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    Chapter 4.5

    Health care

    In the ANES the gap between Democrats and Republicans on a government health insurance plan was 24.4 points in 1970 and 46.6 points in 2024, and in the ANES and the GSS the Republican share on the government side was lower from 2010 on than before 1993.

    Affiliation
    NYU Stern
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    In the American National Election Studies (ANES), 71.7%71.7% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 69.0% to 74.3%n2,360Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File of Democrats and 25.1%25.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 22.4% to 27.7%n2,129Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File of Republicans placed themselves on the government side of a seven-point scale from a government insurance plan to private insurance plans in 2024, a gap of 46.6 (95% CI 42.8 to 50.4)46.6 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 42.8 to 50.4n4,489Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. The gap was already 24.4 (95% CI 18.6 to 30.2)24.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 18.6 to 30.2n1,112Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1970SourceANES Cumulative Data File points in 1970, the first study that asked, and its interval lies above zero in all 1616 studiesEstimandcount of ANES study years with VCF0806Weightsnone (count)PopulationANES studies that asked the questionPeriod1970-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File ANES studies that did, so the two parties did not start from agreement. The General Social Survey (GSS) words the question differently, asking whether the federal government should help people pay for doctors and hospital bills, and shows a gap of 17.1 (95% CI 10.8 to 23.4)17.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 10.8 to 23.4n1,236Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod1975SourceGeneral Social Survey points in 1975 and 42.5 (95% CI 36.1 to 48.9)42.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 36.1 to 48.9n1,538Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points in 2024. In the Cooperative Election Study (CES), whose health items begin in 2012, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to give the Democratic-side answer in all 2222 item-yearsEstimandcount of item-years with a plotted party gap, the 2014 ACA repeal item left outWeightsnone (count)PopulationCES health item-years other than the 2014 ACA repeal itemPeriod2012-2021SourceCooperative Election Study item-years other than the 2014 repeal item, by 37.337.3 percentage pointsEstimandsmallest of the 22 item-year party gaps other than the 2014 ACA repeal item (mcare_age, 2019); answer supporting lowering the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 50 (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 35.4 to 39.3n14,659Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2019SourceCooperative Election Study to 68.768.7 percentage pointsEstimandlargest of the 22 item-year party gaps other than the 2014 ACA repeal item (aca_repeal, 2017); answer opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 67.0 to 70.5n14,251Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2017SourceCooperative Election Study points. The 2014 repeal item gives a gap of 69.2 (95% CI 68.2 to 70.2)69.2 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 68.2 to 70.2n44,520Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2014SourceCooperative Election Study points after a recode that is explained below.

    Each question is scored for its government-side answer: the answers nearest the government plan on the ANES scale, the answers nearest government help on the GSS five-point scale and, for the CES, the answer that Democrats give more often (supporting a proposal, or opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act). The ANES cut counts every answer from the government plan up to, but not including, the midpoint as the government side and leaves the midpoint, which 18%18% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share choosing the midpoint (point 4) of the seven-point scale, years pooledInterval95% CI 18% to 19%n38,318Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationANES respondents who answered the government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File of the answers chose, in the denominator. A gap is the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in pointsPercentage pointThe unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused., so a positive gap means that Democrats were more likely to give the answer. Party includes leanersPartisan leanerA respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses., and independents are the respondents who lean toward neither party. Every interval is a 95% confidence intervalConfidence intervalA range around an estimate that would contain the true value in 95% of repeated samples if the sampling model held. The book reports 95% intervals unless it says otherwise.. Democratic, independent and Republican shares are reported separately, because a gap can widen when either party moves.Shares use the survey weights and cover respondents who answered the item: 38,31838,318 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents who answered VCF0806Weightsnone (count)PopulationANES respondents who answered the government health insurance questionPeriod1970-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 1616 studiesEstimandcount of ANES study years with VCF0806Weightsnone (count)PopulationANES studies that asked the questionPeriod1970-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File ANES studies from 1970 to 2024, 39,79839,798 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents who answered helpsickWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS respondents who answered the help-pay questionPeriod1975-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey in 2626 surveysEstimandcount of GSS survey years with helpsickWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS survey years that asked the help-pay questionPeriod1975-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey GSS surveys from 1975 to 2024 for the question on help paying for medical care, and 41,24041,240 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents who answered nathealWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS respondents who answered the health spending questionPeriod1973-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey in 3434 surveysEstimandcount of GSS survey years with nathealWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS survey years that asked the health spending questionPeriod1973-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey GSS surveys from 1973 to 2024 for the question on spending. The ANES asked the scale of only a subsample of respondents in 1972, 1984, 2000 and 2008, reaching 41%41% percent of ANES respondentsEstimandshare of all respondents (2705) who answered the government health insurance scale (unweighted count)n1,112Weightsnone (unweighted count)PopulationANES respondents in 1972Period1972SourceANES Cumulative Data File, 35%35% percent of ANES respondentsEstimandshare of all respondents (2257) who answered the government health insurance scale (unweighted count)n792Weightsnone (unweighted count)PopulationANES respondents in 1984Period1984SourceANES Cumulative Data File, 52%52% percent of ANES respondentsEstimandshare of all respondents (1807) who answered the government health insurance scale (unweighted count)n935Weightsnone (unweighted count)PopulationANES respondents in 2000Period2000SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 45%45% percent of ANES respondentsEstimandshare of all respondents (2322) who answered the government health insurance scale (unweighted count)n1,044Weightsnone (unweighted count)PopulationANES respondents in 2008Period2008SourceANES Cumulative Data File of respondents. Answers of don't know and of not having thought about it are left out. Intervals use the Kish effective sample sizeEffective sample sizeThe number of equally weighted respondents that would give the same precision as the weighted sample. It is smaller than the raw count when the weights vary a lot, and it sets how wide the confidence interval is. [1] and treat the weightedSurvey weightsNumbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight. sample as if respondents had been drawn one by one, which ignores the stages of the sample design. The CES is an opt-in panel, so its intervals rest on a model and say nothing about who chose to join.

    Each survey asks in its own words (Figure 1), so a level in one survey is not comparable with a level in another and no line in this chapter joins two surveys. The ANES scale contrasts a government insurance plan with private insurance. The GSS question asks about the responsibility of the government in Washington for help with medical bills. A second GSS question asks whether the country spends too much, too little or about the right amount on the nation's health, and it mentions neither insurance nor the government's role. The CES asks about named policies, and its spending item concerns state legislatures.

    Figure 1

    Each survey asks about government's role in health care in its own words and on its own scale

    Question wording or file label, answers offered, years used and the answer counted, by survey and item

    SurveyItemQuestion wording or file labelAnswersYears usedAnswer counted
    ANES cumulative fileGovernment against private health insurance (VCF0806)A government insurance plan that would cover all medical and hospital expenses, against medical expenses paid by individuals and private insurance plans; respondents place themselves on a seven-point scale (file label: Government Health Insurance Scale; end points: government insurance plan, private insurance plan).Seven points; haven't thought much is left out1970, 1972, 1976, 1978, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024Points 1 to 3, the government side
    GSSGovernment help paying for medical care (helpsick)In general, some people think that it is the responsibility of the government in Washington to see to it that people have help in paying for doctors and hospital bills. Others think that these matters are not the responsibility of the federal government and that people should take care of these things themselves. Where would you place yourself on this scale, or haven't you made up your mind on this?Five points, 1 government should help to 5 people should help themselves; the midpoint is agree with both1975, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2024Points 1 and 2, the government side
    GSSSpending on the nation's health (natheal)Are we spending too much, too little, or about the right amount on improving and protecting the nation's health?Too little, about the right amount, too much1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2024Too little
    CESRepeal the Affordable Care Act, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017Congress considered many important bills over the past few years. For each of the following tell us whether you support or oppose the legislation in principle. Repeal Affordable Care Act. Would repeal the Affordable Care Act.Support, oppose2012, 2013, 2015, 2017Oppose
    CESRepeal the Affordable Care Act, 2014The Affordable Health Care Act was passed into law in 2010. It does the following: requires Americans to obtain health insurance; prevents insurance companies from denying coverage for pre-existing conditions; allows people to keep current health insurance and care provider; sets up national health insurance option for those without coverage, but allows states the option to implement their own insurance system. Would you vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act if you were in Congress in today?Support, oppose (in the file, code 1 is the Democratic answer in this year; see the text)2014Oppose, after the loader recode
    CESRepeal the Affordable Care Act, 2016Congress considers many issues. If you were in Congress would you vote for or against each of the following? Repeal Affordable Care Act. Would repeal the Affordable Care Act of 2009 (also known as Obamacare).Support, oppose2016Oppose
    CESRepeal the Affordable Care Act, 2018 to 2021Thinking now about health care policy, would you support or oppose each of the following proposals? Repeal the entire Affordable Care Act. (The 2020 and 2021 stems are shortened.)Support, oppose2018 to 2021Oppose
    CESMedicare for All, 2018Thinking now about health care policy, would you support or oppose each of the following proposals? Provide Medicare for all Americans.Support, oppose2018Support
    CESMedicare for All, 2019 to 2021Expand Medicare to a single comprehensive public health care coverage program that would cover all Americans. (The 2019 stem is the health care policy stem above.)Support, oppose2019 to 2021Support
    CESRestore the ACA mandateRestore the Affordable Care Act's mandate that all individuals be required to purchase health insurance.Support, oppose2019, 2020, 2021Support
    CESLower the Medicare ageLower the eligibility age for Medicare from 65 to 50.Support, oppose2019, 2020Support
    CESState spending on health careState legislatures must make choices when making spending decisions on important state programs. Would you like your legislature to increase or decrease spending on the five areas below? Health Care. (2014 and 2020 use shorter forms.)Greatly increase, slightly increase, maintain, slightly decrease, greatly decrease2014, 2016, 2018, 2020Greatly or slightly increase
    Show data
    Data for Each survey asks about government's role in health care in its own words and on its own scale
    answerscounteditemsurveywordingyears
    Seven points; haven't thought much is left outPoints 1 to 3, the government sideGovernment against private health insurance (VCF0806)ANES cumulative fileA government insurance plan that would cover all medical and hospital expenses, against medical expenses paid by individuals and private insurance plans; respondents place themselves on a seven-point scale (file label: Government Health Insurance Scale; end points: government insurance plan, private insurance plan).1970, 1972, 1976, 1978, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024
    Five points, 1 government should help to 5 people should help themselves; the midpoint is agree with bothPoints 1 and 2, the government sideGovernment help paying for medical care (helpsick)GSSIn general, some people think that it is the responsibility of the government in Washington to see to it that people have help in paying for doctors and hospital bills. Others think that these matters are not the responsibility of the federal government and that people should take care of these things themselves. Where would you place yourself on this scale, or haven't you made up your mind on this?1975, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2024
    Too little, about the right amount, too muchToo littleSpending on the nation's health (natheal)GSSAre we spending too much, too little, or about the right amount on improving and protecting the nation's health?1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2024
    Support, opposeOpposeRepeal the Affordable Care Act, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017CESCongress considered many important bills over the past few years. For each of the following tell us whether you support or oppose the legislation in principle. Repeal Affordable Care Act. Would repeal the Affordable Care Act.2012, 2013, 2015, 2017
    Support, oppose (in the file, code 1 is the Democratic answer in this year; see the text)Oppose, after the loader recodeRepeal the Affordable Care Act, 2014CESThe Affordable Health Care Act was passed into law in 2010. It does the following: requires Americans to obtain health insurance; prevents insurance companies from denying coverage for pre-existing conditions; allows people to keep current health insurance and care provider; sets up national health insurance option for those without coverage, but allows states the option to implement their own insurance system. Would you vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act if you were in Congress in today?2014
    Support, opposeOpposeRepeal the Affordable Care Act, 2016CESCongress considers many issues. If you were in Congress would you vote for or against each of the following? Repeal Affordable Care Act. Would repeal the Affordable Care Act of 2009 (also known as Obamacare).2016
    Support, opposeOpposeRepeal the Affordable Care Act, 2018 to 2021CESThinking now about health care policy, would you support or oppose each of the following proposals? Repeal the entire Affordable Care Act. (The 2020 and 2021 stems are shortened.)2018 to 2021
    Support, opposeSupportMedicare for All, 2018CESThinking now about health care policy, would you support or oppose each of the following proposals? Provide Medicare for all Americans.2018
    Support, opposeSupportMedicare for All, 2019 to 2021CESExpand Medicare to a single comprehensive public health care coverage program that would cover all Americans. (The 2019 stem is the health care policy stem above.)2019 to 2021
    Support, opposeSupportRestore the ACA mandateCESRestore the Affordable Care Act's mandate that all individuals be required to purchase health insurance.2019, 2020, 2021
    Support, opposeSupportLower the Medicare ageCESLower the eligibility age for Medicare from 65 to 50.2019, 2020
    Greatly increase, slightly increase, maintain, slightly decrease, greatly decreaseGreatly or slightly increaseState spending on health careCESState legislatures must make choices when making spending decisions on important state programs. Would you like your legislature to increase or decrease spending on the five areas below? Health Care. (2014 and 2020 use shorter forms.)2014, 2016, 2018, 2020
    The ANES names a government insurance plan, the GSS names government help with medical bills or spending on the nation's health, and the CES names policies, and the CES wording of the ACA item changes by year, so levels are not comparable across surveys and no line in this chapter joins two surveys. Each row gives the wording as the survey or its documentation words it.Note: The ANES row gives the file label and the end points of the scale; the full question text was not checked in each study. The GSS wording is from the GSS dictionary and the CES wording is quoted from the guide to the Cumulative CES Policy Preferences file, whose item labels are shorter.Note: The CES health spending item asks about state legislatures, not the federal government. The ANES seven-point item is coded 1 for the government plan in the cumulative file, and the file leaves out the respondents who were not asked the scale: it reaches only a subsample in 1972, 1984, 2000 and 2008.Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1970-2024, General Social Survey dictionary, 1973-2024, and the guide to the Cumulative CES Policy Preferences file, 2012-2021; question wording only, no weights apply

    Two dates are marked on the charts. President Clinton's health plan was proposed in 1993 and did not pass Congress in 1994 [2], and the Affordable Care Act became law in March 2010 [3]. The dates are positions on the axis. Each survey is treated as its own sample, with the ANES panel overlaps described at the end, so a comparison of surveys before and after a date gives the timing of two measurements and does not test whether the event moved opinion. Tesler reports that opinion on health care came to line up with racial attitudes under President Obama [4], and Chapter 5.2, Racial attitudes and ideology tests that with the ANES item used here. Chapter 15.1, Party and place compares the ACA party gap with the gap between deep-red and deep-blue counties, and Chapter 1.3, Sort dates by attitude dates when other attitudes became partisan, so this chapter dates no threshold. The Issues explorer shows the CES gaps by group and place.

