1.25	0.818
1988	Donors	1.35	0.333
1988	Donors	1.45	0.070
1988	Donors	1.55	0.009
1988	Donors	1.65	0.001
1988	Donors	1.75	0.000
1988	Donors	1.85	0.000
1988	Donors	1.95	0.000
1988	Donors	2.05	0.000
1988	Donors	2.15	0.000
1988	Donors	2.25	0.000
1988	Donors	2.35	0.000
1988	Donors	2.45	0.000
1988	Dollars	−2.45	0.000
1988	Dollars	−2.35	0.000
1988	Dollars	−2.25	0.000
1988	Dollars	−2.15	0.000
1988	Dollars	−2.05	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.95	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.85	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.75	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.65	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.55	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.45	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.35	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.25	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.15	0.009
1988	Dollars	−1.05	0.061
1988	Dollars	−0.95	0.291
1988	Dollars	−0.85	0.474
1988	Dollars	−0.75	0.504
1988	Dollars	−0.65	0.492
1988	Dollars	−0.55	0.442
1988	Dollars	−0.45	0.370
1988	Dollars	−0.35	0.325
1988	Dollars	−0.25	0.263
1988	Dollars	−0.15	0.243
1988	Dollars	−0.05	0.221
1988	Dollars	0.05	0.224
1988	Dollars	0.15	0.215
1988	Dollars	0.25	0.200
1988	Dollars	0.35	0.235
1988	Dollars	0.45	0.237
1988	Dollars	0.55	0.253
1988	Dollars	0.65	0.277
1988	Dollars	0.75	0.338
1988	Dollars	0.85	0.420
1988	Dollars	0.95	0.589
1988	Dollars	1.05	0.831
1988	Dollars	1.15	1.047
1988	Dollars	1.25	1.094
1988	Dollars	1.35	0.304
1988	Dollars	1.45	0.037
1988	Dollars	1.55	0.003
1988	Dollars	1.65	0.000
1988	Dollars	1.75	0.000
1988	Dollars	1.85	0.000
1988	Dollars	1.95	0.000
1988	Dollars	2.05	0.000
1988	Dollars	2.15	0.000
1988	Dollars	2.25	0.000
1988	Dollars	2.35	0.000
1988	Dollars	2.45	0.000

Showing the first 500 of 2300 rows.

The area under the curves passes from the right of zero to the left: 34.9% of donors were left of zero in 1980 and 75.7% in 2024, and the share within 0.75 of zero fell from 45.6% to 6.1%. Each ridge is one election cycle, 1980 at the top and 2024 at the bottom, and its height is the density of donors per unit of CFscore, on one scale for all ridges. DIME assigns every donor one score for the whole career, so the changing shape is a changing set of active donors. The header names the parties because the median Democratic candidate of 2024 scored −0.96 and the median Republican candidate +1.35; blue and red mark the side of zero of a donor's score and not the donor's party.Note: Scores beyond the ends of the axis are counted in the end bins.Note: Dollars are itemized contributions in real 2024 dollars. Each donor's total in a cycle is capped so that a few very large donors do not set the shape.Source: Stanford DIME v4.0 (Bonica), election cycles 1980-2024; full counts of itemized individual donors, no weights

The second view of the figure weights each donor by itemized dollars. Weighted that way, the left side holds 35.9% of dollars in 1980 and 67.4% in 2024, a smaller move than the move in the headcount.

Figure 2 follows the share of active donors within 0.25 of zero. It was 11.8% in 1980, 13.0% in 1986, 9.6% in 2002, 7.7% in 2004, 6.2% in 2008, 3.4% in 2016, 1.5% in 2020 and 1.2% in 2024. The change from 1980 to 2024 is −10.6 points, and −8.4 of it comes after 2002. Measured against its own level, the share fell by 26% from 1986 to 2002, by 88% from 2002 to 2024 and by 90% from 1980 to 2024. The split at 2002 is descriptive, since 2002 has the lowest share of the cycles up to then and every later cycle is lower, and no test for a break was run. After 2002 the share rises in 3 cycles, 2006, 2010 and 2014, by no more than 0.3 points in any of them. The Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 took effect the day after the 2002 general election and raised the limit on an individual's gift to a candidate from 2003 on [3], so 2004 was the first full cycle under it, and this chapter does not separate its effect from other changes.

Figure 2

The share of donors near the center fell from 13.0% in 1986 to 9.6% in 2002, then to 1.2% in 2024

Percent of active reliable donors with a CFscore within 0.25 of zero, by election cycle

Show data

Data for The share of donors near the center fell from 13.0% in 1986 to 9.6% in 2002, then to 1.2% in 2024
Election cycle	Share within 0.25 of zero	Active donors
1980	11.8%	31,138
1982	12.3%	25,207
1984	12.0%	39,460
1986	13.0%	45,211
1988	12.7%	70,902
1990	11.3%	111,512
1992	11.0%	167,283
1994	10.7%	197,604
1996	10.7%	297,838
1998	10.1%	470,028
2000	10.0%	598,971
2002	9.6%	794,413
2004	7.7%	1,033,327
2006	7.8%	1,142,451
2008	6.2%	1,425,885
2010	6.6%	1,409,984
2012	4.6%	1,805,776
2014	4.8%	1,597,010
2016	3.4%	1,978,112
2018	2.5%	2,161,252
2020	1.5%	3,483,649
2022	1.4%	3,082,400
2024	1.2%	2,533,588

The line falls slowly until 2002 and faster after it, and every cycle from 2004 on is below every cycle through 2002. It plots the percent of active reliable donors with a CFscore within 0.25 of zero in each election cycle, and the dashed rule marks 2002.Note: These are full counts of itemized donors, so the line carries no sampling interval. It does not carry the estimation error of each CFscore either.Note: After 2002 the line rises in 3 cycles (2006, 2010 and 2014), by at most 0.3 points. The split at 2002 is descriptive: 2002 has the lowest share of the cycles up to then, and no test for a break was run.Source: Stanford DIME v4.0 (Bonica), election cycles 1980-2024; full counts of itemized individual donors, no weights

The pool changed in size as well as in shape. The 2,533,588 reliable donors of 2024 are 81 times the 31,138 of 1980. The count of donors near zero rose from 3,678 in 1980 to 29,446 in 2024, or 8 times, after a peak of 92,461 in 2010, so the share fell while the count rose. Weighted by itemized dollars, with each donor's total in a cycle capped at $1 million, the near-zero share was 12.2% in 1980, 11.7% in 2002 and 3.4% in 2024, and Figure 5 shows it under other caps.

Donors who joined account for most of the fall

Because DIME assigns each donor one score, the share near zero can change between two cycles in only one way: donors join the pool or leave it, and the donors active in both cycles keep the same score. Figure 3 splits each change between consecutive cycles into donors who left and donors who joined, and adds the steps from 1980 to 2024. Joiners changed the share by −11.2 points and leavers by +0.6 points, which sum to the −10.6 points of the whole period.The split depends on the order of accounting. Removing leavers first credits joiners with −12.8 points and leavers with +2.2. Adding joiners first credits joiners with −9.6 and leavers with −1.1. The figure shows the average of the two orders. A joiner is active in a cycle and not in the one before, which includes donors who return after a gap: 56.6% of joiners were giving for the first time. Online platforms for small gifts, ActBlue (launched in 2004) and WinRed (launched in 2019), may account for part of the entry. The DIME files hold no recipients and no unitemized gifts, so this chapter cannot test how much.

Figure 3

Donors who joined the pool account for most of the fall in the near-center share

Change in the percent of active reliable donors within 0.25 of zero, 1980 to 2024, split into donors who left and donors who joined between consecutive cycles

Show data

Data for Donors who joined the pool account for most of the fall in the near-center share
kind	step	value
start	Pool in 1980	11.81
delta	Donors who left	0.554
delta	Donors who joined	−11.20
end	Pool in 2024	1.16

The start bar is the 1980 share and the end bar is the 2024 share. Donors who joined between consecutive cycles change the share by −11.2 points, and donors who left change it by +0.6 points. The split averages two orders of accounting: with leavers removed first, joiners account for −12.8 points, and with joiners added first −9.6 points.Note: Joined means active in a cycle and not in the cycle before, so it includes donors who return after a gap; left is the reverse. Donors active in both cycles keep their score, so they change the share only through their weight in the pool.Note: The steps are summed over the cycle-to-cycle changes from 1980 to 2024. Full counts: no sampling interval.Source: Stanford DIME v4.0 (Bonica), election cycles 1980-2024; full counts of itemized individual donors, no weights

The donors of 1980 have mostly left the pool. Of the 31,138 reliable donors active in 1980, 5,509, or 17.7%, were active in 2024 as well. Figure 4 groups donors by the cycle of their first itemized gift. The near-center share was 11.8% for the donors of 1980, 8.6% for those who first gave in 2000, 1.2% for 2012 and 0.24% for 2024. The groups that first gave from 1980 to 1988 had between 11.8% and 13.4% near the center, no group that first gave from 1990 on exceeds 10.1%, and no group that first gave from 2010 on exceeds 3.0%. The order is not strict, and the figure shows the cycles in which a group sits nearer the center than the group before it.