    The parties differed before 1993

    Figure 2 plots the gap in every survey year. Before 1993 the ANES gap ran from 16.8 (95% CI 9.7 to 23.9)16.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 9.7 to 23.9n688Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1984SourceANES Cumulative Data File points in 1984 to 30.2 (95% CI 25.8 to 34.5)30.2 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 25.8 to 34.5n1,873Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File points in 1992. Pooled over the studies from 1970 to 1992 it was 24.3 (95% CI 22.3 to 26.3)24.3 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 22.3 to 26.3n9,234Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, with 55.2%55.2% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 53.8% to 56.5%n5,341Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File of Democrats and 30.8%30.8% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 29.4% to 32.3%n3,893Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File of Republicans on the government side. The GSS gap on help with medical bills was 17.3 (95% CI 15.0 to 19.6)17.3 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 15.0 to 19.6n9,983Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1975-1991SourceGeneral Social Survey points pooled over the surveys from 1975 to 1991, with 58.1%58.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 56.6% to 59.6%n5,877Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1975-1991SourceGeneral Social Survey of Democrats and 40.8%40.8% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 39.1% to 42.6%n4,106Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1975-1991SourceGeneral Social Survey of Republicans on the government side. The interval for the gap lies above zero in all 77 studiesEstimandcount of ANES studies from 1970 to 1992 with a party gap, all with an interval above zeroWeightsnone (count)PopulationANES studies before 1993Period1970-1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File ANES studies and all 99 surveysEstimandcount of GSS help-pay surveys from 1975 to 1991 with a party gap, all with an interval above zeroWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS surveys before 1993 with the help-pay questionPeriod1975-1991SourceGeneral Social Survey GSS help-pay surveys before 1993, and in every later one.

    Figure 2

    The party gap on government's role in health care was above zero in every survey that asked about it and larger after 2010 than before 1993

    Democratic minus Republican share on the government side (ANES, GSS help) or saying we spend too little (GSS spending), party identifiers including leaners, 1970 to 2024; 95% intervals

    Democratic minus Republican gap (points)

    Show data
    Data for The party gap on government's role in health care was above zero in every survey that asked about it and larger after 2010 than before 1993
    Survey and answerYearGap (points)LowerUpperRespondents
    ANES: government plan197024.418.630.21,112
    ANES: government plan197218.812.525.0959
    ANES: government plan197624.219.329.21,494
    ANES: government plan197825.120.329.81,596
    ANES: government plan198416.89.723.9688
    ANES: government plan198822.717.927.51,512
    ANES: government plan199230.225.834.51,873
    ANES: government plan199430.725.635.91,470
    ANES: government plan199631.025.736.31,402
    ANES: government plan200024.417.131.6822
    ANES: government plan200432.626.239.1991
    ANES: government plan200832.124.339.9914
    ANES: government plan201241.938.745.14,760
    ANES: government plan201639.836.243.43,294
    ANES: government plan202054.051.356.76,577
    ANES: government plan202446.642.850.44,489
    GSS: government should help197517.110.823.41,236
    GSS: government should help198327.020.533.51,348
    GSS: government should help198417.310.324.21,235
    GSS: government should help198621.415.327.51,233
    GSS: government should help198716.810.722.91,565
    GSS: government should help198811.84.419.3857
    GSS: government should help198916.49.123.8872
    GSS: government should help199012.95.120.7771
    GSS: government should help199114.16.821.4866
    GSS: government should help199320.012.727.3882
    GSS: government should help199427.021.832.21,654
    GSS: government should help199623.818.429.21,539
    GSS: government should help199821.816.327.41,508
    GSS: government should help200029.123.634.71,445
    GSS: government should help200230.522.438.7705
    GSS: government should help200422.514.131.0727
    GSS: government should help200629.223.435.11,498
    GSS: government should help200832.125.338.91,093
    GSS: government should help201039.632.846.41,060
    GSS: government should help201231.824.539.01,017
    GSS: government should help201438.632.944.31,255
    GSS: government should help201643.638.149.11,520
    GSS: government should help201836.529.643.51,203
    GSS: government should help202146.441.551.32,005
    GSS: government should help202238.431.445.41,703
    GSS: government should help202442.536.148.91,538
    GSS: spending too little197313.47.419.51,242
    GSS: spending too little19746.90.713.11,212
    GSS: spending too little197512.46.218.71,225
    GSS: spending too little197611.65.218.11,205
    GSS: spending too little197714.07.720.31,277
    GSS: spending too little197818.511.425.61,247
    GSS: spending too little198021.915.028.91,164
    GSS: spending too little198214.17.320.91,538
    GSS: spending too little198318.712.025.41,345
    GSS: spending too little198423.011.734.2404
    GSS: spending too little198510.91.620.2639
    GSS: spending too little198614.65.923.4614
    GSS: spending too little198715.25.325.2517
    GSS: spending too little19886.7−1.715.1598
    GSS: spending too little198910.72.518.8639
    GSS: spending too little19907.0−1.115.1572
    GSS: spending too little199112.04.019.9631
    GSS: spending too little199317.39.624.9662
    GSS: spending too little199424.718.830.71,234
    GSS: spending too little199621.215.227.21,153
    GSS: spending too little199814.17.920.41,075
    GSS: spending too little200014.88.621.01,068
    GSS: spending too little200216.29.922.41,042
    GSS: spending too little200414.38.520.11,150
    GSS: spending too little200617.811.524.11,130
    GSS: spending too little200815.78.423.0787
    GSS: spending too little201029.221.037.4792
    GSS: spending too little201225.116.234.1752
    GSS: spending too little201425.718.532.9965
    GSS: spending too little201615.48.622.31,129
    GSS: spending too little201823.415.931.0898
    GSS: spending too little202141.736.047.31,467
    GSS: spending too little202229.821.338.41,248
    GSS: spending too little202415.38.222.51,155
    The ANES and GSS help-pay lines, the two questions about government's role, lie above zero in every survey and are higher in every survey from 2010 on than in any survey before 1993, and the spending line, a different question, rises over the same span. A value above zero means Democrats were more likely than Republicans to give the answer. Each line joins survey years, each band is a 95% confidence interval, and the shaded bands mark the dates of the Clinton plan and of the ACA debate and passage, which are positions on the axis and not tests of a cause.Note: The 2012, 2016 and 2024 ANES studies combined in-person and web samples, and the 2020 study had no in-person interviews. GSS interviews were mostly in person through 2018, mostly on the web in 2021, and in both modes in 2022 and 2024. The text and the mode figure check what these changes can do to the lines.Note: The ANES asked the scale of a subsample of respondents in 1972, 1984, 2000 and 2008, so those intervals are wider. The ANES government side is the three points nearest the government plan, and the midpoint stays in the denominator. The GSS asked the spending question of a subsample from 1984 to 1993, so its intervals are wider there. A party cell needs at least 150 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100.Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1970-2024, and General Social Survey, 1973-2024; weighted (weight, VCF0009z; weight_use)

    The gap was larger in each later period on the cut used here. Pooled over the studies of 1994 to 2008 the ANES gap was 30.5 (95% CI 27.8 to 33.3)30.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 27.8 to 33.3n5,599Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1994-2008SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, and pooled over 2012 to 2024 it was 46.8 (95% CI 45.1 to 48.4)46.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 45.1 to 48.4n19,120Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, so the gap changed by +6.2 (95% CI 2.8 to 9.6)+6.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted party gap between windows (Before 1993 to 1993 to 2009; two separate sets of surveys); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 2.8 to 9.6n14,833Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992 to 1994-2008SourceANES Cumulative Data File points from the period before 1993 to the middle one and by +16.2 (95% CI 13.0 to 19.4)+16.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted party gap between windows (1993 to 2009 to 2010 and after; two separate sets of surveys); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 13.0 to 19.4n24,719Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1994-2008 to 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points from the middle one to the last. The second change is larger than the first, and their intervals do not overlap. The GSS help-pay gap was 26.4 (95% CI 24.3 to 28.4)26.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 24.3 to 28.4n11,051Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1993-2008SourceGeneral Social Survey points pooled over 1993 to 2008 and 39.9 (95% CI 37.6 to 42.1)39.9 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 37.6 to 42.1n11,301Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points pooled over 2010 to 2024, changes of +9.1 (95% CI 6.0 to 12.1)+9.1 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted party gap between windows (Before 1993 to 1993 to 2009; two separate sets of surveys); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 6.0 to 12.1n21,034Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1975-1991 to 1993-2008SourceGeneral Social Survey and +13.5 (95% CI 10.4 to 16.6)+13.5 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted party gap between windows (1993 to 2009 to 2010 and after; two separate sets of surveys); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 10.4 to 16.6n22,352Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1993-2008 to 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points. In the GSS the two changes have overlapping intervals, so the data do not rank them. The point estimate of every survey from 2010 on is larger than that of any survey before 1993 in both series.

    The first ANES change depends on where the scale is cut. Counting a narrower government side, the end point of the scale and the point beside it, gives pooled gaps of 22.522.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; pooled over the window's years, government side counted as points 1 and 2 only of the seven-point scaleInterval95% CI 20.6 to 24.4n9,234Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File, 23.923.9 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; pooled over the window's years, government side counted as points 1 and 2 only of the seven-point scaleInterval95% CI 21.4 to 26.4n5,599Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1994-2008SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 39.039.0 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; pooled over the window's years, government side counted as points 1 and 2 only of the seven-point scaleInterval95% CI 37.5 to 40.6n19,120Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points and a first change of +1.4 (95% CI −1.8 to 4.5)+1.4 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted party gap between windows, government side counted as points 1 and 2 only of the seven-point scaleInterval95% CI −1.8 to 4.5n14,833Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992 to 1994-2008SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, an interval that includes zero, and counting every answer up to the midpoint gives a first change of +10.9 (95% CI 7.5 to 14.3)+10.9 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted party gap between windows, government side counted as points 1 to 4 (the midpoint included) of the seven-point scaleInterval95% CI 7.5 to 14.3n14,833Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992 to 1994-2008SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. The second change, the change from the first period to the last, and the fall in the Republican share in each step hold under all three cuts. The GSS changes keep their sign under the two other cuts tested, which narrow the government side to the end answer and which widen it to include the midpoint. The ANES therefore finds a larger gap from 2010 on under every cut and a larger gap in the middle period only on the cut used here.

    Between adjacent surveys the gap moves in both directions, by amounts that single-year samples mostly cannot separate from zero. The interval for the change between adjacent ANES studies excludes zero for 44 pairsEstimandcount of pairs in which the 95% interval of the change in the party gap excludes zeroWeightsnone (count)Populationadjacent ANES studiesPeriod1970-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File of the 1515 pairsEstimandcount of pairs of adjacent ANES studies with a party gap in bothWeightsnone (count)Populationadjacent ANES studiesPeriod1970-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File pairs: 1988 to 1992 (+7.5 (95% CI 1.0 to 14.0)+7.5 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 1992 minus 1988 (two separate samples); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 1.0 to 14.0n3,385Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1988 to 1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File points), 2008 to 2012 (+9.8 (95% CI 1.4 to 18.2)+9.8 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2012 minus 2008 (two separate samples); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 1.4 to 18.2n5,674Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2008 to 2012SourceANES Cumulative Data File), 2016 to 2020 (+14.3 (95% CI 9.8 to 18.8)+14.3 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2020 minus 2016 (two overlapping samples); the 2020 study re-interviewed 2016 respondents and the 2024 study re-interviewed panel respondents, so the interval treats overlapping samples as independent; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 9.8 to 18.8n9,871Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2016 to 2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File) and 2020 to 2024 (−7.4 (95% CI −12.1 to −2.8)−7.4 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2024 minus 2020 (two overlapping samples); the 2020 study re-interviewed 2016 respondents and the 2024 study re-interviewed panel respondents, so the interval treats overlapping samples as independent; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI −12.1 to −2.8n11,066Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2020 to 2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File), a fall. In the GSS it does so for 33 pairsEstimandcount of pairs in which the 95% interval of the change in the party gap excludes zeroWeightsnone (count)Populationadjacent GSS surveys with the help-pay questionPeriod1975-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey of the 2525 pairsEstimandcount of pairs of adjacent GSS surveys with a party gap in bothWeightsnone (count)Populationadjacent GSS surveys with the help-pay questionPeriod1975-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey pairs: 1975 to 1983 (+9.9 (95% CI 0.8 to 18.9)+9.9 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 1983 minus 1975 (two separate samples); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 0.8 to 18.9n2,584Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod1975 to 1983SourceGeneral Social Survey points), 1983 to 1984 (−9.7 (95% CI −19.3 to −0.2)−9.7 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 1984 minus 1983 (two separate samples); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI −19.3 to −0.2n2,583Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod1983 to 1984SourceGeneral Social Survey), a fall, and 2018 to 2021 (+9.9 (95% CI 1.4 to 18.4)+9.9 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2021 minus 2018 (two separate samples); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 1.4 to 18.4n3,208Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod2018 to 2021SourceGeneral Social Survey). Of these 77 pairsEstimandcount of adjacent-survey changes in the party gap whose 95% interval excludes zero (ANES and GSS together)Weightsnone (count)Populationadjacent ANES studies and adjacent GSS help-pay surveysPeriod1970-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File intervals, 55 pairsEstimandcount of those changes whose interval has a bound within the stated number of points of zeroWeightsnone (count)Populationadjacent ANES studies and adjacent GSS help-pay surveysPeriod1970-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File have a bound within 22 percentage pointsEstimanddistance from zero, in points, used to call an interval bound close to zeroWeightsnone (count)Populationadjacent ANES studies and adjacent GSS help-pay surveysPeriod1970-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points of zero, and the intervals ignore the stages of the sample design, so each of these steps is weak evidence taken alone. The GSS gap rose and then fell by similar amounts in adjacent surveys in 1975 to 1984, so the single-year points describe a period better than any one step.

    The Republican share was lower after both dates, and in the ANES so was the Democratic share

    Figure 3 compares the surveys on either side of each date. Around the Clinton plan the ANES gap changed by +0.5 (95% CI −6.2 to 7.3)+0.5 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 1994 minus 1992 (two separate samples); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI −6.2 to 7.3n3,343Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1992 to 1994SourceANES Cumulative Data File points from 1992 to 1994, because the Democratic share changed by −12.1 (95% CI −17.0 to −7.2)−12.1 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, 1994 minus 1992 (two separate samples); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI −17.0 to −7.2n1,822Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1992 to 1994SourceANES Cumulative Data File points and the Republican share by −12.6 (95% CI −17.3 to −8.0)−12.6 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, 1994 minus 1992 (two separate samples); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI −17.3 to −8.0n1,521Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1992 to 1994SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. In the GSS the gap changed by +7.0 (95% CI −1.9 to 16.0)+7.0 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 1994 minus 1993 (two separate samples); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI −1.9 to 16.0n2,536Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod1993 to 1994SourceGeneral Social Survey points from 1993 to 1994, with the Republican share changing by −8.5 (95% CI −15.0 to −1.9)−8.5 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, 1994 minus 1993 (two separate samples); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI −15.0 to −1.9n1,153Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod1993 to 1994SourceGeneral Social Survey points and the Democratic share by −1.4 (95% CI −7.5 to 4.7)−1.4 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, 1994 minus 1993 (two separate samples); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI −7.5 to 4.7n1,383Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod1993 to 1994SourceGeneral Social Survey points. Around the ACA debate the ANES gap changed by +9.8 (95% CI 1.4 to 18.2)+9.8 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2012 minus 2008 (two separate samples); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 1.4 to 18.2n5,674Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2008 to 2012SourceANES Cumulative Data File points from 2008 to 2012, with Republican and Democratic changes of −15.5 (95% CI −21.8 to −9.2)−15.5 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, 2012 minus 2008 (two separate samples); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI −21.8 to −9.2n2,205Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2008 to 2012SourceANES Cumulative Data File and −5.7 (95% CI −11.2 to −0.1)−5.7 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, 2012 minus 2008 (two separate samples); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI −11.2 to −0.1n3,469Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2008 to 2012SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, and the GSS gap changed by +7.5 (95% CI −2.2 to 17.1)+7.5 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2010 minus 2008 (two separate samples); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI −2.2 to 17.1n2,153Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod2008 to 2010SourceGeneral Social Survey points from 2008 to 2010, with changes of −13.8 (95% CI −20.9 to −6.7)−13.8 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, 2010 minus 2008 (two separate samples); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI −20.9 to −6.7n857Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod2008 to 2010SourceGeneral Social Survey and −6.3 (95% CI −12.9 to 0.2)−6.3 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, 2010 minus 2008 (two separate samples); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI −12.9 to 0.2n1,296Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod2008 to 2010SourceGeneral Social Survey points. The GSS 2010 survey was in the field from mid-March to mid-August, and 94%94% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share interviewed after 23 March 2010, the day the Affordable Care Act was signed (interview date has month and day only)Interval95% CI 92% to 95%n1,326Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationGSS respondents who answered the help-pay question in 2010Period2010SourceGeneral Social Survey of the respondents who answered the help-pay question were interviewed after the law was signed in late March.

    The Republican share on the government side was lower after each date in both surveys, with an interval below zero in all four comparisons. The Democratic share was also lower afterward in both ANES comparisons, and its interval for 2008 to 2012 reaches close to zero. The gap's interval excludes zero only for the ANES in 2008 to 2012, and the ANES gap changed little from 1992 to 1994 because the Democratic and Republican shares fell by similar amounts. The 1992 ANES is high for both parties: the Democratic share was 52.3%52.3% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 48.9% to 55.8%n793Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1988SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 1988, 64.2%64.2% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 61.3% to 67.1%n1,068Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 1992 and 52.1%52.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 48.2% to 56.1%n754Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1994SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 1994, and the Republican share was 29.6%29.6% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 26.3% to 33.0%n719Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1988SourceANES Cumulative Data File, 34.1%34.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 30.8% to 37.3%n805Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 21.4%21.4% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 18.1% to 24.7%n716Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1994SourceANES Cumulative Data File, so the change from 1992 to 1994 starts from a high point. The Republican share in 1994 and 1996 (21.4%21.4% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 18.1% to 24.7%n716Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1994SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 21.0%21.0% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 17.3% to 24.6%n596Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1996SourceANES Cumulative Data File) was also below its level in 2000, 2004 and 2008 (29.1%29.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 23.8% to 34.4%n342Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2000SourceANES Cumulative Data File, 28.9%28.9% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 24.4% to 33.4%n455Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2004SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 28.9%28.9% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 22.9% to 34.9%n294Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2008SourceANES Cumulative Data File), so the middle period averages a dip and the fall from before 1993 to that period is not a steady decline. The ANES row for 2008 to 2012 spans the study's addition of a web sample, taken up below.

    Figure 3

    The Republican share on the government side was lower in the survey after each date than in the survey before it

    Change between the surveys that bracket the Clinton plan (1993 to 1994) and the ACA debate and passage (2009 to 2010) in the party gap and in each party's government-side share; leaners included; 95% intervals

    Change in the gap

    Change in the Democratic share

    Change in the Republican share

    Change (percentage points)

    Show data
    Data for The Republican share on the government side was lower in the survey after each date than in the survey before it
    PanelComparisonChange (points)LowerUpperRespondents
    Change in the gapANES 1992 to 19940.5−6.27.33,343
    Change in the Democratic shareANES 1992 to 1994−12.1−17.0−7.21,822
    Change in the Republican shareANES 1992 to 1994−12.6−17.3−8.01,521
    Change in the gapGSS 1993 to 19947.0−1.916.02,536
    Change in the Democratic shareGSS 1993 to 1994−1.4−7.54.71,383
    Change in the Republican shareGSS 1993 to 1994−8.5−15.0−1.91,153
    Change in the gapANES 2008 to 20129.81.418.25,674
    Change in the Democratic shareANES 2008 to 2012−5.7−11.2−0.13,469
    Change in the Republican shareANES 2008 to 2012−15.5−21.8−9.22,205
    Change in the gapGSS 2008 to 20107.5−2.217.12,153
    Change in the Democratic shareGSS 2008 to 2010−6.3−12.90.21,296
    Change in the Republican shareGSS 2008 to 2010−13.8−20.9−6.7857
    Every Republican dot in the lower panel is below zero with an interval that excludes zero, in both surveys and around both dates. The Democratic share also fell in the ANES rows, and the gap's interval excludes zero only for ANES 2008 to 2012. Dots are later minus earlier estimates from two separate samples and lines are 95% confidence intervals; the rows give the timing of two measurements and do not test a cause.Note: The ANES added web interviews in 2012, so the 2008 to 2012 row mixes a change of mode with any change of opinion; the mode figure splits it. The GSS pairs are the closest GSS surveys on each side of the event dates.Note: The 2008 ANES asked the item of a subsample of its respondents, which widens the intervals of the 2008 to 2012 row. The GSS 2010 survey was in the field from March to August, and most of its interviews followed the signing of the ACA in late March.Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1992, 1994, 2008 and 2012, and General Social Survey, 1993, 1994, 2008 and 2010; weighted (weight, VCF0009z; weight_use)

    The Republican share fell in each period and the Democratic share rose in the latest

    Figure 4 shows the shares behind the gaps. In the ANES the Republican share on the government side was 30.8%30.8% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 29.4% to 32.3%n3,893Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File before 1993, 24.9%24.9% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 23.0% to 26.8%n2,403Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1994-2008SourceANES Cumulative Data File from 1994 to 2008 and 17.9%17.9% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 16.9% to 19.0%n8,735Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File from 2012 on, falling by −5.9 (95% CI −8.4 to −3.5)−5.9 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted share between windows (Before 1993 to 1993 to 2009; two separate sets of surveys); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI −8.4 to −3.5n6,296Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992 to 1994-2008SourceANES Cumulative Data File and −7.0 (95% CI −9.2 to −4.8)−7.0 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted share between windows (1993 to 2009 to 2010 and after; two separate sets of surveys); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI −9.2 to −4.8n11,138Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1994-2008 to 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points between periods. The Democratic share was 55.2%55.2% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 53.8% to 56.5%n5,341Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File, 55.4%55.4% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 53.5% to 57.4%n3,196Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1994-2008SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 64.7%64.7% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 63.5% to 66.0%n10,385Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File, and it changed by +0.3 (95% CI −2.1 to 2.7)+0.3 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted share between windows (Before 1993 to 1993 to 2009; two separate sets of surveys); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI −2.1 to 2.7n8,537Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992 to 1994-2008SourceANES Cumulative Data File points in the first step, an interval that includes zero, and by +9.3 (95% CI 6.9 to 11.6)+9.3 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted share between windows (1993 to 2009 to 2010 and after; two separate sets of surveys); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 6.9 to 11.6n13,581Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1994-2008 to 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points in the second. In the GSS help-pay question the Republican share fell from 40.8%40.8% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 39.1% to 42.6%n4,106Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1975-1991SourceGeneral Social Survey to 35.7%35.7% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 34.1% to 37.2%n4,862Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1993-2008SourceGeneral Social Survey to 28.5%28.5% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 26.8% to 30.2%n4,743Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey, by −5.2 (95% CI −7.5 to −2.9)−5.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted share between windows (Before 1993 to 1993 to 2009; two separate sets of surveys); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI −7.5 to −2.9n8,968Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1975-1991 to 1993-2008SourceGeneral Social Survey and −7.2 (95% CI −9.4 to −4.9)−7.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted share between windows (1993 to 2009 to 2010 and after; two separate sets of surveys); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI −9.4 to −4.9n9,605Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1993-2008 to 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, and the Democratic share rose from 58.1%58.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 56.6% to 59.6%n5,877Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1975-1991SourceGeneral Social Survey to 62.0%62.0% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 60.6% to 63.4%n6,189Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1993-2008SourceGeneral Social Survey to 68.4%68.4% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 66.9% to 69.9%n6,558Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey, by +3.9 (95% CI 1.8 to 5.9)+3.9 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted share between windows (Before 1993 to 1993 to 2009; two separate sets of surveys); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 1.8 to 5.9n12,066Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1975-1991 to 1993-2008SourceGeneral Social Survey and +6.4 (95% CI 4.3 to 8.4)+6.4 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted share between windows (1993 to 2009 to 2010 and after; two separate sets of surveys); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 4.3 to 8.4n12,747Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1993-2008 to 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points.