Figure 4

Every group of donors that first gave from 2010 on has 3.0% or less near the center, against 11.8% to 13.4% for the groups of the 1980s

Reliable donors grouped by the cycle of their first itemized gift: percent within 0.25 of zero (first and second views) and share of each cycle's active pool (third view)

Show data

Data for Every group of donors that first gave from 2010 on has 3.0% or less near the center, against 11.8% to 13.4% for the groups of the 1980s
View	Series	Cycle	Share (%)	Donors in the group or pool
first	2 or more	1980	13.4	57,193
first	2 or more	1982	12.6	22,786
first	2 or more	1984	13.4	33,569
first	2 or more	1986	14.4	33,181
first	2 or more	1988	15.0	57,515
first	2 or more	1990	11.2	113,379
first	2 or more	1992	11.6	145,792
first	2 or more	1994	11.2	143,470
first	2 or more	1996	11.1	252,535
first	2 or more	1998	10.0	448,844
first	2 or more	2000	9.7	455,270
first	2 or more	2002	8.9	573,418
first	2 or more	2004	5.8	767,428
first	2 or more	2006	6.9	654,817
first	2 or more	2008	4.4	963,119
first	2 or more	2010	5.3	661,868
first	2 or more	2012	2.7	997,742
first	2 or more	2014	4.0	658,594
first	2 or more	2016	1.7	1,297,118
first	2 or more	2018	1.1	1,198,890
first	2 or more	2020	0.5	4,346,273
first	2 or more	2022	1.1	971,049
first	2 or more	2024	1.0	593,408
first	8 or more	1980	11.8	31,138
first	8 or more	1982	12.1	11,521
first	8 or more	1984	12.1	16,963
first	8 or more	1986	13.4	17,042
first	8 or more	1988	12.7	29,382
first	8 or more	1990	10.0	57,044
first	8 or more	1992	10.0	75,594
first	8 or more	1994	9.7	72,570
first	8 or more	1996	10.1	123,517
first	8 or more	1998	9.0	208,027
first	8 or more	2000	8.6	206,419
first	8 or more	2002	7.5	247,539
first	8 or more	2004	4.3	325,622
first	8 or more	2006	4.9	256,237
first	8 or more	2008	2.6	365,960
first	8 or more	2010	3.0	232,556
first	8 or more	2012	1.2	387,766
first	8 or more	2014	1.5	210,428
first	8 or more	2016	0.5	442,260
first	8 or more	2018	0.3	441,519
first	8 or more	2020	0.1	868,613
first	8 or more	2022	0.3	139,196
first	8 or more	2024	0.2	65,445
first	16 or more	1980	11.2	22,747
first	16 or more	1982	11.5	8,088
first	16 or more	1984	11.1	12,098
first	16 or more	1986	12.3	12,014
first	16 or more	1988	11.7	20,702
first	16 or more	1990	9.2	39,048
first	16 or more	1992	9.0	50,543
first	16 or more	1994	8.7	46,220
first	16 or more	1996	9.1	74,096
first	16 or more	1998	8.0	119,247
first	16 or more	2000	7.3	110,534
first	16 or more	2002	6.0	123,280
first	16 or more	2004	3.0	170,687
first	16 or more	2006	3.3	123,728
first	16 or more	2008	1.5	179,580
first	16 or more	2010	1.7	106,925
first	16 or more	2012	0.6	191,626
first	16 or more	2014	0.8	99,944
first	16 or more	2016	0.3	183,257
first	16 or more	2018	0.2	197,639
first	16 or more	2020	0.1	287,030
first	16 or more	2022	0.2	47,621
first	16 or more	2024	0.1	18,907
tenure	All active	1980	11.8	31,138
tenure	All active	1982	12.3	25,207
tenure	All active	1984	12.0	39,460
tenure	All active	1986	13.0	45,211
tenure	All active	1988	12.7	70,902
tenure	All active	1990	11.3	111,512
tenure	All active	1992	11.0	167,283
tenure	All active	1994	10.7	197,604
tenure	All active	1996	10.7	297,838
tenure	All active	1998	10.1	470,028
tenure	All active	2000	10.0	598,971
tenure	All active	2002	9.6	794,413
tenure	All active	2004	7.7	1,033,327
tenure	All active	2006	7.8	1,142,451
tenure	All active	2008	6.2	1,425,885
tenure	All active	2010	6.6	1,409,984
tenure	All active	2012	4.6	1,805,776
tenure	All active	2014	4.8	1,597,010
tenure	All active	2016	3.4	1,978,112
tenure	All active	2018	2.5	2,161,252
tenure	All active	2020	1.5	3,483,649
tenure	All active	2022	1.4	3,082,400
tenure	All active	2024	1.2	2,533,588
tenure	First-time	1980	11.8	31,138
tenure	First-time	1982	12.1	11,521
tenure	First-time	1984	12.1	16,963
tenure	First-time	1986	13.4	17,042
tenure	First-time	1988	12.7	29,382
tenure	First-time	1990	10.0	57,044
tenure	First-time	1992	10.0	75,594
tenure	First-time	1994	9.7	72,570
tenure	First-time	1996	10.1	123,517
tenure	First-time	1998	9.0	208,027
tenure	First-time	2000	8.6	206,419
tenure	First-time	2002	7.5	247,539
tenure	First-time	2004	4.3	325,622
tenure	First-time	2006	4.9	256,237
tenure	First-time	2008	2.6	365,960
tenure	First-time	2010	3.0	232,556
tenure	First-time	2012	1.2	387,766
tenure	First-time	2014	1.5	210,428
tenure	First-time	2016	0.5	442,260
tenure	First-time	2018	0.3	441,519
tenure	First-time	2020	0.1	868,613
tenure	First-time	2022	0.3	139,196
tenure	First-time	2024	0.2	65,445
tenure	Repeat	1982	12.4	13,686
tenure	Repeat	1984	12.0	22,497
tenure	Repeat	1986	12.7	28,169
tenure	Repeat	1988	12.7	41,520
tenure	Repeat	1990	12.8	54,468
tenure	Repeat	1992	11.8	91,689
tenure	Repeat	1994	11.2	125,034
tenure	Repeat	1996	11.1	174,321
tenure	Repeat	1998	11.0	262,001
tenure	Repeat	2000	10.8	392,552
tenure	Repeat	2002	10.5	546,874
tenure	Repeat	2004	9.3	707,705
tenure	Repeat	2006	8.7	886,214
tenure	Repeat	2008	7.5	1,059,925
tenure	Repeat	2010	7.3	1,177,428
tenure	Repeat	2012	5.5	1,418,010
tenure	Repeat	2014	5.3	1,386,582
tenure	Repeat	2016	4.2	1,535,852
tenure	Repeat	2018	3.1	1,719,733
tenure	Repeat	2020	2.0	2,615,036
tenure	Repeat	2022	1.4	2,943,204
tenure	Repeat	2024	1.2	2,468,143
pool	1980s	1980	100.0	31,138
pool	1980s	1982	100.0	25,207
pool	1980s	1984	100.0	39,460
pool	1980s	1986	100.0	45,211
pool	1980s	1988	100.0	70,902
pool	1980s	1990	48.8	111,512
pool	1980s	1992	37.9	167,283
pool	1980s	1994	29.9	197,604
pool	1980s	1996	21.7	297,838
pool	1980s	1998	14.2	470,028
pool	1980s	2000	12.0	598,971
pool	1980s	2002	8.7	794,413
pool	1980s	2004	6.7	1,033,327
pool	1980s	2006	5.7	1,142,451
pool	1980s	2008	4.5	1,425,885
pool	1980s	2010	4.1	1,409,984
pool	1980s	2012	3.0	1,805,776
pool	1980s	2014	3.0	1,597,010
pool	1980s	2016	2.2	1,978,112
pool	1980s	2018	1.7	2,161,252
pool	1980s	2020	1.1	3,483,649
pool	1980s	2022	1.0	3,082,400
pool	1980s	2024	0.9	2,533,588
pool	1990s	1990	51.2	111,512
pool	1990s	1992	62.1	167,283
pool	1990s	1994	70.1	197,604
pool	1990s	1996	78.3	297,838
pool	1990s	1998	85.8	470,028
pool	1990s	2000	53.5	598,971
pool	1990s	2002	44.5	794,413
pool	1990s	2004	33.9	1,033,327
pool	1990s	2006	30.1	1,142,451
pool	1990s	2008	23.2	1,425,885
pool	1990s	2010	22.5	1,409,984
pool	1990s	2012	16.7	1,805,776
pool	1990s	2014	16.3	1,597,010
pool	1990s	2016	12.1	1,978,112
pool	1990s	2018	9.7	2,161,252
pool	1990s	2020	6.4	3,483,649
pool	1990s	2022	6.0	3,082,400
pool	1990s	2024	5.5	2,533,588
pool	2000s	2000	34.5	598,971
pool	2000s	2002	46.7	794,413
pool	2000s	2004	59.3	1,033,327
pool	2000s	2006	64.2	1,142,451
pool	2000s	2008	72.3	1,425,885
pool	2000s	2010	56.9	1,409,984
pool	2000s	2012	49.9	1,805,776
pool	2000s	2014	45.2	1,597,010
pool	2000s	2016	37.5	1,978,112
pool	2000s	2018	31.0	2,161,252
pool	2000s	2020	23.9	3,483,649
pool	2000s	2022	22.1	3,082,400
pool	2000s	2024	21.3	2,533,588
pool	2010s	2010	16.5	1,409,984
pool	2010s	2012	30.4	1,805,776
pool	2010s	2014	35.5	1,597,010
pool	2010s	2016	48.2	1,978,112
pool	2010s	2018	57.5	2,161,252
pool	2010s	2020	43.8	3,483,649
pool	2010s	2022	41.6	3,082,400
pool	2010s	2024	40.1	2,533,588
pool	2020s	2020	24.9	3,483,649
pool	2020s	2022	29.3	3,082,400
pool	2020s	2024	32.1	2,533,588