    Over the whole span the ANES Republican share changed by −12.9 (95% CI −14.7 to −11.1)−12.9 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted share between windows (Before 1993 to 2010 and after; two separate sets of surveys); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI −14.7 to −11.1n12,628Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992 to 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points and the Democratic share by +9.6 (95% CI 7.7 to 11.4)+9.6 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted share between windows (Before 1993 to 2010 and after; two separate sets of surveys); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 7.7 to 11.4n15,726Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992 to 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. The fall in the Republican share exceeds the rise in the Democratic share by +3.3 (95% CI 0.8 to 5.9)+3.3 percentage pointsEstimandfall in the pooled Republican share minus rise in the pooled Democratic share, before 1993 to 2010 and after (independent party samples); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 0.8 to 5.9n28,354Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992 to 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, an interval above zero, so the ANES says that the Republican share moved more. The GSS shares changed by −12.3 (95% CI −14.7 to −9.9)−12.3 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted share between windows (Before 1993 to 2010 and after; two separate sets of surveys); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI −14.7 to −9.9n8,849Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1975-1991 to 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey and +10.2 (95% CI 8.1 to 12.3)+10.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted share between windows (Before 1993 to 2010 and after; two separate sets of surveys); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 8.1 to 12.3n12,435Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1975-1991 to 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, and the fall exceeds the rise by +2.1 (95% CI −1.1 to 5.3)+2.1 percentage pointsEstimandfall in the pooled Republican share minus rise in the pooled Democratic share, before 1993 to 2010 and after (independent party samples); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI −1.1 to 5.3n21,284Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1975-1991 to 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, an interval that includes zero, so the GSS does not say which party moved more. In both surveys the Republican share fell in every step and the Democratic share rose in the last step, and the Democratic share rose in the first step in the GSS and not in the ANES. The ANES gap fell between 2020 and 2024 with the Republican share changing by +8.2 (95% CI 5.0 to 11.4)+8.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, 2024 minus 2020 (two overlapping samples); the 2020 study re-interviewed 2016 respondents and the 2024 study re-interviewed panel respondents, so the interval treats overlapping samples as independent; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 5.0 to 11.4n5,234Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2020 to 2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points and the Democratic share by +0.8 (95% CI −2.6 to 4.1)+0.8 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, 2024 minus 2020 (two overlapping samples); the 2020 study re-interviewed 2016 respondents and the 2024 study re-interviewed panel respondents, so the interval treats overlapping samples as independent; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI −2.6 to 4.1n5,832Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2020 to 2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, an interval that includes zero.

    Figure 4

    In the ANES and the GSS help-pay question the Republican share on the government side was lower and the Democratic share higher from 2010 on than before 1993

    Share on the government side (ANES, GSS help-pay) or saying we spend too little (GSS spending), by party identification; leaners are in the parties and independents lean toward neither; all respondents dashed; 95% intervals

    Show data
    Data for In the ANES and the GSS help-pay question the Republican share on the government side was lower and the Democratic share higher from 2010 on than before 1993
    Survey and answerGroupYearShare (%)LowerUpperRespondents
    ANES: government planAll respondents197045.242.447.91,284
    ANES: government planAll respondents197245.542.648.41,112
    ANES: government planAll respondents197644.241.946.61,769
    ANES: government planAll respondents197845.242.947.41,884
    ANES: government planAll respondents198437.834.441.1792
    ANES: government planAll respondents198842.440.044.71,707
    ANES: government planAll respondents199251.649.553.82,140
    ANES: government planAll respondents199438.235.640.81,637
    ANES: government planAll respondents199639.336.642.11,536
    ANES: government planAll respondents200044.440.847.9935
    ANES: government planAll respondents200446.743.549.91,112
    ANES: government planAll respondents200847.543.751.31,044
    ANES: government planAll respondents201235.734.037.45,471
    ANES: government planAll respondents201638.236.440.13,765
    ANES: government planAll respondents202045.043.546.57,352
    ANES: government planAll respondents202449.747.751.84,778
    ANES: government planDemocrats197054.550.858.2697
    ANES: government planDemocrats197252.948.857.1561
    ANES: government planDemocrats197653.650.256.9869
    ANES: government planDemocrats197854.451.357.51,006
    ANES: government planDemocrats198445.039.750.2347
    ANES: government planDemocrats198852.348.955.8793
    ANES: government planDemocrats199264.261.367.11,068
    ANES: government planDemocrats199452.148.256.1754
    ANES: government planDemocrats199652.048.155.9806
    ANES: government planDemocrats200053.548.558.5480
    ANES: government planDemocrats200461.657.066.1536
    ANES: government planDemocrats200861.056.065.9620
    ANES: government planDemocrats201255.352.857.82,849
    ANES: government planDemocrats201656.653.759.41,704
    ANES: government planDemocrats202070.968.873.03,472
    ANES: government planDemocrats202471.769.074.32,360
    ANES: government planIndependents197043.836.251.5162
    ANES: government planIndependents197248.039.956.0148
    ANES: government planIndependents197647.040.753.2257
    ANES: government planIndependents197846.340.452.3272
    ANES: government planIndependents198848.140.855.3183
    ANES: government planIndependents199253.447.359.6257
    ANES: government planIndependents199447.138.555.7161
    ANES: government planIndependents199644.735.154.2129
    ANES: government planIndependents201235.631.040.3696
    ANES: government planIndependents201642.337.047.7458
    ANES: government planIndependents202045.040.249.9755
    ANES: government planIndependents202451.442.760.2267
    ANES: government planRepublicans197030.125.734.5415
    ANES: government planRepublicans197234.229.538.8398
    ANES: government planRepublicans197629.325.733.0625
    ANES: government planRepublicans197829.325.633.0590
    ANES: government planRepublicans198428.223.432.9341
    ANES: government planRepublicans198829.626.333.0719
    ANES: government planRepublicans199234.130.837.3805
    ANES: government planRepublicans199421.418.124.7716
    ANES: government planRepublicans199621.017.324.6596
    ANES: government planRepublicans200029.123.834.4342
    ANES: government planRepublicans200428.924.433.4455
    ANES: government planRepublicans200828.922.934.9294
    ANES: government planRepublicans201213.411.415.41,911
    ANES: government planRepublicans201616.814.619.01,590
    ANES: government planRepublicans202016.915.218.63,105
    ANES: government planRepublicans202425.122.427.72,129
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents197549.947.152.81,453
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents198348.445.251.61,540
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents198445.141.948.31,409
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents198649.446.552.31,427
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents198747.945.150.81,774
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents198848.444.951.9972
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents198955.652.259.11,010
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents199058.755.062.4871
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents199156.853.360.2993
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents199352.649.256.11,026
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents199447.344.849.81,945
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents199648.846.351.31,867
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents199849.046.451.51,849
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents200050.547.953.01,830
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents200251.347.555.1898
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents200454.150.158.0864
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents200652.349.654.91,964
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents200854.050.857.11,331
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents201045.942.549.31,326
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents201245.542.148.91,297
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents201443.140.345.81,640
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents201649.847.052.51,896
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents201852.248.955.41,528
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents202154.151.756.42,627
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents202255.852.659.02,323
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents202453.150.156.12,138
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats197556.752.960.5795
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats198358.754.463.0826
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats198453.048.557.5729
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats198659.555.563.5716
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats198755.952.059.81,009
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats198855.050.060.0473
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats198963.258.268.2471
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats199064.459.169.7411
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats199162.457.467.4447
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats199361.256.366.2483
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats199459.856.263.4900
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats199658.755.062.4861
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats199858.955.162.7847
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats200063.059.266.8804
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats200263.558.069.0405
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats200465.059.370.7397
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats200664.560.668.4839
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats200867.062.771.3653
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats201060.655.765.6643
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats201258.253.463.0627
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats201458.053.962.1746
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats201669.265.572.9914
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats201870.265.974.5676
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats202174.871.778.01,187
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats202274.470.078.7939
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats202473.068.777.3826
    GSS: government should help payIndependents197544.136.551.7200
    GSS: government should help payIndependents198443.434.252.7147
    GSS: government should help payIndependents198645.937.754.1182
    GSS: government should help payIndependents198745.737.354.2188
    GSS: government should help payIndependents198957.948.467.4123
    GSS: government should help payIndependents199356.546.866.2128
    GSS: government should help payIndependents199444.637.451.8228
    GSS: government should help payIndependents199653.947.360.4293
    GSS: government should help payIndependents199851.344.658.1293
    GSS: government should help payIndependents200052.946.958.8339
    GSS: government should help payIndependents200254.545.363.8171
    GSS: government should help payIndependents200656.650.762.4430
    GSS: government should help payIndependents200856.047.964.1207
    GSS: government should help payIndependents201050.642.558.7230
    GSS: government should help payIndependents201248.139.956.2233
    GSS: government should help payIndependents201450.243.956.5335
    GSS: government should help payIndependents201645.338.152.6306
    GSS: government should help payIndependents201849.341.557.2254
    GSS: government should help payIndependents202148.743.653.8531
    GSS: government should help payIndependents202260.053.566.6534
    GSS: government should help payIndependents202455.749.761.6537
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans197539.634.644.6441
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans198331.726.836.6522
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans198435.830.441.1506
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans198638.133.542.7517
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans198739.134.343.8556
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans198843.237.748.7384
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans198946.841.452.2401
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans199051.545.757.3360
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans199148.343.053.6419
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans199341.335.946.6399
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans199432.829.136.5754
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans199634.931.038.9678
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans199837.133.141.1661
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans200033.929.838.0641
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans200233.026.939.0300
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans200442.436.348.6330
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans200635.330.939.6659
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans200834.929.640.2440
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans201021.016.325.8417
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans201226.521.032.0390
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans201419.415.423.4509
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans201625.621.529.7606
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans201833.728.239.1527
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans202128.424.732.1818
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans202236.030.541.4764
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans202430.525.835.2712
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents197362.760.065.41,445
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents197466.363.669.01,426
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents197565.462.768.11,425
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents197663.160.465.91,441
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents197758.255.461.01,454
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents197857.554.360.71,471
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198057.854.661.01,407
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198259.856.862.81,761
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198359.956.763.01,531
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198459.954.765.1465
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198564.460.168.7727
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198660.055.964.0702
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198770.966.475.4589
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198869.365.573.2692
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198970.066.273.7738
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents199073.269.477.0653
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents199170.967.274.6729
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents199375.071.578.5768
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents199466.964.169.61,440
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents199667.564.770.21,394
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents199867.864.970.61,345
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents200071.869.174.51,379
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents200272.870.175.61,336
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents200477.975.380.51,382
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents200673.570.776.21,451
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents200876.573.479.7973
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents201058.754.962.4988
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents201259.755.863.6969
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents201457.554.360.71,240
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents201663.059.966.11,405
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents201870.767.374.11,156
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents202166.063.468.61,966
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents202268.364.871.81,747
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents202473.870.876.71,645
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats197367.163.470.7771
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats197468.164.571.7795
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats197569.566.073.1794
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats197667.363.770.9805
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats197763.059.366.6840
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats197863.559.367.8776
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198066.262.070.5731
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198264.260.368.01,060
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198367.363.171.5820
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198468.761.975.5243
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198569.263.075.4340
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198664.959.470.3363
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198775.670.081.2340
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198872.166.877.5339
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198972.867.478.3345
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats199076.971.582.3288
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats199176.971.882.1325
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats199381.977.386.4357
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats199477.774.281.1705
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats199676.072.279.7628
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats199874.770.878.6607
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats200077.473.681.1612
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats200280.176.284.1570
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats200484.380.887.7613
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats200681.477.785.1654
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats200883.479.587.3479
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats201069.964.775.0458
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats201268.963.774.1476
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats201467.863.472.2581
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats201670.265.974.4663
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats201883.679.587.6498
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats202184.281.187.2868
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats202280.475.885.0719
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats202479.875.284.4622
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents197362.954.071.7139
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents197467.859.176.5138
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents197567.660.275.0186
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents197661.154.168.1228
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents197756.247.764.6161
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents197862.654.271.1210
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents198057.249.165.3232
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents198264.856.772.9204
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents199470.662.678.6168
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents199678.071.684.4215
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents199867.060.073.9236
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents200074.768.980.6283
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents200275.369.181.6255
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents200480.774.686.9211
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents200673.767.380.1289
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents200875.167.383.0162
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents201065.756.774.6168
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents201260.151.169.1187
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents201459.552.167.0230
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents201660.351.968.7230
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents201867.659.575.6213
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents202162.656.968.4411
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents202272.565.879.2421
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents202478.673.284.0429
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans197353.648.858.5471
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans197461.256.266.3417
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans197557.152.062.2431
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans197655.750.361.0400
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans197748.943.854.1437
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans197845.039.350.8471
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198044.338.849.8433
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198250.144.555.6478
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198348.643.453.8525
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198445.736.854.7161
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198558.351.465.2299
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198650.243.457.1251
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198760.452.168.6177
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198865.458.971.9259
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198962.256.068.3294
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans199069.963.975.9284
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans199165.059.070.9306
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans199364.658.570.7305
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans199452.948.157.8529
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans199654.850.159.4525
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans199860.655.865.5468
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans200062.657.667.5456
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans200264.059.168.9472
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans200469.965.374.6537
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans200663.658.568.6476
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans200867.761.573.9308
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans201040.734.347.0334
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans201243.836.551.1276
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans201442.136.447.9384
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans201654.849.460.2466
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans201860.153.866.5400
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans202142.537.747.3599
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans202250.643.457.8529
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans202464.458.970.0533
    In the ANES view the Republican line is 30.1% in 1970, 13.4% in 2012 and 25.1% in 2024, and the Democratic line is 54.5% in 1970 and 71.7% in 2024. In the GSS help-pay view the Democratic line rises and the Republican line falls. In the spending view the Republican line falls only after 2009. Independents lie between the parties. Bands are 95% confidence intervals and the shaded bands mark the dates of the Clinton plan and the ACA debate and passage. The three questions differ, so only direction and timing are comparable.Note: An independent cell is drawn only where it has at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100, so some independent points are missing, in the ANES view in 1984, 2000, 2004 and 2008.Note: The ANES counts points 1 to 3 of the seven-point scale, the GSS help-pay view counts points 1 and 2 of the five-point scale, and the GSS spending view counts the answer too little. The ANES scale was asked of a subsample in 1972, 1984, 2000 and 2008, and the midpoint of the scale stays in the denominator.Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1970-2024, and General Social Survey, 1973-2024; weighted (weight, VCF0009z; weight_use)

    Independents lay between the two parties in all 1212 studiesEstimandcount of studies with all three party cellsWeightsnone (count)PopulationANES studies with Democratic, independent and Republican cells above their floorsPeriod1970-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File ANES studies and all 2121 surveysEstimandcount of surveys with all three party cells, help-pay questionWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS surveys with Democratic, independent and Republican cells above their floorsPeriod1975-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey GSS surveys whose independent cell clears the floor. The independent share in the ANES was 47.8%47.8% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 45.2% to 50.5%n1,378Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationindependents who lean toward neither party who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File before 1993 and 42.1%42.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 39.4% to 44.9%n2,176Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationindependents who lean toward neither party who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File from 2012 on, and in the GSS 49.4%49.4% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 46.3% to 52.5%n1,335Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationindependents who lean toward neither party who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 1975-1991SourceGeneral Social Survey and 51.8%51.8% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 49.4% to 54.1%n2,960Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationindependents who lean toward neither party who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriodGSS 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey.

    The spending question has its own pattern

    The GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health does not mention the government's role or insurance. A majority of Republicans said too little in 2525 surveysEstimandcount of surveys in which the weighted Republican share saying too little is above 50 percentWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS surveys with the health spending questionPeriod1973-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey of the 3434 surveysEstimandcount of GSS survey years with a Republican shareWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS surveys with the health spending questionPeriod1973-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey surveys by point estimate, and the interval for the Republican share lies above a majority in 1919 surveysEstimandcount of surveys in which the 95% interval of the Republican share saying too little lies above 50 percentWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS surveys with the health spending questionPeriod1973-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey of them and below a majority in 44 surveysEstimandcount of surveys in which the 95% interval of the Republican share saying too little lies below 50 percentWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS surveys with the health spending questionPeriod1973-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey. The gap on this question was 13.2 (95% CI 11.4 to 15.0)13.2 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI 11.4 to 15.0n16,069Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriodGSS 1973-1991SourceGeneral Social Survey, 17.6 (95% CI 15.5 to 19.7)17.6 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI 15.5 to 19.7n9,301Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriodGSS 1993-2008SourceGeneral Social Survey and 25.5 (95% CI 22.8 to 28.2)25.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI 22.8 to 28.2n8,406Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriodGSS 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points pooled over the three periods, and its interval lies above zero in 3232 surveysEstimandcount of surveys in which the 95% interval of the party gap lies above zeroWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS surveys with the health spending questionPeriod1973-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey of the 3434 surveysEstimandcount of GSS survey years with a plotted spending gapWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS surveys with the health spending questionPeriod1973-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey surveys. Because it is a different question, its levels are not compared with the help-pay levels.

    The spending question also moves with the period in a way the help-pay question does not. The share of all respondents saying too little was 63.0%63.0% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI 62.1% to 63.8%n18,656Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationall respondents who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriodGSS 1973-1991SourceGeneral Social Survey before 1993, 71.9%71.9% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI 70.9% to 72.8%n11,468Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationall respondents who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriodGSS 1993-2008SourceGeneral Social Survey from 1993 to 2008 and 65.5%65.5% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI 64.3% to 66.6%n11,116Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationall respondents who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriodGSS 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey from 2010 on, changing by +8.9 (95% CI 7.7 to 10.2)+8.9 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted share between windows (Before 1993 to 1993 to 2009; two separate sets of surveys); the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI 7.7 to 10.2n30,124Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationall respondents who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriodGSS 1973-1991 to 1993-2008SourceGeneral Social Survey and −6.4 (95% CI −7.9 to −4.9)−6.4 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted share between windows (1993 to 2009 to 2010 and after; two separate sets of surveys); the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI −7.9 to −4.9n22,584Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationall respondents who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriodGSS 1993-2008 to 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, whereas the help-pay share among all respondents changes by an amount whose interval includes zero in both steps. The Republican share was 54.5%54.5% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI 53.1% to 55.9%n6,094Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriodGSS 1973-1991SourceGeneral Social Survey, 61.9%61.9% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI 60.2% to 63.5%n4,076Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriodGSS 1993-2008SourceGeneral Social Survey and 50.7%50.7% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI 48.5% to 52.9%n3,521Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriodGSS 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey, and the Democratic share rose and then fell, so the spending gap widened in the last period with the Republican share falling by more than the Democratic share. The gap does not settle. It was 29.2 (95% CI 21.0 to 37.4)29.2 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI 21.0 to 37.4n792Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriod2010SourceGeneral Social Survey points in 2010 and 15.4 (95% CI 8.6 to 22.3)15.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI 8.6 to 22.3n1,129Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriod2016SourceGeneral Social Survey in 2016, a change of −13.8 (95% CI −24.4 to −3.1)−13.8 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2016 minus 2010 (two separate samples); the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI −24.4 to −3.1n1,921Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriod2010 to 2016SourceGeneral Social Survey points whose interval excludes zero, and it was 41.7 (95% CI 36.0 to 47.3)41.7 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI 36.0 to 47.3n1,467Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriod2021SourceGeneral Social Survey in 2021, the largest gap in the series, and 15.3 (95% CI 8.2 to 22.5)15.3 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI 8.2 to 22.5n1,155Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriod2024SourceGeneral Social Survey in 2024, a change of −26.3 (95% CI −35.5 to −17.2)−26.3 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2024 minus 2021 (two separate samples); the GSS question on spending to improve and protect the nation's health (natheal), answer too littleInterval95% CI −35.5 to −17.2n2,622Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on spending on the nation's healthPeriod2021 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, also with an interval that excludes zero. The 2021 survey was mostly web, and among web respondents the change from 2021 to 2024 was −18.7 (95% CI −29.7 to −7.7)−18.7 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap among web respondents, 2024 minus 2021 (two separate samples)Interval95% CI −29.7 to −7.7n1,919Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS health spending question, web interviewsPeriod2021 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points. The in-person spending cells in 2022 and 2024 are too small to report, so no in-person survey checks the 2021 value.

    The CES gaps on the ACA and on later proposals

    The CES asked about the Affordable Care Act in every year from 2012 to 2021 (Figure 5). The share opposing repeal was 80.3%80.3% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 79.5% to 81.1%n24,358Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2012SourceCooperative Election Study among Democrats and 23.9%23.9% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 23.0% to 24.8%n19,613Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2012SourceCooperative Election Study among Republicans in 2012, a gap of 56.4 (95% CI 55.2 to 57.6)56.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 55.2 to 57.6n43,971Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2012SourceCooperative Election Study points, and 79.6%79.6% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 78.7% to 80.6%n12,445Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2021SourceCooperative Election Study and 26.6%26.6% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 25.4% to 27.8%n8,139Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2021SourceCooperative Election Study in 2021, a gap of 53.1 (95% CI 51.5 to 54.6)53.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 51.5 to 54.6n20,584Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2021SourceCooperative Election Study points. In the years other than 2014 the gap ran from 51.351.3 percentage pointsEstimandsmallest of the nine yearly party gaps on opposing ACA repeal, 2014 left out (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 49.3 to 53.4n11,417Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES ACA repeal itemPeriod2015SourceCooperative Election Study to 68.768.7 percentage pointsEstimandlargest of the nine yearly party gaps on opposing ACA repeal, 2014 left out (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 67.0 to 70.5n14,251Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES ACA repeal itemPeriod2017SourceCooperative Election Study points. The CES health items begin in 2012, after the law passed, so they cannot show whether the gap on the ACA widened the way the ANES and GSS gaps did. The wording of the repeal question changes in 2014, in 2016 and from 2018, so the lines in the figure join only years with the same wording. Within the 2018 to 2021 wording the Democratic share changed by −5.4 (95% CI −6.5 to −4.2)−5.4 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act, 2021 minus 2018 (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI −6.5 to −4.2n40,030Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2018 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study points, the Republican share by +3.1 (95% CI 1.7 to 4.6)+3.1 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act, 2021 minus 2018 (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 1.7 to 4.6n29,832Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2018 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study points and the gap by −8.5 (95% CI −10.3 to −6.7)−8.5 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2021 minus 2018, answer opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI −10.3 to −6.7n69,862Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2018 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study points.

    Figure 5

    Democrats opposed repealing the ACA more often than Republicans in every CES year, counting 2014 after a recode, with independents between them

    Share opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act, by party identification including leaners, 2012 to 2021; open points are the 2014 and 2016 questions, which are worded differently; 95% intervals from an opt-in panel

    Show data
    Data for Democrats opposed repealing the ACA more often than Republicans in every CES year, counting 2014 after a recode, with independents between them
    GroupYearQuestion worded differently from its neighbours (2014, 2016)Share (%)LowerUpperRespondents
    Democrats2012no80.379.581.124,358
    Democrats2013no73.472.074.97,267
    Democrats2014yes80.079.380.825,595
    Democrats2015no66.164.567.76,584
    Democrats2016yes70.970.271.631,104
    Democrats2017no83.982.785.08,518
    Democrats2018no85.084.485.627,585
    Democrats2019no81.880.783.08,228
    Democrats2020no83.182.583.729,302
    Democrats2021no79.678.780.612,445
    Independents2012no53.952.155.85,890
    Independents2013no37.635.040.22,825
    Independents2014yes34.332.735.98,616
    Independents2015no37.034.139.92,159
    Independents2016yes34.633.335.910,471
    Independents2017no47.244.549.83,161
    Independents2018no53.952.255.68,514
    Independents2019no46.343.549.12,631
    Independents2020no53.051.354.68,839
    Independents2021no49.847.851.84,352
    Republicans2012no23.923.024.819,613
    Republicans2013no12.311.113.65,153
    Republicans2014yes10.810.211.518,925
    Republicans2015no14.813.416.14,833
    Republicans2016yes11.711.112.220,818
    Republicans2017no15.213.916.55,733
    Republicans2018no23.522.724.221,693
    Republicans2019no18.617.419.86,435
    Republicans2020no21.320.522.020,358
    Republicans2021no26.625.427.88,139
    The Democratic line lies above the Republican line in every year and the independent line lies between them. The gap runs from 51.3 to 68.7 points in the years other than 2014, and was 69.2 points in 2014, a year with a different question, after a recode. Lines break wherever the wording changes (2013 to 2014, 2014 to 2015, 2015 to 2016, 2016 to 2017, 2017 to 2018). Bands are 95% confidence intervals that rest on a model, and the points are the answer opposing repeal.Note: The cumulative file labels code 1 as support in every year, but in 2014 that code is the Democratic answer, the opposite of the party pattern in every other year. The loader reverses the 2014 answers, and the open 2014 point is the answer after the reversal; with the stored code the 2014 gap would have the opposite sign. The 2014 question also differs in wording from the neighbouring years, as the wording table shows.Note: The wording is a bill considered in Congress in 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2017, a vote for or against in 2016 and a health care proposal to repeal the entire law from 2018. Each party cell needs at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100. The CES is an opt-in panel, so the intervals rest on a model.Source: Cooperative Election Study cumulative policy preferences, 2012-2021; weighted (single-wave weight), opt-in panel