Each point is the share of donors whose first itemized gift came in that cycle who are within 0.25 of zero, counting each donor once. The 1980 group is every donor active in DIME's first cycle. The share is 11.8% for that group, 8.6% for the 2000 group, 1.2% for 2012 and 0.24% for 2024. With a looser filter of 2 or more recipients the 2024 group's share is 0.96%.Note: A donor first seen in 1980 may have given before 1980, because DIME starts in 1980, so the 1980 group includes donors who first gave earlier.Note: The reliable flag needs a minimum number of distinct recipients over the career, so a donor first seen in 2024 counts only after reaching that number within one cycle. Only 2.7% of the donors first seen in 2024 do, against 16.1% of those first seen in 2012.Source: Stanford DIME v4.0 (Bonica), election cycles 1980-2024; full counts of itemized individual donors, no weights

The second view compares donors giving for the first time with repeat donors. In 2008, repeat donors were 7.5% near the center and first-time donors 2.6%, and in 2024 the figures were 1.19% and 0.24%. Repeat donors fall as well. With one score per donor, the repeat pool changes only through the mix of earlier groups that stay active, and the third view shows that mix: by 2024, 72.2% of active reliable donors had first given in 2010 or later and 0.9% from 1980 to 1988. This chapter does not test which groups account for the fall among repeat donors.

The group of 2024 comes with a caution about selection. A donor counts as reliable only after giving to 8 recipients, so a donor first seen in 2024 must reach that number within one cycle to appear at all. Of the donors first seen in 2024, 2.7% do, against 16.1% of those first seen in 2012, and the 65,445 reliable newcomers are 2.6% of the 2024 pool, against 24.9% of the 2020 pool. The count of reliable newcomers fell from 868,613 in 2020 to 139,196 in 2022, so the group of 2022 is affected as well. A single checkout on a platform that splits a gift among several committees could reach the threshold at once, and this chapter does not test how often that happens. Under a filter of 2 recipients the 2024 group has 0.96% near the center, against 13.4% for the 1980 group under the same filter, so the lower share among newer donors does not depend on the recipient filter.

The fall holds across bands, filters and caps

The width of the center and the minimum of 8 recipients are conventions, and Figure 5 varies each of them. A center of 0.10 on each side of zero gives 4.8% in 1980 and 0.4% in 2024, and a center of 0.50 gives 26.7% and 2.7%. Tightening the recipient filter to 16 recipients gives 11.2% and 1.3%, and counting every donor with a score, including those whose score rests on few recipients, gives 10.5% and 1.7%. The levels depend on the choices and the direction does not.

Figure 5

Narrower and wider center bands all show a fall from the 1980s to the 2020s

Percent of active reliable donors within a band of zero, by election cycle; one choice varied per view

Show data

Data for The fall in the near-center share holds for every center band and recipient filter checked, and for dollars once each donor is capped
Choice varied	Series	Election cycle	Share (%)	Denominator
band	Band 0.10	1980	4.8	31,138
band	Band 0.10	1982	5.1	25,207
band	Band 0.10	1984	4.8	39,460
band	Band 0.10	1986	5.2	45,211
band	Band 0.10	1988	5.0	70,902
band	Band 0.10	1990	4.4	111,512
band	Band 0.10	1992	4.3	167,283
band	Band 0.10	1994	4.1	197,604
band	Band 0.10	1996	4.1	297,838
band	Band 0.10	1998	3.9	470,028
band	Band 0.10	2000	3.9	598,971
band	Band 0.10	2002	3.7	794,413
band	Band 0.10	2004	3.0	1,033,327
band	Band 0.10	2006	3.0	1,142,451
band	Band 0.10	2008	2.4	1,425,885
band	Band 0.10	2010	2.5	1,409,984
band	Band 0.10	2012	1.7	1,805,776
band	Band 0.10	2014	1.8	1,597,010
band	Band 0.10	2016	1.3	1,978,112
band	Band 0.10	2018	1.0	2,161,252
band	Band 0.10	2020	0.6	3,483,649
band	Band 0.10	2022	0.5	3,082,400
band	Band 0.10	2024	0.4	2,533,588
band	Band 0.15	1980	7.0	31,138
band	Band 0.15	1982	7.5	25,207
band	Band 0.15	1984	7.2	39,460
band	Band 0.15	1986	7.7	45,211
band	Band 0.15	1988	7.5	70,902
band	Band 0.15	1990	6.6	111,512
band	Band 0.15	1992	6.5	167,283
band	Band 0.15	1994	6.2	197,604
band	Band 0.15	1996	6.2	297,838
band	Band 0.15	1998	5.9	470,028
band	Band 0.15	2000	5.8	598,971
band	Band 0.15	2002	5.6	794,413
band	Band 0.15	2004	4.5	1,033,327
band	Band 0.15	2006	4.6	1,142,451
band	Band 0.15	2008	3.6	1,425,885
band	Band 0.15	2010	3.8	1,409,984
band	Band 0.15	2012	2.7	1,805,776
band	Band 0.15	2014	2.8	1,597,010
band	Band 0.15	2016	2.0	1,978,112
band	Band 0.15	2018	1.5	2,161,252
band	Band 0.15	2020	0.9	3,483,649
band	Band 0.15	2022	0.8	3,082,400
band	Band 0.15	2024	0.7	2,533,588
band	Band 0.25	1980	11.8	31,138
band	Band 0.25	1982	12.3	25,207
band	Band 0.25	1984	12.0	39,460
band	Band 0.25	1986	13.0	45,211
band	Band 0.25	1988	12.7	70,902
band	Band 0.25	1990	11.3	111,512
band	Band 0.25	1992	11.0	167,283
band	Band 0.25	1994	10.7	197,604
band	Band 0.25	1996	10.7	297,838
band	Band 0.25	1998	10.1	470,028
band	Band 0.25	2000	10.0	598,971
band	Band 0.25	2002	9.6	794,413
band	Band 0.25	2004	7.7	1,033,327
band	Band 0.25	2006	7.8	1,142,451
band	Band 0.25	2008	6.2	1,425,885
band	Band 0.25	2010	6.6	1,409,984
band	Band 0.25	2012	4.6	1,805,776
band	Band 0.25	2014	4.8	1,597,010
band	Band 0.25	2016	3.4	1,978,112
band	Band 0.25	2018	2.5	2,161,252
band	Band 0.25	2020	1.5	3,483,649
band	Band 0.25	2022	1.4	3,082,400
band	Band 0.25	2024	1.2	2,533,588
band	Band 0.35	1980	17.3	31,138
band	Band 0.35	1982	17.9	25,207
band	Band 0.35	1984	17.5	39,460
band	Band 0.35	1986	18.6	45,211
band	Band 0.35	1988	18.4	70,902
band	Band 0.35	1990	16.5	111,512
band	Band 0.35	1992	16.0	167,283
band	Band 0.35	1994	15.7	197,604
band	Band 0.35	1996	15.6	297,838
band	Band 0.35	1998	14.9	470,028
band	Band 0.35	2000	14.7	598,971
band	Band 0.35	2002	14.1	794,413
band	Band 0.35	2004	11.3	1,033,327
band	Band 0.35	2006	11.5	1,142,451
band	Band 0.35	2008	9.2	1,425,885
band	Band 0.35	2010	9.6	1,409,984
band	Band 0.35	2012	6.8	1,805,776
band	Band 0.35	2014	7.1	1,597,010
band	Band 0.35	2016	5.0	1,978,112
band	Band 0.35	2018	3.7	2,161,252
band	Band 0.35	2020	2.3	3,483,649
band	Band 0.35	2022	2.1	3,082,400
band	Band 0.35	2024	1.7	2,533,588
band	Band 0.50	1980	26.7	31,138
band	Band 0.50	1982	27.4	25,207
band	Band 0.50	1984	26.7	39,460
band	Band 0.50	1986	28.3	45,211
band	Band 0.50	1988	28.1	70,902
band	Band 0.50	1990	25.9	111,512
band	Band 0.50	1992	24.8	167,283
band	Band 0.50	1994	24.4	197,604
band	Band 0.50	1996	24.1	297,838
band	Band 0.50	1998	23.6	470,028
band	Band 0.50	2000	23.2	598,971
band	Band 0.50	2002	22.2	794,413
band	Band 0.50	2004	17.8	1,033,327
band	Band 0.50	2006	18.2	1,142,451
band	Band 0.50	2008	14.5	1,425,885
band	Band 0.50	2010	15.1	1,409,984
band	Band 0.50	2012	10.7	1,805,776
band	Band 0.50	2014	11.2	1,597,010
band	Band 0.50	2016	8.0	1,978,112
band	Band 0.50	2018	6.0	2,161,252
band	Band 0.50	2020	3.7	3,483,649
band	Band 0.50	2022	3.3	3,082,400
band	Band 0.50	2024	2.7	2,533,588
recipients	All donors	1980	10.5	154,785
recipients	All donors	1982	11.3	86,670
recipients	All donors	1984	11.3	131,200
recipients	All donors	1986	13.2	133,774
recipients	All donors	1988	11.4	214,446
recipients	All donors	1990	10.7	380,190
recipients	All donors	1992	10.4	530,583
recipients	All donors	1994	9.9	607,066
recipients	All donors	1996	9.6	975,342
recipients	All donors	1998	8.9	1,682,818
recipients	All donors	2000	9.7	1,848,013
recipients	All donors	2002	9.8	2,473,213
recipients	All donors	2004	7.6	3,033,682
recipients	All donors	2006	8.4	3,259,135
recipients	All donors	2008	6.3	4,076,013
recipients	All donors	2010	7.1	3,815,085
recipients	All donors	2012	5.0	4,663,505
recipients	All donors	2014	5.6	4,121,821
recipients	All donors	2016	3.5	5,905,547
recipients	All donors	2018	3.0	5,021,757
recipients	All donors	2020	1.0	14,302,588
recipients	All donors	2022	1.3	8,692,636
recipients	All donors	2024	1.7	7,043,771
recipients_table	2 or more	1980	13.4	57,193
recipients_table	2 or more	1982	12.6	43,044
recipients_table	2 or more	1984	12.8	67,054
recipients_table	2 or more	1986	13.8	73,140
recipients_table	2 or more	1988	14.3	117,042
recipients_table	2 or more	1990	12.2	188,933
recipients_table	2 or more	1992	12.0	279,329
recipients_table	2 or more	1994	11.5	319,777
recipients_table	2 or more	1996	11.3	494,892
recipients_table	2 or more	1998	10.6	811,919
recipients_table	2 or more	2000	10.5	1,000,415
recipients_table	2 or more	2002	10.1	1,330,550
recipients_table	2 or more	2004	7.9	1,747,923
recipients_table	2 or more	2006	8.4	1,877,694
recipients_table	2 or more	2008	6.5	2,439,648
recipients_table	2 or more	2010	7.2	2,300,985
recipients_table	2 or more	2012	4.9	2,988,603
recipients_table	2 or more	2014	5.5	2,604,742
recipients_table	2 or more	2016	3.6	3,494,075
recipients_table	2 or more	2018	2.8	3,568,065
recipients_table	2 or more	2020	1.4	8,698,567
recipients_table	2 or more	2022	1.4	6,146,958
recipients_table	2 or more	2024	1.3	5,034,842
recipients_table	4 or more	1980	12.6	41,298
recipients_table	4 or more	1982	12.5	33,193
recipients_table	4 or more	1984	12.5	52,204
recipients_table	4 or more	1986	13.4	58,793
recipients_table	4 or more	1988	13.4	92,400
recipients_table	4 or more	1990	11.8	146,931
recipients_table	4 or more	1992	11.6	219,442
recipients_table	4 or more	1994	11.1	258,365
recipients_table	4 or more	1996	11.1	399,999
recipients_table	4 or more	1998	10.5	648,297
recipients_table	4 or more	2000	10.4	831,167
recipients_table	4 or more	2002	10.0	1,123,133
recipients_table	4 or more	2004	8.0	1,441,691
recipients_table	4 or more	2006	8.3	1,611,590
recipients_table	4 or more	2008	6.6	2,032,932
recipients_table	4 or more	2010	7.0	1,982,381
recipients_table	4 or more	2012	4.8	2,559,273
recipients_table	4 or more	2014	5.2	2,197,539
recipients_table	4 or more	2016	3.5	2,875,282
recipients_table	4 or more	2018	2.6	2,992,976
recipients_table	4 or more	2020	1.4	5,984,589
recipients_table	4 or more	2022	1.3	4,732,218
recipients_table	4 or more	2024	1.2	3,824,633
recipients	8 or more	1980	11.8	31,138
recipients	8 or more	1982	12.3	25,207
recipients	8 or more	1984	12.0	39,460
recipients	8 or more	1986	13.0	45,211
recipients	8 or more	1988	12.7	70,902
recipients	8 or more	1990	11.3	111,512
recipients	8 or more	1992	11.0	167,283
recipients	8 or more	1994	10.7	197,604
recipients	8 or more	1996	10.7	297,838
recipients	8 or more	1998	10.1	470,028
recipients	8 or more	2000	10.0	598,971
recipients	8 or more	2002	9.6	794,413
recipients	8 or more	2004	7.7	1,033,327
recipients	8 or more	2006	7.8	1,142,451
recipients	8 or more	2008	6.2	1,425,885
recipients	8 or more	2010	6.6	1,409,984
recipients	8 or more	2012	4.6	1,805,776
recipients	8 or more	2014	4.8	1,597,010
recipients	8 or more	2016	3.4	1,978,112
recipients	8 or more	2018	2.5	2,161,252
recipients	8 or more	2020	1.5	3,483,649
recipients	8 or more	2022	1.4	3,082,400
recipients	8 or more	2024	1.2	2,533,588
recipients_table	12 or more	1980	11.4	26,188
recipients_table	12 or more	1982	11.9	21,167
recipients_table	12 or more	1984	11.6	33,259
recipients_table	12 or more	1986	12.5	38,114
recipients_table	12 or more	1988	12.2	59,899
recipients_table	12 or more	1990	11.0	93,515
recipients_table	12 or more	1992	10.5	139,520
recipients_table	12 or more	1994	10.3	163,612
recipients_table	12 or more	1996	10.3	242,380
recipients_table	12 or more	1998	9.8	374,206
recipients_table	12 or more	2000	9.6	472,789
recipients_table	12 or more	2002	9.1	614,504
recipients_table	12 or more	2004	7.4	798,766
recipients_table	12 or more	2006	7.5	876,096
recipients_table	12 or more	2008	6.0	1,087,790
recipients_table	12 or more	2010	6.2	1,077,733
recipients_table	12 or more	2012	4.4	1,375,276
recipients_table	12 or more	2014	4.6	1,244,871
recipients_table	12 or more	2016	3.4	1,488,357
recipients_table	12 or more	2018	2.5	1,655,596
recipients_table	12 or more	2020	1.7	2,400,789
recipients_table	12 or more	2022	1.5	2,216,874
recipients_table	12 or more	2024	1.2	1,863,305
recipients	16 or more	1980	11.2	22,747
recipients	16 or more	1982	11.7	18,579
recipients	16 or more	1984	11.3	29,149
recipients	16 or more	1986	12.2	33,418
recipients	16 or more	1988	11.9	52,412
recipients	16 or more	1990	10.6	81,075
recipients	16 or more	1992	10.2	120,528
recipients	16 or more	1994	10.0	140,308
recipients	16 or more	1996	10.0	204,428
recipients	16 or more	1998	9.5	310,744
recipients	16 or more	2000	9.3	388,670
recipients	16 or more	2002	8.8	497,712
recipients	16 or more	2004	7.2	646,757
recipients	16 or more	2006	7.2	705,532
recipients	16 or more	2008	5.8	871,757
recipients	16 or more	2010	6.0	865,388
recipients	16 or more	2012	4.3	1,098,706
recipients	16 or more	2014	4.4	1,011,317
recipients	16 or more	2016	3.4	1,187,456
recipients	16 or more	2018	2.6	1,327,072
recipients	16 or more	2020	1.8	1,793,107
recipients	16 or more	2022	1.6	1,688,734
recipients	16 or more	2024	1.3	1,443,230
cap	Donors	1980	11.8	31,138
cap	Donors	1982	12.3	25,207
cap	Donors	1984	12.0	39,460
cap	Donors	1986	13.0	45,211
cap	Donors	1988	12.7	70,902
cap	Donors	1990	11.3	111,512
cap	Donors	1992	11.0	167,283
cap	Donors	1994	10.7	197,604
cap	Donors	1996	10.7	297,838
cap	Donors	1998	10.1	470,028
cap	Donors	2000	10.0	598,971
cap	Donors	2002	9.6	794,413
cap	Donors	2004	7.7	1,033,327
cap	Donors	2006	7.8	1,142,451
cap	Donors	2008	6.2	1,425,885
cap	Donors	2010	6.6	1,409,984
cap	Donors	2012	4.6	1,805,776
cap	Donors	2014	4.8	1,597,010
cap	Donors	2016	3.4	1,978,112
cap	Donors	2018	2.5	2,161,252
cap	Donors	2020	1.5	3,483,649
cap	Donors	2022	1.4	3,082,400
cap	Donors	2024	1.2	2,533,588
cap	No cap	1980	12.2	31,138
cap	No cap	1982	9.6	25,207
cap	No cap	1984	10.0	39,460
cap	No cap	1986	11.1	45,211
cap	No cap	1988	11.1	70,902
cap	No cap	1990	11.5	111,512
cap	No cap	1992	10.2	167,283
cap	No cap	1994	10.5	197,604
cap	No cap	1996	9.4	297,838
cap	No cap	1998	12.3	470,028
cap	No cap	2000	9.1	598,971
cap	No cap	2002	24.5	794,413
cap	No cap	2004	8.4	1,033,327
cap	No cap	2006	7.2	1,142,451
cap	No cap	2008	7.0	1,425,885
cap	No cap	2010	7.7	1,409,984
cap	No cap	2012	4.8	1,805,776
cap	No cap	2014	6.6	1,597,010
cap	No cap	2016	4.6	1,978,112
cap	No cap	2018	3.5	2,161,252
cap	No cap	2020	1.8	3,483,649
cap	No cap	2022	2.8	3,082,400
cap	No cap	2024	6.3	2,533,588
cap	Cap $10m	1980	12.2	31,138
cap	Cap $10m	1982	9.6	25,207
cap	Cap $10m	1984	10.0	39,460
cap	Cap $10m	1986	11.1	45,211
cap	Cap $10m	1988	11.1	70,902
cap	Cap $10m	1990	11.5	111,512
cap	Cap $10m	1992	10.2	167,283
cap	Cap $10m	1994	10.5	197,604
cap	Cap $10m	1996	9.4	297,838
cap	Cap $10m	1998	10.9	470,028
cap	Cap $10m	2000	9.1	598,971
cap	Cap $10m	2002	11.0	794,413
cap	Cap $10m	2004	8.5	1,033,327
cap	Cap $10m	2006	8.7	1,142,451
cap	Cap $10m	2008	7.0	1,425,885
cap	Cap $10m	2010	8.9	1,409,984
cap	Cap $10m	2012	5.4	1,805,776
cap	Cap $10m	2014	7.3	1,597,010
cap	Cap $10m	2016	6.0	1,978,112
cap	Cap $10m	2018	4.6	2,161,252
cap	Cap $10m	2020	2.4	3,483,649
cap	Cap $10m	2022	3.3	3,082,400
cap	Cap $10m	2024	3.6	2,533,588
cap	Cap $1m	1980	12.2	31,138
cap	Cap $1m	1982	9.6	25,207
cap	Cap $1m	1984	10.0	39,460
cap	Cap $1m	1986	11.1	45,211
cap	Cap $1m	1988	11.1	70,902
cap	Cap $1m	1990	11.5	111,512
cap	Cap $1m	1992	10.3	167,283
cap	Cap $1m	1994	10.5	197,604
cap	Cap $1m	1996	9.5	297,838
cap	Cap $1m	1998	11.0	470,028
cap	Cap $1m	2000	9.6	598,971
cap	Cap $1m	2002	11.7	794,413
cap	Cap $1m	2004	8.9	1,033,327
cap	Cap $1m	2006	9.6	1,142,451
cap	Cap $1m	2008	7.3	1,425,885
cap	Cap $1m	2010	9.3	1,409,984
cap	Cap $1m	2012	5.6	1,805,776
cap	Cap $1m	2014	7.7	1,597,010
cap	Cap $1m	2016	6.1	1,978,112
cap	Cap $1m	2018	4.8	2,161,252
cap	Cap $1m	2020	2.4	3,483,649
cap	Cap $1m	2022	3.4	3,082,400
cap	Cap $1m	2024	3.4	2,533,588
cap	Cap $100k	1980	12.3	31,138
cap	Cap $100k	1982	9.8	25,207
cap	Cap $100k	1984	10.1	39,460
cap	Cap $100k	1986	11.2	45,211
cap	Cap $100k	1988	11.2	70,902
cap	Cap $100k	1990	11.5	111,512
cap	Cap $100k	1992	10.6	167,283
cap	Cap $100k	1994	10.8	197,604
cap	Cap $100k	1996	10.3	297,838
cap	Cap $100k	1998	11.8	470,028
cap	Cap $100k	2000	10.8	598,971
cap	Cap $100k	2002	12.3	794,413
cap	Cap $100k	2004	9.6	1,033,327
cap	Cap $100k	2006	10.4	1,142,451
cap	Cap $100k	2008	7.7	1,425,885
cap	Cap $100k	2010	9.6	1,409,984
cap	Cap $100k	2012	6.0	1,805,776
cap	Cap $100k	2014	8.2	1,597,010
cap	Cap $100k	2016	6.3	1,978,112
cap	Cap $100k	2018	4.9	2,161,252
cap	Cap $100k	2020	2.3	3,483,649
cap	Cap $100k	2022	3.2	3,082,400
cap	Cap $100k	2024	3.0	2,533,588
side	Left of zero	1980	17.5	10,873
side	Left of zero	1982	18.4	8,659
side	Left of zero	1984	17.4	14,647
side	Left of zero	1986	19.4	15,958
side	Left of zero	1988	17.1	28,380
side	Left of zero	1990	14.1	48,231
side	Left of zero	1992	12.7	77,711
side	Left of zero	1994	13.3	84,483
side	Left of zero	1996	13.8	122,604
side	Left of zero	1998	11.8	214,822
side	Left of zero	2000	11.9	271,239
side	Left of zero	2002	10.7	383,397
side	Left of zero	2004	7.9	544,413
side	Left of zero	2006	7.7	626,498
side	Left of zero	2008	5.8	832,129
side	Left of zero	2010	6.4	787,647
side	Left of zero	2012	3.9	1,143,079
side	Left of zero	2014	4.1	1,034,897
side	Left of zero	2016	2.7	1,369,414
side	Left of zero	2018	1.8	1,652,669
side	Left of zero	2020	1.1	2,633,734
side	Left of zero	2022	1.0	2,294,760
side	Left of zero	2024	0.8	1,916,881
side	Right of zero	1980	8.7	20,254
side	Right of zero	1982	9.0	16,544
side	Right of zero	1984	8.9	24,806
side	Right of zero	1986	9.4	29,244
side	Right of zero	1988	9.8	42,493
side	Right of zero	1990	9.2	63,248
side	Right of zero	1992	9.5	89,526
side	Right of zero	1994	8.7	113,075
side	Right of zero	1996	8.5	175,176
side	Right of zero	1998	8.6	255,107
side	Right of zero	2000	8.4	327,629
side	Right of zero	2002	8.5	410,878
side	Right of zero	2004	7.5	488,759
side	Right of zero	2006	8.0	515,775
side	Right of zero	2008	6.8	593,591
side	Right of zero	2010	6.8	622,156
side	Right of zero	2012	5.7	662,538
side	Right of zero	2014	6.1	561,957
side	Right of zero	2016	5.0	608,559
side	Right of zero	2018	4.8	508,476
side	Right of zero	2020	2.8	849,809
side	Right of zero	2022	2.4	787,550
side	Right of zero	2024	2.1	616,644