    The 2014 point needs its own explanation. The cumulative file gives support the same code and label in every year, but in 2014 the code labelled support is the Democratic answer. Read at face value, the stored 2014 answers would make Democrats more likely than Republicans to support repealing the law, by 69.2 (95% CI 68.2 to 70.2)69.2 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share of the stored answer 'support repeal' (code 1, labelled support in every year) if the stored 2014 code is taken at face value (no recode)Interval95% CI 68.2 to 70.2n44,520Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES ACA repeal itemPeriod2014SourceCooperative Election Study points, whereas in the other years Republicans are more likely than Democrats to support repeal, by 51.351.3 percentage pointsEstimandsmallest of the nine yearly party gaps on opposing ACA repeal, 2014 left out (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 49.3 to 53.4n11,417Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES ACA repeal itemPeriod2015SourceCooperative Election Study to 68.768.7 percentage pointsEstimandlargest of the nine yearly party gaps on opposing ACA repeal, 2014 left out (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 67.0 to 70.5n14,251Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES ACA repeal itemPeriod2017SourceCooperative Election Study points. The loader reverses the code for the 55,82955,829 respondentsEstimandcount of 2014 answers reversed by the loader recode (1 minus the stored code)Weightsnone (count)PopulationCES 2014 respondents who answered the ACA repeal itemPeriod2014SourceCooperative Election Study respondents who answered in 2014, and the reversed gap is 69.2 (95% CI 68.2 to 70.2)69.2 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 68.2 to 70.2n44,520Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2014SourceCooperative Election Study points. The guide to the cumulative policy file says that an earlier version of the file applied the same switch of support and oppose to the 2014 answers and that the later version does not, because the 2014 question already asked about repealing the law [5]. The stored counts equal the later version, so the file in use is the one without the switch. What differs in 2014 is the party pattern of the answers and not the label, and the reversal rests on that pattern and on the earlier version's switch, not on a value label that explains it. The 2014 question also differs in wording from the neighbouring years: it describes the provisions of the law and asks how the respondent would vote (Figure 1). The chapter therefore draws 2014 as an open point apart from the lines and uses it in no comparison.

    Figure 6 gives the other CES health items. The Medicare for All gap was 52.2 (95% CI 51.2 to 53.3)52.2 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer supporting Medicare for All (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 51.2 to 53.3n49,269Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2018SourceCooperative Election Study points in 2018 under one wording, and 53.2 (95% CI 51.4 to 55.0)53.2 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer supporting Medicare for All (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 51.4 to 55.0n14,651Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2019SourceCooperative Election Study, 57.8 (95% CI 56.8 to 58.8)57.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer supporting Medicare for All (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 56.8 to 58.8n49,692Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2020SourceCooperative Election Study and 57.9 (95% CI 56.5 to 59.4)57.9 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer supporting Medicare for All (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 56.5 to 59.4n20,584Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2021SourceCooperative Election Study points in 2019, 2020 and 2021 under another. The gap on restoring the ACA mandate was 42.1 (95% CI 40.3 to 43.9)42.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer supporting restoring the ACA mandate (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 40.3 to 43.9n14,650Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2019SourceCooperative Election Study, 43.7 (95% CI 42.6 to 44.8)43.7 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer supporting restoring the ACA mandate (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 42.6 to 44.8n49,682Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2020SourceCooperative Election Study and 41.5 (95% CI 39.9 to 43.0)41.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer supporting restoring the ACA mandate (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 39.9 to 43.0n20,584Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2021SourceCooperative Election Study points in 2019, 2020 and 2021, and the gap on lowering the Medicare eligibility age was 37.3 (95% CI 35.4 to 39.3)37.3 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer supporting lowering the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 50 (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 35.4 to 39.3n14,659Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2019SourceCooperative Election Study and 40.0 (95% CI 38.9 to 41.2)40.0 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer supporting lowering the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 50 (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 38.9 to 41.2n49,674Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2020SourceCooperative Election Study points in 2019 and 2020. On state health spending the gap was 45.4 (95% CI 44.1 to 46.7)45.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer supporting an increase in state spending on health care (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 44.1 to 46.7n39,079Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2014SourceCooperative Election Study, 40.5 (95% CI 39.3 to 41.7)40.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer supporting an increase in state spending on health care (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 39.3 to 41.7n42,805Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2016SourceCooperative Election Study, 45.3 (95% CI 44.2 to 46.4)45.3 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer supporting an increase in state spending on health care (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 44.2 to 46.4n43,404Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2018SourceCooperative Election Study and 49.0 (95% CI 47.9 to 50.1)49.0 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; answer supporting an increase in state spending on health care (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 47.9 to 50.1n43,158Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2020SourceCooperative Election Study points in the four even years. The interval for the gap lies above zero in every item-year, counting 2014 after the recode, and the independent share lies between the parties in every one.

    Figure 6

    Democrats gave the Democratic-side answer more often than Republicans on every other CES health item, with independents between them

    Share supporting each CES health proposal, by party identification including leaners, 2014 to 2021; 95% intervals from an opt-in panel

    • Democrats
    • Independents
    • Republicans
    Medicare for All, 2018 wordingMedicare for All, 2019 to 2021 wordingRestore the ACA mandateLower the Medicare age to 50Increase state health spending
    Show data
    Data for Democrats gave the Democratic-side answer more often than Republicans on every other CES health item, with independents between them
    ItemGroupYearShare (%)LowerUpperRespondents
    Medicare for All, 2018 wordingDemocrats201891.891.392.327,585
    Medicare for All, 2018 wordingIndependents201871.469.873.08,520
    Medicare for All, 2018 wordingRepublicans201839.638.740.521,684
    Medicare for All, 2019 to 2021 wordingDemocrats201978.277.079.48,226
    Medicare for All, 2019 to 2021 wordingDemocrats202087.687.188.229,313
    Medicare for All, 2019 to 2021 wordingDemocrats202188.487.689.212,445
    Medicare for All, 2019 to 2021 wordingIndependents201957.955.160.72,633
    Medicare for All, 2019 to 2021 wordingIndependents202064.763.166.38,850
    Medicare for All, 2019 to 2021 wordingIndependents202164.362.466.34,352
    Medicare for All, 2019 to 2021 wordingRepublicans201925.023.726.36,425
    Medicare for All, 2019 to 2021 wordingRepublicans202029.829.030.620,379
    Medicare for All, 2019 to 2021 wordingRepublicans202130.529.331.78,139
    Restore the ACA mandateDemocrats201958.657.160.08,220
    Restore the ACA mandateDemocrats202061.760.962.629,301
    Restore the ACA mandateDemocrats202159.158.060.312,445
    Restore the ACA mandateIndependents201929.326.731.92,636
    Restore the ACA mandateIndependents202032.230.633.78,848
    Restore the ACA mandateIndependents202128.526.730.34,352
    Restore the ACA mandateRepublicans201916.515.317.66,430
    Restore the ACA mandateRepublicans202018.117.418.820,381
    Restore the ACA mandateRepublicans202117.716.618.78,139
    Lower the Medicare age to 50Democrats201972.371.073.68,228
    Lower the Medicare age to 50Democrats202077.076.377.729,301
    Lower the Medicare age to 50Independents201959.857.062.52,640
    Lower the Medicare age to 50Independents202062.560.964.18,846
    Lower the Medicare age to 50Republicans201935.033.636.56,431
    Lower the Medicare age to 50Republicans202037.036.137.920,373
    Increase state health spendingDemocrats201469.468.470.322,144
    Increase state health spendingDemocrats201672.171.372.924,870
    Increase state health spendingDemocrats201886.786.087.324,096
    Increase state health spendingDemocrats202087.186.587.725,216
    Increase state health spendingIndependents201441.139.342.97,468
    Increase state health spendingIndependents201644.142.645.68,435
    Increase state health spendingIndependents201861.559.763.37,010
    Increase state health spendingIndependents202058.256.560.07,243
    Increase state health spendingRepublicans201424.023.024.916,935
    Increase state health spendingRepublicans201631.530.632.417,935
    Increase state health spendingRepublicans201841.340.442.319,308
    Increase state health spendingRepublicans202038.137.239.017,942
    In every panel and year the Democratic line lies above the independent line and the independent line above the Republican line. The gaps are 52.2 points on Medicare for All in 2018, 43.7 on restoring the ACA mandate in 2020, 40.0 on lowering the Medicare age in 2020 and 49.0 on state health spending in 2020. The Medicare for All wording changes between 2018 and 2019, so the 2018 point stands alone. Bands are 95% confidence intervals that rest on a model.Note: The 2018 Medicare for All question reads provide Medicare for all Americans and the 2019 to 2021 questions read expand Medicare to a single comprehensive public health care coverage program, so the 2018 point is not joined to the later line. The spending item asks about state legislatures and was asked in even years only.Note: Each party cell needs at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100. The CES is an opt-in panel, so the intervals rest on a model. The ACA repeal item is in its own figure.Source: Cooperative Election Study cumulative policy preferences, 2012-2021; weighted (single-wave weight), opt-in panel

    Interview mode changes the reading of the latest movement

    The ANES added a web sample in 2012, the 2020 ANES study had no in-person interviews [6], and the GSS moved to the web in 2021, when 87.3%87.3% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandshare of respondents interviewed on the web (unweighted count)n2,627Weightsnone (unweighted count)PopulationGSS respondents who answered the help-pay question in 2021Period2021SourceGeneral Social Survey of the respondents who answered the help-pay question were interviewed that way. The latest movements in each survey therefore mix any change of opinion with a change of mode. Figure 7 compares like with like where the data allow it.

    In the ANES the gap changed by +9.8 (95% CI 1.4 to 18.2)+9.8 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2012 minus 2008 (two separate samples); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 1.4 to 18.2n5,674Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2008 to 2012SourceANES Cumulative Data File points from 2008 to 2012. Among in-person respondents, the only mode in 2008, the change is +8.2 (95% CI −1.5 to 17.8)+8.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap among in-person respondents, 2012 minus 2008 (two separate samples)Interval95% CI −1.5 to 17.8n2,570Weightsweight_ftf (in-person mode weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance question, in-person interviewsPeriod2008 to 2012SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, an interval that includes zero, and the Republican share among them changed by −11.7 (95% CI −18.9 to −4.5)−11.7 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted Republican share on the government side among in-person respondents, 2012 minus 2008 (two separate samples)Interval95% CI −18.9 to −4.5n825Weightsweight_ftf (in-person mode weight)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) interviewed in person who answered the ANES scalePeriod2008 to 2012SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, an interval below zero. Web and in-person respondents in 2012 differ by +2.5 (95% CI −4.4 to 9.4)+2.5 percentage pointsEstimandweb respondents' weighted party gap minus in-person respondents' gap, 2012 (two separate samples)Interval95% CI −4.4 to 9.4n4,760Weightsweight_web and weight_ftfPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2012SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, and the web minus in-person differences in 2016 and 2024 are −4.9 (95% CI −12.9 to 3.0)−4.9 percentage pointsEstimandweb respondents' weighted party gap minus in-person respondents' gap, 2016 (two separate samples)Interval95% CI −12.9 to 3.0n3,294Weightsweight_web and weight_ftfPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2016SourceANES Cumulative Data File and +1.7 (95% CI −8.0 to 11.4)+1.7 percentage pointsEstimandweb respondents' weighted party gap minus in-person respondents' gap, 2024 (fresh samples; two separate samples)Interval95% CI −8.0 to 11.4n2,588Weightsweight_web and weight_ftfPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. All three intervals include zero, and together they run from −12.9−12.9 percentage pointsEstimandlowest lower end of the three 95% intervals for web minus in-person party gapsWeightsweight_web and weight_ftfPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2012, 2016 and 2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File to +11.4+11.4 percentage pointsEstimandhighest upper end of the three 95% intervals for web minus in-person party gapsWeightsweight_web and weight_ftfPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2012, 2016 and 2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, so they do not rule out a mode difference as large as the rise from 2008 to 2012. The largest step is 2016 to 2020, +14.3 (95% CI 9.8 to 18.8)+14.3 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2020 minus 2016 (two overlapping samples); the 2020 study re-interviewed 2016 respondents and the 2024 study re-interviewed panel respondents, so the interval treats overlapping samples as independent; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 9.8 to 18.8n9,871Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2016 to 2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. The 2020 study has no separate weights by mode, but 2016 web respondents alone give a rise of +15.6 (95% CI 10.6 to 20.6)+15.6 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2020 (all respondents, no mode weights) minus 2016 (web respondents only); the 2020 study re-interviewed 2016 respondents and the 2024 study re-interviewed panel respondents, so the interval treats overlapping samples as independentInterval95% CI 10.6 to 20.6n8,895Weightsweight_web (2016 web respondents); weight (2020)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2016 (web respondents) to 2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File points to all 2020 respondents. That compares one mode with all respondents and cannot separate the 2020 design from a change of opinion. The two samples also share people: the 2020 study includes 2,8392,839 interviewsEstimandcount reported in the ANES 2020 user guide (2,839 re-interviews of the 2016 panel among 8,280 pre-election interviews)Weightsnone (count)Population2020 ANES pre-election interviews that re-interviewed 2016 respondentsPeriod2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File re-interviews of 2016 respondents among 8,2808,280 interviewsEstimandcount reported in the ANES 2020 user guideWeightsnone (count)Population2020 ANES pre-election interviewsPeriod2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File pre-election interviews. From 2020 to 2024 the gap changed by −7.4 (95% CI −12.1 to −2.8)−7.4 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2024 minus 2020 (two overlapping samples); the 2020 study re-interviewed 2016 respondents and the 2024 study re-interviewed panel respondents, so the interval treats overlapping samples as independent; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI −12.1 to −2.8n11,066Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2020 to 2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, and among 2024 fresh web respondents alone the change from 2020 is −4.9 (95% CI −11.1 to 1.2)−4.9 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2024 (fresh web respondents only) minus 2020 (all respondents, no mode weights)Interval95% CI −11.1 to 1.2n8,244Weightsweight (2020); weight_web (2024 web respondents)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2020 to 2024 (web respondents)SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, an interval that includes zero. In 2024, 1,9011,901 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents with a positive CDF weight and neither mode weight (the panel re-interviews)Weightsnone (count)Population2024 ANES Democratic and Republican identifiers who answered the scale and are outside the fresh in-person and fresh web samplesPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File of the 4,4894,489 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents who answered VCF0806 and are Democratic or Republican identifiersWeightsnone (count)Population2024 ANES Democratic and Republican identifiers who answered the scalePeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File partisans who answered the scale come from the panel outside the fresh samples, and the gap among the fresh in-person and web samples alone is 47.0 (95% CI 42.2 to 51.9)47.0 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; fresh samples only (panel re-interviews left out); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 42.2 to 51.9n2,588Weightsweight (VCF0009z)Population2024 ANES Democratic and Republican identifiers in the fresh in-person and fresh web samples who answered the scalePeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, against 46.646.6 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 42.8 to 50.4n4,489Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File for all respondents.

    Figure 7

    The ANES gap was higher in 2020 than among 2016 web respondents, and the in-person GSS gap in 2022 cannot be told from its 2018 level

    Changes in the Democratic minus Republican gap within one interview mode, and web minus in-person differences in the same year; leaners included; 95% intervals

    Change in the gap within or across modes

    Web minus in-person gap, same year

    Change or difference (percentage points)

    Show data
    Data for The ANES gap was higher in 2020 than among 2016 web respondents, and the in-person GSS gap in 2022 cannot be told from its 2018 level
    PanelComparisonEstimate (points)LowerUpperRespondents
    Change in the gap within or across modesANES in person, 2008 to 20128.2−1.517.82,570
    Change in the gap within or across modesANES web 2016 to all 202015.610.620.68,895
    Change in the gap within or across modesANES all 2020 to web 2024−4.9−11.11.28,244
    Change in the gap within or across modesGSS in person, 2008 to 201010.50.220.91,909
    Change in the gap within or across modesGSS all respondents, 2018 to 20221.9−8.011.72,906
    Change in the gap within or across modesGSS in person, 2018 to 2022−6.0−18.96.81,848
    Change in the gap within or across modesGSS web, 2021 to 20244.0−5.813.92,586
    Change in the gap within or across modesGSS spending, web, 2021 to 2024−18.7−29.7−7.71,919
    Web minus in-person gap, same yearANES 20122.5−4.49.44,760
    Web minus in-person gap, same yearANES 2016−4.9−12.93.03,294
    Web minus in-person gap, same yearANES 20241.7−8.011.42,588
    Web minus in-person gap, same yearGSS 202210.9−3.525.21,541
    Web minus in-person gap, same yearGSS 202416.82.830.71,373
    In the top panel the ANES comparison of 2016 web respondents with all 2020 respondents is above zero with an interval that excludes zero. The GSS change from 2018 to 2022 is +1.9 points among all respondents and −6.0 points among in-person respondents, both with intervals that include zero. In the bottom panel only the GSS 2024 difference between web and in-person gaps excludes zero. Dots are estimates and lines are 95% confidence intervals. The 2020 ANES study has no mode weights, so two rows compare one mode with all respondents in 2020, and the 2016, 2020 and 2024 rows share panel respondents, which the intervals ignore.Note: The 2024 ANES mode groups are the fresh in-person and fresh web samples; the panel respondents are in neither. The ANES 2008 study was in person only. GSS in-person rows leave out phone and other interviews, and the 2021 GSS has no in-person group, so the in-person comparison runs from 2018 to 2022.Note: The GSS spending row is the only row about the spending question; every other GSS row is the help-pay question. Cells need at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100 in each party.Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 2008 to 2024, and General Social Survey, 2008 to 2024; weighted (weight_ftf and weight_web, the ANES weights for each mode; weight_use)

    In the GSS the help-pay gap changed by +9.9 (95% CI 1.4 to 18.4)+9.9 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2021 minus 2018 (two separate samples); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 1.4 to 18.4n3,208Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod2018 to 2021SourceGeneral Social Survey points from 2018 to 2021, the survey in which most interviews moved to the web and which has no in-person group. The like-for-like comparison runs from 2018 to 2022, the first later survey with in-person respondents. Among all respondents the change is +1.9 (95% CI −8.0 to 11.7)+1.9 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2022 minus 2018 (two separate samples); the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI −8.0 to 11.7n2,906Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod2018 to 2022SourceGeneral Social Survey points, and among in-person respondents it is −6.0 (95% CI −18.9 to 6.8)−6.0 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap among in-person respondents, 2022 minus 2018 (two separate samples)Interval95% CI −18.9 to 6.8n1,848Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS help-pay question, in-person interviewsPeriod2018 to 2022SourceGeneral Social Survey points. Both intervals include zero, and the in-person interval still allows a rise. The gap among web respondents was 45.545.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 40.2 to 50.7n1,749Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod2021, web interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points in 2021, 43.943.9 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 34.4 to 53.4n782Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod2022, web interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey in 2022 and 49.549.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 41.2 to 57.9n837Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod2024, web interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey in 2024, and among in-person respondents it was 39.139.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 32.1 to 46.1n1,089Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod2018, in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey in 2018 and 33.133.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 22.3 to 43.8n759Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod2022, in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey in 2022. The web gap exceeds the in-person gap in the same survey by +10.9 (95% CI −3.5 to 25.2)+10.9 percentage pointsEstimandweb respondents' weighted party gap minus in-person respondents' gap, 2022 (two separate samples)Interval95% CI −3.5 to 25.2n1,541Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS help-pay questionPeriod2022SourceGeneral Social Survey points in 2022 and +16.8 (95% CI 2.8 to 30.7)+16.8 percentage pointsEstimandweb respondents' weighted party gap minus in-person respondents' gap, 2024 (two separate samples)Interval95% CI 2.8 to 30.7n1,373Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS help-pay questionPeriod2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points in 2024, so the all-respondent GSS series cannot separate the mode from the 2021 move. The rise around the ACA debate appears among in-person respondents, +10.5 (95% CI 0.2 to 20.9)+10.5 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap among in-person respondents, 2010 minus 2008 (two separate samples)Interval95% CI 0.2 to 20.9n1,909Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS help-pay question, in-person interviewsPeriod2008 to 2010SourceGeneral Social Survey points from 2008 to 2010, although the lower end of that interval is close to zero.

    The period comparison does not depend on the web samples. Among in-person respondents alone the ANES gap was 43.0 (95% CI 39.1 to 46.8)43.0 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; in-person respondents only, pooled over the years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 39.1 to 46.8n3,553Weightsweight_ftf (in-person mode weight), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance question, in-person interviewsPeriodANES 2012, 2016 and 2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points over 2012, 2016 and 2024, a change of +18.6 (95% CI 14.3 to 23.0)+18.6 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted party gap from before 1993 to the later period among in-person respondents; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 14.3 to 23.0n12,787Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992 to in-person 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points from the period before 1993. The in-person GSS gap over 2010 to 2018, 2022 and 2024 was 36.8 (95% CI 33.9 to 39.7)36.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; in-person respondents only, pooled over the years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 33.9 to 39.7n6,708Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS help-pay question, in-person interviewsPeriodGSS 2010-2018, 2022 and 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, a change of +19.5 (95% CI 15.8 to 23.2)+19.5 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted party gap from before 1993 to the later period among in-person respondents; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 15.8 to 23.2n16,691Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS help-pay questionPeriodGSS 1975-1991 to in-person 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points.

    The gap widened within age and education groups

    A widening gap among all respondents could come from one kind of respondent. Figure 8 splits the gap by age and education and compares the period before 1993 with 2010 and after. Among all ANES partisans the gap was 24.3 (95% CI 22.3 to 26.3)24.3 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; within the group, pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 22.3 to 26.3n9,234Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance question, all partisansPeriodANES 1970-1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File points before 1993 and 46.8 (95% CI 45.1 to 48.4)46.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; within the group, pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 45.1 to 48.4n19,120Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance question, all partisansPeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points from 2010 on, and in every group of either survey the later interval lies above the earlier one.

    Figure 8

    The party gap was larger from 2010 on than before 1993 in every age and education group

    Democratic minus Republican share on the government side, before 1993 against 2010 and after, by group; party identifiers including leaners; 95% intervals

    • Before 1993
    • 2010 and after
    Show data
    Data for The party gap was larger from 2010 on than before 1993 in every age and education group
    Survey and answerGroupGap before 1993 (points)LowerUpperRespondentsGap from 2010 (points)LowerUpperRespondents
    ANES: government planAll partisans24.322.326.39,23446.845.148.419,120
    ANES: government planUnder 4524.521.827.34,84844.741.847.66,728
    ANES: government plan45 to 6423.920.327.52,76946.243.548.96,749
    ANES: government plan65 or older25.020.229.81,58448.545.551.65,091
    ANES: government planHigh school or less19.316.622.05,35933.930.337.54,301
    ANES: government planSome college26.322.030.51,94044.942.047.86,299
    ANES: government planCollege graduate34.730.438.91,83759.557.361.78,315
    GSS: government should help payAll partisans17.315.019.69,98339.937.642.111,301
    GSS: government should help payUnder 4517.114.020.25,44937.233.341.14,311
    GSS: government should help pay45 to 6418.313.922.72,61539.635.843.33,892
    GSS: government should help pay65 or older17.712.622.81,89143.539.347.72,837
    GSS: government should help payNo bachelor's degree14.211.616.88,13833.830.936.77,109
    GSS: government should help payBachelor's or higher31.426.436.31,83453.450.056.84,181
    Every row moves to the right: in each group the later gap is larger and the two intervals do not overlap. College graduates and holders of a bachelor's degree have the larger gap in both periods. Each dumbbell joins the gap before 1993 (open dot) to the gap from 2010 on (filled dot), and the lines are 95% confidence intervals. The ANES view uses VCF0806 and the GSS view uses the help-pay question.Note: Before 1993 combines the ANES studies of 1970 to 1992 and the GSS surveys of 1975 to 1991; 2010 and after combines the ANES studies of 2012 to 2024 and the GSS surveys of 2010 to 2024. The GSS degree question has no category for some college without a degree, so the GSS view splits at a bachelor's degree.Note: Education groups in the ANES are high school or less, some college and college graduate. Age is measured at the interview. Cells need at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100 in each party.Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1970-2024, and General Social Survey, 1975-2024; weighted (weight, VCF0009z; weight_use); years combined after rescaling each year's weights to average one

    The three age groups have overlapping intervals in both periods and in both surveys. The later ANES gaps are 44.7 (95% CI 41.8 to 47.6)44.7 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; within the group, pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 41.8 to 47.6n6,728Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance question, within the group under 45PeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points in the youngest group, 46.2 (95% CI 43.5 to 48.9)46.2 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; within the group, pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 43.5 to 48.9n6,749Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance question, within the group 45 to 64PeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points in the middle group and 48.5 (95% CI 45.5 to 51.6)48.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; within the group, pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 45.5 to 51.6n5,091Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance question, within the group 65 or olderPeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points in the oldest group, the one at or above the age of Medicare eligibility. Education separates the groups in both periods. In the ANES the gap among people with a high school education or less was 19.3 (95% CI 16.6 to 22.0)19.3 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; within the group, pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 16.6 to 22.0n5,359Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance question, within the group high school or lessPeriodANES 1970-1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File points before 1993 and 33.9 (95% CI 30.3 to 37.5)33.9 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; within the group, pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 30.3 to 37.5n4,301Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance question, within the group high school or lessPeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points from 2010 on, against 34.7 (95% CI 30.4 to 38.9)34.7 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; within the group, pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 30.4 to 38.9n1,837Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance question, within the group college graduatePeriodANES 1970-1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 59.5 (95% CI 57.3 to 61.7)59.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; within the group, pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 57.3 to 61.7n8,315Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance question, within the group college graduatePeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points among college graduates. In the GSS the same order holds between people without and with a bachelor's degree, at 33.8 (95% CI 30.9 to 36.7)33.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; within the group, pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 30.9 to 36.7n7,109Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS help-pay question, within the group no bachelor's degreePeriodGSS 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey and 53.4 (95% CI 50.0 to 56.8)53.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; within the group, pooled over the window's years; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 50.0 to 56.8n4,181Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS help-pay question, within the group bachelor's degree or higherPeriodGSS 2010-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points in the later period.