Each line counts reliable donors within a different distance of zero, and the green line, labeled Band 0.25, is the chapter's band. The band of 0.10 falls from 4.8% to 0.4%, the chapter's band of 0.25 from 11.8% to 1.2%, and the band of 0.50 from 26.7% to 2.7%. A wider band gives a higher line, so the levels depend on the band.Note: The recipient filter is set once from the donor's whole record: a donor counts as reliable in every cycle in which they gave, including cycles before reaching the minimum number of recipients.Note: Full counts of itemized donors: no sampling interval.Source: Stanford DIME v4.0 (Bonica), election cycles 1980-2024; full counts of itemized individual donors, no weights

A change in the balance between left and right does not explain the fall by itself. Among donors left of zero, the share within 0.25 of zero fell from 17.5% to 0.8%, and among donors right of zero it fell from 8.7% to 2.1%. The counts of donors near zero rose on each side, from 1,898 to 16,234 on the left and from 1,769 to 13,149 on the right, so the fall is in shares.

Dollar-weighted shares depend on the cap. From 2002 on the capped dollar share is above the donor share, and in 2024 it is 2.9 times the donor share, because near-center donors gave more per donor than the others did. The capped share in 2002 is a local high, against 9.6% in 2000 and 8.9% in 2004. Without a cap the share is 24.5% in 2002 and 6.3% in 2024. The cap binds for 456 of the 794,413 reliable donors of 2002 and for 358 of the 2,533,588 of 2024, and this chapter uses the capped series. The dollar share in 2024 is 3.0% with the lower cap of the figure and 3.6% with the higher cap, and both are above the donor share of 1.2%.Without a cap, one record accounts for 55% of the near-center dollars in 2002 and one donor gave 49% in 2024. The record of 2002 is $1.02 billion in 2024 dollars for a single donor, 8.6 times the next-largest near-center total of $118 million, and it is probably an error in the release.

The same score applies to House and Senate candidates of the two major parties, using the dynamic CFscore, which is estimated period by period, so a candidate's score can differ from one cycle to the next. The candidate figures count candidates with a score, who are 86% to 98% of the major-party House and Senate candidates in the file in each cycle and 63% to 92% of those with under $10,000 in receipts. Figure 6 shows the share of candidates with a score within 0.25 of zero. It fell from 13.3% in 1980 to 2.0% in 2020, though not in every cycle: it was 10.5% in 1988 and 12.9% in 1990. The share of seated winners was 16.2% in 1980, 1.5% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2022, the last cycle with winners coded. The candidate share then rose to 2.6% in 2022 and 3.1% in 2024 while the donor share kept falling, so the two lines agree in direction only through 2020. The rise rests on small counts, with 51 of 2,543 candidates in 2020 and 72 of 2,329 in 2024, and among seated winners 7 of 469 in 2020 and 13 of 469 in 2022. The fall is in who ran and raised money, and it does not come only from who won.

Figure 6

The share of federal candidates near the center fell from 13.3% in 1980 to 2.0% in 2020 and was 3.1% in 2024

Percent with a CFscore within 0.25 of zero: reliable donors, House and Senate candidates with a score, and seated winners, by election cycle

Show data

Data for The share of federal candidates near the center fell from 13.3% in 1980 to 2.0% in 2020 and was 3.1% in 2024
Election cycle	Series	Share within 0.25 of zero (%)	Donors or candidates
1980	Donors	11.8	31,138
1982	Donors	12.3	25,207
1984	Donors	12.0	39,460
1986	Donors	13.0	45,211
1988	Donors	12.7	70,902
1990	Donors	11.3	111,512
1992	Donors	11.0	167,283
1994	Donors	10.7	197,604
1996	Donors	10.7	297,838
1998	Donors	10.1	470,028
2000	Donors	10.0	598,971
2002	Donors	9.6	794,413
2004	Donors	7.7	1,033,327
2006	Donors	7.8	1,142,451
2008	Donors	6.2	1,425,885
2010	Donors	6.6	1,409,984
2012	Donors	4.6	1,805,776
2014	Donors	4.8	1,597,010
2016	Donors	3.4	1,978,112
2018	Donors	2.5	2,161,252
2020	Donors	1.5	3,483,649
2022	Donors	1.4	3,082,400
2024	Donors	1.2	2,533,588
1980	Candidates	13.3	1,265
1982	Candidates	9.8	1,349
1984	Candidates	10.7	1,271
1986	Candidates	10.7	1,240
1988	Candidates	10.5	1,271
1990	Candidates	12.9	1,290
1992	Candidates	12.4	1,793
1994	Candidates	11.4	1,787
1996	Candidates	9.4	1,762
1998	Candidates	9.3	1,402
2000	Candidates	8.3	1,443
2002	Candidates	10.0	1,474
2004	Candidates	7.8	1,472
2006	Candidates	7.5	1,525
2008	Candidates	8.3	1,635
2010	Candidates	6.8	2,113
2012	Candidates	5.3	1,957
2014	Candidates	4.3	1,780
2016	Candidates	4.7	1,750
2018	Candidates	2.9	2,336
2020	Candidates	2.0	2,543
2022	Candidates	2.6	2,745
2024	Candidates	3.1	2,329
1980	Winners	16.2	451
1982	Winners	12.1	461
1984	Winners	13.3	459
1986	Winners	13.8	456
1988	Winners	13.2	463
1990	Winners	16.2	470
1992	Winners	13.9	468
1994	Winners	13.4	464
1996	Winners	9.3	452
1998	Winners	10.8	481
2000	Winners	10.0	470
2002	Winners	9.6	478
2004	Winners	9.0	469
2006	Winners	8.4	476
2008	Winners	11.4	474
2010	Winners	7.6	476
2012	Winners	4.7	471
2014	Winners	4.1	468
2016	Winners	3.8	468
2018	Winners	3.1	459
2020	Winners	1.5	469
2022	Winners	2.8	469

The candidate line is lower in 2020 than in 1980 and higher in 2022 and 2024 than in 2020, while the donor line keeps falling. Among candidates with a score the share was 13.3% in 1980, 2.0% in 2020, its lowest value, 2.6% in 2022 and 3.1% in 2024. Among seated winners it was 16.2% in 1980, 1.5% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2022, the last cycle with winners coded.Note: Candidate scores are the dynamic CFscore, estimated from the donors who give to each candidate, so the candidate and donor lines rest on the same giving records. The candidate lines cover federal House and Senate candidates only, and the donor line covers gifts to federal and state recipients.Note: The rise after 2020 rests on small counts: 51 of 2,543 candidates in 2020 and 72 of 2,329 in 2024, and among seated winners 7 of 469 in 2020 and 13 of 469 in 2022.Note: Candidates with a score are 86% to 98% of the major-party House and Senate candidates in the file, by cycle. Candidates without a score are not plotted.Note: General-election winners are not coded for 2024 in this DIME release. Full counts: no sampling interval.Source: Stanford DIME v4.0 (Bonica), election cycles 1980-2024; full counts of federal House and Senate candidates, no weights

One account of the supply of candidates holds that the costs of holding office discourage moderates from running [4]. The DIME candidate file lists candidates who raised money and not people who decided against running, so it cannot test that account.

Party medians moved apart on both scales

Candidate scores and donor scores are estimated from the same giving records, so agreement between the donor line and the candidate line is not evidence from two sources. Figure 7 shows the party medians. The median of Democratic candidates went from −0.43 to −0.96 and the median of Republican candidates from +0.97 to +1.35, so the gap between them grew from 1.40 to 2.31, with the Democratic median moving further. The 75th percentile of Democratic candidates, the edge of the party nearest zero, went from −0.06 to −0.76, from inside the band of 0.25 around zero to outside it.

The other two views use seated members, who won their seats and have a roll-call score. The second view scores them by CFscore and the third by DW-NOMINATE, which comes from roll-call votes and not from donations. The DW-NOMINATE party gap went from 0.63 in 1980 to 0.90 in 2022, but the order of the moves reverses, with the Democratic median going from −0.32 to −0.38 and the Republican median from +0.31 to +0.51. The CFscore medians of the same seated members went from −0.43 to −0.78 for Democrats and from +0.94 to +1.20 for Republicans, so the two scales disagree about which party moved further, and the difference is not one between candidates and winners. This chapter does not settle which scale is right.In 2022 the CFscore and the roll-call score of seated members correlate at +0.95 across both parties, −0.03 among Democrats and +0.52 among Republicans, so most of the pooled correlation is the gap between the parties. Earlier work used contribution records to predict roll-call scores [5]. Chapter 1.2, Polarization in Congress (planned) covers the roll-call record itself.

Figure 7

In CFscores both party medians moved outward, the Democratic median by more than the Republican median

Median score and 25th to 75th percentile range of House and Senate candidates by party, by election cycle; other views: seated members by CFscore and by roll-call votes

CFscore (negative is left, positive is right)