    Both parties contribute to the education difference in the later period. Among ANES Democrats the government-side share was 57.0% (95% CI 54.2% to 59.7%)57.0% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 54.2% to 59.7%n2,280Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) within the group high school or less who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File with a high school education or less and 72.7% (95% CI 71.0% to 74.3%)72.7% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 71.0% to 74.3%n4,791Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) within the group college graduate who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File among college graduates, and among Republicans it was 23.1% (95% CI 20.8% to 25.4%)23.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 20.8% to 25.4%n2,021Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) within the group high school or less who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 13.2% (95% CI 11.8% to 14.6%)13.2% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share pooled over the window's years; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 11.8% to 14.6%n3,524Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) within the group college graduate who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File. Chapter 3.2, The diploma divide takes up the education divide in vote and party.

    What these data cannot show

    The intervals treat each study as an independent sample, and the ANES has exceptions: the 2020 study includes 2,8392,839 interviewsEstimandcount reported in the ANES 2020 user guide (2,839 re-interviews of the 2016 panel among 8,280 pre-election interviews)Weightsnone (count)Population2020 ANES pre-election interviews that re-interviewed 2016 respondentsPeriod2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File re-interviews of 2016 respondents among 8,2808,280 interviewsEstimandcount reported in the ANES 2020 user guideWeightsnone (count)Population2020 ANES pre-election interviewsPeriod2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File pre-election interviews, and 1,9011,901 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents with a positive CDF weight and neither mode weight (the panel re-interviews)Weightsnone (count)Population2024 ANES Democratic and Republican identifiers who answered the scale and are outside the fresh in-person and fresh web samplesPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File of the 4,4894,489 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents who answered VCF0806 and are Democratic or Republican identifiersWeightsnone (count)Population2024 ANES Democratic and Republican identifiers who answered the scalePeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File partisans who answered the scale in 2024 come from the panel outside the fresh samples. The intervals for changes that involve 2016, 2020 and 2024, and for the mode comparisons that set one mode against all 2020 respondents, treat the samples as independent. If answers by the same person are positively correlated across waves, those intervals are wider than panel-aware intervals would be. A gap can also widen because people change their view, change their party or are replaced by new adults, and the surveys cannot say which. The comparisons around the Clinton plan and the ACA debate use two surveys each, one on either side, and give no read of the months between them; the ANES fields a study only in election years, and the GSS surveys that bracket each date are a year or more apart. They cannot separate the two events from anything else that happened between the surveys, and they say nothing about the cause of the Republican decline in either period.

    The three surveys measure three things. The ANES scale is about insurance, the GSS help-pay question is about the federal government's responsibility for medical bills, and the CES items name policies that were on the national agenda in the years they were asked. A reader should not take the ANES gap, the GSS gap and the CES gap as three estimates of one quantity. The CES health items begin in 2012 and end in 2021, so they have nothing before the ACA passed and nothing for 2022 to 2024. The wording changes for the ACA item in 2014, 2016 and 2018 and for Medicare for All in 2019, and the 2014 answers needed a reversal that rests on the party pattern and on an earlier version of the file, not on a value label. The CES intervals ignore how the panel was recruited. The government side of the ANES scale is also a choice, and the first change between periods depends on it.

    The 2020 ANES study has no mode weights, so the 2016 to 2020 step cannot be split by mode, and the web and in-person comparisons are wide. The ANES asked the scale of a subsample of respondents in 1972, 1984, 2000 and 2008, reaching 41%41% percent of ANES respondentsEstimandshare of all respondents (2705) who answered the government health insurance scale (unweighted count)n1,112Weightsnone (unweighted count)PopulationANES respondents in 1972Period1972SourceANES Cumulative Data File, 35%35% percent of ANES respondentsEstimandshare of all respondents (2257) who answered the government health insurance scale (unweighted count)n792Weightsnone (unweighted count)PopulationANES respondents in 1984Period1984SourceANES Cumulative Data File, 52%52% percent of ANES respondentsEstimandshare of all respondents (1807) who answered the government health insurance scale (unweighted count)n935Weightsnone (unweighted count)PopulationANES respondents in 2000Period2000SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 45%45% percent of ANES respondentsEstimandshare of all respondents (2322) who answered the government health insurance scale (unweighted count)n1,044Weightsnone (unweighted count)PopulationANES respondents in 2008Period2008SourceANES Cumulative Data File of respondents, so the intervals for those studies are wider and the 2008 to 2012 step carries a wide interval. The GSS asked the spending question of a subsample from 1984 to 1993. Neither survey measures how much respondents care about the issue, how they would trade coverage against cost, or what they know about the programs they were asked about, and neither the ANES scale nor the GSS items name Medicare or Medicaid. The group results combine years, so they describe the periods and not any single year, and the groups are cross-sections, not people followed over time.

    Data sources

    • ANES Cumulative Data FileCumulative Data File 1948-2024, government health insurance scale (VCF0806) in the 16 studies from 1970 to 2024; mode weights for 2012, 2016 and 2024Years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study) · Weights: weight (VCF0009z); weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode split · License: Free download after accepting the ANES terms of use; cite the release.
    • General Social SurveyCumulative data 1972-2024: helpsick (26 surveys, 1975-2024) and natheal (34 surveys, 1973-2024); interview mode and interview date joined from the raw fileYears: 1972-2024 (35 study years) · Weights: weight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before) · License: See the provider's terms of use.
    • Cooperative Election StudyCumulative CES policy preferences, five health items 2012-2021, with the loader's 2014 recode of the ACA repeal itemYears: 2006-2024 (every year; self-reported turnout is available in the 10 even years) · Weights: weight (single-wave weight) · License: See the provider's terms of use.

    All data sources

    Methods

    Sample. ANES Cumulative Data File respondents who answered the government health insurance scale (VCF0806: 1 government insurance plan to 7 private insurance plan; haven't thought much about it is missing): 38,318 respondents in 16 studies from 1970 to 2024, of whom 38,125 name or lean toward a party or call themselves independent. The scale was asked of a subsample of respondents in 1972, 1984, 2000 and 2008 (41, 35, 52 and 45 percent of respondents answered it). GSS respondents who answered helpsick (should the government in Washington help pay for doctors and hospital bills, 1 government should help to 5 people should help themselves): 39,798 respondents in 26 surveys from 1975 to 2024. GSS respondents who answered natheal (spending too little, about right or too much on improving and protecting the nation's health): 41,240 respondents in 34 surveys from 1973 to 2024. CES respondents 2012 to 2021 who answered at least one of five health items: 385,461 respondents. The CES itself runs from 2006; its health items begin in 2012. Party and estimand. Leaners count with their party (ANES pid_7pt 1 to 3 Democratic and 5 to 7 Republican, GSS partyid 0 to 2 and 4 to 6, CES pid7_num 1 to 3 and 5 to 7). Independents are the respondents who lean toward neither party (ANES and CES 4, GSS 3); members of other parties are left out. The outcome is the government-side answer: ANES points 1 to 3, GSS helpsick answers 1 and 2, GSS natheal answer 1 (too little), and for the CES the answer that Democrats give more often (opposing repeal of the ACA, supporting Medicare for All, restoring the ACA mandate, lowering the Medicare age, increasing state spending on health care), read from the question wording. The gap is the Democratic share minus the Republican share in percentage points. The ANES midpoint (point 4, 18 percent of answers) stays in the denominator. Cut sensitivity. On the ANES scale the first change in the pooled gap depends on the cut: counting points 1 and 2 only gives pooled gaps of 22.5, 23.9 and 39.0 points and a first change of 1.4 [−1.8, 4.5] points; counting points 1 to 4 gives a first change of 10.9 [7.5, 14.3] points, against 6.2 [2.8, 9.6] with points 1 to 3. The second change, the change from the first period to the last, and the fall in the Republican share in both steps are above or below zero under all three cuts. On the GSS item, counting answer 1 only or answers 1 to 3 keeps both changes in the gap above zero. Weights. ANES weight (VCF0009z); GSS weight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before); CES single-wave weight for yearly estimates. Pooled periods rescale each year's weights to average one so that years count in proportion to their respondents. Periods. The periods follow the two dates in the chapter question and are named by the survey year: before 1993 (ANES 1970 to 1992, GSS help-pay 1975 to 1991, GSS spending 1973 to 1991), 1993 to 2009 (ANES 1994 to 2008, GSS 1993 to 2008) and 2010 and after (ANES 2012 to 2024, GSS 2010 to 2024). The GSS 2010 survey was in the field from mid-March to mid-August 2010, and 94 percent of the respondents who answered the help-pay question were interviewed after the law was signed in late March. The dates are positions on an axis, not tests of a cause. Mode. ANES mode-specific estimates use weight_ftf and weight_web, the weights for in-person and web respondents, which exist for 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024 (2008 was a single-mode in-person study; 2020 has no mode weights). The 2024 mode groups are the newly recruited in-person and web samples; the 1,901 panel respondents among the 4,489 partisans who answered are in neither group. GSS interview mode (in person, phone, web or other) is joined from the raw file and exists from 2004; the in-person GSS rows leave out phone and other interviews, and the 2021 GSS has no in-person group. Mode comparisons compare separate samples. Intervals. 95% intervals come from the Kish effective sample size with a normal approximation, which treats the weighted sample as a simple random sample and ignores strata and clusters. Differences between two estimates (gaps, changes between surveys or periods, mode differences) combine the two standard errors in quadrature, which assumes the estimates are independent. The GSS surveys are treated as independent cross-sections. The ANES pairs are independent except where respondents are re-interviewed: the 2020 ANES study includes 2,839 re-interviews of 2016 respondents among 8,280 pre-election interviews, and in 2024 1,901 of the 4,489 partisans who answered the scale are panel respondents. Changes that involve 2016, 2020 and 2024, and the mode comparisons that set 2016 web respondents or the 2024 fresh samples against all 2020 respondents, therefore overlap in people, and if answers are positively correlated across waves their intervals are wider than panel-aware intervals would be. The 2024 gap among the fresh in-person and web samples alone is 47.0 [42.2, 51.9] points. The CES is an opt-in panel, so its intervals rest on a model and say nothing about who chose to join. Suppression. A Democratic or Republican cell in a yearly series needs at least 150 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100. An independent cell, and every cell of a CES year, mode, period or group estimate, needs at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100. A gap needs both party cells to clear its floor. CES checks. Every CES item-year is checked for the sign of the Democratic minus Republican gap in the Democratic-side answer: the 22 item-years other than the 2014 ACA repeal item have a gap with an interval above zero without any recode. The 2014 ACA item passes only after a recode. The cumulative file labels code 1 as support in every year, but in 2014 that code is the Democratic answer: at face value the 2014 gap in supporting repeal would be Democratic minus Republican 69.2 points, where in the other nine years Republicans are more likely than Democrats to support repeal. The guide to the cumulative policy file says that an earlier version of the file applied the same switch of support and oppose to the 2014 answers and that version 3 does not, because the 2014 question already asked about repeal; the stored counts equal version 3. The loader recodes the 55,829 2014 answers as one minus the stored code and the build asserts that no other year changes. The recode rests on the party pattern and on the earlier version's switch, not on a value label. The chapter draws 2014 apart from the lines because its wording also differs.

    References

    1. Kish, Leslie (1965). Survey Sampling. John Wiley and Sons.
    2. Skocpol, Theda (1996). Boomerang: Clinton's Health Security Effort and the Turn Against Government in U.S. Politics. W. W. Norton.
    3. United States Congress (2010). Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, Public Law 111-148. Approved 23 March 2010. www.govinfo.gov/app/details/PLAW-111publ148
    4. Tesler, Michael (2012). The Spillover of Racialization into Health Care: How President Obama Polarized Public Opinion by Racial Attitudes and Race. American Journal of Political Science 56(3): 690-704. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00577.x
    5. Dagonel, Angelo (2023). Guide to the Cumulative CES Policy Preferences. Harvard Dataverse, Cumulative CES Policy Preferences, version 3 (guide last updated 2023-01-18). doi:10.7910/DVN/OSXDQO
    6. American National Election Studies (2021). ANES 2020 Time Series Study Full Release: User Guide and Codebook. Stanford University and the University of Michigan. electionstudies.org/data-center/2020-time-series-study/

    How to cite

    @misc{singh2026healthcare,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Health care},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/health-care},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
}