Show data

Data for The parties moved apart on both scales, but CFscores show the Democratic median moving further and roll-call scores the Republican median
View	Party	Election cycle	Median	25th percentile	75th percentile	Candidates or members
cf	Democratic	1980	−0.43	−0.67	−0.06	679
cf	Republican	1980	0.97	0.72	1.12	586
cf	Democratic	1982	−0.56	−0.73	−0.24	730
cf	Republican	1982	0.95	0.73	1.12	619
cf	Democratic	1984	−0.55	−0.72	−0.27	695
cf	Republican	1984	0.96	0.68	1.14	576
cf	Democratic	1986	−0.53	−0.71	−0.25	682
cf	Republican	1986	0.95	0.65	1.15	558
cf	Democratic	1988	−0.53	−0.71	−0.27	705
cf	Republican	1988	0.97	0.66	1.18	566
cf	Democratic	1990	−0.50	−0.72	−0.22	696
cf	Republican	1990	0.94	0.65	1.18	594
cf	Democratic	1992	−0.51	−0.74	−0.20	924
cf	Republican	1992	0.92	0.63	1.17	869
cf	Democratic	1994	−0.52	−0.75	−0.21	876
cf	Republican	1994	0.99	0.70	1.20	911
cf	Democratic	1996	−0.62	−0.84	−0.32	884
cf	Republican	1996	1.01	0.71	1.22	878
cf	Democratic	1998	−0.57	−0.80	−0.32	680
cf	Republican	1998	1.02	0.73	1.24	722
cf	Democratic	2000	−0.59	−0.83	−0.35	695
cf	Republican	2000	1.02	0.74	1.21	748
cf	Democratic	2002	−0.59	−0.79	−0.31	724
cf	Republican	2002	1.00	0.74	1.22	750
cf	Democratic	2004	−0.69	−0.92	−0.38	697
cf	Republican	2004	1.03	0.76	1.25	775
cf	Democratic	2006	−0.74	−0.98	−0.41	829
cf	Republican	2006	1.08	0.81	1.31	696
cf	Democratic	2008	−0.71	−0.98	−0.40	859
cf	Republican	2008	1.09	0.82	1.31	776
cf	Democratic	2010	−0.73	−0.97	−0.43	863
cf	Republican	2010	1.19	0.94	1.39	1,250
cf	Democratic	2012	−0.77	−1.00	−0.47	907
cf	Republican	2012	1.15	0.91	1.36	1,050
cf	Democratic	2014	−0.81	−1.00	−0.53	817
cf	Republican	2014	1.17	0.95	1.36	963
cf	Democratic	2016	−0.84	−1.04	−0.57	851
cf	Republican	2016	1.16	0.94	1.40	899
cf	Democratic	2018	−0.96	−1.08	−0.76	1,404
cf	Republican	2018	1.18	0.92	1.42	932
cf	Democratic	2020	−0.98	−1.07	−0.81	1,370
cf	Republican	2020	1.33	1.11	1.49	1,173
cf	Democratic	2022	−0.98	−1.07	−0.77	1,305
cf	Republican	2022	1.37	1.12	1.52	1,440
cf	Democratic	2024	−0.96	−1.06	−0.76	1,166
cf	Republican	2024	1.35	1.07	1.52	1,163
cfseat	Democratic	1980	−0.43	−0.62	−0.12	249
cfseat	Democratic	1982	−0.51	−0.68	−0.24	279
cfseat	Democratic	1984	−0.45	−0.64	−0.18	259
cfseat	Democratic	1986	−0.45	−0.61	−0.24	265
cfseat	Democratic	1988	−0.47	−0.61	−0.29	272
cfseat	Democratic	1990	−0.43	−0.60	−0.21	284
cfseat	Democratic	1992	−0.46	−0.62	−0.20	277
cfseat	Democratic	1994	−0.43	−0.61	−0.21	219
cfseat	Democratic	1996	−0.50	−0.67	−0.31	207
cfseat	Democratic	1998	−0.49	−0.66	−0.28	232
cfseat	Democratic	2000	−0.49	−0.66	−0.26	224
cfseat	Democratic	2002	−0.50	−0.68	−0.30	220
cfseat	Democratic	2004	−0.53	−0.72	−0.32	217
cfseat	Democratic	2006	−0.59	−0.75	−0.35	257
cfseat	Democratic	2008	−0.54	−0.73	−0.30	276
cfseat	Democratic	2010	−0.56	−0.75	−0.35	207
cfseat	Democratic	2012	−0.66	−0.81	−0.46	226
cfseat	Democratic	2014	−0.61	−0.81	−0.46	197
cfseat	Democratic	2016	−0.65	−0.81	−0.44	205
cfseat	Democratic	2018	−0.75	−0.90	−0.53	254
cfseat	Democratic	2020	−0.77	−0.92	−0.55	237
cfseat	Democratic	2022	−0.78	−0.93	−0.60	222
cfseat	Republican	1980	0.94	0.70	1.08	196
cfseat	Republican	1982	0.88	0.70	1.04	176
cfseat	Republican	1984	0.88	0.66	1.02	195
cfseat	Republican	1986	0.82	0.59	1.00	186
cfseat	Republican	1988	0.82	0.61	1.03	185
cfseat	Republican	1990	0.84	0.60	1.03	182
cfseat	Republican	1992	0.90	0.69	1.07	188
cfseat	Republican	1994	0.99	0.78	1.17	241
cfseat	Republican	1996	1.00	0.76	1.14	235
cfseat	Republican	1998	0.97	0.73	1.12	237
cfseat	Republican	2000	0.98	0.78	1.13	227
cfseat	Republican	2002	0.97	0.75	1.14	248
cfseat	Republican	2004	0.96	0.75	1.13	246
cfseat	Republican	2006	0.99	0.78	1.12	209
cfseat	Republican	2008	1.05	0.85	1.18	190
cfseat	Republican	2010	1.10	0.88	1.22	266
cfseat	Republican	2012	1.07	0.92	1.19	241
cfseat	Republican	2014	1.08	0.93	1.21	268
cfseat	Republican	2016	1.09	0.88	1.19	260
cfseat	Republican	2018	1.11	0.92	1.22	203
cfseat	Republican	2020	1.18	1.02	1.32	227
cfseat	Republican	2022	1.20	1.05	1.37	239
dw	Democratic	1980	−0.32	−0.42	−0.19	249
dw	Democratic	1982	−0.32	−0.42	−0.19	279
dw	Democratic	1984	−0.31	−0.41	−0.19	259
dw	Democratic	1986	−0.32	−0.42	−0.20	265
dw	Democratic	1988	−0.32	−0.42	−0.20	272
dw	Democratic	1990	−0.32	−0.42	−0.19	284
dw	Democratic	1992	−0.32	−0.45	−0.22	277
dw	Democratic	1994	−0.38	−0.47	−0.26	219
dw	Democratic	1996	−0.38	−0.47	−0.29	207
dw	Democratic	1998	−0.38	−0.47	−0.29	232
dw	Democratic	2000	−0.38	−0.46	−0.29	224
dw	Democratic	2002	−0.38	−0.47	−0.30	220
dw	Democratic	2004	−0.38	−0.47	−0.30	217
dw	Democratic	2006	−0.37	−0.45	−0.27	257
dw	Democratic	2008	−0.35	−0.45	−0.26	276
dw	Democratic	2010	−0.40	−0.47	−0.32	207
dw	Democratic	2012	−0.39	−0.46	−0.30	226
dw	Democratic	2014	−0.40	−0.47	−0.32	197
dw	Democratic	2016	−0.39	−0.45	−0.32	205
dw	Democratic	2018	−0.38	−0.45	−0.29	254
dw	Democratic	2020	−0.38	−0.45	−0.30	237
dw	Democratic	2022	−0.38	−0.45	−0.30	222
dw	Republican	1980	0.31	0.22	0.39	196
dw	Republican	1982	0.33	0.23	0.40	176
dw	Republican	1984	0.34	0.24	0.42	195
dw	Republican	1986	0.34	0.23	0.43	186
dw	Republican	1988	0.34	0.23	0.44	185
dw	Republican	1990	0.34	0.23	0.43	182
dw	Republican	1992	0.38	0.26	0.47	188
dw	Republican	1994	0.38	0.28	0.49	241
dw	Republican	1996	0.40	0.31	0.50	235
dw	Republican	1998	0.38	0.30	0.49	237
dw	Republican	2000	0.40	0.31	0.50	227
dw	Republican	2002	0.40	0.30	0.51	248
dw	Republican	2004	0.41	0.32	0.52	246
dw	Republican	2006	0.42	0.33	0.53	209
dw	Republican	2008	0.43	0.34	0.54	190
dw	Republican	2010	0.45	0.35	0.57	266
dw	Republican	2012	0.49	0.38	0.58	241
dw	Republican	2014	0.49	0.37	0.58	268
dw	Republican	2016	0.49	0.38	0.59	260
dw	Republican	2018	0.51	0.42	0.61	203
dw	Republican	2020	0.50	0.40	0.61	227
dw	Republican	2022	0.51	0.41	0.63	239

Lines are party medians and bands run from the 25th to the 75th percentile of each party's candidates. The Democratic median moved from −0.43 to −0.96 and the Republican median from +0.97 to +1.35, so the gap between them went from 1.40 to 2.31. The Democratic 75th percentile, the edge of the party nearest zero, went from −0.06 to −0.76.Note: Bands run from the 25th to the 75th percentile of candidates or members and are not confidence intervals. Full counts: no sampling interval.Note: Roll-call scores (DW-NOMINATE) come with the DIME candidate file for seated members; 2024 winners are not coded.Source: Stanford DIME v4.0 (Bonica), election cycles 1980-2024; full counts of federal House and Senate candidates, no weights

Earlier work found that members of Congress were more extreme than their constituents and that the median voter was leapfrogged when one House gave way to the next [6]. Chapter 14.5, Candidate extremity and vote share (planned) asks whether candidates far from zero lose vote share.

Donors are a small and self-selected group, so the donor pool does not describe voters. As a coarse comparison, Figure 8 places the near-center donor share next to the share of adults who call themselves moderate on the five-point ideology question of the Cooperative Election Study (CES), each scaled to its own 2006 value so that the lines compare relative change. The survey share is weighted, and its interval is a 95% confidence interval built from the effective sample size [7]. The donor share fell from 7.8% in 2006 to 1.2% in 2024, a change of −6.7 points. The survey share was 39.0% (95% CI 38.5% to 39.6%) in 2006, 30.8% (95% CI 30.2% to 31.3%) in 2018 and 35.4% (95% CI 34.7% to 36.1%) in 2024, so it changed by −3.7 (95% CI −4.6 to −2.8) points from 2006 to 2024.

Figure 8

The donor share near the center fell from 7.8% to 1.2% while self-described moderates stayed between 30.8% and 39.0%

Each series as a percent of its own 2006 value: reliable donors within 0.25 of zero (DIME) and adults who call themselves moderate (CES), by election year

Show data

Data for The donor share near the center fell from 7.8% to 1.2% while self-described moderates stayed between 30.8% and 39.0%
Election year	Series	Percent	Index (2006 = 100)	Interval low (index)	Interval high (index)	Donors or respondents
2006	Donors	7.8	100.0	n/a	n/a	1,142,451
2008	Donors	6.2	79.4	n/a	n/a	1,425,885
2010	Donors	6.6	83.6	n/a	n/a	1,409,984
2012	Donors	4.6	58.6	n/a	n/a	1,805,776
2014	Donors	4.8	61.3	n/a	n/a	1,597,010
2016	Donors	3.4	43.5	n/a	n/a	1,978,112
2018	Donors	2.5	32.2	n/a	n/a	2,161,252
2020	Donors	1.5	19.7	n/a	n/a	3,483,649
2022	Donors	1.4	17.8	n/a	n/a	3,082,400
2024	Donors	1.2	14.8	n/a	n/a	2,533,588
2006	Moderates	39.0	100.0	98.5	101.5	34,189
2008	Moderates	35.1	89.8	88.2	91.5	30,436
2010	Moderates	34.8	89.1	87.4	90.8	52,342
2012	Moderates	36.4	93.1	91.5	94.7	50,564
2014	Moderates	37.6	96.3	94.7	98.0	51,022
2016	Moderates	38.1	97.7	96.3	99.1	59,815
2018	Moderates	30.8	78.8	77.3	80.2	54,950
2020	Moderates	33.4	85.5	84.1	87.0	56,208
2022	Moderates	34.5	88.3	86.8	89.8	55,606
2024	Moderates	35.4	90.6	88.8	92.4	56,384

The donor line ends 85% below its 2006 level and the survey line 9% below its own, and the survey line dips in 2018. The donor share fell from 7.8% in 2006 to 1.2% in 2024, and the survey share was 39.0% in 2006, 30.8% in 2018 and 35.4% in 2024. The lines measure different things, a position estimated from giving among people who give and a five-point self-label among adults, and the band around the survey line is a 95% interval.Note: This is a coarse comparison of direction. It does not date the change in either series, because the survey series starts in 2006, after part of the donor fall.Note: The donor line is a full count and has no interval. The survey band is model based (Kish effective sample size) and ignores clustering; it is the interval of the survey share divided by the 2006 estimate, so it leaves out the uncertainty of the 2006 estimate itself.Source: Stanford DIME v4.0 (Bonica), election cycles 2006-2024, full counts with no weights; Cooperative Election Study, election years 2006-2024, weighted with the single-wave survey weight

The two lines measure different things on different scales: a position estimated from giving among people who give, and a label chosen by adults from five options. The comparison shows that, relative to its 2006 level, the donor share fell by 85% and the survey share by 9%, and that the survey share had no steady direction. Its largest move is the fall from 38.1% (95% CI 37.6% to 38.7%) in 2016 to 30.8% in 2018, −7.4 (95% CI −8.2 to −6.6) points, which this chapter does not explain. The comparison does not show which changed first, because the survey series starts in 2006, when the donor share had already fallen from 11.8% to 7.8%, and it does not show that voters are moderate in any absolute sense. Chapter 1.1, Party and ideology follows how party and ideology line up among survey respondents.

What these data cannot show

The figures describe who gave in each cycle. They say nothing about whether any donor's views changed, because DIME fixes each donor's score, and every change over time here is a change in the roster of donors.

The reliable flag is set once from a donor's whole record, and so is the score, which is estimated from giving after the cycle in which the donor is counted as well as before it. A donor who gave in 1980 and reached 8 recipients years later counts as reliable in 1980, while a donor who joined recently has had less time to reach that number, so the early and late pools are selected by different rules. The checks with other recipient filters show that the direction survives, and they do not remove the difference in career length. DIME starts in 1980, so donors first seen in 1980 include people who gave before it.

Only itemized gifts are in the file. Gifts below the itemization threshold are absent, and changes in what gets itemized can change who appears in the pool. The codebook is dated late December 2024 and states coverage through the 2024 cycle without saying how complete the filings of that cycle are, so the 2024 pool may be incomplete. The files hold no recipients, so nothing here says whether a donor gave to one party, to both or to candidates near the middle, and nothing says how much of the entry after 2002 came through online platforms.

A CFscore is an estimate, and the shares carry no allowance for its error. Zero is a point on an estimated scale and not a measured middle of public opinion, so near the center means near zero and does not mean moderate in the sense of a survey answer. Counts of the donors in the release are full counts and carry no sampling interval.

Candidate scores rest on the same records as donor scores, so only the roll-call check and the survey comparison bring in other sources, and the roll-call check agrees with the CFscores on the size of the party gap and not on which party moved further. The donor lines cover gifts to federal and state recipients and the candidate lines cover federal candidates only. Winners are not coded for 2024, and primary results are coded for only part of the candidates in some cycles, so the chapter does not follow candidates through the primary stage.

The data are descriptive. They cannot say whether donors' positions shape which candidates run, whether candidates' positions attract donors, or whether both follow something else, such as the sorting of voters by party. Neither donors nor candidates are a sample of voters.

Data sources

DIMEStanford DIME public version 4.0: individual donors (contributor CFscores, active cycles, itemized dollars) and federal House and Senate candidates (dynamic CFscores, DW-NOMINATE), election cycles 1980-2024Years: 1979-2024 (23 election cycles) · Weights: none (administrative records, no sampling); every itemized donor and every scored candidate counted · License: ODC-BY 1.0, as listed on the Stanford Libraries page (read through a search result, not the license text).
Cooperative Election StudyCooperative Election Study, cumulative common content, five-point ideology self-placement, even election years 2006-2024Years: 2006-2024 (every year; self-reported turnout is available in the 10 even years) · Weights: weight (single-wave survey weight) · License: See the provider's terms of use.

All data sources

Methods

Sample: individual donors (not committees) in the Stanford DIME public version 4.0 with an itemized contribution in at least one of the 23 election cycles from 1980 to 2024 (gifts to federal and to state recipients, which the release puts on one scale), and House and Senate candidates of the two major parties with a dynamic CFscore (federal candidates only; 39,532 candidate records after keeping one record per candidate and cycle, the one with the larger receipts). The candidates with a score are 86% to 98% of the major-party House and Senate candidates in the file, by cycle, and 63% to 92% of those with under $10,000 in receipts; candidates without a score are not in any candidate figure. A reliable donor has given to at least 8 distinct recipients over the whole career and has a score estimated from the donor's own giving, not projected from a recipient's score: 31,138 donors active in 1980 and 2,533,588 in 2024. Every donor counts once in each cycle in which they gave. Estimands: the share of active reliable donors within 0.25 of zero on the CFscore scale (the center), and the share of their itemized dollars within that band (real 2024 dollars, deflated with CPI-U annual averages, each donor's total in a cycle capped at $1 million). A donor's CFscore is one number for the whole career, so a change in a share over time is a change in who is active. The entry and exit decomposition splits each cycle-to-cycle change into donors active in both cycles (fixed scores), donors who left and donors who joined, and averages the two orders of removal and addition; the steps sum exactly to the change from 1980 to 2024. Candidate scores are the dynamic (period-specific) CFscore; seated winners are coded through 2022; roll-call scores are DW-NOMINATE first-dimension scores in the DIME candidate file. Sensitivity: center bands of 0.10, 0.15, 0.25, 0.35 and 0.50; recipient filters of none, 2, 4, 8, 12 and 16 or more distinct recipients; dollar caps of none, $10 million, $1 million and $100,000. Weights: none for DIME (administrative records; every itemized donor and every scored candidate in the release is counted). The Cooperative Election Study share of respondents who place themselves in the middle category of the five-point ideology scale uses the single-wave weight, even election years 2006 to 2024. Intervals: DIME shares are full counts of the records in the release and carry no sampling interval, and they do not carry the estimation error of the CFscores. The CES share has a 95% normal interval on the Kish effective sample size, which is model based and ignores clustering; the 2006 to 2024 difference combines the two standard errors in quadrature. In the comparison figure each series and each survey interval end is divided by the series' own 2006 estimate and multiplied by 100. The pool by period of first gift groups each cycle's active reliable donors by the decade of their first itemized cycle (1980 to 1988, 1990 to 1998, 2000 to 2008, 2010 to 2018, 2020 to 2024). The party-median figure adds the 25th to 75th percentile range of the CFscores of seated members who have a roll-call score. Suppression: a share of donors needs at least 100 donors in its denominator (the smallest plotted group has 8,088 donors, 451 candidates or seated winners and 176 seated members of one party); CES cells need at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of 100. Coverage: winners and primary results are not coded for 2024; unitemized contributions are not in the file; the donor file has no link to recipients. The codebook is dated December 29, 2024 and states coverage of federal elections through the 2024 cycle; it does not say how complete the filings of that cycle are, so the 2024 pool may be incomplete.

References

Bonica, Adam (2024). Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections: Public version 4.0 [Computer file]. Stanford University Libraries, Stanford, CA. data.stanford.edu/dime
Bonica, Adam (2014). Mapping the Ideological Marketplace. American Journal of Political Science 58(2): 367-386. doi:10.1111/ajps.12062
United States Congress (2002). Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002. Public Law 107-155, 116 Stat. 81. www.congress.gov/107/plaws/publ155/PLAW-107publ155.pdf
Hall, Andrew B. (2019). Who Wants to Run? How the Devaluing of Political Office Drives Polarization. University of Chicago Press. press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/W/bo35612049.html
Bonica, Adam (2018). Inferring Roll-Call Scores from Campaign Contributions Using Supervised Machine Learning. American Journal of Political Science 62(4): 830-848. doi:10.1111/ajps.12376
Bafumi, Joseph; Herron, Michael C. (2010). Leapfrog Representation and Extremism: A Study of American Voters and Their Members in Congress. American Political Science Review 104(3): 519-542.
Kish, Leslie (1965). Survey Sampling. John Wiley and Sons.

How to cite

@misc{singh2026theideologyofthedonorpool,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {The ideology of the donor pool},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-ideology-of-the-donor-pool},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}

Reading paths

Money and the map

How donors and candidates are scored

The near-zero share fell and the pool's median crossed zero

The near-zero share fell faster after 2002

Donors who joined account for most of the fall

The fall holds across bands, filters and caps

The candidate share was lower in 2020 than in 1980

Party medians moved apart on both scales

Self-described moderates changed less than the donor share

What these data cannot show

Data sources

Methods

References

How to cite

Reading paths